Last night I published my list of the top 25 Twins' pitching prospects; without further ado, here is my list of the top 25 position player prospects in the Twins' organization.
1. Aaron Hicks, OF
2. Ben Revere, OF
3. Wilson Ramos, C
4. Angel Morales, OF
5. Danny Valencia, 3B,
6. Chris Parmalee, OF-1B
7. Miguel Sano, SS
8. Joe Benson, OF
9. Oswaldo Arcia, OF
10. Brian Dozier, SS
11. Chris Herrmann, OF
12. Brian Dinkelman, INF
13. Max Kepler-Rozycki, OF
14. Rene Tosoni, OF
15. Josmil Pinto, C-DH
16. Steve Singleton, INF
17. Derek McCallum, 2B
18. Luke Hughes, INF
19. Tobias Streich, C
20. Trevor Plouffe, SS
21. Ramon Santana, INF
22. Danny Rams, C
23. Juan Portes, OF
24. Romy Trinidad, OF
25. Steve Liddle, OF
A note: Steve Tolleson, who was claimed by the Oakland Athletics after he was removed from the 40-man roster to make room for Jim Thome, was listed as number 22.
2/5/10
Top 25 list of Twins pitching prospects
I thought that I would start a a countdown of the Twins' 25 best pitching and position prospects, but time and business had other thoughts...
So I present you here my take of the top 25 Twins' pitching prospects. Position players will come soon:
1. Kyle Gibson, RHP
2. Adrian Salcedo, RHP
3. Carlos Gutierrez, RHP
4. David Bromberg, RHP
5. Billy Bullock, RHP
6. B.J. Hermsen, RHP
7. Pedro Guerra, RHP
8. Anthony Slama, RHP
9. Matt Bashore, LHP
10. Tom Stuifbergen, RHP
11. Anthony Swarzak RHP
12. Tyler Robertson, LHP
13. Alex Burnett, RHP
14. Deolis Guerra, RHP
15. Ben Tootle, RHP
16. Jeff Manship, RHP
17. Rob Delaney, RHP
18. Loek Van Mil, RHP,
19. Dan Osterbroeck LHP
20. Andrei Lobanov, LHP
21. Blayne Weller, RHP
22. Brad Tippett, RHP
23. Bobby Lanigan, RHP
24. Wilson Sanchez, RHP
25. Mike McCardel, RHP
So I present you here my take of the top 25 Twins' pitching prospects. Position players will come soon:
1. Kyle Gibson, RHP
2. Adrian Salcedo, RHP
3. Carlos Gutierrez, RHP
4. David Bromberg, RHP
5. Billy Bullock, RHP
6. B.J. Hermsen, RHP
7. Pedro Guerra, RHP
8. Anthony Slama, RHP
9. Matt Bashore, LHP
10. Tom Stuifbergen, RHP
11. Anthony Swarzak RHP
12. Tyler Robertson, LHP
13. Alex Burnett, RHP
14. Deolis Guerra, RHP
15. Ben Tootle, RHP
16. Jeff Manship, RHP
17. Rob Delaney, RHP
18. Loek Van Mil, RHP,
19. Dan Osterbroeck LHP
20. Andrei Lobanov, LHP
21. Blayne Weller, RHP
22. Brad Tippett, RHP
23. Bobby Lanigan, RHP
24. Wilson Sanchez, RHP
25. Mike McCardel, RHP
2/4/10
An Orlando Hudson Primer
The Twins have just signed Orlando Hudson to play second base for them and probably bat second in the lineup, between Span and Mauer. An unlikely MLB success, drafted in the 43th round on the 1997 draft, the switch hitting second baseman, made the majors in his age 24 season with the Toronto Bluejays, after posting a career .287/.354/.433 minor league line.
How probable is that Orlando Hudson, whose nickname is O-dog, to succeed with the Twins? One interesting fact is that (the now 32 year old) has a major league line of .282/.348/.431, which almost matches his minor league career line. Furthermore, he has been very consistent throughout his career.
One possible question is that this will be his age 32 season and that he might be on the declining side of his career. It looks like Orlando Hudson will replacing another Orlando (Cabrera) in the Twins' lineup, but Cabrera will be 35 years old in the next season.
Here is a table that shows various measurements in Hudson's MLB career:
It is clear that his OPS+ and OBP are steady the last few years, which is a decent indicator that he is still in his prime (and it is just an one year contract). There is a noticeable decrease in his defensive abilities, as shown by UZR/150 (despite the fact that he won the NL 2B gold glove in 2009) and he is swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone than he did earlier in his career. Despite these warning signs, he is a valuable pick up, who would most likely bat second in the lineup (getting some good pitches to hit in front of Mauer) and getting on base on a higher rate that the Twins' second basemen did last season (.302) and the second spot batters (.306).
This team is finally looking like a contender.
An interesting numerical comparison using the Baseball Reference numbers.
Here is the list of Hudson's most similar batters by age (and their similarity scores) :
25 Tim Teufel (982)
26 Tim Teufel (976)
27 Ron Belliard (957)
28 Carlos Guillen (958)
29 Marcus Giles (953)
30 Ron Belliard (951)
31 Todd Walker (953)
Interesting to see 2 previous Twins in the comparison, but I would take a Todd Walker in his prime and with a better glove that what the Twins had on second base, since the first year of Castillo.
Welcome to Minny Orlando Hudson!
How probable is that Orlando Hudson, whose nickname is O-dog, to succeed with the Twins? One interesting fact is that (the now 32 year old) has a major league line of .282/.348/.431, which almost matches his minor league career line. Furthermore, he has been very consistent throughout his career.
One possible question is that this will be his age 32 season and that he might be on the declining side of his career. It looks like Orlando Hudson will replacing another Orlando (Cabrera) in the Twins' lineup, but Cabrera will be 35 years old in the next season.
Here is a table that shows various measurements in Hudson's MLB career:
It is clear that his OPS+ and OBP are steady the last few years, which is a decent indicator that he is still in his prime (and it is just an one year contract). There is a noticeable decrease in his defensive abilities, as shown by UZR/150 (despite the fact that he won the NL 2B gold glove in 2009) and he is swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone than he did earlier in his career. Despite these warning signs, he is a valuable pick up, who would most likely bat second in the lineup (getting some good pitches to hit in front of Mauer) and getting on base on a higher rate that the Twins' second basemen did last season (.302) and the second spot batters (.306).
