Remember Carlos?

here is his latest.

Make sure to check the audio link
(Silva leads the majors in 'you knows' per minute)

what would it take...

... for the first place Twins to win the division?


Here is a realistic (actually pretty pessimistic for the Twins) scenario:

Twins: 65-51

Sun, Aug 10 @ Kansas City (L)
Mon, Aug 11 NY Yankees Perkins (8-3) Ponson (7-2) (L)
Tue, Aug 12 NY Yankees Blackburn (9-6) Mussina (15-7) (L)
Wed, Aug 13 NY Yankees Slowey (8-8) Kennedy (0-4) (W)
Fri, Aug 15 Seattle Liriano (2-3) Silva (4-13) (W)
Sat, Aug 16 Seattle 3:55 PM (W)
Sun, Aug 17 Seattle 2:10 PM (L)
Mon, Aug 18 Oakland 8:10 PM (W)
Tue, Aug 19 Oakland 8:10 PM (W)
Wed, Aug 20 Oakland 1:10 PM (L)
Thu, Aug 21 @ LA Angels 10:05 PM (L)
Fri, Aug 22 @ LA Angels 10:05 PM (W)
Sat, Aug 23 @ LA Angels 9:05 PM (L)
Sun, Aug 24 @ LA Angels 3:35 PM (L)
Mon, Aug 25 @ Seattle 10:10 PM (W)
Tue, Aug 26 @ Seattle 10:10 PM (L)
Wed, Aug 27 @ Seattle 4:40 PM (W)
Thu, Aug 28 @ Oakland 10:05 PM (W)
Fri, Aug 29 @ Oakland 10:05 PM (L)
Sat, Aug 30 @ Oakland 9:05 PM (W)
Sun, Aug 31 @ Oakland 4:05 PM (W)
Tue, Sep 2 @ Toronto 7:07 PM (L)
Wed, Sep 3 @ Toronto 7:07 PM (W)
Thu, Sep 4 @ Toronto 7:07 PM (L)
Fri, Sep 5 Detroit 8:10 PM (W)
Sat, Sep 6 Detroit 3:55 PM (L)
Sun, Sep 7 Detroit 2:10 PM (W)
Tue, Sep 9 Kansas City 8:10 PM (W)
Wed, Sep 10 Kansas City 8:10 PM (W)
Thu, Sep 11 Kansas City 1:10 PM (L)
Fri, Sep 12 @ Baltimore 7:05 PM (W)
Sat, Sep 13 @ Baltimore 7:05 PM (W)
Sun, Sep 14 @ Baltimore 1:35 PM (L)
Mon, Sep 15 @ Cleveland 7:05 PM (W)
Tue, Sep 16 @ Cleveland 7:05 PM (L)
Wed, Sep 17 @ Cleveland 7:05 PM (W)
Thu, Sep 18 @ Tampa Bay 7:10 PM (W)
Fri, Sep 19 @ Tampa Bay 7:10 PM (L)
Sat, Sep 20 @ Tampa Bay 7:10 PM (L)
Sun, Sep 21 @ Tampa Bay 1:40 PM (L)
Tue, Sep 23 White Sox 8:10 PM (W)
Wed, Sep 24 White Sox 8:10 PM (W)
Thu, Sep 25 White Sox 8:10 PM (L)
Fri, Sep 26 Kansas City 8:10 PM (W)
Sat, Sep 27 Kansas City 7:10 PM (W)
Sun, Sep 28 Kansas City 2:10 PM (W)

