How the dominos are falling for the Twins and 9 things you may not know about their new RHP Lance Lynn

The Twins have signed former Cardinals' RHP Lance Lynne.  The free agent was signed to an one-year $12 million contract, with the potential of receiving $2 million more, based on performance.  Because Lynn rejected the Cardinals' qualifying offer (of $17+ million) the Twins will surrender their third round and 95th overall pick in the 2018 amateur draft.  In addition, according to the new CBA, the Twins cannot extend a qualifying offer to him next off-season, since he already had one.

Lynn will round up the Twins rotation of Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, and Kyle Gibson, to which Ervin Santana will be added in early April once his finger is 100%.   Here are how the dominos will likely call for the Twins:

Anibal Sanchez, who has a non-guaranteed contract, will be released,  
Phil Hughes, who has been improving, will start the season in the pen,
The same with Tylor Duffey who has an option and potentially can also start in the minors.
Trevor May who is on the 60-day DL will also head in the pen.
Adalberto Mejia who has one option and Aaron Slegers who has too, along with everyone else without MLB Starting experience will be in Rochester to start the season.

There are lot of things that have been written about Lance Lynn, his comeback from Tommy John surgery, his potential regression based on his 2018 FIP and BABIP, the fact that he only pitched in the NL etc.   I will not repeat those, other than saying that he will be better for the Twins than Bartolo Colon, Hector Santiago, and the other slew of characters he replaces...

Here are things that you many not know about Lance Lynn:

1. He has never faced the Twins
2. His little league team made it to the Little League World Series in 1999
3. He was a High School teammate of Drew Storen.
4. He jumped 3 levels in his fist full professional season ending up in AAA.
5. The next season (2010) he broke the Cardinals' franchise strikeout record with 16 in a game in the AAA PCL.
6. At 6'5" and 280 lbs, he will be the Twins' biggest player, to the relief of Miguel Sano.
7. He has worn numbers 62 and 31 with the Cardinals.  31 is Jeff Pickler's number and 62 non-roster catcher's Jordan Pacheco.  There are not many numbers available for the Twins these days...
8. Lynn has effectively one pitch: the fastball.  But he throws is as a 4-seamer, 2-seamer, and cutter and all over the zone, which confuses batters.
9. Last August he was hit on the head with a comebacker off the bat of Lorenzo Cain.

Twins Spring Training Notes: 3/9/2018

Here are my latest Twins' Spring Training notes:

• Kyle Gibson was at 37 pitches on Monday (and then threw on the side), Adalberto Mejia at 51 pitches on Tuesday, Jake Odorizzi at 54 pitches on Wednesday, and Jose Berrios at 56 on Friday.  Expect those limits to go up to 70-75 or so by next week. These four pitchers are the most likely at this point to make the Twins' rotation on opening day.
• Trevor May has started to throw breaking balls now and they are "nasty."
• Great article about Alan Busenitz, his off-season catcher, and his family business, but Mike Berardino at the PPD. And another one regarding Miguel Sano's titanium rod and potential prognosis based on the experience of a current teammate who faced the same situation a few seasons ago.
• Speaking of Sano, he hit his first two home runs of the Spring at Port Charlotte off the Rays' Andrew Kittredge and Vidal Nuño today.  He leads the Twins in this category, tied with Ryan LaMarre.  Must be the titanium rods. 
• Brian Buxton stole his second base of the Spring against the Rays, leading the Twins in this category.  He also ran onto the wall during the 4th inning, leading the Twins yet in another category.
• Former Twins' RHP Luke Bard who was drafted by the Angels in the Rule 5 draft has pitched 4 innings in 5 games this spring, walking 2, striking out 3, and allowed 8 hits and 5 earned runs.  He has a 11.25 ERA and 1.500 WHIP, and might be on his way to Fort Myers soon.
• Nick Burdi who was also drafted in the Rule 5 draft, was later traded to the Pirates and was put on the 60-day DL to start the season.  He must be on the 25-man roster for at least 90 days this season and/or next, not to be returned to the Twins.
  