This team is finally looking like a contender.
An interesting numerical comparison using the Baseball Reference numbers.
Here is the list of Hudson's most similar batters by age (and their similarity scores) :
25 Tim Teufel (982)
26 Tim Teufel (976)
27 Ron Belliard (957)
28 Carlos Guillen (958)
29 Marcus Giles (953)
30 Ron Belliard (951)
31 Todd Walker (953)
Interesting to see 2 previous Twins in the comparison, but I would take a Todd Walker in his prime and with a better glove that what the Twins had on second base, since the first year of Castillo.
Welcome to Minny Orlando Hudson!
1/28/10
12/22/09
Twins' Top 25 Pitching Prospect Countdown: 21-25
This off-season I am doing a list of the 50 best Twins' prospects, just I did last season. Like last season, I am dividing them into pitchers and position players. This is the first installment and will feature the pitchers ranked from 20-25, in reverse order. After I finish the top 25 countdown of the pitching prospects, I will start the countdown of the position prospects. The ages of the players listed will be their ages next season.
There we go:
25. Mike McCardell, 6'5", 220 lbs RHP, 25. Mike McCardell was drafted in the 6th round of the 2007 draft from Kutztown University and has moved fairly fast through the Twins' system in his 3 years as a pro starting with the GCL Twins (Rookie-) in 2007 and moving to New Britain (AA) after starting the season at Ft. Myers in 2009. McCardell last season (3.93 ERA, 1.213 WHI, 3.5 K/9, 4.88 K/BB with the Miracle in 94 innings, 17 starts and 4.10 ERA, 1.262 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 2.50 K/BB in 48.1 innings, 9 starts with the Rock Cats) was somewhat of a dissapointment compared to his previous seasons, when his WHIP was consistently under 1.000, his ERA consistently under 3 and his K/9 consistently over 9. McCardell has a two seamer and a four seamer in the high 80s, and his out pitch is a curve. He also features a change up. McCardell is a control artist who has to pitch close to the strike zone and get ahead of hitters to be successful, since he cannot blow batters away. This season, batters at the higher levels seems to lay off his curve on the dirt, leading to fewer strikeouts and more walks and hits. Another potential issue is that he might not be durable as a starter (average start just over 5.4 innings). He projects as a middle reliever in the majors. He will probably start his age 25 season next year in New Britain and might move to Rochester depending on the needs of the organization. ETA: 2012
24. Wilson Sanchez, 6'1", 175 lbs, RHP, 19. For a while, I have been claiming that the DSL Twins club has some of the best pitchers in the organization. Thanks to Adrian Salcedo's success this season north of the border in the GCL, the DSL prospects will hopefully get more recognition from the fans and the organization, before the cross the border. Wilson Sanchez was signed as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic in late 2008 and he has his first professional season in 2009, where he put numbers better than what Adrian Salcedo did in 2008 at the DSL: 14 GS, 73.1 IP, 0.914 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 4.75 K/BB. His main pitch is a four seam fastball that sits at low to mid 90s but has a lot of deceptive movement. His secondary pitches (a slider and a change up) are works in progress at this point. Too early to project his career path, but if learns to master a change up and develop a good third pitch, he will open some eyes. He should start next season at the GCL. ETA: 2014
23. Bobby Lanigan, 6'4", 220 lbs, RHP, 23. Bobby Lanigan was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2008 draft from Adelphi University. After he spent the 2009 season in Elizabethton, he started the 2009 season in Beloit and moved up to Ft. Myers for 7 innings. He started 22 games in Beloit, accumulating a 4.52 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 3.52 K/BB in 123.1 innings. He possesses a low to mid 90s fastball and a change up that has not been perfected; however, he might have the best slider in the Twins' minor league system. This season in Ft. Myers he was used primarily as a reliever (he made 2 starts and 5 relieve appearances) and as a reliever he help opponents to a .175 batting average compared to a .271 (combined Beloit and Ft. Myers) as a starter. Lanigan projects as a future late inning reliever and will probably assume the role full time in Ft. Myers next season. ETA: 2013
22. Brad Tippett, 6' 1", 190 lbs, RHP, 22; Bratt Tippett is one of the many very good international signings by the Twins in the later part of this decade. He was signed as an amateur free agent from Australia in 2005 and started his career with the Twins in the GCL as an 18 year old in 2006. Brad has moved very slowly through the organization, because he has been very raw, but the patience has benefited him. He is a very polished pitcher at 21 years old, having 3 very good pitches (a high 80s fastball, a curve and an excellent change up), thrown by what Baseball America called "the best control in the organization". He repeated last season in Beloit (was promoted to Beloit mid 2008) but assumed a starting role, while compiling a 3.21 ERA, 1.068 WHIP, 6.6 K/9 and 4.28 K/BB in 146 innings. He is still about the right age for his level and will probably move to Ft. Myers next season. Depending on his development he could be a back of the rotation starter or a middle reliever. ETA: 2013
21. Blayne Weller, 6'5", 220 lbs, RHP, 20. Brayne was drafted in the 14th round of the 2008 draft from Key West High School. This season was his first in professional ball (he pitched for 1 inning at the GCL in 2008) and he dominated the GCL. He started 10 games, pitched 57 innings, accumulating a 1.58 ERA, .947 WHIP, 7.7 K/9 and 6.13 K/BB. He is not a hard thrower (his fastball is mid to low 80s), but he has excellent control, a very good curve with late braking movement, a project-able body and a deceptive 3/4 arm delivery. He will probably start 2010 in Elizabethton. He projects as a back of the rotation starter or a middle reliever. ETA: 2015.