Total: 91-71

ChiSox: 64-51

Sun, Aug 10 Boston 2:05 PM (W)
Mon, Aug 11 Boston 8:11 PM (L)
Tue, Aug 12 Kansas City 8:11 PM (W)
Wed, Aug 13 Kansas City 8:11 PM (W)
Thu, Aug 14 Kansas City 2:05 PM (L)
Fri, Aug 15 @ Oakland 10:05 PM (L)
Sat, Aug 16 @ Oakland 3:55 PM (W)
Sun, Aug 17 @ Oakland 4:05 PM (L)
Mon, Aug 18 Seattle 8:11 PM (W)
Tue, Aug 19 Seattle 8:11 PM (W)
Wed, Aug 20 Seattle 2:05 PM (L)
Fri, Aug 22 Tampa Bay 8:11 PM (W)
Sat, Aug 23 Tampa Bay 3:55 PM (L)
Sun, Aug 24 Tampa Bay 2:05 PM (W)
Mon, Aug 25 @ Baltimore 7:05 PM (W)
Tue, Aug 26 @ Baltimore 7:05 PM (L)
Wed, Aug 27 @ Baltimore 7:05 PM (W)
Fri, Aug 29 @ Boston 7:05 PM (L)
Sat, Aug 30 @ Boston 7:05 PM (W)
Sun, Aug 31 @ Boston 1:35 PM (L)
Mon, Sep 1 @ Cleveland 7:05 PM (W)
Tue, Sep 2 @ Cleveland 7:05 PM (W)
Wed, Sep 3 @ Cleveland 12:05 PM (L)
Fri, Sep 5 LA Angels 8:11 PM (W)
Sat, Sep 6 LA Angels 7:05 PM (L)
Sun, Sep 7 LA Angels 2:05 PM (W)
Mon, Sep 8 Toronto 8:11 PM (W)
Tue, Sep 9 Toronto 8:11 PM (L)
Wed, Sep 10 Toronto 8:11 PM (W)
Thu, Sep 11 Toronto 8:11 PM (W)
Fri, Sep 12 Detroit 8:11 PM (W)
Sat, Sep 13 Detroit 7:05 PM (L)
Sun, Sep 14 Detroit 2:05 PM (W)
Mon, Sep 15 @ NY Yankees 7:05 PM (L)
Tue, Sep 16 @ NY Yankees 7:05 PM (L)
Wed, Sep 17 @ NY Yankees 7:05 PM (W)
Thu, Sep 18 @ NY Yankees 7:05 PM (L)
Fri, Sep 19 @ Kansas City 8:10 PM (W)
Sat, Sep 20 @ Kansas City 7:10 PM (L)
Sun, Sep 21 @ Kansas City 2:10 PM (W)
Tue, Sep 23 @ Minnesota 8:10 PM (L)
Wed, Sep 24 @ Minnesota 8:10 PM (L)
Thu, Sep 25 @ Minnesota 8:10 PM (W)
Fri, Sep 26 Cleveland 8:11 PM (W)
Sat, Sep 27 Cleveland TBA (L)
Sun, Sep 28 Cleveland 2:05 PM (W)

Total 90-72

Who should be the Twins lead off man?

With Gomez as the leadoff batter, the Twins are 52-38 (.577). With Span as the leadoff batter, the Twins are 8-9 (.471)

The best arm in the Twins minor league system

For years the Twins minor league system has been rich in pitching prospects, resulting in the current rotation of the young brothers at arms of the major league team.

There is a new crop of pitching prospects in the minors, waiting for the opportunity to knock, be it a trade of one of the young major league starters (like Garza's trade last post season) or a vacancy in the pen.

Who of all of those prospects has the best potential in the organization?

It is not Anthony Swarzak, who seemed rejuvenated in Rochester, after a luck laster performance in New Britain. It is not even one the twin closer duo of Robert Delaney (1.46 ERA 0.86 WHIP 7 BB 64 K in 55.2 innings in A+ and AA) and Anthony Slama (0.89 ERA 0.93 WHIP 21 BB 92 K in 61 innings in A+). How about the resurrected Jose Mijares of 1.54 ERA 0.99 WHIP 5 K 26 BB in 23.1 innings in Gulf Coast, Ft. Myers and New Britain. No. Tyler Robertson (2.72 ERA 1.32 WHIP 31 BB 73 K 82.2 innings in Ft Myers?) No. His teammate Cole DeVries (2.85 ERA 1.30 35 BB 96 K WHIP 126.1 innings?) Not quite. How about the recent draft pick with the name made for the bigs, Shooter Hunt ( 1.95 ERA 0.96 WHIP 18 BB 55 K 32.1 innings in Gulf Coast and Beloit?) No, not yet. Ok, how about the crown jewel of the Santana trade Deolis Guerra? He changed his delivery and has 4.75 ERA 1.53 WHIP with 57 BB and 58 K in 113.2 innings in Ft. Myers. Hard time finding the plate this year, but it's close because the pitcher with the best potential in the Twins' minors system is:

Guerra

not Deolis but Pedro Guerra

I am sure that most Twins' fans do not know that there is a Pedro Guerra in the Twins system. Who is he?

He is a 18 year old righty kid, in his second year as a starter in the Dominican League Twins. He has a 2.05 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in 70.2 innings accompanied by only 9 BB and 63 K. Has given only 3 home runs for the season.

Now you have it.