• The Twins' minor league camp is in full swing.  This means that the second round of the Twins' cuts this Spring will be likely coming this weekend.  There are 53 players in the major league camp at this point, 26 pitchers and 27 position players.  With the bullpen battles the most important at this point, I anticipate more starters and position players (12 of which are non-roster invitees) to be cut.
• Not quite Spring Training-related, but the Twins' are linked to 15 year old speedy Venezuelan CF, Misael Urbina, for the upcoming international free agent signing period.  Flame throwing Venezuelan RHP Richard Gallardo, Dominican RHP Starlyn Castillo, and Cuban RHP Osiel Rodriguez will be the pitching gems of this class, but none is yet linked to the Twins.
• Some betting place has the Twins leading the odds for signing both Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, and even has them as dark horses for Jake Arietta.
• The New York Times has the thoughts of the person who will sing the National Anthem at the Twins' home opener on that subject.
• Horrible news regarding some Twins' fans from Minnesota at Fort Myers.
• MLB vs the State of Florida in Spring Training of 1961 regarding human rights and segregation: A great read. 
• When Ron Gardenhire threatened to tackle Dave Winfield.

 I will be making more such notes in somewhat regular intervals few times a week and daily when I am at Fort Myers. To see all the notes and coverage of the 2018 Twins' Spring Training, including live reports from Fort Myers in the second half of March, please visit here

Twins Spring Training Notes: 3/8/2018

Here are my latest Twins' Spring Training notes:

• Kyle Gibson leads Twins starters with 5.40 pitches per inning pitched (newcomer Jake Odorizzi is second with 5.68, Adalberto Mejia follows with 5.75,  Fernando Romero with 6.00, Aaron Slegers with 6.57, Jose Berrios with 6.60, Phil Hughes with 6.92, Stephen Gonsalves with 7.36 and Aaron Sanchez ends the list with 9.00.)  Last season Gibson had 16.5 pitches per inning pitched, right at his career aveage of 16.4.  His career Spring Training average is 6.8.  Yes batter swing more during Spring Training, but this is a significant positive difference for Gibson. 
• As far as relievers go, Gabriel Moya who has had a great Spring leads the list with 5.60 whereas Trevor Hildenberger whose spring is not exactly great tails with 10.91.  As I previously indicated, I believe that the bullpen battle for spots behind Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed, and Zack Duke is wide open.  This might mean that Moya and Hildenberger go opposite directions come April.
• Robbie Grossman and Kennys Vargas appeared in exactly the same games (8) and have exactly the same at-bats (20) this Spring, but not quite the same results:  Grossman in hitting .100/.250/.100 and Vargas .300/.417/.450.  Both are fighting for a spot on the Twins' bench this season.  A reminder that Grossman's contact (1yr /$2M) is not guaranteed; both players are out of options as well.  
• None of the remaining catchers in the Twins' camp has an OPS higher than .649.  This number belongs to Mitch Garver who is hitting .091/.286/.364.
• Twins starters should be hitting 4 to 5 innings per appearance next week.
• Their number 8 overall prospect, Zack Littell, was among the Twins' first cuts, but he impressed the Twins' management in his brief stay with the big club.
• Interesting story about Twins' number 28 prospect Charlies Barnes, in his home town newspaper.
• Former Twins' old-school manager is already budding heads with his new-school pitching coach, about how to run a bullpen.  Thankfully, it is not the Twins' bullpen.

I will be making more such notes in somewhat regular intervals few times a week and daily when I am at Fort Myers. To see all the notes and coverage of the 2018 Twins' Spring Training, including live reports from Fort Myers in the second half of March, please visit here.

Twins Spring Training Notes: 3/7/2018

Here are my latest Twins' Spring Training notes:

• It was pitchers and catchers reporting to the minor league camp for the first cuts of the spring:  Pitchers Dietrich Enns, Felix Jorge, Zack Littell, and Lewis Thorpe and catchers Brian Navarreto and Wynston Sawyer were re-assigned to the minor league camp.   
• Sawyer had 2 singles and a walk in 5 AB, and Navarreto was hitless in 6. Jorge pitched 3 innings allowing a run and striking out 3, Enns 3-2/3 innings allowing 4 runs and striking out 1, Thopre 2-1/3 innings allowing 3 runs with no strikeouts, and Littell was impressive pitching 5 innings striking out 8 and allowing one run.  
• All of the pitchers are on the 40-man roster, neither of the catchers is. All the cut pitchers should be stretched out as starters in the minor league camp.  This leaves 53 players competing for 25 jobs, most of which are spoken for.
• Speaking of starters Ervin Santana removed his cast and will be starting physical therapy and will be looking for a late April to early May return
• Eddie Rosario has tricep tendinitis and cannot throw.  There seem to be no concerns about him being ready for the season.
• From the pitchers on the Spring roster only Fernando Romero (5 IP) and Jake Odorizzi (2-2/3 IP) have not allowed a hit
• OF Ryan LaMarre (1.342 OPS, 16 AB), 1B Brock Stassi (1.111 , 9 ), 3B Taylor Featherston (1.000, 17), and OF LaMonte Wade (1.000, 16) are the only 4 hitters with OPS equal or higher than 1.000.  None is likely to make the team; however with Robbie Grossman (.190 OPS, 17 AB) and Zach Granite (.427 OPS, 20 AB) both struggling, the two OF might have outside chances.
• AP has an interesting article on Jeff Pickler and his "protegees"

I will be making more such notes in somewhat regular intervals few times a week and daily when I am at Fort Myers. To see all the notes and coverage of the 2018 Twins' Spring Training, including live reports from Fort Myers in the second half of March, please visit here.

Twins Spring Training Notes: 3/2/2018

With Spring Training going strong for a couple weeks now, and the first cuts for the Twins looming, the battles for bench positions, one or two rotation spots and the bullpen, have become fairly muddled.

• As far as the bench goes, after the Logan Morrison signing, there seems to be a fight for 2 spots among (alphabetically) Ehire Adrianza, Erick Aybar, Zach Granite, Robbie Grossman, and Kenny Vargas, as of now.  Each of them brings a different thing on the table.
• So far Adrianza (1.078 OPS) and Aybar (1.035 OPS) have been the best of the group with the bat, with Adrianza experiencing some newly found power.  Granite (.413 OPS) and Grossman (.222 OPS) are not doing themselves any favors.  Vargas is right in the middle with .773 OPS.   Grossman did not do himself any favors when he indicated that he needed "about 10 PA" to get ready for the season.  He has 16 hitless PA right now
• The bullpen battle is also interesting since several of the 2017 hold-overs, Ryan Pressly, Trevor Hildenberger, Alan Busentiz, and relative newcomers Dietrich Enns and Tyler Kinley have been struggling.  Being a "veteran" should not guarantee a position in the pen, since the Twins' pens have been horrible the past few years.  How horrible?  Their second half closer, Matt Belisle, could only get a minor league contract as a free agent this off-season. 
• I feel that Myles Jaye might have a chance to making the Twins this season.  I like his presence on the mount and he has the stuff.
• One of the pitchers who will not be fighting for a spot in the Twins' pen in Michael Kohn who tore his bicep.
• The Twins have early health issues with their catchers. Mitch Garver is out with a knee problem that he suffered in a collision (I thought that those were illegal these days.)  There are no tears, but he will miss some time due to considerable swelling.   Meanwhile Jason Castro was scratched today due to migraines. 
• Looks like the Miguel Sano drama might come to a conclusion soon.
• BTW, can you identify these two former Beloit Snappers?
•  Tyler Kepner of The New York Times has a great article on Fernando Rodney. 
• Meanwhile, there is scientific evidence that balls are juiced the last few seasons.
• The All time Award for the most vain Spring Training-related expression: "It's Spring Training for everyone", as an excuse for off-field screw-ups by non-baseball players.  Most jobs, including theirs, do not come with such mulligans. 

I will be making more such notes in somewhat regular intervals few times a week and daily when I am at Fort Myers. To see all the notes and coverage of the 2018 Twins' Spring Training, including live reports from Fort Myers in the second half of March, please visit here.