There we go:
25. Mike McCardell, 6'5", 220 lbs RHP, 25. Mike McCardell was drafted in the 6th round of the 2007 draft from Kutztown University and has moved fairly fast through the Twins' system in his 3 years as a pro starting with the GCL Twins (Rookie-) in 2007 and moving to New Britain (AA) after starting the season at Ft. Myers in 2009. McCardell last season (3.93 ERA, 1.213 WHI, 3.5 K/9, 4.88 K/BB with the Miracle in 94 innings, 17 starts and 4.10 ERA, 1.262 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 2.50 K/BB in 48.1 innings, 9 starts with the Rock Cats) was somewhat of a dissapointment compared to his previous seasons, when his WHIP was consistently under 1.000, his ERA consistently under 3 and his K/9 consistently over 9. McCardell has a two seamer and a four seamer in the high 80s, and his out pitch is a curve. He also features a change up. McCardell is a control artist who has to pitch close to the strike zone and get ahead of hitters to be successful, since he cannot blow batters away. This season, batters at the higher levels seems to lay off his curve on the dirt, leading to fewer strikeouts and more walks and hits. Another potential issue is that he might not be durable as a starter (average start just over 5.4 innings). He projects as a middle reliever in the majors. He will probably start his age 25 season next year in New Britain and might move to Rochester depending on the needs of the organization. ETA: 2012
24. Wilson Sanchez, 6'1", 175 lbs, RHP, 19. For a while, I have been claiming that the DSL Twins club has some of the best pitchers in the organization. Thanks to Adrian Salcedo's success this season north of the border in the GCL, the DSL prospects will hopefully get more recognition from the fans and the organization, before the cross the border. Wilson Sanchez was signed as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic in late 2008 and he has his first professional season in 2009, where he put numbers better than what Adrian Salcedo did in 2008 at the DSL: 14 GS, 73.1 IP, 0.914 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 4.75 K/BB. His main pitch is a four seam fastball that sits at low to mid 90s but has a lot of deceptive movement. His secondary pitches (a slider and a change up) are works in progress at this point. Too early to project his career path, but if learns to master a change up and develop a good third pitch, he will open some eyes. He should start next season at the GCL. ETA: 2014
23. Bobby Lanigan, 6'4", 220 lbs, RHP, 23. Bobby Lanigan was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2008 draft from Adelphi University. After he spent the 2009 season in Elizabethton, he started the 2009 season in Beloit and moved up to Ft. Myers for 7 innings. He started 22 games in Beloit, accumulating a 4.52 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 3.52 K/BB in 123.1 innings. He possesses a low to mid 90s fastball and a change up that has not been perfected; however, he might have the best slider in the Twins' minor league system. This season in Ft. Myers he was used primarily as a reliever (he made 2 starts and 5 relieve appearances) and as a reliever he help opponents to a .175 batting average compared to a .271 (combined Beloit and Ft. Myers) as a starter. Lanigan projects as a future late inning reliever and will probably assume the role full time in Ft. Myers next season. ETA: 2013
22. Brad Tippett, 6' 1", 190 lbs, RHP, 22; Bratt Tippett is one of the many very good international signings by the Twins in the later part of this decade. He was signed as an amateur free agent from Australia in 2005 and started his career with the Twins in the GCL as an 18 year old in 2006. Brad has moved very slowly through the organization, because he has been very raw, but the patience has benefited him. He is a very polished pitcher at 21 years old, having 3 very good pitches (a high 80s fastball, a curve and an excellent change up), thrown by what Baseball America called "the best control in the organization". He repeated last season in Beloit (was promoted to Beloit mid 2008) but assumed a starting role, while compiling a 3.21 ERA, 1.068 WHIP, 6.6 K/9 and 4.28 K/BB in 146 innings. He is still about the right age for his level and will probably move to Ft. Myers next season. Depending on his development he could be a back of the rotation starter or a middle reliever. ETA: 2013
21. Blayne Weller, 6'5", 220 lbs, RHP, 20. Brayne was drafted in the 14th round of the 2008 draft from Key West High School. This season was his first in professional ball (he pitched for 1 inning at the GCL in 2008) and he dominated the GCL. He started 10 games, pitched 57 innings, accumulating a 1.58 ERA, .947 WHIP, 7.7 K/9 and 6.13 K/BB. He is not a hard thrower (his fastball is mid to low 80s), but he has excellent control, a very good curve with late braking movement, a project-able body and a deceptive 3/4 arm delivery. He will probably start 2010 in Elizabethton. He projects as a back of the rotation starter or a middle reliever. ETA: 2015.
12/10/09
Who is Boof Bonser?
After the Twins removed Boof Bonser from their 40-man roster to make room for the signing of Carl Pavano, they dealt him today to the Boston Red Sox for a yet to be disclosed minor league player. It might seem as a small win for the Twins, since they gained something for a player they were about to lose for nothing, but is it so? The reason stated that Bonser, and not a lesser player like Bobby Keppel, Matt Tolbert or Drew Butera, was removed from the roster was because Bonser did not accept the $550,000 contract the Twins offered him during the offseason and he was headed to arbitration. I suspect that the Twins' brass did not realize that offering him about $90,000 over the minimum would be borderline insulting. So they cut their nose to spite their face and kept Bobby Keppel instead...
Can Bonser be successful? Let's look at the facts starting with a mini scouting report:
Bonser has 4 main pitches: A fastball that averages 92 mph, but hits 95 occasionally with some movement, a plus slider and potentially one of the best curveballs in the game. He is more effective against righthanders (career .699 OPS against) and not effective against lefties (career .891 OPS against, but also .369 BABIP). His career numbers are a bit skewed because he has been both a starter and a reliever, but his future is in the bullpen. There were durability considerations (because of his weight) which made him report to the 2008 training camp several pounds lighter, but the real considerations are with his concentration and mental make up. Boof can pitch brilliantly but when he gets in trouble, he seems to fall apart (Over the Baggy has a great analysis of his pitching numbers, especially his performance with men on base.) When there is someone on first, Boof seems to be a different pitcher (career .956 OPS against in 313 PA), mainly because he looses the control of his breaking stuff and has to throw fastballs in the zone when he falls behind. His 9.5 K/9 and 3.22 K/BB career as a reliever in the major league level (despite the aforementioned problems), along with his devastating curve, project him as a dominating arm in the pen, maybe a future closer, if he deals with his concentration issues. Having a change of scenery and coaching on these respects might be what he needs, and unfortunately this situation smells a lot of the David Ortiz situation years ago...
