Ranking Twins hitters based on offensive productivity

Today I am doing a slightly different exercise: I am ranking the Twins' hitters based on offensive productivity. What do I mean with "offensive productivity"? I take the old Runs Scored plus Runs Batted In measure (R+RBI) and divide it by Plate Appearances. This way hitters do get credit for both scoring and driving in runs (which are the 2 things a hitter is supposed to do) normalized by the opportunities (PAs) they had to do that. This numbers is pretty nice, because it comes to a familiar format, close to the Batting Average format that is very familiar to everyone who watches baseball. Here are the rankings (for the 2010 season, including last night's game) :

Justin Morneau: .333
Joe Mauer: .285
Jim Thome: .265
Delmon Young: .262
Jason Kubel: .250
Michael Cuddyer: .239
Denard Span: .232
Orlando Hudson: .230
Alexi Casilla: .191
J.J. Hardy: .185
Nick Punto: .173
Brendan Harris: .144
Drew Butera: .103

probably a few surprises there, mainly Span and Hardy who would appear more productive than what their numbers indicate.

Twins and RISP: The whole story

Recently there has been a lot of frustration about the Twins stranding runners and under-performing as a team in with runners in scoring position. Several places have been trying to look at the phenomenon and even some contributed it to 'bad luck'. All the analyses I have seen have one thing in common: They look at the team as a whole vs the individual players. Here I am looking at the difference of the overall batting average of each individual player from his batting average with RISP. I am looking at batting average, because a single is usually sufficient to score someone in scoring position and a walk does not help. Without further ado:

Casilla: Overall: .257; RISP: .333 (+.076)
Thome: Overall: .241; RISP: .300 (+.059)
Hardy: Overall: .243; RISP: .294 (+.051)
Span: Overall: .287; RISP: .324 (+.047)
Punto: Overall: .218; RISP: .250 (+.032)
Kubel: Overall: .217; RISP: .233 (+.016)

Mauer: Overall: .340; RISP: .341 (+.001)
Young: Overall: .263; RISP: .262 (-.001)

Morneau: Overall: .369; RISP: .306 (-.063)

Cuddyer: Overall: .278; RISP: .213 (-.066)
Hudson: Overall: .293; RISP: .217 (-.076)
Harris: Overall: .176; RISP: .077 (-.089)

So, it is unfair to dump the whole team in a bucket. Six players (Casilla, Thome, Span, Hardy, Kubel, Punto) have been hitting better with RISP than overall. Two others have been consistent (Mauer, Young). Morneau has a big drop with RISP, but he still is batting .306 in this situation, which has him 4th in BA with RISP in the team behind Mauer, Casilla and Span. The major culpits for the Twins' woes in this situation are Orlando Hudson, Michael Cuddyer and Brendan Harris. Three players. Not the whole team. There are enough substitutes (Casilla, Kubel, Punto) to limit the time of these 3 players.

Not luck, not a black cat, not a whole team fault. Just 3 players... who should sit until starting to heat up

In defense of Jesse Crain

It seems that these days, Jesse Crain has been the favorite target of the Twins' fanbase, bloggers, media and potentially his manager (if one reads between Gardenhire's words) as a result of the latest unsuccessful road trip on the East Coast, which resulted in elimination of the Division lead for the Twins and having the team tied in first place with the Detroit Tigers. Jesse Crain has been looked at as the sacrificial lamb, who needs to be cut from the team, to solve the Twins' woes, and his last name more times than not, appears on the internet hyphenated with "Wreck". Does he deserve the outcry for his dismissal? He must, since he is pitching in the rhythm of 6.88 ERA, has walked 5 and struck out only 12 in 17 innings and his WHIP is an ugly 1.588. Or doesn't he? Let's dig deeper into the numbers:

• Jesse Crain has been unlucky. His (opponents' batting average on balls in play, BABIP) is .346, which is inflated and will regress to the league norm of .295, resulting in lower WHIP and more effectiveness.


• Speaking of effectiveness... Jesse Crain has been effective (did not allow an earned run) in 12 of his 17 appearances this season. I understand that this might look like a surprise to some. If we look closer at 5 appearances he has been ineffective, 4 of them came with 3 days rest and one with no rest. Here is how opponents hit against Jesse Crain, based on how much rest Crain has before he pitches:
  
  
  
  • No rest: .444/.500/.889 (1.389 OPS)
  
  
  • 1 day rest: .286/.286/.357 (.643 OPS)
  
  
  • 2 days rest: .176/.176/.235 (.412 OPS)
  
  
  • 3 days rest: .417/.481/.917 (1.398 OPS)
  
  
  
  So, Jesse Crain has been effective other than when he pitched with no rest or 3 days of rest. This could be explained by the fact that his fastball has been his most ineffective pitch. A hard thrower like Crain needs some rest to command his fastball but not enough rest so that his fastball becomes too flat (which has been a general complain about Crain). So it looks like how and when Crain is used affects his stuff and not that "Crain has lost his stuff" per se



• So is a manager or a pitching coach supposed to be a seer and guess that when Crain has too much rest he is not himself, so they use him with less rest? Not exactly... Here are Crain's career numbers (opponents hitting) with various days of rest (same as above, but career, not only 2010 and just OPS, not slashlines):
  
  
  
  • No rest: .669 OPS
  
  
  • 1 day rest: .719 OPS
  
  
  • 2 days rest: .636 OPS
  
  
  • 3 days rest: .817 OPS
  
  
  
  Clearly, Crain has always been less effective when rested 3 days. His manager and pitching coach should have known that and not have allowed it to happen. They should set him up to succeed and not fail. As far as the discrepancy of the no rest numbers between 2010 and career go, it could be an artifact due to that single (the one of the 5) bad outing with no rest this season (5/18 0.1 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 1 HR) and just the sample might not be enough. The 3 days rest day, based on the career is significant




• So how much has Jesse Crain hurt the Twins in 2010: Not that much. His total win probability added (WPA) for 2010 is = -0.02, which is close to zero. Players like Cuddyer (WPA = -0.96, which is losing a game practically) and Drew Butera (WPA = -0.78) have hurt the Twins more. Could this be because Crain was good only when the game was not close? Let's look at the numbers. This is how opponents hit against Jesse Crain in 2010, in high leverage, medium leverage and low leverage situations:
  
  
  
  • High Leverage: .231/.286/.385 (.670 OPS)
  
  
  • Medium Leverage: .313/.353/.438 (.790 OPS)
  
  
  • Low Leverage: .333/.378/.690 (1.068 OPS)
  
  
  
  In other words, Crain has been very good when the game was close and not so good in mop-up role and really has not cost the Twins games this season.