As a matter of fact, the best rotation in the Twins system is not in the majors or in Ft. Myers. It is in the Dominican:

Pedro Guerra, RHP, 18, 2.05 ERA 0.94 WHIP, 7-2
Eliecer Cardenas, RHP, 21, 1.84 ERA 1.01 WHIP 5-1
Ramon Acosta, RHP, 21, 0.00 ERA 0.64 WHIP 5-0 (*)
Adrian Salcedo, RHP, 17, 1.60 ERA 0.79 WHIP 2-4
Orlando Villaroel, RHP, 18, 2.34 ERA 1.32 WHIP 3-4

I hope that the kids in the Dominican get a little more exposure in the future, because they truly deserve it


(* by far the best ERA in the organization and I could have easily picked him instead of Guerra; however, he is 3 years older and last season was not the best for him. I'd love to see him in Ft. Myers next season)

Crazy waiver days...

Yesterday the Red Sox claimed Brian Giles from the Padres to block him from going to the Rays.

Today there is word out of Frisco, that several teams claimed Huston Street. Do you think?

Keeping track of the reliever market:

I will be keeping track of the available relievers here and update it as news come


Cleared waivers:

Scott Schoeneweis (LHP, 3.02 ERA, 1.286 WHIP; due remainder of $3.6M 2008 and $3.6M 2009 - Mets)

Duaner Sanchez (RHP, 3.83 ERA, 1.277 WHIP; due remainder of $850K 2008- Mets)


DFA:

Chad Paronto (RHP, 4.35 ERA, 1.271 WHIP; due remainder of $500K 2008- Astros)

Al Reyes (RHP 4.37 ERA, 1.368 WHIP; due remainder of $2.3M 2008 - Rays)

Handling with kid gloves?

Pitcher abuse points and ranking in the ML for the Twins' starters this season:

20. Livan Hernandez 20676
116. Scott Baker 1962
118. Kevin Slowey 1874
143. Nick Blackburn 584
151. Glen Perkins 415
172. Boof Bonser 92
233. Francisco Liriano 0

The Twins are in first place after 2 months!

Great win today, with Span and Harris both going deep and Liriano pitching 6 scoreless innings. His velocity is in the low 90s but his slider is sharp. The control could be a bit better, but a very encouraging 1st comeback start. The White Sox got hit hard in KC, in a game that featured 5 ejections and 2 brawls.

In other news, Livan Hernadez' ERA is about to skyrocket mile high

Finally...

The Twins' front office made up for the lack of activity in July, by bringing up Fransisco Liriano and Randy Ruiz as the first order of business in August.

The Liriano call up was expected. What was not expected was that Randy Ruiz is finally given a chance to show what he can do in the majors, after he crushed the competition at every year in the minors.

Randy Ruiz is free!

Update: Ruiz is slated to start against Cleveland tonight at DH

Proposed Solutions: 1. hitting against LHP

Yesterday I described 5 problems that might derail the Twins' season. Here I am trying to tackle a solution for the first of them: Inadequate batting against LHP.

This problem was obvious and identified before the winning streak and even with the winning streak, the numbers have not changed much. The solution is fairly straight forward: add a bat or two, but where? If you look at the current starters, there are 3 potential places that a strong bat against lefties can be added, which will make a difference:

a. Third base:

Here are how the players used at third base this season are batting against LHP (BA/OBP/SLG):

Lamb: .074/.107/.185
Buscher: .118/.118/.118
Harris: .242/.289/.352
Macri: .409/.409/.591


b. Short stop:

Here are how the players used at SS this season are batting against LHP (BA/OBP/SLG):


Harris: .242/.289/.352
Punto: .333/.348/.444 (not sure how sustainable that is)


b. Designated hitter:

Here are how the players used at DH this season are batting against LHP (BA/OBP/SLG):


Monroe: .122/.217/.216
Kubel: .157/.279/.235


Based on the above, the priorities would be: DH, 3B, SS. The proposed solution to this problem would also solve part of problem 4 (the 25- and 40-man rosters and the minor league rosters are a mess.) Who is available at these positions that can make a difference for the Twins?


DH
This weakness was identified here in early April. Clearly, the Twins front office passed on a couple of opportunities to replace Monroe with another RHB to platoon with Kubel as DH against LHP. The first of these opportunities was Frank Thomas, early in the season, and it was not clear whether Monroe would rebound or whether Thomas was willing to be a platoon player (and he was not.) Opportunity number 2 flew away a couple of days ago: Richie Sexson who just signed with the Yankees yesterday as a part time player, is hitting .344/.427/.609 against LHP and would have been an ideal Monroe replacement. The past is the past, but there are a couple of things that can be done to improve performance against lefties from the DH position:

a. Internal:

For all options, Monroe, needs to be cut (the Twins will lose $1.6 mil).

I. When Cuddyer is healthy, he assumes the DH spots against LH and is the RF against RHP and Span rotates to RF/CF/bench. One potential issue is that Cuddyer is batting .250/.354/.321 against LHP this season.

