The tenth inning stretch

7/1/08

And Anderson is a "great pitching coach"...

A good pitching coach can do the following things:

help his pitchers be healthy
(Neshek, Liriano, Crain, Balfour, Perkins, Reyes all had major injuries)
work with pitchers who are having problems to turn their staff around
(Bonser, Ponson, Lohse, Romero, Rincon, Silva, Mays, Fultz all failures vs only 2
successes: Reyes and Hawkins)

I think that the data shows that "Andy" is producing far less than his reputation...

Do you see a patern?

A list of the hitting coaches in the Twins' organization along with their major league stats as players:

DSL Twins: Claudio Almonte no MLB experience .284/.345/.391 9 HR in low minors
GCL Twins: Milt Cuyler .237/.305/.326/ 10 HR
Elizabethton Twins: Jeff Reed .250/.334/.361 61 HR (17 years ML career)
Beloit Snappers: Rudy Hernandez no pro ball experience
Fort Myers Miracle: Jim Dwyer .260/.353/.398 77 HR (17 years ML career)
New Britain Rock Cats: Floyd Rayford .244/.283/.397 38 HR
Rochester Red Wings: Riccardo Ingram .194/.257/.194 0 HR
Minnesota Twins: Joe Vavra no MLB experience .288/.351/.347 3 HR in the minors

6/25/08

Musings on another late game day

Baseball is a lot like surfing. You catch your wave and ride it, till it breaks at the shore. Successful teams have been able to catch and ride hot streaks from people who would not necessary be in their plans in the beginning of the season. Point in case Buscher and Casilla (and Tolbert earlier) this year with the Twins. Glad to see that Gardenhire has not been making major changes in the lineup this week with Punto up, letting Harris and Buscher who are both swinging hot bats to play. I wouldn't even question benching Young (.343/.395/.429 the last 2 weeks) for Kubel (.342/.395/.658 the last 2 weeks). Wave riding is fine and fun and Gardy seems to be a decent surfer, but sometimes you got to take care of your surfboard too. The situation with Lamb and Monroe has to be resolved. You cannot simply let them rot on the bench. Either use them or trade them. They do have value as pinch hitters, but Gardy has never utilized pinch hitters appropriately in AL games (like e.g. pinch hitting for a light hitting infielder Tolbert/Punto/Harris/Casilla and substituting with another on the field at the next inning.) and he still insists on having an extra light hitting infielder on the bench instead of someone like McDonald or Ruiz who can actually hit the ball out of the park. The team is doing fine and is riding a 7 game wave. Still there are 2 pitchers (Bass and Bonser) who are practically dead weight. That situation has to be resolved also. You can keep one for the blow out games, as the baseball wisdom might suggest, but wouldn't it be better to get a prospect up instead, who can test his stuff at the major league level and actually develop without hurting the outcome of the game more than Boof or Bass? The Rincon booting was a good thing. The previous management team would not have done that. I am glad that Bill Smith did it and I hope that he does a few more small things to keep the team going.

On another note, a current Twin minor leaguer (Ben Revere) and a former Twin (Terry Tiffee) are the only players who are hitting above .400 in professional ball (the young rookie seasons aside.) The Ted Williams watch has started.

6/24/08

back to hitting

Great article about Young and Gomez. If you can't read it, the gist is that Gomez and Young have a batting average of .324 and .320 respectively when they are hitting pitches in the zone and .181 and .206 respectively when they are trying to hit pitches outside the zone. The writer is pleading for patience from Gomez and Young, but I believe that the true cause of the problem is bad coaching, as I argued in the last several posts here. Effective managers and hitting coaches would have seen the problem and tried to make changes. Apparently Gardy and Varva don't...

And yet, there is more

For the sake of completeness, here are the road splits for every MLB team, ranked by decreased home to road era (the differential in parenthesis) along with their home stadium factor (the second parenthesis):