Twins Spring Training Notes: 2/28/2018

Still a couple of weeks before  I perform my annual ritual going south to Fort Myers to follow  the 2018 Twins during their Spring Training and write my thoughts live from there, but as things solidify and happen during this time, better start taking notice.  Here are my notes from the Twins' Spring Training so far, in a random order:

• At this point, especially if the Twins go with 4 starters, necessitating spots in the pen for some of the veterans who missed the last spot, like Luke Phil Hughes, I would not call anyone other than Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed, and Zach Duke, a lock for the bullpen.  Taylor Rogers could be close to one, but the fact that he has options left, may play to his disadvantage.
• As far as the rotation goes, it has been presented as pretty much a two way battle between Hughes and Adalberto Mejia (who has options left);  however, if Fernando Romero has a couple more outings like his first, it will be difficult not to put him in the conversation for a rotation spot. Zack Littel also has a perfect 2 inning appearance, and Anibal Sanchez looked pretty good in his two innings.
• Hughes had a decent outing and that included a 91 mph fastball, most since 2014 
• Sanchez was at 91-93 with the fastball and already his changeup was very effective.  Maybe even more importantly, he looks in much better shape than he did last season 
• Jose Berrios has a single inning, 32 pitch outing, that looked better in real life because he was working on his changeup, which is what players who made the roster do during this time.  He hit 95 with the fastball and his breaking ball was fine.  No worries there. 
• The Twins had the best off-season since the before the 1991 season, and we know what happened then.
• Logan Morrison will wear number 99.  98 was taken; thank you very much.  Morrison  will add another power bat next to Miguel Sano in the middle of the order, which will help the Twins.
• Speaking of the devil, no matter what the same Twin Cities dinosaurs say and they are going to say ad nausem, Sano does not look fat these days.  Proof. 
• I have a very hard time seeing any of the non-roster invitees making this team.  
• It looks like Nick Gordon is groomed to be a second baseman and heir apparent of Brian Dozier, since he has been playing second base and not shortstop (other than in the game against the Gophers).  Something to keep an eye at when Gordon moves to the back fields this Spring and starts his minor league season.
• I just hope thatthis season does not turn into the Joe Mauer and Brian Dozier last season with the Twins drama, but both have been vocal about it (mostly because they have been asked) and if one reads between the lines will find out that Dozier has a different agenda on the subject  than Mauer, which is not entirely unexpected, since one has actual ties to the community and is older, already benefiting from free agency.

I will be making more such notes in somewhat regular intervals few times a week and daily when I am at Fort Myers. To see all the notes and coverage of the 2018 Twins' Spring Training, including live reports from Fort Myers in the second half of March, please visit here.

Lomography: Twins' 1B/DH Logan Morrison by the numbers

Multiple reports have indicated that the Twins have signed left hand hitting and throwing Free Agent 1B/DH Logan Morrison to a 1 year $5.5M contract with a team option for $9 million for a second year, which vests with 600 PA in 2017 and can be bought out with $1 million.  In addition, there are $1 million per year in PA-based incentives.  This signing signals that switch hitting 1B/DH Kennys Vargas, who is out of options, as are UT Ehire Adrianza & OF/DH Robby Grossman, both slated for the Twins' bench in 2018, spare injuries or a miracle is in his final days of his career with the Twins.

We know about the HRs and the rest of his cumulative numbers, but let's see how Morrison fits in the Twins' team utilizing his 2017 rate numbers:

Positive attributes (highest rank better)

wOBA: .363, 1st
wRC+: 130, 1st
BB%: 13.5%, 3rd (Grossman 14.7, Gimenez 14.7)
isoP: .268, 1st
GB/FB: 0.72, 1st
LD% 20.5:, 7th (Gimenez 25.8, Mauer 24.9, Grossman 24.8,  Castro 24.6, Buxton 23.2, Granite 21.0, Sano 20.6)
HR/FB: 22.5%, 2nd (Sano 27.5%)
% Hard contact: 37.4%, 2nd (Sano 44.8%)
UZR/150: at 1st Base: 2.0, 3rd (Maure 9.1, Vargas 4.6)




Negative attribute (lowest rank better) 

K%: 24.8%, 7th (Sano 35.8, Buxton 29.4, Vargas 29.2, Garver 28.8, Gimenez 26.7, Castro 26.5)

Statcast numbers (from baseball savant) :

Barrels/BBE: 12.8%, 2nd (24th overall in MLB)  (Sano 16.3, 6th overall)
% exit velo 95+: 42.1%,  3rd (32nd oveall)  (Sano 46%, 11th overall, Mauer 42.7%, 26th overall)

And as a parting shot, his 2017 spray chart (also from baseball savant) overlapping with Target Field, that indicates that if he played all his games at Target Field, and the balls he hit had the same fate as in other parks (lots of assumptions there with these type of exercises btw, especially regarding wind patterns, temperature, humidity, weather, etc., since he played at least half of his games in a dome) :

So what do the numbers tell us about what the Twins potentially acquired in Logan Morrison?