What can one do to make Crain successful? I know that it might appear counter intuitive to many, but the above suggest:

• Use him only with 1 or 2 days rest


• Do not use him in mop up situations


• And Crain, truthfully, has pitched much better than his ERA suggests this season, really... (His FIP is 2 points less than his ERA, btw, for the ones who like that metric.) He just has not been used in the right manner and failed when used in the wrong manner. So it is unfair to him to be the sacrificial lamb for the Twins' struggles...
  

The Twins' most valuable corner outfielder?

Today is Delmon Young day in the Twins' blogosphere. The Delmon Young day, like the Nick Punto day, is the brainchild of Andrew Kneeland of Twins' Target. My premise today is simple: Let's examine who so far has been the most valuable corner outfielder for the Twins, especially since a corner outfield (Delmon Young so far) has been freequently on the bench in order for Ron Gardenhire to find plate appearances for both Jason Kubel and Thome. There are lot of personal opinions and biases, but numbers do not lie.

Lets compare Mike Cuddyer and Delmon Young this season using rate starts to be fair.

Hitting slash line: Cuddyer .275/.318/.442, .760 OPS; Young .287/.337/.479, .816 OPS. Advantage: Young across the board
BB/K ration: Cuddyer: 0.556, Young: 0.80. Advantage: Young
isoP: Cuddyer: .167, Young: .192. Advantage: Young
extra base hits/hits: Cuddyer: .316, Young: .444. Advantage: Young
% swings on pitches outside the strike zone: Cuddyer 38.5%, Young 37.3%. Advantage: Young
runs/hits+bb: Cuddyer: .354, Young: 0.400. Advantage: Young
win probability added : Cuddyer: -.88, Young: -.11. Advantage: Young
UZR (today's game not included): Cuddyer: -4.0, Young: +1.0. Advantage: Young
Range Factor per 9 innings (today's game not included): Cuddyer: 1.9, Young 2.1. Advantage: Young


Any way you dice it and slice it, Delmon Young has been more valuable for the Minnesota Twins this season than Mike Cuddyer. Numbers do not lie. Everything else is opinion and gut feelings. The majority of the Twins' fans, the vast majority of the sports media and bloggers covering the Twins, and, unfortunately, the one who makes the decisions, do not see it this way... and this hurts the Twins. It is time to take the blindfolds off and open the minds: Delmon Young is the most valuable Twins' outfielder so far this season and he should get more playing time than Mike Cuddyer when Jason Kubel and Jim Thome both need to be in the lineup.

Who is Hot in the Twins' Minors: Version 2

This is the second version of the 'who is hot in the Twins' minors' series. About a month into the minor league seasons now, it is not surprising to confirm that the Twins have a nice pitching depth in all levels of their minors (albeit, a little less as far as LHP go.) There are several pitchers in Rochester who can jump in and contribute with the big team, as necessary. In addition, pretty much the whole starting rotation in Beloit is hot, which might result to interesting moves as this month progresses.

The bats have cooled off a little bit, but it is nice to see that Aaron Hicks, the top prospect of the Twins, according to many, is heating up. Also nice, as far as the big club goes, is the fact that Jason Repko and Dustin Martin are hot in Rochester, in case the Twins need CF help (the only position that is not backed up well in the major league club).

Here is the list:

Catchers:


Infielders:
Matt Macri (RHB, 28, AAA) .360/.484/.640 1 HR, 3 RBI, 32 PA

Outfielders:

Dustin Martin (LHB, 26, AAA) .321/.404/.603 5 HR, 24 RBI, 89 PA
Jason Repko (RHB, 29, AAA) .313/.420/.507 3 HR, 7 RBI, 81 PA
Aaron Hicks (SHB, 20, A) .298/.433/.464 3 HR, 8 RBI, 104 PA

1st basemen/DH:


RH Starters:

Deolis Guerra (21,AA) 3.91 ERA, 1.043 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 8.50 K/BB
David Bromberg (22,AA) 1.12 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 3.17 K/BB
Bobby Lanigan (23, A+) 2.22 ERA, 0.918 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 6.25 K/BB
Kyle Gibson (22, A+) 1.96 ERA, 1.009 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 3.56 K/BB
Liam Hendricks (21, A) 0.64 ERA, 0.536 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, 10.67 K/BB
Tom Stuifbergen (21, A) 1.12 ERA, 1.031 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 4.00 K/BB
Brad Stillings (22, A) 0.93 ERA, 1.034 WHIP, 4.7 K/9, 1.67 K/BB

LH Starters:

Dan Osterbrock (23, A) 2.30 ERA, 0.951 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 5.40 K/BB

RH Relievers:

Matt Fox (27, AAA) 1.37 ERA, 1.068 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 1.89 K/BB
Anthony Slama (26, AAA) 1.96 ERA, 0.927 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 2.56 K/BB
Kyle Waldrop (24, AAA) 1.96 ERA, 1.036 WHIP, 5.4 K/9, 5.50 K/BB
Rob Delaney (25, AAA) 3.94 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 3.60 K/BB
Matthew Williams (23, A+) 2.84 ERA, 1.184 WHIP, 12.1 K/9, 5.67 K/BB
Kane Holbrooks (23, A) 1.26 ERA, 1.256 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 5.33 K/BB
Dakota Watts (22, A) 1.72 ERA, 1.277 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 2.13 K/BB

LH Relievers:

Spencer Steedley (25, AA) 2.70 ERA, 1.020 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 2.83 K/BB
Edgar Ibarra (21, A) 3.86 ERA, 0.771 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, 3.50 K/BB

Twins' Season Recap: The Good, The Bad and the Ugly

The Twins are 5 series into the 2010 season and here is a brief, short attention span bullet list of my random thoughts about young Twins' season, Spaghetti Western Style:



The Good:

• The Twins are 11-5 so far; if they continue at this rate, they will win 111 games


• The Twins have won every single series so far; if they continue at this rate, they will be World Champions


• Only one error in the season


• Five Twins hitters have equal or more walks than strikeouts


• Jon Rauch has been as effective as Joe Nathan in converting save opportunities


• The best uniforms in baseball (Saturday home and everyday road)


• The best outdoor park in the majors (Did I mention OUTDOOR?)