Bonser was drafted in the 1st round of the 2000 draft by the San Fransisco Giants and came to the Twins in the AJ Pierzynski trade that also brought Joe Nathan and Fransisco Liriano to the team.
Good luck, Boof, but please not against the Twins.
Can Bonser be successful? Let's look at the facts starting with a mini scouting report:
Bonser has 4 main pitches: A fastball that averages 92 mph, but hits 95 occasionally with some movement, a plus slider and potentially one of the best curveballs in the game. He is more effective against righthanders (career .699 OPS against) and not effective against lefties (career .891 OPS against, but also .369 BABIP). His career numbers are a bit skewed because he has been both a starter and a reliever, but his future is in the bullpen. There were durability considerations (because of his weight) which made him report to the 2008 training camp several pounds lighter, but the real considerations are with his concentration and mental make up. Boof can pitch brilliantly but when he gets in trouble, he seems to fall apart (Over the Baggy has a great analysis of his pitching numbers, especially his performance with men on base.) When there is someone on first, Boof seems to be a different pitcher (career .956 OPS against in 313 PA), mainly because he looses the control of his breaking stuff and has to throw fastballs in the zone when he falls behind. His 9.5 K/9 and 3.22 K/BB career as a reliever in the major league level (despite the aforementioned problems), along with his devastating curve, project him as a dominating arm in the pen, maybe a future closer, if he deals with his concentration issues. Having a change of scenery and coaching on these respects might be what he needs, and unfortunately this situation smells a lot of the David Ortiz situation years ago...
Bonser was drafted in the 1st round of the 2000 draft by the San Fransisco Giants and came to the Twins in the AJ Pierzynski trade that also brought Joe Nathan and Fransisco Liriano to the team.
Good luck, Boof, but please not against the Twins.
12/7/09
It has been a while... hasn't it?
I know I should post more here but the last couple of months I was fully involved with personal endeavors.
That said, I have been using my Twitter account to quickly and easily post info I have about the Twins and Vikings (and some of it scooped all professional bloggers and sportswriters recently, namely the J.J Hardy acquisition and the 3 year extension of Brad Childress. Thank you classmates!)
With the recent news that Pavano has accepted an arbitration offer (and that contract will end up being about around $5.5 million plus incentives), the logjam in the Twins' pitching staff is getting bigger. Given that Pavano, Baker, Slowey are a lock for 3 starting positions (and I am not mentioning Blackburn for a good reason), the other 2 will be filled by 2 of Blackburn, Bonser, Liriano, Duensing, and Perkins.
Still, a large portion of the Twins' fans feel that the Twins do not have an ace (I do not subscribe to this opinion and every reader here knows that I think that a healthy Slowey is an ace pitcher). Fact: the Twins are having deficiencies in 2B and 3B. I was informed (and tweeted about a month ago, thanks to a certain unnamed classmate who works for the Marlins) that they are looking to make a deal with the Marlins for Dan Uggla. In the initial deal the Twins were looking to make a blockbuster with Ricky Nolasco as part of the deal (and giving the Marlins some pitchers). Since then (a month ago) it appears that Josh Johnson (a Twin-Cities native to boot) has been made available. The ante is upped. My gut feeling says that Bill Smith will make this trade (and, btw, I hated to see GoGo go) but this will practically result to Blackburn being a Marlin (and Perkins and at least one of the slated bullpen guys, in addition to Casilla and prospects)
That said, I have been using my Twitter account to quickly and easily post info I have about the Twins and Vikings (and some of it scooped all professional bloggers and sportswriters recently, namely the J.J Hardy acquisition and the 3 year extension of Brad Childress. Thank you classmates!)
With the recent news that Pavano has accepted an arbitration offer (and that contract will end up being about around $5.5 million plus incentives), the logjam in the Twins' pitching staff is getting bigger. Given that Pavano, Baker, Slowey are a lock for 3 starting positions (and I am not mentioning Blackburn for a good reason), the other 2 will be filled by 2 of Blackburn, Bonser, Liriano, Duensing, and Perkins.
Still, a large portion of the Twins' fans feel that the Twins do not have an ace (I do not subscribe to this opinion and every reader here knows that I think that a healthy Slowey is an ace pitcher). Fact: the Twins are having deficiencies in 2B and 3B. I was informed (and tweeted about a month ago, thanks to a certain unnamed classmate who works for the Marlins) that they are looking to make a deal with the Marlins for Dan Uggla. In the initial deal the Twins were looking to make a blockbuster with Ricky Nolasco as part of the deal (and giving the Marlins some pitchers). Since then (a month ago) it appears that Josh Johnson (a Twin-Cities native to boot) has been made available. The ante is upped. My gut feeling says that Bill Smith will make this trade (and, btw, I hated to see GoGo go) but this will practically result to Blackburn being a Marlin (and Perkins and at least one of the slated bullpen guys, in addition to Casilla and prospects)
10/6/09
Five Reasons the Twins will be AL Central Champions
- Momentum. The last 2 weeks the team is batting .313/.391/.466, and the bullpen in September has a collective 2.85 ERA, 1.257 WHIP, and has allowed opponents to hit for a .678 OPS. For comparison, the last 2 weeks Detroit is batting .275/.349/.402 and for September its pen has a 4.84 ERA, 1.495 WHIP and has allowed opponents to hit for a .784 OPS. The difference in the numbers get magnified if one looks at just the last week
- Head to Head Performance. The Twins have taken 11 of 18 from Detroit and 7 out of 9 in the Dome. As a team, the Twins against Detroit are batting .307/.372/.452 (the best against any AL team this season) and pitching to the rate of 4.21 ERA and 1.331 WHIP. Detroit, on the other hand, as a team against the Twins is hitting .266/.325/.418 and pitching with a 5.48 ERA and 1.628 WHIP (the worse against any AL team this season
- Starting Pitchers. This season Scott Baker at home is pitching at a 1.071 WHIP rate with 7.7 K/9 and 5.67 K/BB. At the same time Rich Porcello away is pitching at a 1.365 WHIP rate with 4.3 K/9 and 1.95 K/BB. Rich Porcello on artificial turf this season is 0-3 with a 6.60 ERA, 1.867 WHIP and .991 opponents OPS.