They got a left hand power hitter only second to and complementing right handed Miguel Sano, as far power in the middle of the lineup goes.  Also they got a hitter who was more productive than any Twins' hitter (likely due to afforementioned Sano's injuries) in 2017.  All in all a huge upgrade over Kennys Vargas, other than potentially defensively at 1B, based on UZR/150 numbers.  With RHB Sano and LHB Morrison hitting back to back, the Twins increase the possibilities of taxing opposing pitchers, a luxury they did not have in 2017. 

A great move for the Twins.

2018 Twins Off-Season top 60 Prospect List: Summary 1-60 and Organizational Overview

This is the last segment in the 2018 Twins top 60 prospect list. 

You can find the introductory segment that discusses qualifications to be on this list and presents the players who were on the 2017 list but are not in this list here.  You can find the list of the previous rankings here:  56-60, 55-51, 46-50 , 41-45, 36-40, 31-35, 26-30, 21-25, 16-20, 11-15, 6-10, and 1-5. You can find all segments in this series here.

Here is the list of the Twins top 60 prospects, with last year's ranking in parenthesis; if  not ranked in 2017 this is indicated by (--).  I also indicate their position and ETA to the majors:  

1. Royce Lewis (--), SS/OF, 2020
2. Wander Javier (1), SS, 2020
3. Brusdar Graterol, (13) RHP, 2020
4. Brent Rooker (--), 1B/LF, 2018
5. Fernardo Romero (4), RHP, 2018
6. Rainis Silva (32), C, 2020
7. Blayne Enlow (--), RHP, 2020
8. Zack Littell  (--), RHP, 2018
9. Stephen Gonsalves (6), LHP, 2018
10. Lewin Diaz (3), 1B, 2020
11. Akil Baddoo (24), OF, 2020
12. Tyler Jay (2), LHP, 2018
13. Alex Kirilloff (8) OF, 2020
14. Luis Arraez (11), IF, 2019
15. Michael Montero (--), RHP, 2021
16. Nick Gordon (5), IF, 2018
17. Tyler Wells (54), RHP, 2020
18. Jose Miranda (--), IF, 2021
19. Jean Carlos Arias (36), CF, 2020
20. Jermaine Palacios (31) SS, 2020 traded to the Rays
20. Jovani Moran (--), LHP, 2020
21. Lewis Thorpe (30), LHP, 2019
22. LaMonte Wade (22), OF, 2018
23 Yunior Severino (--), IF, 2022
24. Chris Paul (--), UT, 2019
25. Landon Leach (--), RHP, 2021
26. Andrew Bechtold (--), 3B, 2020
27. Travis Blankenhorn (15), 3B/1B/OF, 2020
28. Charlie Barnes (--), LHP, 2020
29. Tyler Watson (--), RHP, 2020
30. David Banuelos (--), C, 2020
31. Ben Rortvedt (16), C, 2021
32. Kohl Stewart (17), RHP, 2018
33. Alberoni Nunez (--), OF, 2021
34. Derek Molina (--), RHP, 2021
35. Bryan Sammons (--) LHP, 2020
36. Bailey Ober (--), RHP, 2020
37. Pedro Garcia (45), RHP, 2021
38. Lachlan Wells (29), LHP, 2020
39. Wander Valdez, (--) 3B, 2021
40. Aaron Whitefield (59), OF, 2020
41. Ricky De La Torre (--) SS, 2021
42. Jake Reed (25) RHP, 2018
43. Jacob Pearson (--), OF, 2022
44. Yeltsin Encarnacion (--) IF, 2022
45. Ryley Widell (--) LHP, 2022
46. Andrew Vasquez (52), LHP, 2019
47. Tom Hackimer (--), RHP, 2019
48. Kerby Camacho (--), C, 2021
49. Hector Lujan (--), RHP, 2020
50. Colton Burns (--), OF, 2021
51. Cody Stashak -(55), RHP, 2019
52. Jaylin Davis, (39), OF 2019
53. Alex Robles, (--), OF, 2022
54. Ruben Santana, (--), IF, 2022
55. Carlos Suniaga, (--), RHP, 2022
56. Sandy Lugo, (--), RHP, 2020
57. Nelson Molina, (47), IF, 2020
58. Ben Rodriguez (--), C/1B, 2022
59. Carson Crites (--), 2B, 2022
60. Jesus Toledo (--), LHP, 2022