• Kevin Slowey and Fransisco Liriano solidifying the top 2 spots in the rotation


• 114 Team OPS+, 117 Team ERA+, easily translating to 81-56 Run Differential


• .357/.493/.554: Justin Morneau's slash line


• .310/.368/.519: Twins' team slash line, the second time they face an opposing starting pitcher


• .242/.292/.395: Twins' opponents' slash line with Runners In Scoring Position

The Bad:

• 4-4: The Twins' record in day games


• Injuries (Condrey, Blackburn, Neshek, Mijares, Punto)


• 20 out of 40: times runners at 3rd with less than 2 outs scored


• .228/.290/.351: J.J. Hardy's slashline vs. .262/.311/.452: Carlos Gomez' slashline with Milwaukee

The Ugly:

• Drew Butera's game calling (Twins' pichers have 1.11 K/BB and .779 Opponent OPS when Butera is catching vs 3.32 K/BB and .702 Opponent OPS when Mauer is catching)


• Cuddyer playing the bounces off the OF walls at Target Field


• The alternative home uniforms


• .180/.317/.320: Jason Kubel's slashline


• 40-man roster management

Lots of Good and much fewer Bad and Ugly. What are your thoughts about the Twins' season so far?

Who is Hot in the Twins' Minors: Version 1

The minor league seasons (other than the short season Rookie leagues) are well under way, so it's about time for the first version of the who is hot in the minors feature. I will be updating the list every week to ten days. Without further ado:

Catchers:


Infielders:
Paul Kelly (RHB, 23, A+) .400/.478/.450 0 HR, 1 RBI, 23 PA
Yangervis Solarte (SHB, 22, A+) .371/.436/.457 0 HR, 3 RBI, 39 PA
Drew Thompson (LHB, 23, A+) .314/.368/.486 1 HR, 4 RBI, 38 PA
Brian Dozier (RHB, 23, A) .357/.426/.429 0 HR, 3 RBI, 48 PA

Outfielders:

Dustin Martin (LHB, 26, AAA) .407/.484/.815 3 HR, 8 RBI, 31 PA
Jacque Jones (LHB, 35, AAA) .308/.400/.538 1 HR, 2 RBI, 30 PA
Rene Tosoni (LHB, 23, AA) .390/.444/.585 1 HR, 3 RBI, 46 PA


1st basemen/DH:


RH Starters:

David Bromberg (22,AA) 0.82 ERA, 0.727 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 2.67 K/BB
Bobby Lanigan (23, A+) 0.84 ERA, 0.656 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 4.50 K/BB
Kyle Gibson (22, A+) 2.70 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 6.00 K/BB
Liam Hendricks (21, A) 0.00 ERA, 0.412 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, 20.0 K/BB
Tom Stuifbergen (21, A) 0.00 ERA, 0.923 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 7.50 K/BB
Brad Stillings (22, A) 0.93 ERA, 1.034 WHIP, 4.7 K/9, 1.67 K/BB

LH Starters:

Tyler Robertson (22, AA) 3.09 ERA, 1.286 WHIP, 4.6 K/9, 3.00 K/BB

RH Relievers:

Matt Fox (27, AAA) 2.25 ERA, 0.875 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 2.00 K/BB
Anthony Slama (26, AAA) 2.25 ERA, 1.250 WHIP, 14.6 K/9, 2.60 K/BB
Kyle Waldrop (24, AAA) 1.12 ERA, 0.875 WHIP, 3.4 K/9, 3.00 K/BB
Rob Delaney (25, AAA) 2.84 ERA, 0.947 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 2.33 K/BB
Matthew Williams (23, A+) 0.00 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 12.5 K/9, 6.00 K/BB
Kane Holbrooks (23, A) 0.00 ERA, 1.179 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 5.00 K/BB
Dakota Watts (22, A) 2.79 ERA, 1.241 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 1.80 K/BB

LH Relievers:

Spencer Steedley (25, AA) 1.80 ERA, 0.700 WHIP, 12.6 K/9, 4.67 K/BB

How Bad was Mark Wegner's Strike Zone in Twins vs Red Sox?

With the naked eye and the Fox TV camera's that assessed the strike zone in today's Twins- Red Sox game, it was obvious that Mark Wegner had some curious ball strike calls and several players reacted to them (albeit in a civil manner). How bad was his strike zone?

Here are the Pitch Fx data from Brooksbaseball.com. Green is a called ball and Red is a called strike. Squares represent pitches thrown by Red Sox pitchers and triangle those thrown by Twins pitchers:



All in all it was a bad strike zone, but consistently bad for both teams. From a RHB vantage point, outside balls were called strikes and inside strikes were called balls.

Here is the team by team break down:

Twins: 9 strikes were called balls, 11 balls were called strikes
Red Sox: 8 strikes were called balls, 10 balls were called strikes

Pretty fair overall.

Regardless the quality of the strike zone, it was consistent and pitchers and catchers should have adjusted accordingly. So this one was not won or lost by the umpires.

The Twins Home Run Surge Is a Franchise First

I am sure there is a lot that has been written about the Minnesota Twins' home run power in this very early season by pens mightier than mine, so I do not want to repeat the facts, but will attempt to put it in a historic perspective: This is the first time in the Twins' franchise history (including the Senator years) that the team reached 9 team home runs 4 games into the season. Several other teams, most notably in the 2000s and the Killebrew Twins (not the Senators) have seasons when the reached the 9 HR marker in the first week of the season. Also, it is interesting that the 9 HR marker has been reached playing against the Angels more times than playing against any other team. Here is a list of the games and dates that the Twins' teams reached the 9 HR marker since they moved to Minnesota. In bold are the season the Twins reached that mark in the first week of games in that particular season and an asterisk marks the seasons they reached that mark against the Angels:

*2010: Game 4, April 9 at LAA
*2009: Game 12, April 17 vs. LAA
2008: Game 19, April 20 vs CLE
2007: Game 16, April 20 at KCR
2006: Game 7, April 11 vs OAK
2005: Game 7, April 12 vs DET
2004: Game 5, April 10 at DET
2003: Game 13, April 15 vs DET
2002: Game 6, April 7 at TOR
2001: Game 7, April 10 vs DET
2000: Game 7, April 9 at KCR
1999: Game 11, April 17 at CLE
1998: Game 11, April 12 at KCR
1997: Game 16, April 18 at SEA
1996: Game 13, April 17 vs CLE
1995: Game 11, May 7 at CLE
1994: Game 14, April 23 at TOR
1993: Game 9, April 16 vs MIL
1992: Game 14, April 22 at SEA
*1991: Game 12, April 21 at CAL
*1990: Game 12, April 21 vs CAL
1989: Game 10, April 16 at NYY
1988: Game 16, April 24 vs CLE
1987: Game 6, April 12 at SEA
1986: Game 9, April 16 vs OAK
*1985: Game 9, April 16 vs CAL
*1984: Game 12, April 17 vs CAL
*1984: Game 10, April 16 vs CAL
*1982: Game 6, April 11 vs CAL
*1981: Game 12, April 24 vs CAL
1980: Game 12, April 20 at SEA
*1979: Game 12, April 19 vs CAL
1978: Game 12, April 16 vs SEA
1977: Game 11, April 18 at KCR
1976: Game 16, May 4 at DET
1975: Game 19, May 4 vs KCR
1974: Game 16, April 24 at DET
*1973: Game 9, April 18 at CAL
1972: Game 13, May 5 at BOS
1971: Game 17, April 24 at NYY
1970: Game 7, April 18 at OAK
1969: Game 6, April 15 at OAK
1968: Game 7, April 18 vs WAS
1967: Game 12, April 28 at WAS
1966: Game 11, May 1 at WAS
1965: Game 6, April 22 at NYY
1964: Game 7, April 22 vs WAS
1963: Game 11, April 21 at CHW
1962: Game 7, April 18 vs CHW
1961: Game 7, April 21 vs WAS


After winning the series at Anaheim 3-1, the Twins traveled to Chicago and they play the White Sox in a 3 game series starting at 7:10 (CDT) tonight (It seems that the 7-11 stopped their sponsorship so the White Sox are starting their games in different times this season). Fransisco Liriano is taking the mound and the Twins are on their way of facing the team many predicted to be their strongest rival in the division this season. Be there. Twins Win!

Twins on Top of the Central and Other Tidbits

With their victory against the Angels last night at Anaheim, the Twins are in sole possession of the first place of the American League Central division and tonight with their ace, Kevin Slowey on the mount facing the Angels Joel Piniero ,who is 2-6 with 4.32 ERA and 1.484 WHIP in 15 games againt the Twins for his career (the Twins have an .807 OPS and hit 9 HR in 91.2 innings against him, with Mauer and Morneau leading the stats parade with 1.806 OPS in 20 PA and 1.601 OPS in 17 PA, against Pineiro respectively), the Twins have a further chance to solidify their lead in their division. Here are my thoughts from the game and the season so far:

• I think I like this home run happy team. The Twins had their second multi-home run game of the season and lead the AL (and tied with Arizona for the lead in the majors) with 6 HRs. The SS position produced 10 HRs last season, while the number 8 position in the lineup produced seven. J.J. Hardy already has 2.


• Pavano will be a solid pitcher for the Twins. As Ed Price indicated earlier this morning he is the only opposing pitcher since Brad Penny in June of 2006 to hold the Angels to less than 2 R in 7 seven or more innings without walking anyone and striking out six or more. A truly great performance and I hope the sign for many more good things to come. Food for thought: Pavano last season was as much removed from surgery as Liriano and Crain are this season. Liriano and Crain have beem much more improved, this might indicate that Pavano's arm might be close to his world championship season form


• Jon Rauch collected his second save of the season in 2 opportunities. As a reminder, Joe Nathan did not get his second save before game 12 of last season


• On an unrelated, with last night's game but very related to the Twins note:
  There have been several break-downs of Pat Neshek's delivery (this one from the Baseball Think Factory is exceptional) and recently, in the Twins' spring training game against the Phillies, the Phillies announcers described his delivery as "throwback" and indicated that it "reminded them of pitchers from the 1920s". I have always thought that I have seen a delivery like Pat's before and that 20s remark lit up a lightbulb. So, without further ado, I present you a former member of the Twins' franchise (and a legendary Hall or Famer) whose delivery has been re-incarnated into Pat Neshek: Walter Johnson, the big train
  
  
  

Game time at 7:05 PDT tonight. Be there. Twins win!

Random Thoughts from Twins' Second Game of the Season

The Twins beat the Angels last night to put their fist victory of the season in the books. Here are some random thoughts about the game:

• The hitting of the team so far has been phenomenal. And, yes, four different batters (Young, Mauer, Morneau, Hardy) hit home runs in these 2 first games of this young season, but this is not the whole story. A very interesting sign is that the hitters so far are 8/14 (.571) collectively in BB/K ratio. This is much better than last season, when after the first 2 (home) games that ratio was 6/19 (.317) and after the whole season 585/1021 (.546). So (and yes, it is a small sample size) this team does not only look more powerful (team isoP after two games is .219, which is higher than that of the Yankees' last season, .183), looks more patient. If they keep this up opposing rotations and bullpens will need to watch out.


• Blackburn is Mr. Consistent. It is fair to say that what you saw the last 2 seasons is what you get from him: Rope walking on a high rope over a burning pit. Sometimes he cruises to the other side, sometimes he has to stop and take a breath and sometimes he falls in the pit. He didn't last night


• The bullpen will be ok. Now everyone other that Alex Burnett has been though a game. Crain, Neshek and Guerrier were excellent in their spots, Mijares was beaten up pretty badly, but I am certain that this was just a bad outing, Duensing was ok, but faced a single batter and Rauch was lights out recording his first save as a Twin, pitching a perfect 9th and striking out 2 batters. Yes, there will be bad moments, but all in all I believe that this pen will be one of the strengths of this team


• Having an attempt to a snuggie-wearing world record (The Anaheim Stadium is right off Disneyland, so everything is possible) on Bert Blyleven's Birthday is a bad combination. Ergo:
  
  
  
  Bert looking like one of the Magi or Burger King donning a birthday cake hat and the aforementioned snuggie. Notice the shame of the person to his right, hiding his face from the cameras, while Dick, far left, cannot believe his eyes. Notice pitcher with unidentified brown liquid between Dick and Bert


• Last season the Twins went 1-3 through their Aneheim trip. This year they are guaranteed to at least match this record and possibly better it with Carl Pavano facing Santana tonight and their ace, Kevin Slowey taking the mount in the last game.