- The Dome. It is fair to say that the metrodome has seen the best (and loudest) crowds for 25 years all in the last 2 days: Sell outs for the last 2 weekend baseball games following by a MNF Packers visit. All 3 games victorious for the home team. This game will be in a madhouse and the fans are riding a home town victory high
- The 1987 Karma. This team has a lot of similarities with the 1987 team including:
- Home run hitters
- A very low winning percentage, esp. away
- One good young starter pitcher and a good veteran starter pitcher and several questionmarks
- A re-engineered bullpen that started performing down the stretch
- A reliable, but often high blood pressure -inducing closer
GO TWINS!!!!
9/15/09
Morneau and scientific facts about back fractures
Today Justin Morneau was reportedly diagnosed with a "stress fracture on his back", which will keep him out of the year.
There are not many details yet, but a fracture in the "back" is a fairly scary thing, and there is not such a diagnosis, btw, but I will try to give some medical and scientific context about it before we learn of more details:
A. What is a stress fracture:
A stress fracture, is a fracture (i.e. break, as in "sticks and stones will break my bones") caused by repetitive strenuous activity. These are hairline fractures (which means that they are "not all the way through" or there is no bone separation and there are no bone fragments around)
B. Anatomy of the spine
A fracture of "the back" does not mean anything... the assumption here is that Justin has a fracture in one of his vertebrae. As far as the seriousness goes, fractures on the Pedicles (the little protrusions that help the back bend but making it not bend so much so it doesn't put too much stress in the spine) are very easy to heal. Fractures on the Facet Joints that do what the Pedicles do plus hit the Pedicles above to keep the "back straight" are a little harder to heal, but still ok. On the other hand, fractures of the Verebral Bodies are much harder to heal and might cause things like slipped discs (which is really painful and that's what Joe Crede had; btw, Joe Mauer's condition was totally different, but this is another story).
Wishing the best for Justin and I will try to keep updated with information about exactly what's going on
Update 12:34 AM EDT:
Apparently the fracture is on L5 (or Lumbar 5) which is the lowest Lumber vertebra (the one where the Pedicle line points to on the right hand side of the above picture). Still no word of which part of the vertebra is affected.
There are not many details yet, but a fracture in the "back" is a fairly scary thing, and there is not such a diagnosis, btw, but I will try to give some medical and scientific context about it before we learn of more details:
A. What is a stress fracture:
A stress fracture, is a fracture (i.e. break, as in "sticks and stones will break my bones") caused by repetitive strenuous activity. These are hairline fractures (which means that they are "not all the way through" or there is no bone separation and there are no bone fragments around)
B. Anatomy of the spine
A fracture of "the back" does not mean anything... the assumption here is that Justin has a fracture in one of his vertebrae. As far as the seriousness goes, fractures on the Pedicles (the little protrusions that help the back bend but making it not bend so much so it doesn't put too much stress in the spine) are very easy to heal. Fractures on the Facet Joints that do what the Pedicles do plus hit the Pedicles above to keep the "back straight" are a little harder to heal, but still ok. On the other hand, fractures of the Verebral Bodies are much harder to heal and might cause things like slipped discs (which is really painful and that's what Joe Crede had; btw, Joe Mauer's condition was totally different, but this is another story).
Wishing the best for Justin and I will try to keep updated with information about exactly what's going on
Update 12:34 AM EDT:
Apparently the fracture is on L5 (or Lumbar 5) which is the lowest Lumber vertebra (the one where the Pedicle line points to on the right hand side of the above picture). Still no word of which part of the vertebra is affected.
9/7/09
New (retro) post
Yes, I have not posted here for a while, and yes I am dissatisfied with the way the Twins' things are doing these days, but, yes, they can still win the division and yes what I said here (a bit controversial to some a month or so ago; I am sure than now more people feel this way), still stands...
9/1/09
Goodbye Kevin Mulvey and a mini-scouting report
Kevin Mulvey is the player to be named later in the Joh Rauch trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
I think that it is a good trade for the Twins, since Rauch is going to be with the team for 2010 and in December the Twins would have needed to keep Mulvey in the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. However there are not too many 40-many roster spots open and more than likely would have been occupied by other prospects, higher-rated than Mulvey, who also need protection. Thus, it is like losing Mulvey to the Rule 5 draft and signing Rauch as a free agent. Not bad.
Mulvey's career numbers in the minors are very ordinary: 3.54 ERA, 1.308 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 and 2.39 K/BB. This season, his second in AAA Rochester, Mulvery has regressed to: 3.93 ERA, 1.389 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 and 2.09 K/BB, which are all the way career lows at any level for the 24 year old RHP. You can read a 2007 scouting report on Mulvey here. The bottom line is: low 90s 2-seamer, slider and a curve, mixed with an occasional change up to the lefties. His fastball and slider have been considered plus pitches where his curve and changeup are works in process.
Mulvey could potentially be at the tail end of a major league rotation, however middle relief might be closer to his MLB ceiling.
Also, removing Mulvey from the 40-man roster, might allow someone like Danny Valencia to take his spot and contributing with the Twins this September
I think that it is a good trade for the Twins, since Rauch is going to be with the team for 2010 and in December the Twins would have needed to keep Mulvey in the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. However there are not too many 40-many roster spots open and more than likely would have been occupied by other prospects, higher-rated than Mulvey, who also need protection. Thus, it is like losing Mulvey to the Rule 5 draft and signing Rauch as a free agent. Not bad.
Mulvey's career numbers in the minors are very ordinary: 3.54 ERA, 1.308 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 and 2.39 K/BB. This season, his second in AAA Rochester, Mulvery has regressed to: 3.93 ERA, 1.389 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 and 2.09 K/BB, which are all the way career lows at any level for the 24 year old RHP. You can read a 2007 scouting report on Mulvey here. The bottom line is: low 90s 2-seamer, slider and a curve, mixed with an occasional change up to the lefties. His fastball and slider have been considered plus pitches where his curve and changeup are works in process.