Re-arranging the list based on when players would be ready to help the Twins in the majors, will make look something like this:

4. Brent Rooker (--), 1B/LF, 2018
5. Fernardo Romero (4), RHP, 2018
8. Zack Littell  (--), RHP, 2018
9. Stephen Gonsalves (6), LHP, 2018
12. Tyler Jay (2), LHP, 2018
16. Nick Gordon (5), IF, 2018
22. LaMonte Wade (22), OF, 2018
32. Kohl Stewart (17), RHP, 2018
42. Jake Reed (25) RHP, 2018
---
14. Luis Arraez (11), IF, 2019
21. Lewis Thorpe (30), LHP, 2019
24. Chris Paul (--), UT, 2019
46. Andrew Vasquez (52), LHP, 2019
47. Tom Hackimer (--), RHP, 2019
51. Cody Stashak -(55), RHP, 2019
52. Jaylin Davis, (39), OF 2019
-------
1. Royce Lewis (--), SS/OF, 2020
2. Wander Javier (1), SS, 2020
3. Brusdar Graterol,(13) RHP, 2020
6. Rainis Silva (32), C, 2020
7. Blayne Enlow (--), RHP, 2020
10. Lewin Diaz (3), 1B, 2020
11. Akil Baddoo (24), OF, 2020
13. Alex Kirilloff (8) OF, 2020
17. Tyler Wells (54), RHP, 2020
19. Jean Carlos Arias (36), CF, 2020
20. Jermaine Palacios (31) SS, 2020
20. Jovani Moran (--), LHP, 2020
26. Andrew Bechtold (--), 3B, 2020
27. Travis Blankenhorn (15), 3B/1B/OF, 2020
28. Charlie Barnes (--), LHP, 2020
29. Tyler Watson (--), RHP, 2020
30. David Banuelos (--), C, 2020
35. Bryan Sammons (--) LHP, 2020
36. Bailey Ober (--), RHP, 2020
38. Lachlan Wells (29), LHP, 2020
40. Aaron Whitefield (59), OF, 2020
49. Hector Lujan (--), RHP, 2020
56. Sandy Lugo, (--), RHP, 2020
57. Nelson Molina, (47), IF, 2020
---
15. Michael Montero (--), RHP, 2021
18. Jose Miranda (--), IF, 2021
25. Landon Leach (--), RHP, 2021
31. Ben Rortvedt (16), C, 2021
33. Alberoni Nunez (--), OF, 2021
34. Derek Molina (--), RHP, 2021
37. Pedro Garcia (45), RHP, 2021
39. Wander Valdez, (--) 3B, 2021
41. Ricky De La Torre (--) SS, 2021
48. Kerby Camacho (--), C, 2021
50. Colton Burns (--), OF, 2021
---
23 Yunior Severino (--), IF, 2022
43. Jacob Pearson (--), OF, 2022
44. Yeltsin Encarnacion (--) IF, 2022
45. Ryley Widell (--) LHP, 2022
53. Alex Robles, (--), OF, 2022
54. Ruben Santana, (--), IF, 2022
55. Carlos Suniaga, (--), RHP, 2022
58. Ben Rodriguez (--), C/1B, 2022
59. Carson Crites (--), 2B, 2022
60. Jesus Toledo (--), LHP, 2022

There is a solid pipeline of talent ready (ETA 2018) and close to ready (ETA 2019) that can help the Twins this season; albeit other than a couple of cases (Rooker and Romero), it is not top talent.  The majority of top talent will be ready around 2020, close to when the current young Twins core is coming to its arbitration eligible stage.  For 2021 and further there is not much at this time, but a. many of these prospects will rise in the rankings and b. will be supplemented in the 2018-2020 drafts.

The Twins system is its stronger and more balanced that it has been in years.  The years when Sano, Polanco and Buxton were the top prospects, the quality of position players prospects was probably higher than now, but with Lewis, Javier and Rooker on the top 5, this might be challenged as well.  The quality of pitching and the potential of pitching prospect is much higher than previous years.