Pittsburgh 2008: Home ERA 3.75, Road ERA 6.59 (+2.84) (98)
Twins 2008: Home ERA 3.32, Road ERA 5.69 (+2.37) (96)
Tampa 2008: Home ERA 2.87, Road ERA 5.05 (+2.18) (100)
San Diego 2008: Home ERA 3.38, Road ERA 5.10 (+1.72) (91)
Milwaukee 2008: Home ERA 3.36, Road ERA 4.95 (+1.59) (101)
Dodgers 2008: Home ERA 3.35, Road ERA 4.51 (+1.19) (105)
Cleveland 2008: Home ERA 3.57, Road ERA 4.75 (+1.18) (102)
Oakland 2008: Home ERA 3.01, Road ERA 4.02 (+1.01) (93)
Mets 2008: Home ERA 3.57, Road ERA 4.58 (+1.01) (96)
Boston 2008: Home ERA 3.45, Road ERA 4.27 (+.82) (105)
Reds 2008: Home ERA 4.05, Road ERA 4.85 (+.80) (105)
Toronto 2008: Home ERA 3.24, Road ERA 3.95 (+.71) (99)
Colorado 2008: Home ERA 4.35, Road ERA 4.97 (+.62) (108)
MLB 2008: Home ERA 3.89, Road ERA 4.48 (+.59) (100)
Kansas City 2008: Home ERA 4.20, Road ERA 4.75 (+.55) (104)
Seattle 2008: Home ERA 4.41, Road ERA 4.95 (+.54) (96)
Cubs 2008: Home ERA 3.44, Road ERA 3.92 (+.48) (105)
Atlanta 2008: Home ERA 3.52, Road ERA 3.98 (+.46) (96)
White Sox 2008: Home ERA 3.31, Road ERA 3.70 (+.39) (105)
Philadelphia 2008: Home ERA 3.71, Road ERA 4.04 (+.33) (104)
Baltimore 2008: Home ERA 4.20, Road ERA 4.47 (+.27) (102)
Marlins 2008: Home ERA 4.37, Road ERA 4.55 (+.18) (97)
Detroit 2008: Home ERA 4.53, Road ERA 4.59 (+.06) (101)
Texas 2008: Home ERA 4.96, Road ERA 4.92 (+.04) (100)
Yankees 2008: Home ERA 4.13, Road ERA 4.10 (-.03) (99)
Giants 2008: Home ERA 4.45, Road ERA 4.36 (-.11) (100)
St Louis 2008: Home ERA 4.16, Road ERA 3.89 (-.27) (99)
Nationals 2008: Home ERA 4.80, Road ERA 4.41 (-.39) (100)
Houston 2008: Home ERA 4.95, Road ERA 4.20 (-.75) (99)
Arizona 2008: Home ERA 4.32, Road ERA 3.45 (-1.13) (106)
Angels 2008: Home ERA 4.44, Road ERA 3.21 (-1.23) (100)

What is clear from this is that, surprisingly, there is no correlation between home/road ERA differential and park factor of the home park. There are 3 teams, Pittsburgh, the Twins and Tampa Bay, which have really bad home/road ERA differentials this year. It's all about planning, managing and coaching. The current Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay managers and coaches have been regarded as 'not that great'; however, the Twins manager, has been regarded as 'one of the best in the game'. Who lies? numbers or opinions?

Even more about pitching

The 4 game differential in the previous post is somewhat high level and I wanted to get a bit more granular to increase the accuracy of the statistical argument.

Here are the home road splits posted previously:

Joe Nathan: Home ERA 0.86,Road ERA 2.79
Dennys Reyes: Home ERA 1.32,Road ERA 4.00
Matt Guerrier: Home ERA 1.46, Road ERA 5.74
Jesse Crain: Home ERA 1.47, Road ERA 4.72
Nick Blackburn: Home ERA 2.20, Road ERA 5.06
Scott Baker: Home ERA 2.28,Road ERA 4.60
Brian Bass: Home ERA 3.20, Road ERA 6.95
Livan Hernandez: Home ERA 3.86, Road ERA 7.0
Boof Bonser: Home ERA 5.73,Road ERA 8.55

additionally pitchers not currently with the team are:

Juan Rincon: Home ERA 3.68,Road ERA 8.78
Pat Neshek: Home ERA 1.29,Road ERA 8.53
Bobby Korecky: Home ERA 6.00,Road ERA 2.45
Francisco Liriano: Home ERA 5.40,Road ERA 16.88

by subtracting road from home era, subtracting the differential between the league average Home ERA 3.89, Road ERA 4.48 (.59) and dividing by 9 to get runs per inning pitched that the team would have gained if the Twins' pitchers were pitching on the road with the same effectiveness that the league average pitcher does, based on home ERA:

Joe Nathan: 0.15 R/IP
Dennys Reyes: 0.23 R/IP
Matt Guerrier: 0.41 R/IP
Jesse Crain: 0.30 R/IP
Nick Blackburn: 0.25 R/IP
Scott Baker: 0.19 R/IP
Brian Bass: 0.35 R/IP
Livan Hernandez: 0.28 R/IP
Boof Bonser: 0.25 R/IP
Juan Rincon: 0.50 R/IP
Pat Neshek: 0.74 R/IP
Francisco Liriano: 1.21 R/IP

Looking at the Twins road losses and adjusting the score based on the above numbers (i.e. if Livan Hernandez pitched 5 innings and Brian Bass 4, in a hypothetical 5-0 loss, the adjusted score would be 5-(0.28*5 )-(0.35*4)= 2-0. To make it fair to the particular game, if a pitcher did not allow any runs, his differential will not be counted. Here is a list of those road losses, the original score and the adjusted score, along with win loss differential for the Twins and other AL Central teams:

Apr 7 @CHW act: L 4-7 adj: L 4-5
Apr 13 @KCR act: L 1-5 adj: W 1-0 diff +1 Twins -1 KC
Apr 14 @DET act: L 9-11 adj: W 9-8 diff +2 Twins -1 KC -1 Det
Apr 15 @DET act: L 5-6 adj: W 5-4 diff +3 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Apr 23 @OAK act: L 0-3 adj: L 0-1 diff +3 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Apr 24 @OAK act: L 2-11 adj: L 2-9 diff +3 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Apr 25 @TEX act: L 5-6 adj: W 5-4 diff +4 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Apr 27 @TEX act: L 0-10 adj: L 0-8 diff +4 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
May 6 @CHW act: L 1-7 adj: L 1-5 diff +4 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
May 8 @CHW act: L 2-6 adj: L 1-4 diff +4 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
May 17 @COL act: L 2-3 adj: W 2-1 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
May 18 @COL act: L 2-6 adj: L 2-6 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
May 24 @DET act: L 3-19 adj: L 3-16 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 6 @CHW act: L 6-10 adj: L 6-8 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 7 @CHW act: L 2-11 adj: L 2-9 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 8 @CHW act: L 2-12 adj: L 2-11 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 9 @CHW act: L 5-7 adj: L 5-7 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 10 @CLE act: L 0-1 adj: L 0-0 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det (assume loss)
Jun 12 @CLE act: L 2-12 adj: L 2-10 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 15 @MIL act: L 2-4 adj: L 2-4 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det

According to this, the Twins record should have been 45-31 (a .592 winning percentage that projects to 96 wins for the season). If the pitching preparation problems were fixed, they type of discussions that are happening today wouldn't be happening... It is still early. There are 86 games left in the season. If the team identifies the problems, adjusts and plays the remaining 86 games at the potential .592 rate, it will finish the season with 91 wins, easily on top of the AL Central. The team management should really focus on this vs. adding bats...

Digging more into pitching this year...

The huge discrepancy in home and road ERAs, posted earlier, really took me by surprise and made me dig a bit deeper. I have been suggesting (screaming actually) that the numbers indicate that problem with this team this year is pitching, esp starting pitching and not batting. All the trade talk about adding 'better' bats and the talk about players like Lamb, Monroe and Everett underachieving, and who should the utility player be, in order for the Twins to win, are really moot points. I even wrote the following in Joe C's blog:

This team can and should contend. Starting pitching has been a problem and the most serious problem in this team. Having discussions about whether one of Punto/Tolbert/Macri/Harris should play, is somewhat atopic, because either way the way the team has been performing this year, it would not make a difference. Looking at the bench vs. starting pitching is like looking at someone with a heart failure, and trying to give him/her a pedicure before resuscitating him/her… (extreme hyperbole, but I’m trying to make a point… That’s why I think that Gardy messing around with the line up is like an old lady at the checkout counter arguing whether she was shorted 3 cents, while someone is pickpocketing her purse…)

I think that the previous analysis showed that the root cause of the pitching problems is bad road pitching. What is the root cause of bad road pitching?

The players are the same, their stuff is the same at home and on the road. Just the preparation is different and this, as I said before, falls on the manager, the pitching coach and the travel staff. The team should look more serious into this big problem that is costing 2 runs for every away game.

I'll come back to the last point later, but here are the numbers for the major leagues this year, making sure that there is not a league-wide aberration

MLB 2008: Home ERA 3.89, Road ERA 4.48
AL 2008: Home ERA 3.81, Road ERA 4.45
NL 2008: Home ERA 3.96, Road ERA 4.52

and here are the historic numbers for the Twins

Twins:
2008: Home ERA 3.32, Road ERA 5.69
2007: Home ERA 3.84, Road ERA 4.54
2006: Home ERA 3.40, Road ERA 4.54
----
2005: Home ERA 3.62, Road ERA 3.83
2004: Home ERA 3.89, Road ERA 4.20
2003: Home ERA 4.50, Road ERA 4.31
2002: Home ERA 3.76, Road ERA 4.52
2001: Home ERA 4.47, Road ERA 4.56
2000: Home ERA 5.18, Road ERA 5.13
1999: Home ERA 5.08, Road ERA 4.97
1998: Home ERA 4.52, Road ERA 5.00
1997: Home ERA 4.94, Road ERA 5.10
1996: Home ERA 5.38, Road ERA 5.22
1995: Home ERA 5.74, Road ERA 5.81
1994: Home ERA 5.26, Road ERA 6.17
1993: Home ERA 4.73, Road ERA 4.73
1992: Home ERA 3.68, Road ERA 3.76
1991: Home ERA 3.90, Road ERA 3.48
1990: Home ERA 4.24, Road ERA 4.03

Up until and including 2005, the Twins' splits were comparable with the league. Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson came to the team in 2002. Rick Stelmaszyk has been the bullpen coach all those years, so his presence probably has nothing to do with this. Did something change between 2005 and 2006? Where any changes made in the travel routine this year? The one thing that changed in 2006 was that this was the first year the majority of the Twins pitching staff had the Gardenhire/Anderson combination as their only Twins MLB coaching/manager combination. Arguable, a veteran pitcher that learned travel habits and preparation that work for him from other coaches, a change in coaching stuff and road preparation philosophy will be less affected than a younger pitcher who has seen nothing else in the Twins' organization. Could it really be just Gardy's and Ronnie's fault?

If the Twins followed the ML trend, their road ERA should have been 3.91. Instead it is 5.69. This is the equivalent of starting every road game down 2-0. Looking closely to the road games this year, if the manager and coaching stuff had the team prepared like every other ballclub in the majors this year, the following games would statistically have been wins:

Apr 15 @DET L 5-6
Apr 25 @TEX L 5-6
May 17 @COL L 2-3
Jun 10 @CLE L 0-1

And the club record would have been 44-32, 2.5 games ahead in Central and 0.5 game off the WC race.