Mulvey could potentially be at the tail end of a major league rotation, however middle relief might be closer to his MLB ceiling.
Also, removing Mulvey from the 40-man roster, might allow someone like Danny Valencia to take his spot and contributing with the Twins this September
8/29/09
Recapping the last 24 hours on the Twins trade front
Not many things happened in the trade front today for the Twins, however there are some developments to note:
Very quiet day today and tonight, we will see how tomorrow and Monday go. As a reminder, the trading deadline is 12 noon EDT Monday.
- A story in Chicago Tribune confirms what I was told and related last night about a. it will take 2 decent prospects for the Twins to acquire Harden and b. the Twins feel that they need to sign him to an extension to give up this much
- Joe Christiensen presents a Harden story with a Twins' Front office perspective. They are tight lipped as usually. In the same piece, Joe C, indicates that the Twins did not comment about Penny as well.
- B.J. Hermsen was pulled off after one inning yesterday, leading to speculation that he might be traded. However, Josh Johnson talked to him and Hermsen said that it was planned because he has to start a playoff game next Tuesday. This does not mean that Hermsen will not get traded, but the likelihood has decreased
Very quiet day today and tonight, we will see how tomorrow and Monday go. As a reminder, the trading deadline is 12 noon EDT Monday.
8/28/09
Waiver trading deadline: what do we know, what we don't know and how I am covering it
August 31st is the waiver trade deadline. The Twins have been more active this season in waiver trades than in non-waiver trades. Here is a list of what is going on right now with the Twins and the ways they are trying to improve the team and a list on how I am going to cover it this weekend. Since the technicalities and the details on roster positions, the 25-man roster and the 40-man roster are extreme, I will be very detailed:
What we know and what we don't know:
How I am going to cover this deadline and why:
So you have it, this is what I am doing during this deadline and you all are more than welcome to be a part of it.
What we know and what we don't know:
- Before today, the Twins had a full 25-man roster and a full 40-man roster. Also before the December Rule 5 draft, the Twins would have needed to add about 20 players to their 40-man roster to protect them.
- The Twins have completed a trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks that will bring in Jon Rauch to the Twins for a player to be named later. To make room for Rauch, Philip Humber was waived (release waivers) freeing his 40-man and 25-man roster spot. Humber was not selected by another team and did not elect to be a free agent, so he will play for the Rochester Red Wings for the remainder of the season. Rauch will wear his Twins' number 60 uniform on Saturday.
- The Twins have completed a trade with the Kansas City Royals that will bring in Ron Mahay to the Twins' pen. We know that the Royals designated Mahay for assignment earlier this week and we know that they are picking a large part of his salary this year. Reportedly, the Twins will be responsible for only $100,000 of Mahay's salary. What we don't know is: a. whether there is a Twins' player might go to Kansas City as a return and b. who will be the player(s) who will move off the 25-man and the 40-man roster to accommodate Mahay in both rosters. My suspicion is that Bobby Keppel's days with the Twins came to an end. Mahay is presumably going to join the team on Saturday and a roster move needs to be made before the Twins officially announce the transaction
- The Twins have traded Yohan Pino to the Cleveland Indians to complete the Carl Pavano trade. I covered that move here
- The Twins have claimed Brad Penny of release waivers from the Boston Red Sox. We know that Penny can refuse to sign with the Twins, but if this is the case, he will forfeit his $1.5M+ incentives and his $1M remaining salary to sign with a team of his choice. We know that since this is a release waiver pick up the Twins do not have to trade anyone to Boston. We also know that a spot needs to be openned in both 25- and 40-men rosters to accommodate Penny
- After a lot of back and forth and blowing smoke, I can say now with certainty that the Twins have claimed Rich Harden in trade claims from the Chicago Cubs. We know that the Twins have until Monday evening to complete the transaction. We know that Harden will be a type A free agent in the end of the season and will fetch the Cubs two first round draft picks in the 2010 amateur (rule 4) draft, if they offer him arbitration and he chooses to sign with a different team. We know that if the Twins and the Cubs do not agree in a trade arrangement the Cubs can pull him off trade waivers and opt for those draft picks, so the Twins will have to up the ante. We know that the Twins' 2008 draft pick B.J. Hermsen was pulled off after one inning pitching for the GCL Twins without an injury. It is fair to speculate that he might be included in this trade. We also know that one of the big players from the Cubs' side involved in trade discussions is their current assistant general manager and former Twin world champion Randy Bush.
How I am going to cover this deadline and why:
- There are a lot of things that are going on with the Twins right now and there are probably more slow fires burning than their is smoke out there. I am certain that the Twins will make 2-3 more moves before Monday is history and I will cover them all
- Since it is the weekend and a lot of people (including me) are away from their computers most of the time, this is how I will cover this deadline:
- When something breaks or is close to break, it will be in my Twitter. You can follow me at Twitter or you can come here and refresh this page often. All my Twits appear on the top panel of the left side of this page
- When time allows, I will post longer summaries at my facebook page (feel free to add me, my username there is "Thrylos Thatsme", I add everyone back)
- I will give more in-depth analysis of things that happened here, and if things happen later at night or on Monday when I have access to my computer and I won't have to type on my iPhone this information will be here as soon as I can type it
So you have it, this is what I am doing during this deadline and you all are more than welcome to be a part of it.
Yohan Pino goes to Cleveland and a mini scouting report
Today the Twins traded Yohan Pino as the player to be named later to complete the Carl Pavano trade.
Yohan Pino is a 25 year old Venezuelan who was signed by the Twins as an amateur free agent as a 21 year old in 2004. Originally a starter, he had a break through season in Beloit (Midwest League, A) in 2006 and in Ft. Myers (Florida State League, A+) in the beginning of 2007. However, since he moved up to New Britain (Eastern League, AA) later in 2007 he has struggled until this season.
Yohan is a rare phenomenon: he is a strikeout pitcher with a mid to high 80s fastball. His slider and change up are exceptional and when he can locate his fastball in the corners to set up his out pitches he can be effective. A complete scouting report on Yohan Pino can be found here at scout.com, where he was ranked as the Twins #36 prospect going into the 2009 season. I suspect that he probably climbed a few positions based on his performance this season.