II. Ruiz is called up to take Monroe's spot as a DH against lefties and part time 1B when Morneau needs rest. Ruiz is hitting .327/.400/.525 against lefties in Rochester, and while this is in AAA, the numbers that Buscher, Span, Macri and Casilla put in the majors this year, compared to their AAA numbers, indicate that Ruiz has a legitimate chance to repeat that performance for the Twins.

b. External:

A potential trade target would have to fit the following requirements:

a. being fairly inexpensive (in terms of prospects) to acquire
b. have a contract that ends either the end of 2008 or 2009
c. be available
d. hit exceptionally well against LHP
e. be a RHB

here is a list of potential such players (alphabetically) and a lot of them might be surptising:

Rich Aurelia Giants .278/.367/.506 (against LHP), free agent after 2008, due the remaining of $4.5M for 2008. Inexpensive and available, can fill in at 1B and 3B.

Ron Beliard Nationals .260/.351/.700 (against LHP), free agent after 2009, due the remaining of $1.8M for 2008 and $1.9M in 2009. Very inexpensive and available, can fill in at 2B and 3B.

Jerry Hairston Reds .391/.461/.563 (against LHP), free agent after 2008, due the remaining of league minimum for 2008. Inexpensive and available, can fill in at SS (he is the Reds' starting SS).

Mark Loretta , Astros .347/.458/.571 (against LHP), free agent at the end of the season, contract: $2.75M. Probably inexpensive, not much a HR thread but a solid gap hitter. Can also fill in at 2B/SS/3B. Very available.

Kevin Millar Orioles .259/.373/.435 (against LHP), free agent after this season, due the remaining of $2.8M for 2008. Probably inexpensive and available, can fill in at 1B.

Melvin Mota Orioles .273/.337/.580 (against LHP), free agent after 2009, due the remaining of $7.8M for 2008 and $9M in 2009. A slugger past his prime, extremely inexpensive and extremely available, can fill in at 3B/1B; Baltimore would need to probably pay half of his salary for a trade to happen

Dmitri Young Nationals .318/.412/.591 (against LHP), free agent after 2009, due the remaining of $5M for 2008 and $5M in 2009. A bit past his prime, maybe inexpensive and extremely available, can fill in at 1B; An interesting brother reunion possibility and a player the Twins have coveted for a long time.

This is about it, given that the Twins will not try to pull a blockbuster and get Manny Ramirez from the Red Sox... I think that the Hairston and Loretta possibilities are most intriguing, would not cost the Twins much, both in $ and players and would give them a good bench piece.

3B, SS
I am treating both of these positions as similar, since there are a lot of similarities:

a. They were the 2 positions where the Twins had holes during the pre-season
b. The signings of Mike Lamb and Adam Everett did not produce
c. current players (Harris and Punto) are rotating in both positions.

It has been clear that even though Buscher exceeded expectations with the bat against RHP and has been a better alternative to Lamb, he cannot hit LHP and his defense is inadequate. A platoon with Harris and Runto as the every day SS (when healthy) has been the answer so far, albeit not sustainable.

The Twins need to find a home for Mike Lamb. They could potentially promote Macri to platoon with Buscher and have a Harris/Punto platoon on SS. For several reasons, the only external possibility is Adrian Beltre who is hitting .355/.473/.553 against LHP. He is owed the remainder of $12M this year and $12 in 2009. He will probably be expensive but attainable. A few days ago, I looked at previous trades and suggested what it might take for the Twins to obtain him. I think that he will provide a legitimate #5 hitter for this team and an excellent 3B, until Young is ready to take the #5 spot and Valencia to start at 3B.

What would I do if I were Bill Smith?

I would replace Lamb, Monroe and Punto with Hairston, Loretta and Beltre. Beltre would be the starting 3B, Loretta the DH against LHP (platooning with Kubel) and a infield replacement on the bench and Hairston the starting SS against LHP (platooning with Harris). Punto does have trade value and the Reds would potentially trade 1 for 1 with Hairston. Lamb might have a value as a LH PH for a NL contender, but I am not sure that Monroe would have any value at this point...

Here is an intriguing thought that I think that it is way too good, so I did not include it above, but left it as a parting shot: The Dodgers need a SS for the rest of the season. Nomar Garciaparrais hitting .471/.571/.824 against lefties this season and is a free agent after the season due the remainder of $8.5M. Would the Dodgers be willing to trade him for Punto? What else might be necessary to make that trade work (other than handcuffing Gardenhire ;) ) He then could be the platoon DH instead of Loretta in the scenario above, and a potential win-win situation for 2 contenders. Mr Smith get on the phone

5 problems that need to be fixed...