I am certain that this will be an exiting season for the Twins and their fans

8 reasons to rejoice after yesterday's Twins opening day

Rejoice all, it was opening day for the Twins yesterday, and despite the loss to the Angels just outside Disneyland, there are a lot of positives to take home from yesterday's game; in no particular order:

1. Delmon Young was an offensive machine (he practically provided all the Twins' offense and was fine on the field. He hit a two-run home run about 20 rows deep in the left field benches to tie the game at 2, then beat and infield single and stole second base on his way to scoring in a Punto sacrifice fly to shallow center field.

2. Pat Neshek had a great outing. He pitched a scoreless inning facing 4 batters and striking out one. His fastball averaged 87.2 mph (high 88, which is a couple mph less than his pre injury seasons, but it is very early in the season to discuss velocities) and he complemented it with a very effective slider. He would have had a perfect inning, if Cuddyer did not misjudge the ball on the single hit surrendered.

3. Jesse Crain has a suberb outing. He pitched one-and-two-third innings of perfect baseball striking out one. Mixing of pitches (something he did not do well for most part of last season) was the key to his success. He threw 9 fastballs (93.1 mph average, 94.3 max), 7 sliders (83.5 average, 84.4 max), 5 curve balls (74.5 average, 75.8 max). His slider was exceptional.

4. Yes there were some problems, but Denard Span will not usually strikeout 3 times in a game, Morneau and Young will not always leave the bases loaded, Cuddyer will not always misjudge balls and throw the ball wide to bases and Mijares will be effective. Scott Baker is a slow starter (Career 5.45 ERA and 1.335 WHIP in March/April vs. 4.30 ERA and 1.265 WHIP career total.)

5. Those new road uniforms are exceptional

6. It was opening day

7. Losses in opening day do not determine a season's result. Here are how the Twins' teams that made the post season (since the move to Minnesota) fared on their opening days during the times:

2009: Lost to Seattle 1-6
2006: Lost at Toronto 3-6
2004: Beat Cleveland 7-4
2003: Won at Detroit 3-1
2002: Won at Kansas City 8-6
1991: Lost at Oakland 2-7
1987: Beat Oakland 5-4
1970: Won at Chicago 12-0
1969: Lost at Kansas City 3-4
1965: Beat the Yankees 5-4

8. Today is another day and another game. Blackburn vs. Saunders, 7:05 PDT, Anaheim, CA. Be there

The Case for Pat Neshek as the Twins closer in 2010

Earlier this week I called my fellow Twins' bloggers to arms, introducing today, Friday 2, 2010, as "Free Pat Neshek day". The Twins' manager, Ron Garderhire, has decided to replace the injured Joe Nathan, by "a committee of closers", which will include, Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares and Jesse Crain, depending on the situation. I strongly believe that Pat Neshek should have been named the Twins' closer and I will give you my supporting arguments for feeling this way, bellow. Please stay tuned here during the day, because I will be editing this page adding links to the other Free Pat Neshek Day blogs in the bottom of the page, as they appear.

Why do I think that Pat Neshek deserves to be the 2010 closer for the Minnesota Twins? Let me count the ways:

1. Closer by Committee is not a good idea

Every ballplayer, especially bullpen pitchers will tell you that they would like to have an idea about their role and an idea about when they might go into a game based on that role to psychologically prepare themselves. A closer committee of 4 would destroy this and will overtax the pen, especially with Gardenhire's tendacies to play matchups and keep pitchers to face same handed batters. A closer needs to be named.


2. Pat Neshek has excelled in every step of his career

A little known fact is that the Twins liked Pat Neshek enough to draft him twice: In the 44th round of the 1999 draft out of Park Center High School in Brooklyn Park, MN (he did not sign but elected to attend Bulter University) and in the 6th round of the 2002 draft as a College junior. He was the only player drafted from a Butler team that finished 34-24 and in the 4th place of the Horizon League. He was signed by Twins' scout Bill Milos who also signed Joe Benson, Brian Dinkelman, Erik Lis and Jeff Manship.

Pat made the transition from an average starter (13 GS -and 7 complete games!- 1.36 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 4.23 K/BB) in his college junior year to a lights out reliever (0.695 WHIP, 6.83 K/BB, 13.5 K/9, 15 saves) in Elizabethton (high rookie) the same season (2002). And Pat never looked back: In 2003, playing in Quad Cities (A), Fort Myers (high A) and New Britain (AA) he pitched in a rhythm of 0.967 WHIP, 11 K/9, 4.35 K/BB for a season total of 17 saves. And this is moving up 3 levels. In 2004, he had a setback in New Britain after starting the season in Ft Myers and still delivered a 1.304 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 and 2.85 K/BB. In 2005 he was the New Britain close with 24 saves, 1.093 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 and 4.52 K/BB. Next season he was promoted to Rochester (AAA) where he finished that campaign with 14 saves, 0.917 WHIP, 13 K/9 and 6.21 K/BB before he was promoted to the Twins, where he was instrumental in their drive to the division title, finishing his rookie MLB season with 0.784 WHIP, 12.9 K/9 and 8.83 K/BB. The next season, 2007, he was the Twins' main set up man and produced 1.009 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 and 2.74 K/BB. He was hurt in 2008 and only pitched in 15 games. He was instructed to rest his arm and when that did not work, he underwent Tommy John surgery missing the entire 2009 season.


3. Lets look how Neshek's career performance compares to a couple of "desirable" closers

If the Twins were to announce that they have traded for a healthy Huston Street or Heath Bell, there would have been a huge sigh of relief (pun intended,) by the collective Twins' Territory. Here is a comparison of the MLB career numbers of Huston Street and Heath Bell to those of Pat Neshek (best in each pair, in bold):

WHIP Steet: 1.040, Neshek: 0.961
K/9 Street: 9.30, Neshek: 10.65
K/BB Street: 3.75, Neshek: 3.84
OBA in save situations: Street: .215, Neshek: .183
OBA of first batter faced: Street: .227, Neshek: .131
OBA in high leverage situations: Street: .234, Neshek: .154

WHIP Bell: 1.205 Neshek: 0.961
K/9 Bell: 9.20, Neshek: 10.65
K/BB Bell: 3.19, Neshek: 3.84
OBA in save situations: Bell: .232, Neshek: .183
OBA of first batter faced: Bell: .222, Neshek: .131
OBA in high leverage situations: Bell: .228, Neshek: .154

The truth (which a lot of people apparently do not want to see) is that Neshek has pitched better in his career than Huston Street and Heath Bell, especially in situations critical to a closer.To add to this point, here is a comparison of the career numbers of Joe Nathan and Pat Neshek:

WHIP Nathan: 1.107, Neshek: 0.961
K/9 Nathan: 9.40, Neshek: 10.65
K/BB Nathan: 2.74, Neshek: 3.84
OBA in save situations: Nathan: .140, Neshek: .183
OBA of first batter faced: Nathan: .201, Neshek: .131
OBA in high leverage situations: Nathan: .190, Neshek: .154

It looks to me that the "irreplaceable", could potentially be replaced with someone who has been more effective in his career than Joe Nathan.