The numbers clearly show that the issue with pitching is not personnel but preparation, managing and coaching. Is the management of the team aware of this issue? I would think that they have someone who analyzes the team performance and reports such obvious discrepancies. If the team straightens things out with the above problems, it would be the equivalent of adding 2 great pitchers in the rotation... If not, Gardenhire and his coaches should be held accountable, unless the management of this team would like to continue its pickpocketing at the rate of 2 runs a game.

It's a late night's day, so here are some tidbits

It looks like Juanie singed a minor league deal with the Indians. Effectively, this is trading Rincon for Breslow, while eating Rincon's salary. A bunch of teams are willing to give a major league contract with a multi million dollar signing bonus to a 16 year old. The Twins are on the road at San Diego. Here are some interesting splits:

Pitching:

Team: Home ERA 3.32, Road ERA 5.69

home buddies:
Joe Nathan: Home ERA 0.86,Road ERA 2.79
Dennys Reyes: Home ERA 1.32,Road ERA 4.00
Matt Guerrier: Home ERA 1.46, Road ERA 5.74
Jesse Crain: Home ERA 1.47, Road ERA 4.72
Nick Blackburn: Home ERA 2.20, Road ERA 5.06
Scott Baker: Home ERA 2.28,Road ERA 4.60
Brian Bass: Home ERA 3.20, Road ERA 6.95
Livan Hernandez: Home ERA 3.86, Road ERA 7.00

Frequent Fliers:
Glen Perkins: Home ERA 4.98,Road ERA 3.32
Kevin Slowey: Home ERA 4.71,Road ERA 4.17

Consistently bad:
Boof Bonser: Home ERA 5.73,Road ERA 8.55

Batting:

Team: Home OPS .734, Road OPS .707

home buddies:
Joe Mauer: Home OPS .952, Road OPS .742
Brian Buscher: Home OPS .802, Road OPS .690
Craig Monroe: Home OPS .788, Road OPS .595
Michael Cuddyer: Home OPS .772, Road OPS .626
Nick Punto: Home OPS .770, Road OPS .655
Brendan Harris : Home OPS .719, Road OPS .590
Mike Redmond: Home OPS .717, Road OPS .632

Frequent Fliers:
Delmon Young: Home OPS .626, Road OPS .774
Mike Lamb: Home OPS .416, Road OPS .752

Even Stevens:
Justin Morneau: Home OPS .858, Road OPS .834
Jason Kubel: Home OPS .797, Road OPS .759
Alexi Casilla: Home OPS .758, Road OPS .783
Carlos Gomez: Home OPS .672, Road OPS .690

This is pretty interesting data, looking at the whole pitching squad grossly underachieving on the road. Is it a routine/preparation issue? The coaches should do something to reverse this trait, or at least attempt to do something. It is a glaring difference and squad-wise. When your team ERA is 2.some points higher on the road it is a serious problem of preparation and the blame falls of the manager, pitching coach and travel staff.

As far as the batters go, I would not be surprised to see Mike Lamb play in San Diego. A home/road platoon at 3rd might not be out of the question. Craig Monroe should play more at home, occasionally spelling Gomez and Young.

6/23/08

do you wonder...

who “Brian Buster” and “Carols Game” are? Read on...

Minor league tour: Rock Cats at Defenders 6/21

Gorgeous weather last Saturday, I was in Connecticut and lucky enough, the Rock Cats were playing the Connecticut Defenders (SF affiliated Eastern League club) at Dodd stadium, the host of Norwich Navigators until this year. The stadium is very difficult to find, one needs to go up through a long an winding road through a business park like setting. Once there, the facility is really nice, with plenty of parking ($2).

We got there 2.5 hours before the game and went to the box office to purchase tickets. I was happy to find 4 tickets at the first row, right behind the catcher ($10 each). I was hopping to go in and catch a bit of batting practice, but the doors open only one hour before the game. One one hand, getting there early enough got me the best seats in the stadium, on the other, nothing much to do around there, save an ice cream shop/batting cage venue half a mile away where we spent the waiting time. Once inside the stadium looks really nice for a AA park, albeit the usual billboard kitchness at the outfield.

concession-wise, other than the usual park stuff, the gem of the stadium is the San Fransisco fries stand at the left field where one can get fries with a variety of toppings ($3.75; Garlic fries were a killer) and several micro-brews were offered throughout the stadium ($4.50 for a pint).

This was a spare of the moment decision and did not know any of the starting lineups and the defenders were not very good with providing them ahead of the time. There were a couple of xeroxed papers with the rosters of the 2 teams, which one had to use to make the lineups out. Scorecards are not provided.

Our seats were great. Here is the view from my eye level:

and looking up:

Yes this is a rope and not metal net (patched several times at several places) and not too tight, so I had to warn my kids to stand back while there is a batter in the box and use the floor instead of the wall as a caddy, otherwise drinks could be worn.

It was an integration commemorative weekend and the home team wore the beige Brooklyn tops, the Rock Cats were in red.

pre game stretch

getting ready for the national anthem

Moses (13), Dinkelman (28) and Valencia getting ready to bat at the first warm up pitches.