It is the unofficial midpoint of the season and this is my "how well has this team done and what does it need to do to do better post".

So far this team is meeting my expectations (remember, I picked them to win the Central with 89 wins this season, last March). However, there are still 5 problems that this team has to solve to be enshrined as a contender. I will list the problems here and in separate posts I will analyze each of them and propose solutions:

1. The hitting against left hand pitchers is lacking, despite the acquisitions of Young and Monroe during the off-season

2. The starting pitching is not as optimal as it could be

3. The relief pitching is barely adequate and digressing as time goes on

4. The bench, 25-man and 40-man rosters and the minor league system is all over the place

5. The road/home pitching discrepancy is alarming. I discussed this problem ad noseum previously (check the 4 linked posts), so I will not reiterate...

The current contractual state of the Twins

Here are the years the Twins have control over the players who made their appearance in the majors this year. C=contract, O=option year, A = arbitration eligible after 2008.

2013
Macri
Morneau (C)

2012
Gomez
Slowey
Bass
Blackburn
Buscher
Nathan (C,O)

2011
Young (A)
Neshek
Bonser
Baker
Liriano
Harris
Casilla
Perkins
Cuddyer (C,O)

2010
Kubel (A)
Guerrier (A)
Breslow
Mauer (C)

2009
Lamb (C)
Crain (C)
Redmond (C,O)

2008
Hernandez (C)
Punto (C)
Everett (C)
Monroe (C)
Reyes (C,O)

Is Beltre attainable?

What would it take for the Twins to get Beltre? Let's examine some similar trades the past ten years. What I am doing here is listing people similar to Beltre who got traded and trying to assess equivalent trade value based on today's Twins' major and minor league players and the stage the traded players where in their careers when traded:

Trade #1: Roberto Alomar traded by the Cleveland Indians with Danny Peoples and Mike Bacsik to the New York Mets for Matt Lawton, Alex Escobar,Jerrod Riggan, Earl Snyder (2001 offseason, $7-8mil/year contract with 2 years remaining)

Alomar = Beltre

Peoples = Erik Lis

Bacsik < Perkins



Lawton < Cuddyer

Escobar = Erik Lis

Riggan = Casey Daigle

Snyder = Brock Peterson < Buscher


equivalent value trade: Beltre for Buscher and Cuddyer or Bass and Cuddyer or Buscher and Bass and Lis or Buscher and Bonser


Trade #2: Scott Brosius was traded from the Athletics to the Yankees for Kenny Rogers (32) and cash.(1997)

Equivalent value trade: Beltre for Hernandez + Buscher

Trade #3: Carlos Guillen Traded by the Seattle Mariners to the Detroit Tigers for Ramon Santiago and Juan Gonzalez (2004, $2.5mil contract)


Ramon Santiago = Trevor Plouffe
Juan Gonzalez (not Juan Gone) = Ramon Santana

Equivalent trade: Beltran + cash for Plouffe and Ramon Santana (a steal)

Trade #4: Bobby Abreau traded by the Philadelphia Phillies with Cory Lidle to the New York Yankees for Matt Smith, C.J. Henry, Carlos Monasterios, and Jesus Sanchez (2006 $13-16mil/year contract).

Lidle > Hernandez


Matt Smith = Carmen Cali

CJ Henry = Eric Santiago

Monastrios = Alex Curry

Sanchez = Daniel Rohlfing

Equivalent trade: Beltran for Carmen Cali and Eric Santiago (another steal)


Trade #5: Scott Rolen traded by the Philadelphia Phillies with Doug Nickle and cash to the St. Louis Cardinals for Placido Polanco, Mike Timlin, and Bud Smith. (2003 $8.6-12.5 mil contract)

Doug Nickle < Bass


Polanco > Punto
Timlin = Guerrier
Smith = Matthew Williams

Hard to figure this one out but the closer I get for an equivalent trade is Beltre for Punto, Bonser and Humber


I think that a combination of one or 2 from Bass/Buscher/Bonser plus one or 2 minor leaguers from Lis/Plouffe/Peterson/De Paula, might actually do it...

And Anderson is a "great pitching coach"...

A good pitching coach can do the following things:

• help his pitchers be healthy
  (Neshek, Liriano, Crain, Balfour, Perkins, Reyes all had major injuries)
  
  
• work with pitchers who are having problems to turn their staff around
  (Bonser, Ponson, Lohse, Romero, Rincon, Silva, Mays, Fultz all failures vs only 2
  successes: Reyes and Hawkins)
  

I think that the data shows that "Andy" is producing far less than his reputation...

Do you see a patern?