Also this team has a nice core of prospects from 8-15, and some of that group are regarded much higher in the National lists, which can serve as the basis for trades to bring in ready now top of the rotation talent, something that the Twins lack. 

2018 Twins Off-Season top 60 Prospect List: 1-5

This is the next segment in the 2018 Twins top 60 prospect list.  You can find the introductory segment that discusses qualifications to be on this list and presents the players who were on the 2017 list but are not in this list here.  You can find the list of the previous rankings here:  56-60, 55-51, 46-50 , 41-45, 36-40, 31-35, 26-30, 21-25, 16-20, 11-15, 6-10. You can find all segments in this series here.

Here are players 6-10 in reverse order with their 2017 ranking in parenthesis. Players not in the 2017 top 60 list are indicated by (--)

5. Fernardo Romero (4)
DOB: 12/24/1994; Age: 22
Positions: RHP
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'0", Weight: 215 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent
Professional Experience: 6; Highest level: AA (2017)
ETA: 2018

Fernando Romero was singed by the Twins as an International Free Agent from the Dominican Republic for on November 4th, 2011 with a $260K bonus.  The San Juan de la Maguana native spending his age 17 2012 season in the Dominican Summer League where he pitched in 14 games, 6 starts, for 31 innings, striking out 27 (7.8 K/9, 20.2 K%), walking 14 (4.1 BB/9, 9.7 K-BB%), with a 4.94 ERA, 3.05 FIP, and 1.29 WHIP (.289 BABIP).  He made the jump to the Gulf Coast League in 2013.  He pitched in 12 games (6 GS) for 45 innings to a 1.60 ERA (2.44 FIP) and 1.00 WHIP (.271 BABIP) and had 47 strikeouts (9.4 K/9, 26 K%) and 13 walks (2.6 BB/9, 18.8 K-BB%.)  After only 4 games in single A Cedar Rapids in 2014 he required Tommy John surgery, missing the rest of 2014 and the whole 2015 season.  Last season he returned to Cedar Rapids where he started 5 games (28 IP) had 25 K (8.0 K/9, 24.3 K%) and 5 BB (1.6 BB/9, 19.4 K-BB%) with a 1.93 ERA, 2.33 FIP, and 0.82 WHIP (.250 BABIP).  He moved to high A Fort Myers late in June where he started 11 games (62-1/3 IP) had 65 K (9.4 K/9, 26.9 K%) and 10 BB (1.4 BB/9, 22.7 K-BB%) with a 1.88 ERA, 2.00 FIP, and 0.93 WHIP (.288 BABIP), improving on his already great Cedar Rapids performance.  Last season he pitched in 24 games (23 starts) at AA Chattanooga for a career high 125 innings.  He had a 3.53 ERA, 2.93 FIP, 8.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 22 K%, 13.8 K-BB%, and 1.35 WHIP (.328) BABIP.  He was shut down in early August due to shoulder impingement.  Previously he had a 5 inning limit on his last 5 starts because of the arm. His numbers are deflated because of 8 August starts that he pitched hurt, where he got a 8.38 ERA, 1.86 WHIP and allowed a .372 OBA.

Romero has a plus plus fastball that sits at 95-97 mph and has a nasty sinking movement, a plus plus slider that sits 88-92 mph and a close to plus now changeup.  After his surgery, Romero came in better shape and he improved his command and control by leaps and bounds, pounding the strike zone and cutting down on walks.  His stuff can already play in a major league pen, but Romero has top of the rotation potential and the Twins will explore that. Romero was added to the Twins' 40-man roster the November of 2016, so he will appear in the Twins' Spring Training camp.  The shoulder is not much of a concern, and he has a chance to make the team out of Spring Training.

Likely 2018 path: Depending on health and on transactions, fighting for a spot in the Twins' rotation. Likely in the majors in 2018, barring injuries, trades etc.