Dinkelman on deck

Moses taking a ball

Valencia moving in with Moses on second.

Look at the size of the home plate umpire (Valencia is 6'2", for comparison). The ump could not crunch all the way (the best he could do was shown in the previous picture). This really unsettled Swarzak because the low strike was not called and after the Defenders realized that after the first inning, they stopped swinging at it. Swarzak try to compensate by throwing middle of the plate strikes, instead of nipping at the corners, resulting in the 2 home runs. Here are a couple of warm up shots:

He has a nice fluid motion and plus stuff (look at the spin of the curve in the second picture), but he does need coaching to learn how to adjust in situations like that day when he does not get strikes called. He has tons of potential, but needs coaching to try to understand and apply the intricacies of the game. On another note, he is not spotting his legendary crew cut this season, but a John Candelaria look.

The Rock Cats lost, but it was a very enjoyable experience to say the least. AA and A+ are probably the best places to see games live, because you can be so close to the action. One has to realize that this is not the majors and that there are only 3 umpires and 2 coaches plus the manager for each side (the hitting and pitching coaches serve as 1st and 3rd base coach as well) which makes things a little more difficult, some of us will say a little more pure...

Rock Cat player evaluations (take them with a grain of salt the size of Greenland, because this is the first time I saw many of these guys):

Dinkelman can be the real thing. Nice fluid swing, good feel of the game, probably better than Tolbert. Valencia physically reminds me of Gomez. However, he has a nice compact swing that looks a lot like Morneau's. Lis, Peterson and Winfree look like the same player out there. There are really stiff, extremely minimal range on the field (Peterson booted a double play ball that was almost impossible to boot) but they can hit. I do not see any of them beeing more that DHs in the majors. Moses is a disappointment. He seems really lost on the batter's box. I still do not understand what is Gardenhire doing in pro ball. Felix Molina is good in the field and showed a live bat, but I cannot see him be anything more than a career minor leaguer; same with Palacios

That's all, folks

6/12/08

The pitching situation

Here are the rankings of the starters in the following categories:

K/9

Baker
Slowey
Bonser
Blackburn
Perkins
Hernandez

pitches/games started

Hernandez
Perkins
Slowey
Bonser
Blackburn
Baker

BB/9
Baker
Slowey
Hernandez
Blackburn
Perkins
Bonser

ERA

Baker
Blackburn
Perkins
Slowey
Hernandez
Bonser

WHIP
Baker
Slowey
Blackburn
Bonser
Perkins
Hernandez

Wins

Hernandez
Blackburn
Bonser
Baker/Slowey/Perkins

Loses

Baker
Perkins
Hernandez
Blackburn
Slowey/Bonser

If you give 6 points for the pitcher who leads in a category, 5 points for the second in a category etc down to 1 point for the last in the category, you have:

Total:
Baker 34
Slowey 27
Blackburn 25
Hernandez 24
Perkins 23
Bonser 18

I'd say that Bonser was the odd man out and he deserved the demotion.

Looking at the reliever rankings, similar as above, but scoring 9-1 for the following
categories:

K/9
Nathan 9
Breslow 8
Rincon 7
Crain 6
Guerrier/Bonser 5
Korecky 3
Reyes 2
Bass 1

BB/9

Nathan 9
Breslow 8
Reyes 7
Bonser 6
Bass 5
Korecky 4
Crain 3
Guerrier 2
Rincon 1

ERA

Breslow 9
Nathan 8
Reyes 7
Crain 6
Guerrier 5
Korecky 4
Bass 3
Rincon 2
Bonser 1

WHIP

Breslow 9
Nathan 8
Korecky 7
Reyes 6
Crain 5
Bonser 4
Guerrier 3
Bass 2
Rincon 1

Saves+Holds

Nathan 9
Guerrier 8
Crain/Reyes 7
Bass/Rinco 5
Korecky/Breslow/Bonser 3

Total

Nathan 43
Breslow 37
Reyes 29
Crain 27
Guerrier 23
Korecky 21
Bonser 19
Rincon/Bass 16

It is clear that Rincon and Bass do not belong. Bonser's numbers' inclusion is somewhat of an apples to oranges comparison, but necessary. Additionally, Guerrier leads the team with 5 IBBs, which penalizes his ranking

6/4/08

Why I don't give up on Bonser?

Because he reminds me of this guy:
MLB stats:

Player X:

Age 23: 10-7 21 games 19 s, 122.3 IP, 37 BB, 74 K, 3.24 ERA, 108 ERA +, 1.267 WHIP
Age 24: 10-7 28 games 20 s, 141.7 IP 36 BB 104 K 3.88 ERA, 92 ERA + 1.278 WHIP
Age 25: 11-3 18 games 17 s 115.0 IP 33 BB 77 K 3.60 ERA 106 ERA+ 1.365 WHIP
Age 26: 0-4 11 games 3 S 24.7 IP 10 BB 16 K 6.93 ERA 47 ERA+ 1.581 WHIP

Boof:

Age 24: 7-6 18 games 18S 100.3 IP 24BB 84 K 4.22 ERA 106 ERA+ 1.276 WHIP
Age 25: 8-12 31 games 30S 173.0 IP 65BB 136K 5.10 ERA 85 ERA+ 1.526 WHIP
Age 26: 2-6 12 games 12S 66.3 IP 20BB 42K 5.97 ERA 66 ERA+ 1.402 WHIP

fast forward player X:

Age 29: 4-5 63 games 40 saves, 69.0 IP 30BB 61K 2.35 ERA 182 ERA+ 1.072WHIP
Age 33: 3-3 52 games 32 saves 55.3 IP 13BB 52 K 2.60 ERA 186 ERA+ 1.066WHIP
career totals:

Age 38: 86-80, 732 games 318 saves 351BB 1030K 3.57 ERA, 117 ERA+ 1.227 WHIP

6/3/08

Draft?