A list of the hitting coaches in the Twins' organization along with their major league stats as players:

DSL Twins: Claudio Almonte no MLB experience .284/.345/.391 9 HR in low minors
GCL Twins: Milt Cuyler .237/.305/.326/ 10 HR
Elizabethton Twins: Jeff Reed .250/.334/.361 61 HR (17 years ML career)
Beloit Snappers: Rudy Hernandez no pro ball experience
Fort Myers Miracle: Jim Dwyer .260/.353/.398 77 HR (17 years ML career)
New Britain Rock Cats: Floyd Rayford .244/.283/.397 38 HR
Rochester Red Wings: Riccardo Ingram .194/.257/.194 0 HR
Minnesota Twins: Joe Vavra no MLB experience .288/.351/.347 3 HR in the minors

All star game selections

There is a lot of talk every year about who are the most worthy selections and whether the fan vote is biased and whether the manager picks are biased and who else should have been there etc.

Here is a list of the 3 best hitters per position along with the 10 best starters and 10 best relievers ranked by VORP:

C

Mauer 24.3
Navarro 11.5
Pierzunski 11.4

1B

Youkilis 27.6
Giambi 25.8
Morneau 23.3


2B

Kinsler 39.5
Roberts 27.2
Perdoia 20.4

3B
Rodriguez 34.8
Lowell 19.7
Longoria 18.5

SS
Young 18.1
Peralta 14.6
Jeter 14.2

CF
Hamilton 33.9
Sizemore 33.7
Upton 23

LF
Quentin 28.4
Ramirez 24.9
Damon 24.1

RF

Drew 29.3
Dye 24.8
Markakis 21.4


DH

Bradney 37.2
Matsui 23.2
Huff 21.2

SP
Lee 32.7
Halladay 30.3
Danks 28.8
Marcum 28.4
Lackey 27.9
Duchscherer 27.6
F. Hernandez 24.5
Harden 24
Saunders 22.6
Santana 22.6



RP

James Johnson 20.9
Rivera 18.1
Downs 17
Soria 15.9
Chamberlain 15.6
Nathan 14.6
Wheeler 14.3
Linebrink 13.2
Mahay 12.7
F Rodriguez 12.4


Usually the roster consists from 12-14 pitchers and about 20 position players. Using a 32 man roster and 12 pitchers (like AL did yesterday), breaking down the position players to 2-3 catchers, 8-10 infielders and 8-10 OF the most deserving players would be:

C
Mauer 24.3 MIN
Navarro 11.5 TBR

IF

Kinsler 39.5 TEX
Rodriguez 34.8 NYY
Youkilis 27.6 BOS
Roberts 27.2 BAL
Giambi 25.8 NYY
Morneau 23.3 MIN
Perdoia 20.4 BOS
Young 18.1 TEX

OF
Hamilton 33.9 TEX
Sizemore 33.7 CLE
Upton 23 TBR
Bradney 37.2 TEX
Drew 29.3 BOS
Dye 24.8 CHW
Markakis 21.4 BAL
Quentin 28.4 CHW
Ramirez 24.9 BOS
Damon 24.1 NYY

P (7 starters 5 relivers)
Lee 32.7 CLE
Halladay 30.3 TOR
Danks 28.8 CHW
Marcum 28.4 TOR
Lackey 27.9 LAA
Duchscherer 27.6 OAK
F. Hernandez 24.5 SEA
James Johnson 20.9 BAL
Rivera 18.1 NYY
Downs 17 TOR
Soria 15.9 KCR
Chamberlain 15.6 NYY

The only team not represented is DET. The highest ranked Detroit players are Ordonez OF 21.3 and Polanco 18.3. The fairest would be to select Ordonez over Markakis, however Polanco over Pedroia might be an interesting selection also...

Here you have my version :)

Musings on another late game day

Baseball is a lot like surfing. You catch your wave and ride it, till it breaks at the shore. Successful teams have been able to catch and ride hot streaks from people who would not necessary be in their plans in the beginning of the season. Point in case Buscher and Casilla (and Tolbert earlier) this year with the Twins. Glad to see that Gardenhire has not been making major changes in the lineup this week with Punto up, letting Harris and Buscher who are both swinging hot bats to play. I wouldn't even question benching Young (.343/.395/.429 the last 2 weeks) for Kubel (.342/.395/.658 the last 2 weeks). Wave riding is fine and fun and Gardy seems to be a decent surfer, but sometimes you got to take care of your surfboard too. The situation with Lamb and Monroe has to be resolved. You cannot simply let them rot on the bench. Either use them or trade them. They do have value as pinch hitters, but Gardy has never utilized pinch hitters appropriately in AL games (like e.g. pinch hitting for a light hitting infielder Tolbert/Punto/Harris/Casilla and substituting with another on the field at the next inning.) and he still insists on having an extra light hitting infielder on the bench instead of someone like McDonald or Ruiz who can actually hit the ball out of the park. The team is doing fine and is riding a 7 game wave. Still there are 2 pitchers (Bass and Bonser) who are practically dead weight. That situation has to be resolved also. You can keep one for the blow out games, as the baseball wisdom might suggest, but wouldn't it be better to get a prospect up instead, who can test his stuff at the major league level and actually develop without hurting the outcome of the game more than Boof or Bass? The Rincon booting was a good thing. The previous management team would not have done that. I am glad that Bill Smith did it and I hope that he does a few more small things to keep the team going.