4. Let's bust some myths

Myth #1: To be a successful closer, a pitcher needs MLB closing experience and Pat Neshek has no closer experience.

Pat Neshek finished 164 games in the minors and accumulated 82 saves. This is more than most close have in their minor league careers before they assume the closer role. As I indicated last week, Neshek's performance indicates that he would make a better closer than other options (e.g Rauch) who did save games in their MLB careers. As a matter of fact, Luis Ayala has 18 career saves in the majors, last time I checked, he is still available...

Myth #2: A closer has to be able to pitch in back to back games, and in 3 games in a row and Neshek might not be able to do that.

This is a good one for a couple of reasons: first of all, the Twins have not tried to see whether Neshek can pitch back to back games this spring, they just assumed that he can not. Secondly, this is more of a fiction than a fact. If you look at the 70 games that Nathan appeared in 2009, only 22 of his appearances (that's less than a third, if you keep score) were back to back. And before Nathan was named the Twins' closer, he never pitched back to back games. Also, the Twins cannot assume that Pat Neshek cannot pitch back to back games unless they hand him the ball in back to back games and he proves them right (hopefully he proves them wrong.)

Myth #3: Pat's delivery is "too funky" to be a closer.

Dan Quisenberry and Kent Tekulve beg to disagree

Myth #4: you cannot trust a closer 1.5 years removed from Tommy John surgery.

Let's look at the performance of all relievers who had Tommy John surgery and compare their performance the year before surgery with the year they came back from surgery. Fortunately (or unfortunately) there is a large number of them so the sample size is not small (age of surgery in parenthesis for some), to see how "trustworthy" they were after they came back from Tommy John surgery


Luis Ayala:
2005: 2.66 ERA, 1.254 WHIP, 5.1 K/9, 2.86 K/BB
2007: 3.19 ERA, 1.299 WHIP, 6.0 K/9, 2.33 K/BB

Danny Baez:
2007: 6.44 ERA, 1.570 WHIP, 5.2 K/9, 1.0 K/BB
2009: 4.02 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, 5.0 K/9, 1.82 K/BB

Rod Beck (33):
2001: 3.90 ERA, 1.302 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 2.25 K/BB, 6 SV
2003: 1.78 ERA, 1.019 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 2.91 K/BB, 22 SV

Ryan Dempster:
2003: 6.54 ERA, 1.764 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 1.20 K/BB (as a starter)
2005: 3.13 ERA, 1.435 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 1.82 K/BB, 33 SV

Octavio Dotel:
2005: 3.52 ERA, 1.370 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 1.45 K/BB, 7 SV
2007: 4.11 ERA, 1.337 WHIP, 12.0 K/9, 3.42 K/BB, 11 SV

Brendan Donnelly (36):
2007: 3.05 ERA, 1.161 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 3.00 K/BB
2009: 1.78 ERA, 1.224 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 2.78 K/BB

Willie Eyre:
2007: 5.16 ERA, 1.618 WHIP, 5.6 K/9, 1.31 K/BB
2009: 4.50 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 4.0 K/9, 1.33 K/BB

John Franco (41):
2001: 4.05 ERA, 1.388 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 2.63 K/BB
2003: 2.62 ERA, 1.398 WHIP, 4.2 K/9, 1.23 K/BB

Al Reyes (35):
2005: 2.15 ERA, 0.926 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 3.35 K/BB, 2 SV
2007: 4.90 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 3.33 K/BB, 26 SV

Arthur Rhodes (37):
2006: 5.32 ERA, 1.686 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 4 SV
2008: 2.04 ERA, 1.245 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 2 SV

David Riske (23):
1999: 8.36 ERA, 1.857 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, 2.67 K/BB
2001: 1.98 ERA, 1.390 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 1.61 K/BB, 1 SV

Fernando Rodney (26):
2003: 6.07 ERA, 1.753 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 1.94 K/BB, 3 Sv
2005: 2.86 ERA, 1.273 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 2.47 K/BB, 9 SV

B. J. Ryan (31):
2006: 1.37 ERA, 0.857 WHIP, 10.7 K/9, 4.3 K/BB, 38 SV
2008: 2.95 ERA, 1.276 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 2.07 K/BB, 32 SV

Rafael Soriano (24):
2003: 1.53 ERA, 0.792 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 5.67 K/BB, 1 SV
2005: 2.45 ERA, 0.955 WHIP, 11.0 K/9, 9.00 K/BB

John Smoltz (33):
1999: 3.19 ERA, 1.116 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 3.9 K/BB (as a starter)
2001: 3.36 ERA, 1.068 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 5.7 K/BB, 10 SV

Billy Wagner (36):
2008: 2.30 ERA, 0.894 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 5.20 K/BB
2009: 1.72 ERA, 1.021 WHIP, 14.9 K/9, 3.25 K/BB


So chances are that Pat Neshek will be fine...



5. He is more trusted by the fans than the rest of the Twins' bullpen arms

Not much of a scientific argument (or any argument at all) towards having Pat as a closer, but as you can see in this Star Tribune Poll or about 2500 Twins' fans more fans trust Pat than anyone else in the Twins' pen. Not a supportive argument at all, just a statement, albeit an important one.

There is a lot of evidence that Pat Neshek is the best pitcher to assume the closer role for the 2010 season. It is up to Gardy and Andy to do the right thing.



A final note: There are several other Twins' bloggers participating in this Pat Neshek day. I will be listing links to their blogs, as they appear here, so please come back (Note to Twins' bloggers participating: please leave your blog URL in comments or send me an email so I can link it here).