Alright, with the amateur draft coming up, here is an obscure factoid to file under the “once bitten, twice shy” category:

The Twins drafted Nick Punto in the 33rd round of the 1997 draft out of Saddleback College in CA, but he elected not to sign and drafted next year (in the 21st round by Philly). BTW, Gardy was the Twins’ 1st base coach in 1997. The next is history

Why does the draft matter?

Here is a list of all players who participated in an all star game since 2003, sorted by the way they were introduced into the majors:

1st Round picks:

Moises Alou
Josh Beckett
Lance Berkman
Barry Bonds
Kevin Brown
Chris Carpenter
Roger Clemens
Chad Cordero
Johnny Damon
Carl Everett
Prince Fielder
Nomar Garciaparra
Jon Garland
Troy Glaus
Ken Griffey
Roy Halladay
Cole Hamels
Todd Helton
Torii Hunter
Geoff Jenkins
Derek Jeter
Scott Kazmir
Paul Konerko
Barry Larkin
Derrek Lee
Brad Lidge
Felipe Lopez
Mike MacDougal
Joe Mauer
Gil Meche
Mark Mulder
Mark Prior
Manny Ramirez
Mark Redman
Alexis Rios
Brian Roberts
Alex Rodriguez
Aaron Rowand
C.C. Sabathia
Ben Sheets
Gary Sheffield
Mark Teixeira
Chase Utley
Justin Verlander
Jason Varitek
Billy Wagner
Vernon Wells
Jake Westbrook
Rondell White
Preston Wilson
Kerry Wood
David Wright
Dmitri Young
Barry Zito

2nd Round Picks:

Carlos Beltran
Sean Casey
Carl Crawford
Jason Giambi
Tom Glavine
J.J. Hardy
Danny Haren
Randy Johnson
John Lackey
Brian McCann
Scott Rolen
Jimmy Rollins
Curt Schilling
Bob Wickman
Randy Wolf

3rd Round Picks:

Bronson Arroyo
Hank Blalock
Aaron Boone
Shawn Chacon
Matt Clement
Justin Morneau
A.J. Pierzynski
Scott Podsednik
Grady Sizemore
Chris Young

4th Round Picks:

Garret Anderson
Luis Gonzalez
Russ Ortiz
Jonathan Papelbon

5th Round Picks:

Bret Boone
Tom Gordon
Ken Harvey
Ryan Howard
Bobby Jenks
Brad Penny
Derrick Turnbow
Michael Young
Javier Vazquez

6th Round Picks:

Tim Hudson
Danny Kolb
Jamie Moyer
J.J. Putz
Jose Vidro

7th Round Picks:

Jim Edmonds
Matt Holliday
Mark Loretta

8th Round Picks:

Ron Belliard
Justin Duchscherer
Jason Schmidt
Brandon Webb
Dontrelle Willis

9th Round Picks:

Keith Foulke
Jack Wilson

10th Round Picks:

Shea Hillenbrand
Mike Sweeney

11th Round Picks:

Trevor Hoffman
Freddy Sanchez
Dan Uggla

13th Round Picks:

Matt Lawton
Carl Pavano
Albert Pujols
Jim Thome

14th Round Picks:

Mike Williams

15th Round Picks:

Jake Peavy

17th Round Picks:

Johnny Estrada
Russell Martin
B.J. Ryan

19th Round picks:

David Eckstein
Placido Polanco

20th Round picks:

Jeff Kent
Mike Lowell

21st Round Picks:

Lance Carter
Eddie Guardado

22nd Round Picks:

Jason Bay
John Smoltz

23th Round picks:

Ted Lilly
Roy Oswalt

24th Round picks:

Jorge Posada
Richie Sexson

25th Round picks:

Brian Fuentes
Paul Lo Duca

27th Round picks:

Brendan Donnelly

28th Round picks:

Woody Williams

38th Round picks:

Mark Buehrle

39th Round Picks:
Kenny Rogers

43rd Round picks:

Orlando Hudson

44th Round picks:

Jason Isringhausen

53rd Round Picks:

Marcus Giles

62nd Round Picks:

Mike Piazza

Amateur free agent signings(USA/Canada):

Eric Gagne
Edgar Martinez

Amateur free agent signings(Latin America):