On another note, a current Twin minor leaguer (Ben Revere) and a former Twin (Terry Tiffee) are the only players who are hitting above .400 in professional ball (the young rookie seasons aside.) The Ted Williams watch has started.

back to hitting

Great article about Young and Gomez. If you can't read it, the gist is that Gomez and Young have a batting average of .324 and .320 respectively when they are hitting pitches in the zone and .181 and .206 respectively when they are trying to hit pitches outside the zone. The writer is pleading for patience from Gomez and Young, but I believe that the true cause of the problem is bad coaching, as I argued in the last several posts here. Effective managers and hitting coaches would have seen the problem and tried to make changes. Apparently Gardy and Varva don't...

And yet, there is more

For the sake of completeness, here are the road splits for every MLB team, ranked by decreased home to road era (the differential in parenthesis) along with their home stadium factor (the second parenthesis):

Pittsburgh 2008: Home ERA 3.75, Road ERA 6.59 (+2.84) (98)
Twins 2008: Home ERA 3.32, Road ERA 5.69 (+2.37) (96)
Tampa 2008: Home ERA 2.87, Road ERA 5.05 (+2.18) (100)
San Diego 2008: Home ERA 3.38, Road ERA 5.10 (+1.72) (91)
Milwaukee 2008: Home ERA 3.36, Road ERA 4.95 (+1.59) (101)
Dodgers 2008: Home ERA 3.35, Road ERA 4.51 (+1.19) (105)
Cleveland 2008: Home ERA 3.57, Road ERA 4.75 (+1.18) (102)
Oakland 2008: Home ERA 3.01, Road ERA 4.02 (+1.01) (93)
Mets 2008: Home ERA 3.57, Road ERA 4.58 (+1.01) (96)
Boston 2008: Home ERA 3.45, Road ERA 4.27 (+.82) (105)
Reds 2008: Home ERA 4.05, Road ERA 4.85 (+.80) (105)
Toronto 2008: Home ERA 3.24, Road ERA 3.95 (+.71) (99)
Colorado 2008: Home ERA 4.35, Road ERA 4.97 (+.62) (108)
MLB 2008: Home ERA 3.89, Road ERA 4.48 (+.59) (100)
Kansas City 2008: Home ERA 4.20, Road ERA 4.75 (+.55) (104)
Seattle 2008: Home ERA 4.41, Road ERA 4.95 (+.54) (96)
Cubs 2008: Home ERA 3.44, Road ERA 3.92 (+.48) (105)
Atlanta 2008: Home ERA 3.52, Road ERA 3.98 (+.46) (96)
White Sox 2008: Home ERA 3.31, Road ERA 3.70 (+.39) (105)
Philadelphia 2008: Home ERA 3.71, Road ERA 4.04 (+.33) (104)
Baltimore 2008: Home ERA 4.20, Road ERA 4.47 (+.27) (102)
Marlins 2008: Home ERA 4.37, Road ERA 4.55 (+.18) (97)
Detroit 2008: Home ERA 4.53, Road ERA 4.59 (+.06) (101)
Texas 2008: Home ERA 4.96, Road ERA 4.92 (+.04) (100)
Yankees 2008: Home ERA 4.13, Road ERA 4.10 (-.03) (99)
Giants 2008: Home ERA 4.45, Road ERA 4.36 (-.11) (100)
St Louis 2008: Home ERA 4.16, Road ERA 3.89 (-.27) (99)
Nationals 2008: Home ERA 4.80, Road ERA 4.41 (-.39) (100)
Houston 2008: Home ERA 4.95, Road ERA 4.20 (-.75) (99)
Arizona 2008: Home ERA 4.32, Road ERA 3.45 (-1.13) (106)
Angels 2008: Home ERA 4.44, Road ERA 3.21 (-1.23) (100)

What is clear from this is that, surprisingly, there is no correlation between home/road ERA differential and park factor of the home park. There are 3 teams, Pittsburgh, the Twins and Tampa Bay, which have really bad home/road ERA differentials this year. It's all about planning, managing and coaching. The current Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay managers and coaches have been regarded as 'not that great'; however, the Twins manager, has been regarded as 'one of the best in the game'. Who lies? numbers or opinions?