Other Pat Neshek Day Blogs:

2010 MLB predictions

Spring training is almost over; so here are my prediction about the MLB division champions and the post-season results and player awards this season:

AL EAST: Red Sox
AL CENTRAL: Twins
AL WEST: Rangers
AL WILD CARD: Mariners

AL CHAMPION: Twins

NL EAST: Philadelphia
NL CENTRAL: Pittsburgh
NL WEST: Giants
NL WILD CARD: Marlins

NL CHAMPION: Marlins

World Champion: Twins in 6

AL MVP: Joe Mauer
AL CY YOUNG: Kevin Slowey
AL comeback player of the year: Pat Neshek


ML MVP: Hanley Ramirez
NL CY YOUNG: Josh Johnson
NL comeback player of the year: Jose Reyes

Free Pat Neshek day: April 2nd

Andrew Kneeland established last February 12th as Nick Punto day, an event where all the Twins' bloggers made a post about Nick Punto. With the current situation in the Twins' bullpen (the Manager of the Millennium brilliantly decided to go with a 'closer by committee' approach to replace injured Joe Nathan,) I would like to take the opportunity and call my fellow Twins' bloggers to a call to virtual arms, establishing April 2nd as the "Free Pat Neshek" day.

I will be posting a post celebrating the return of Pat Neshek to the Twins' team and discussing why he is the best person in the Twins' organization to be names as the Twins' closer.

Anyone else of the Twins' bloggers care to join me in the Free Pat Neshek day?

By the numbers: Potential Joe Nathan Replacements

By now a few million pages of virtual ink have been used to report and discuss Joe Nathan's elbow ligament injuring and to make pro and con arguments regarding a potential Joe Nathan replacements. I will take a slightly different direction in looking for that potential replacement: I will look at the performance of the Twins' internal closer candidates in 3 situations that are pretty important for closers (in save situations, when leading off an inning, and in high leverage situations.) I will compare these numbers to the AL average pitcher numbers as well as to those of Joe Nathan. In addition, I will look at both career and 2009 numbers, just to be fair to pitchers like Pat Neshek. It is an interesting exercise that I think might tell us more things about the state of the Twins' pen than who is the best replacement for Joe Nathan.

The Twins' pitchers' performance (measured by opponent's OPS in each of the 3 situations) has been tabulated below in the following manner:

CSS and 2009SS = Opponents' OPS in save situations (AL average for 2009 = .685) career and 2009
CLEAD and 2009LEAD = Opponents' OPS leading off an inning (AL average for 2009 = .761) career and 2009
CHIGHL and 2009HIGHL = Opponents' OPS in high leverage situations (AL average for 2009 = .754) career and 2009

to provide a quick visual, the performance of Twins' pitchers for each category better than the 2009 AL average in the category is indicated in bold and the performance of Twins' pitchers for each category better than Joe Nathan's in the same category is indicated with green.



Surprised? I surely am.

A few housekeeping items:

• I included every Twins' reliever projected to be on the 25 man roster as well as Liriano and Perkins who have been mentioned as potential candidates (btw, I doubt that Liriano will be a candidate because he would need to start pitching 1 inning at a time vs. 3 in spring training to assume the role)
  
• Liriano faced only 20 batters in save situations and Perkins only 10, so those results need to be taken with a grain of salt the size of the Dead Sea.
  
• These numbers are a bit of smoothie (mixing apples and oranges and other fruit) because in everything else than save situations, starter and reliever numbers are mixed. This is true for the individual pitchers as well as the league averages. So this is a high level view and not a prognostication of sorts
  
• Anthony Slama and Robert Delaney have been mentioned as possibilities. I think that the probability of the Twins handing the closer job to person with zero experience in the majors are close to zero
  

Here are my thoughts based on the above table:

• It will be hard to replace Joe Nathan
  
• Only Jose Mijares (a name that has barely been mentioned as a potential replacement) and Pat Neshek (who hasn't pitched for 2 years) come close to Nathan's production in those critical situations for a closer
  
• The leading candidate's in many people's minds (Joe Rauch's) performance has been below that of an AL average pitcher in all of those situations in 2009
  
• Having Fransisco Liriano as a closer is probably a bad idea
  
• Glen Perkins can probably make an above average reliever
  
• Clay Condrey is not much better than what Jesse Crain has been in his horrible 2009 season
  
• Matt Guerrier is a solid pitcher, but his .910 opponents' OPS leading off innings in 2009 is scary
  

Who will the new Twins' closer be? Who should he be? It is hard to tell, but based on the facts that a. Mijares has less than stellar reputation with the organization as far as off the field situations go (and I do not see them "rewarding" him with the closer position) and b. Neshek has not pitched for 2 years, I will not be surprised if the Twins go outside the organization for a replacement. That said, my gut feeling is that they will let all the above (minus Liriano) compete for the position this spring and nominate a closer based on spring training performance. If that person falters, then they will seek a replacement outside the organization during the season.

A couple of other things that need to be mentioned:

a. This is another case that the Twins' medical staff has checked someone for an injury during the season or just after the season, they took action and then the injury got worse. Slowey, Neshek, Bonser are all such examples. Something has to be done about this.

b. From the MLB pitchers that have been in the Twins' organization for a while, only Matt Guerrier and Nick Blackburn have not had major injuries (Slowey's was accidental - hit by a batted ball- but the organization gave him the ok to pitch hurt). The pitching coach and the manager should be held accountable for this.

What are your thoughts?

And from the news of the weird department: Newsbobber published its list of the top 60 Minnesota Twins' blogs. Thanks to the readership, this blog was ranked 17th, higher than Joe C's Star Tribune blog. So it has to be a mistake :) (Edit: it seems that they fixed that mistake, after all)

Delmon Young weight loss: Before and after pictures

Delmon Young reported to camp 30-35 lbs lighter. How does the new Delmon look? Without further ado:

New Delmon:



2009 Delmon:

2010 Twins minor league "dark horses": the outfield

A few days ago, I examined the potential "dark horses" for the Twins among infield players in their system and suggested that Luke Hughes has the potential to be such a player in 2010. Today, I will try to identify an outfielder in the Twins' system with dark horse potential, and in a later post I will conclude the series with a pitcher.

It is very well known and very frequently discussed, that with the trade of Carlos Gomez to the Milwaukee Brewers for J.J. Hardy and the release of Jason Pridie, despite the fact that the Twins will have 4 outfielders in the major league roster, the only one who can play the center field successfully is Denard Span. Gardenhire has indicated that Cuddyer, Casilla, Punto and Tolbert will play some CF this spring in order to potentially play there if a need arises but not even in Ron Gardenhire's wildest dreams, if there is an injury (or a medical issue like last season) to Denard Span, which will keep him out of action for more than a week or so, any of these options are viable.