Bobby Abreu
Danys Baez
Armando Benitez
Miguel Cabrera
Robinson Cano
Luis Castillo
Bartolo Colon
Jose Contreras
Francisco Cordero
Carlos Delgado
Vladimir Guerrero
Carlos Guillen
Ramon Hernandez
Cesar Izturis
Andruw Jones
Carlos Lee
Francisco Liriano
Esteban Loaiza
Javy Lopez
Jose Lopez
Pedro Martinez
Victor Martinez
Melvin Mora
Magglio Ordonez
David Ortiz
Aramis Ramirez
Mariano Rivera
Edgar Renteria
Jose Reyes
Ivan Rodriguez
Francisco Rodriguez
Johan Santana
Sammy Sosa
Miguel Tejada
Jose Valverde
Carlos Zambrano

Amateur free agent signings (Japan):

Shigetoshi Hasegawa
Hideki Matsui
Hideki Okajima
Takashi Saito
Alfonso Soriano
Ichiro Suzuki

Observations: It is obvious that the first round (and lesser the next 3-4) and the latin american development programs are extremely important. Teams should focus on both of those aspects of the developing process

taking a breather and looking at the season numbers so far - part one

So far the Twins have a team OPS+ of 99, which is much better than last year and a team ERA+ of 93, which is the lowest this team had since the 68-94 squad of 1997. How much of a contender is this team, or more accurately, what are the flaws of this team that needed to be examined:

Even though the team has a league average OPS, against RHP the team is hitting 271/.332/.393 while only .262/.306/.368 against LHP. In 2007 for comparison, the team was hitting an eerily similar .265/.331/.393 against RHP and a much better (by 38 OPS points) .263/.326/.385 against LHP. There are clearly some issues there. Here is a list of the current players and their records against LHP in 2008, ranked by OPS:

Casilla .417/.417/.667/1.083
Gomez .353/.377/.569/.946
Everett .364/.462/.455/.916
Mauer .368/.393/.456/.850
Morneau .273/.294/.470/.764
Cuddyer .278/.366/.361/.727
Team average .262/.306/.368/.672
Tolbert .286/.310/.357/.667
Young .250/.308/.354/.662
Punto .250/.250/.350/.600
------Mendoza line------------
Redmond .214/.250/.286/.536
Harris .196/.288/.239/.528
Kubel .171/.231/.171/.402
Lamb .091/.130/.227/.358
Monroe .135/.200/.135/.335

a similar look at the ranking of players against RHP:

Morneau .316/.403/.513/.917
Casilla .304/.393/.435/.828
Monroe .229/.315/.500/.815
Mauer .297/.409/.383/.792
Kubel .255/.299/.438/.737
Team average .271/.332/.393/.725
Harris .267/.338/.359/.697
Young .280/.335/.357/.692
Punto .265/.350/.324/.674
Redmond .250/.318/.350/.668
Lamb .276/.306/.359/.665
Cuddyer .252/.296/.362/.659
Gomez .257/.291/.353/.645
Tolbert .255/.305/.327/.632
------Mendoza line------------
Everett .159/.191/.302/.493

It is clear that there is A. a higher discrepancy in the team hitting against LHP (there are several people hitting way above the team average and certain people hitting way bellow the team average) and B. Way too many people are hitting below the Mendoza line against LHP, including the 2 primary DHs and 2 starting IF. Is it too early in the season? Could it be solved by a platoon possibility? Could it be solved by roster moves? There are 14 players listed here (2 in the DL currently) and probably space of only 13 or 12.

Lets look at lifetime splits of the people below the Mendoza line against LHP and Everett against RHP

Redmond .214/.250/.286/.536 life:.329/.386/.433/.820
Harris .196/.288/.239/.528 life:.295/.370/.432/.802
Kubel .171/.231/.171/.402 life: .227/.298/.313/.611
Lamb .091/.130/.227/.358 life: .258/.326/.401/.727
Monroe .135/.200/.135/.335 life:.267/.314/.478/.792
Everett (RHP).159/.191/.302/.493 life:.244/.291/.356/.647

From these numbers, it looks that even though everyone in the above group is underperforming their career expectations, there is enough upside for Harris, Mornoe, and Redmond; and somewhat Lamb. However, Kubel cannot hit LHP and Everett cannot hit RHP at an adequate rate.

Some suggestions:

The team should not go with 13 pitchers and 12 batters. There is just too much risk.
Everett should be platooned against righties and Kubel against lefties to give the team the higher probability of success.

The best every day lineups based on these numbers would be (platoons noted against RHP/LHP):

C Mauer
1B Morneau
2B Casilla
3B Lamb
SS Harris/Everett
LF Young
CF Gomez
RF Cuddyer
DH Kubel/Monroe

Helter-Skelter substitutions (like the use of mediocre hitters like Punto) have been robbing ABs from people like Harris, Lamb and Everett who need ABs to get going. Another bat that can hit lefties (especially a RHB 3rd baseman) would help. Morgan Ensberg is a career .278/.400/.512/.912 hitter against LHP, is available on the waiver wire but would probable cost the roster spot for someone like Nick Punto or Adam Everett and is not the best clubhouse presence and this year (and last) his performance has been extremely mediocre. Not sure that he might be the answer. There are a couple of people in the Twins' system who potentially might be part of the answer. Luke Hughes is one, the 23 yo third baseman in New Britain who is batting .337/.410/.610/1.020 with 12 HRs and 31 RBI this year. Hughes is playing primarily 3B this year, but has played 2B and outfield and would be a platoon 3B against LHP and take Nick Punto's utility spot.