He needed to be added to the 40-man roster (the Twins have about 20 players in the same position) by this December to be protected for the Rule 5 draft. If he was not added, he would very likely be selected by another team. Thus the Twins' have accelerated that process...
Yohan Pino is a 25 year old Venezuelan who was signed by the Twins as an amateur free agent as a 21 year old in 2004. Originally a starter, he had a break through season in Beloit (Midwest League, A) in 2006 and in Ft. Myers (Florida State League, A+) in the beginning of 2007. However, since he moved up to New Britain (Eastern League, AA) later in 2007 he has struggled until this season.
Yohan is a rare phenomenon: he is a strikeout pitcher with a mid to high 80s fastball. His slider and change up are exceptional and when he can locate his fastball in the corners to set up his out pitches he can be effective. A complete scouting report on Yohan Pino can be found here at scout.com, where he was ranked as the Twins #36 prospect going into the 2009 season. I suspect that he probably climbed a few positions based on his performance this season.
He needed to be added to the 40-man roster (the Twins have about 20 players in the same position) by this December to be protected for the Rule 5 draft. If he was not added, he would very likely be selected by another team. Thus the Twins' have accelerated that process...
How does Jon Rauch fit in the Twins' bullpen?
Before the virtual ink dried in my Ron Mahay post, I was informed that the Twins have acquired Jon Rauch from the Arizona Diamondbacks.
How does he fit?
Here is the data:
Rauch is slightly below the AL average reliever but better than Mahay. Thus the addition of Mahay and Rauch and the subtraction of the likes of Bobby Keppel and Philip Humber will help the Twins. Rauch is under contract for 2010 for about $3 million
Here are Joe Rauch's career numbers against AL Batters: they collectively hit .169/.228/.265; and he has 1.14 ERA, 0.864 WHIP 9.4 K/9, 3.73 K/BB (in 39.1 IP) these are excellent numbers and he could prove to be a valuable acquisition not only for 2009 but for 2010 as well
How does he fit?
Here is the data:
Rauch is slightly below the AL average reliever but better than Mahay. Thus the addition of Mahay and Rauch and the subtraction of the likes of Bobby Keppel and Philip Humber will help the Twins. Rauch is under contract for 2010 for about $3 million
Here are Joe Rauch's career numbers against AL Batters: they collectively hit .169/.228/.265; and he has 1.14 ERA, 0.864 WHIP 9.4 K/9, 3.73 K/BB (in 39.1 IP) these are excellent numbers and he could prove to be a valuable acquisition not only for 2009 but for 2010 as well
How does Ron Mahay fit in the Twins' bullpen?
Ken Rosenthal reported that the Twins have acquired Ron Mahay, a 38-year old lefty reliever from the Kansas City Royals. This will be a quick post to analyze how Mahay might fit with the team and I will profile him during the weekend.
I will be using PE and xPE to evaluate Mahay's effectiveness compared to the rest of the Twins' pen. Here is the data:
As you can see, Ron Mahay is the Twins' fifth best reliever behind Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares and Jesse Crain. Like Jesse Crain, Mahay has a high strikeout rate and an inflated WHIP due to a much higher than usual BABIP. Nathan, Guerrier and Mijares are above average compared to AL relievers (AL reliever average PE is 10.71) and Crain and Mahay slightly below average, but still much better than the likes of Brian Duensing, Phillip Humber, Bobby Keppel, Jeff Manship and R.A. Dickey (now in Rochester) who have been below average.
This is the second time this season the Twins made a trade within the division, with the acquisition of Carl Pavano from the Cleveland Indians being the first.
I will be using PE and xPE to evaluate Mahay's effectiveness compared to the rest of the Twins' pen. Here is the data:
As you can see, Ron Mahay is the Twins' fifth best reliever behind Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares and Jesse Crain. Like Jesse Crain, Mahay has a high strikeout rate and an inflated WHIP due to a much higher than usual BABIP. Nathan, Guerrier and Mijares are above average compared to AL relievers (AL reliever average PE is 10.71) and Crain and Mahay slightly below average, but still much better than the likes of Brian Duensing, Phillip Humber, Bobby Keppel, Jeff Manship and R.A. Dickey (now in Rochester) who have been below average.
This is the second time this season the Twins made a trade within the division, with the acquisition of Carl Pavano from the Cleveland Indians being the first.
8/27/09
Would Brad Penny be an improvement?
Joe Christensen in his blog mentioned that the Twins might pick Brad Penny from the release waiver wire. Let's examine whether he will be an improvement over the Twins' current starters.
To analyze this, I will be using the same methodology I used here, looking at PE and xPE:
For Pavano's numbers I am using only his Twins' appearances. Gabino's sample is not significant.
Clearly from the current starters (with Liriano in the DL), Brad Penny would rank third in the Twins' staff behind Baker and Pavano. A low risk high reward pick up that might help the Twins in their pennant run and would be more effective that Blackburn, Duensing, and Swarzak. Dave Cameron agrees with this line of thinking at FanGraphs, using different statistic criteria.
On another note, Carl Pavano and Brad Penny were the #1 and #2 starters for the 2003 World Champion Florida Marlins. Mike Redmond was the back-up catcher in that team.
To analyze this, I will be using the same methodology I used here, looking at PE and xPE:
For Pavano's numbers I am using only his Twins' appearances. Gabino's sample is not significant.
Clearly from the current starters (with Liriano in the DL), Brad Penny would rank third in the Twins' staff behind Baker and Pavano. A low risk high reward pick up that might help the Twins in their pennant run and would be more effective that Blackburn, Duensing, and Swarzak. Dave Cameron agrees with this line of thinking at FanGraphs, using different statistic criteria.
On another note, Carl Pavano and Brad Penny were the #1 and #2 starters for the 2003 World Champion Florida Marlins. Mike Redmond was the back-up catcher in that team.