Even more about pitching

The 4 game differential in the previous post is somewhat high level and I wanted to get a bit more granular to increase the accuracy of the statistical argument.

Here are the home road splits posted previously:

Joe Nathan: Home ERA 0.86,Road ERA 2.79
Dennys Reyes: Home ERA 1.32,Road ERA 4.00
Matt Guerrier: Home ERA 1.46, Road ERA 5.74
Jesse Crain: Home ERA 1.47, Road ERA 4.72
Nick Blackburn: Home ERA 2.20, Road ERA 5.06
Scott Baker: Home ERA 2.28,Road ERA 4.60
Brian Bass: Home ERA 3.20, Road ERA 6.95
Livan Hernandez: Home ERA 3.86, Road ERA 7.0
Boof Bonser: Home ERA 5.73,Road ERA 8.55

additionally pitchers not currently with the team are:

Juan Rincon: Home ERA 3.68,Road ERA 8.78
Pat Neshek: Home ERA 1.29,Road ERA 8.53
Bobby Korecky: Home ERA 6.00,Road ERA 2.45
Francisco Liriano: Home ERA 5.40,Road ERA 16.88

by subtracting road from home era, subtracting the differential between the league average Home ERA 3.89, Road ERA 4.48 (.59) and dividing by 9 to get runs per inning pitched that the team would have gained if the Twins' pitchers were pitching on the road with the same effectiveness that the league average pitcher does, based on home ERA:

Joe Nathan: 0.15 R/IP
Dennys Reyes: 0.23 R/IP
Matt Guerrier: 0.41 R/IP
Jesse Crain: 0.30 R/IP
Nick Blackburn: 0.25 R/IP
Scott Baker: 0.19 R/IP
Brian Bass: 0.35 R/IP
Livan Hernandez: 0.28 R/IP
Boof Bonser: 0.25 R/IP
Juan Rincon: 0.50 R/IP
Pat Neshek: 0.74 R/IP
Francisco Liriano: 1.21 R/IP


Looking at the Twins road losses and adjusting the score based on the above numbers (i.e. if Livan Hernandez pitched 5 innings and Brian Bass 4, in a hypothetical 5-0 loss, the adjusted score would be 5-(0.28*5 )-(0.35*4)= 2-0. To make it fair to the particular game, if a pitcher did not allow any runs, his differential will not be counted. Here is a list of those road losses, the original score and the adjusted score, along with win loss differential for the Twins and other AL Central teams:

Apr 7 @CHW act: L 4-7 adj: L 4-5
Apr 13 @KCR act: L 1-5 adj: W 1-0 diff +1 Twins -1 KC
Apr 14 @DET act: L 9-11 adj: W 9-8 diff +2 Twins -1 KC -1 Det
Apr 15 @DET act: L 5-6 adj: W 5-4 diff +3 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Apr 23 @OAK act: L 0-3 adj: L 0-1 diff +3 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Apr 24 @OAK act: L 2-11 adj: L 2-9 diff +3 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Apr 25 @TEX act: L 5-6 adj: W 5-4 diff +4 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Apr 27 @TEX act: L 0-10 adj: L 0-8 diff +4 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
May 6 @CHW act: L 1-7 adj: L 1-5 diff +4 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
May 8 @CHW act: L 2-6 adj: L 1-4 diff +4 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
May 17 @COL act: L 2-3 adj: W 2-1 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
May 18 @COL act: L 2-6 adj: L 2-6 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
May 24 @DET act: L 3-19 adj: L 3-16 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 6 @CHW act: L 6-10 adj: L 6-8 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 7 @CHW act: L 2-11 adj: L 2-9 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 8 @CHW act: L 2-12 adj: L 2-11 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 9 @CHW act: L 5-7 adj: L 5-7 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 10 @CLE act: L 0-1 adj: L 0-0 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det (assume loss)
Jun 12 @CLE act: L 2-12 adj: L 2-10 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 15 @MIL act: L 2-4 adj: L 2-4 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det

According to this, the Twins record should have been 45-31 (a .592 winning percentage that projects to 96 wins for the season). If the pitching preparation problems were fixed, they type of discussions that are happening today wouldn't be happening... It is still early. There are 86 games left in the season. If the team identifies the problems, adjusts and plays the remaining 86 games at the potential .592 rate, it will finish the season with 91 wins, easily on top of the AL Central. The team management should really focus on this vs. adding bats...