So the optimal position player roster for the Twins would be:

Mauer
Morneau
Casilla
Lamb
Harris
Young
Gomez
Cuddyer
Kubel
Monroe
Everett
Redmond
Hughes

(Pitching in another post)

6/2/08

Prospects

I've always believed that prospect lists have been (more that somewhat) arbitrary. Being a number person, I wanted to devise a formula that could actually put a numerical value to support a prospect ranking.

Here is the results of a first take of my formula that takes in account the following:

Performance at the end of the year
Performance vs the average league pitcher/batter in several categories
Fielding Performance for Batters (compared to an average major leaguer)
Improvement related to last year's performance (a factor that is somewhat passed by in most rankings)
Level of play (A, AA, AAA, higher is better)
Promotions to higher levels of play
Age (younger is better)

All of these factors are weighted differently.

The results for the end-of-year 2007 (i.e. 2008 results not into consideration) prospects of note in the Twins' system:

Pitchers:

Delaney 0.582*
Slowey 0.443
Gabino 0.385
Blackburn 0.365
Craig 0.347*
Robertson 0.332
Bass 0.297*
Duensing 0.248
De Paula 0.210
Burnett 0.204
Lahey 0.168
Rainville 0.152
Swarzak 0.146
Manship 0.141
Sosa 0.141
Van Mil 0.122
Hernandez 0.121
Mullins 0.095
Morlan 0.092
Fox 0.085
Mulvey 0.056
Mijares 0.051
Pino 0.042
Guerra <0
Humber <0

Batters:

Pridie 0.329
Morales 0.296
Buscher 0.285
Macri 0.221
Sergio Santos 0.189
Hughes 0.183
Romero 0.172
Johnny Woodard 0.157
Tolbert 0.129
Garett Guzman 0.112
Brian Dinkelman 0.102
Ramos 0.082
Steven Tolleson 0.073
Valencia 0.066
Brock Peterson 0.038
Span 0.019
Dustin Martin 0.029
Plouffe 0.009
Casilla <0
Singleton <0
Parmalee <0
Lis <0
Revere etc N/A (only one season pro ball)

Notes:

* denotes pitchers whose somewhat surprising high ranking is helped by major improvement (this is not to say that they had league average or worse numbers; as a matter of fact they all have much better than league average numbers). Are those people overlooked, or the formula needs tweaking? Probably both. I know that the formula needs tweaking, but take Delaney for example. He finished 2007 with an ERA of 1.03 and a WHIP of 0.86 had 16 BB and 83 Ks in 70 innings. No matter what he should be very high in this list.
I like that the numbers make some sense comparing pitchers to batters. It is true that the Twins system is richer in pitching prospects that batter and this is reflected here
Some refinement with the weights is needed. The actually formula penalizes people who have digressed, even if the played in higher levels (see Humber or Lis for examples); on the other hand 0 and <0 denotes average and below prospect...
When there are significant numbers I will run again for 2008
Cutoff age was 26 years old at 2007
I need to refine it so it includes first year prospects. As is to be included a prospect should have played 2 years of pro ball

here is my very preliminary top 25 list, at the end of 2007 season.

Delaney
Slowey
Gabino
Blackburn
Craig
Robertson
Pridie
Bass
Morales
Buscher
Duensing
Macri
De Paula
Burnett
Sergio Santos
Hughes
Romero
Lahey
Johnny Woodard
Rainville
Swarzak
Manship
Sosa
Tolbert
Van Mil
Hernandez
Brian Dinkelman
Mullins
Steven Tolleson
Valencia
Mulvey
Mijares

tidbits

Who would have thought that, at this point, the Twins would have scored more runs than the Yankees, Cleveland, Angels, and would trail Detroit only by 7?

Blackburn seems to be ok after the hit by Abreu (who, btw is a total class act and went to visit at the clubhouse).

The clown has struck again. How can a first place team deal with that turmoil? By not being a first place team for much longer....

And of course, Detroit cannot be in any less disarray and the Indians are making the Royals look like a powerhouse right after they got swept by the Twins. There are no excuses not to win the Central this year. Gardy's job should be on the line if they don't.

Speaking of, this guy would have been a great manager for the Twins. The Twins should snag him and give him a MiLB job until Gardy's contract is up or gets fired. Do you hear Bill Smith?

5/30/08

the top 25 Twins prospects according to scout.com

1 Luke Hughes
2 Danny Valencia
3 Tyler Robertson
4 Jeff Manship
5 Ben Revere
6 Steven Singleton
7 Ryan Mullins
8 Brian Buscher
9 Anthony Slama
10 Dustin Martin
11 Robert Delaney
12 Steven Tolleson
13 Chris Parmelee
14 Alex Burnett
15 Anthony Swarzak
16 Brian Dinkelman
17 David Winfree
18 Daniel Berlind
19 Deolis Guerra
20 Darnell McDonald
21 Rene Tosoni
22 Kevin Mulvey
23 Timothy Lahey
24 Jose Morales
25 Ben Julianel