The Twins have Ben Revere, a highly rated prospect in the system, and he might get an early call to action; Dustin Martin is ok at CF and Jacque Jones recently returned home, embraced by the organization like the prodigal son. Could any of them be a dark horse? Potentially (also add Rene Tosoni to the equation), but the player who has caught my interest, is another one: Jacque Jones' teammate with the Newark Bears last season, Charlton Jimerson.

Lets examine the facts of his minor league career: Charlton Jimerson is fast, has some power, but strikes out about 5-6 times more than he walks (in a good season). That is the recipe for a failure to make the majors and would point out that the guy is a career minor leaguer at best. To tell the truth, this was my perception at the announcement of his signing but I dug a bit more; and here are the reasons why I think that Charlton Jimerson could be a dark horse for the Twins in 2010:

a. He is a survivor in life. When life threw lemons at Charlton, he did not only make lemonade, he made a top shelf Margarita. You can read more about his childhood here but this is a summary: Middle of 5 kids, dad left the house very early, mom was a crack cocaine addict, older sister was supporting the family as a teenager working 3 jobs and when Charlton was 15 he and his younger brothers were awarded custody to their older brother who just had turned 19. Not many people have dealt with this kind of situations and all Charlton did was to attend the University of Miami with an academic scholarship and made the team (one of the most competitive College baseball teams, btw) as a walk in. This says a lot about, not only his character, but his determination and perseverance. What if he has been a career minor leaguer and played independent league ball last season at age 29? He has been in much worse situations in his life and came out of them shining.

b. He made the best out of the meager opportunities he had in the majors. He was called up as a September call-up in 4 seasons (2 each with Seattle and Houston). He played in 31 games but had only 9 at bats total (he was used as a pinch runner and defensive replacement). But... he is on the rare club of players who hit a home run at the first major league at bat and his total line has been .444/.444/1.111 with 2 HR, 4 SB and 8 runs scored (in only 9 AB).

c. He strikes out a lot, but does make contact, and when he makes contact he hits the ball hard. Also he is fast, a good fielder and a stolen base threat. Here is his career MiLB line: .258/.312/.456; 144 HR, 185 2B, 261 SB, 4303 AB (this projects to 22 HR, 28 2B and 40 SB over 650 AB). One may say that minor league numbers will not translate. Here is a comparable, exactly the same age as Charlton Jimerson: Garrett Jones. Garrett's career MiLB line is .258/.312/.450 (eerily, practically identical to Charlton Jimerson's). All Garrett Jones did was to hit .293/.372/.567 with 21 HRs in 314 AB with the Pirates last season. Another comparable slash line (with a twist) : .254/.304/.444; Joe Crede's career MLB line. And Charlton Jimerson has at least as much power as the other two plus a 40 SB potential plus good OF defense in all 3 places, esp. CF. Furthermore, his line last season with the Newark Bears (competition level probably equivalent to AA or the Mexican league) was: .335/.387/.567 21 HR, 38 SB and a reasonable (career best) 36 BB to 88 K. If a Twins' AA player posted these numbers the organization, the fans and the press would have declared him the next best thing out there...

These are the reasons for which I think that Charlton Jimerson has the potential to be a dark horse for the Twins in 2010, plus he is a great guy to root for...

Twins minor league "dark horses" for 2010: the infield

Once upon a baseball season, there are these rare minor league players who seem to come from nowhere, are called up usually due to injury and do have an unexpected impact with the organization. You do not find those players on the top 10 talent prospect lists of a system, but players like this do exist. A recent example for the Minnesota Twins is Denard Span whose (albeit being a former first round pick) performance in the minors made the Twins to look for outfielders outside their system. Span came up in the 2008 season after Michael Cuddyer's injury and played well enough to win a staring position in 2009 and allow the Twins the luxury of trading Carlos Gomez for J.J. Hardy. Another similar case is Jose Mijares, who practically came out of nowhere in September of 2008 and solidified the left side of the pen for the final run.

Who are the potential dark horses in the Twins' minor leagues that might be 2010s Mijares and Span?

Here are my thoughts as far as the infielders go:

Danny Valencia is the popular choice. Actually, he is not that dark of a horse. It is almost anticipated (I should say "expected") by the Twins' fans (and front office) that Valencia will be with the club in 2010 sometime and will be the Twins' third baseman of the future. So, sorry Danny, the expectations (fair or not) are there for you.

However, there is another infielder in the Twins system who might surprise people this season. And he is Luke Hughes. Luke has a career minor league line of .270/.333/.421 including a .259/.344/.481 campaign in Rochester for 157 plate appearances before he was injured last season. The usual "knock" on Hughes is that he "is bad with the glove". My impression is that he is just playing in the wrong position, at 3B, instead of at 2B, which is his best defensive position. How good a second basement is he? There are not any advanced fielding metrics for minor leagues, I would have to resort to Fielding Percentage and Range Factor per Game (I know... but they can be just an indicator, and nothing more or nothing less). Lets look at some career numbers of 2B fielding:

Luke Huges (MiLB) : FP .971, RF/G 4.14

Nick Punto (MLB) : FP .985, RF/G 4.28
Orlando Hudson (2009) FP .984, RF/G 4.72

ok, clearly he is not at the Punto/Hudson level, yet, but he is 25 years old. Let's compare his numbers with those of another Twins' second baseman:

Matt Tolbert (MiLB) : FP .972, RF/G 4.24

That is pretty close, and Hughes is better with the bat and 3 years younger than Tolbert. If Tolbert's defense is serviceable, Hughes should be. With consistent playing at second base, he could turn into a Dan Uggla-type of player if he reaches his power potential as he gets closer to his prime. For comparison, Dan Uggla's career Minor League line is .276/.347/.442 (which is in Hughes' ballpark and that includes a .297/.378/.502 AA campaign line -569 PA- in his age 25 season, whereas Hughes has not played his age 25 season yet.) Dan Uggla's career fielding line in the minors was .962 FP and 4.41 RF/G. Does this mean that Luke Hughes can be the next Dan Uggla? No. But it means that their minor league hitting and fielding has been comparable so far and I would not be surprised if Luke Hughes is a dark horse for the Twins these season.

Joe Mauer's beard

Despite of what Eric Olson wrote today, the AP Paparazzi did their job, and here is a photo of that elusive beard:



Rumor has it, that it will be gone tomorrow...