Various off day Twins (and not only) thoughts
- This is a sight for sore eyes:
Also it looks like the grass will be very close to the foul line in Target Field, which might help bunting. - Case in point on why predictive metrics have some merit: If someone on June 17 told you that "Blackburn is living on the edge by giving too many hits, walking more batters than usual and striking out fewer than usual" at the same time when mainstream Twins' media and his manager were calling him a "stopper", and his ERA was hovering in the low 3's, you'd think that this someone must be nuts. What do you think now?
- Here is an interesting article about the status of international baseball, now that the sport is not an Olympic sport from 2016 on.
- You'd think that an unassisted triple play would be a feat that some Hall of Famers, or at least All-Stars accomplished. This is not the case. All fifteen players who have turned unassisted triple plays are not stars. Also interesting is the fact that 13 of the 15 unassisted triple plays happened in the same manner: The fielder caught a line drive, touched 2nd and tagged the runner coming from 1st.
- This is something that I missed (and I suspect that a lot of other people did), but it is very remarkable: On August 23rd, The Hudson Valley Renegades (New York/Penn League, short-season A, Tampa Bay Rays affiliate) broadcast their game against the Staten Island Yankees, live on Twitter using the Twitcam technology. A sign of things to come? The Renegades' next Live Twitter game is on September 3rd at 6:50 PM against the Brooklyn Cyclones (New York Mets' NPL affiliate). I think that it will be interesting to watch.
- Toby Gardenhire suffered a broken wrist in a collision last night and he is out for the season.
- About 5 days are left for the waiver trade deadline (Aug. 31) and for the roster expansion deadline (Sept. 1). I am not sure that the Twins will make any trades. Their biggest need right not is starting pitching and I do not thing that the names available might be an upgrade. I posted earlier my opinion on September call ups. Since then, two things have changed: Boof Bonser, currently on the 60-day DL, is expected to potentially see action in September and Joe Crede, received an epidural last night to alleviate pain from his back. Unless his back responds (it did last season after an epidural when he played for the Chicago White Sox), I expect a DL-stint for Joe Crede.
8/26/09
What went wrong with Armando Gabino?
Armando Gabino made his major league debut yesterday and by all means it was not very successful: He pitched for 2.2 innings, gave 5 hits, 4 earned runs (one of which in a bases loaded walk by Phillip Humber who relieved him in the 2nd inning), 2 walks and struck out one batter. Let's examine what went wrong.
Gabino was not getting his bread and butter pitches called strikes
Here is Gabino's Pitch F/X location data from last nights game (from Brooksbaseball.net):
Gabino's bread and butter are pitches in the red rectangle. For Gabino to be successful, he needs those to be called strikes. Gary Darling, the home plate umpire did not only call pitches down and out of the strike zone balls, but some in the lower part of the strike zone as well.
Gabino tried to adjust and was successful on the outside part of the strike zone (red squares to the left), but he left too many balls in the middle that resulted in being in play (blue squares)
Darling had a consistently small strike zone (here is his balls and strikes calls for all pitchers from both teams) :
Gabino threw very few changeups
Gabino's best pitch is a circle change. Last night he threw only 8 change ups in 57 pitches (and 3 of them in a row at some point in the third inning.) I am not sure whether this is due to the fact that the last time Joe Mauer caught him was in the Spring Training of the 2008 season, but for Gabino to be successful his change up ration should be higher and better mixed.
Gabino had a mechanical issue of sorts
Here is Gabino's release point from last night:
Very inconsistent, and it seems to form 2 nuclei very similar to Liriano's. Liriano's release point is different when facing RHB and LHB (because he steps on different place on the rubber depending on whether he faces a lefty or a righty), but Gabino's was all over the place regardless whether he was facing a lefty or a righty.
As you can see he releases his breaking pitches (orange) and change up (yellow) from a much straighter position than his fastballs (green and blue). This is a huge difference and easily picked up by an opposing batter who can wait on a pitch based on Gabino's release point.
He is tipping his pitches in a very bad way... When a ball comes from a straight delivery, the opponent can guess slider or change up and when it comes from a 3/4 delivery he can guess fastball and be right 100% of the time.
Not too good.
Gabino needs to fix these 3 things in order to be a successful major league pitcher:
Gabino was not getting his bread and butter pitches called strikes
Here is Gabino's Pitch F/X location data from last nights game (from Brooksbaseball.net):
Gabino's bread and butter are pitches in the red rectangle. For Gabino to be successful, he needs those to be called strikes. Gary Darling, the home plate umpire did not only call pitches down and out of the strike zone balls, but some in the lower part of the strike zone as well.
Gabino tried to adjust and was successful on the outside part of the strike zone (red squares to the left), but he left too many balls in the middle that resulted in being in play (blue squares)
Darling had a consistently small strike zone (here is his balls and strikes calls for all pitchers from both teams) :
Gabino threw very few changeups
Gabino's best pitch is a circle change. Last night he threw only 8 change ups in 57 pitches (and 3 of them in a row at some point in the third inning.) I am not sure whether this is due to the fact that the last time Joe Mauer caught him was in the Spring Training of the 2008 season, but for Gabino to be successful his change up ration should be higher and better mixed.
Gabino had a mechanical issue of sorts
Here is Gabino's release point from last night:
Very inconsistent, and it seems to form 2 nuclei very similar to Liriano's. Liriano's release point is different when facing RHB and LHB (because he steps on different place on the rubber depending on whether he faces a lefty or a righty), but Gabino's was all over the place regardless whether he was facing a lefty or a righty.
As you can see he releases his breaking pitches (orange) and change up (yellow) from a much straighter position than his fastballs (green and blue). This is a huge difference and easily picked up by an opposing batter who can wait on a pitch based on Gabino's release point.
He is tipping his pitches in a very bad way... When a ball comes from a straight delivery, the opponent can guess slider or change up and when it comes from a 3/4 delivery he can guess fastball and be right 100% of the time.
Not too good.
Gabino needs to fix these 3 things in order to be a successful major league pitcher:
- Adjust when he does not get the low strike, but do not throw the ball in the middle of the plate (his 93 mph max FB is not good enought to blow by batters). Stay on the edges, like he partially did last night
- Mix it up. Got to have batters beat him with his best weapon (change up) not with his least (fastball)
- Get a consistent delivery and release point to improve his command and stop tipping his pitches
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