4. Brent Rooker (--)
DOB: 11/1/1994; Age: 23
Positions: 1B/LF
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'3", Weight: 215 lbs
Acquired: Drafted in the 1s Round of 2017
Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: A+ (2017)
ETA: 2018

Brent Rooker (whose first name is Terry) was drafted by the Twins in the supplemental 1st Round of the 2017 draft as a Junior from Mississippi State. The Germantown, TN native, tore up the Southeast NCCA Conferance last season hitting: .387/.495/.810 with 23 HR (and 18/23 SB) in 248 AB (10.78 AB/HR.)  He had 48 walks and struck out 58 times.  As a pro he moved to Elizabethton, where he did not loose a beat with the wooden bat, hitting .282/.364/.588 with a .413 wOBA and 145 wRC+ in 99 PA in 22 games.  That was enough for a promotion all the way to A+ Fort Myers where, in a league that usually bats come to die, he improved upon his E-town production hitting .280/.364/.552 with a .415 wOBA and 166 wRC+ in 40 games and 162 PA, as a 22 year old, about a full year younger than the average player.  And this was the first time he hit with a wooden bat.  Rooker played mostly LF at both Elizabethton and Fort Myers, with 11 games at 1B in Florida.  His throwing arm does not play outside those two positions, but he is a capable defender in both positions.  Strikeouts have been a issue in the pros (21.2% at Elizabethton and 29% at Fort Myers,) but playing a full season and further adjusting with the wood, will help him improve. A player with a great work ethic and makeup, Rooker will be a leader for every team he plays.  My impression is that the Twins will fast track him as the heir-apparent to Joe Mauer at first base, thus the aggressive ETA estimate. If he continues to hit at that rate, he might force the Twins' hand ahead of time, since they can use a power RHB in the majors right now.

Likely 2018 path: Starting 1B/LF at Chattanooga with potential promotion to the majors based on necessity or a September cup of coffee with the Twins.

3. Brusdar Graterol (13)
DOB: 8/26/1998; Age: 18
Positions: RHP
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'1", Weight: 180 lbs
Acquired:   International Free Agent signing 2014
Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: ELZ (2017)
ETA: 2020

This is the third time that Brusdar Graterol has been in this list and every season he has made serious leaps.  He was ranked 28th in my 2016 list well before the National media and most of the local media even knew him from Adam.  Graterol was signed by the Twins as an international free agent from the Venezuela on August 29, 2014, three days after his 16th birthday, for $150,000.  The Calobozo native made only 4 career starts in the DSL before he required Tommy John surgery and moved statewide the summer of 2015.  His numbers in those 4 games, as a 16 year old, fully 3 years younger than the league, were video-game like: 11 IP, 17 K, 13.9 K/9, 36.2 K%, 1 BB, 0.8 BB/9, 34 K-BB%, 2.45 ERA, 1.19 FIP, 1.18 WHIP (.444 BABIP.)   He returned from the surgery well, adding considerable muscle to his frame and surprised everyone when he added several miles per hour to his fastball when he hit the mount.  In 2017 he started the season in the GCL where he pitched 19-1/3 innings in 5 games (2 starts) with a 1.40 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 9.8 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 29.2 K%, 23.6 K-BB%, and 0.72 WHIP (.205 BABIP).  He moved to Elizabethton mid-season where he started in 5 games (20-2/3 IP) with a 3.92 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 10.5 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 28.2 K%, 17.7 K-BB%, and a 1.21 WHIP (.300 BABIP.) 

Graterol is throwing his plus to plus plus fastball at 96-98 mph deep into the games and he can dial it up to triple digits if necessary, supplementing it with a crisp slurve at the 85-87 mph range and a changeup that has improved the last season, but he still needs to command better.  He is throwing from a 3/4 delivery that causes deception.  Graterol is one of the few pitchers in the Twins' organization with top of the rotation stuff, and his ceiling is higher than any other pitcher in the organization, but he still needs work on command and control, esp. with his secondary offering. The 40 innings he pitched last season were Graterol's career high and he will need to be stretched, potentially slowly because of the elbow.

Likely 2018 path: At the Cedar Rapids rotation, potentially after some EST, depending on how the Twins feel about his elbow and the temperatures in the Midwest in April.

 Note:  The next two players are very close, and I could have ranked either at the top spot.

2. Wander Javier (1) SS, 2020
DOB: 12/29/1998; Age: 19
Positions: SS
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'1", Weight: 165 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent 7/2/2015
Professional Experience:2; Highest level: ELZ (2017)
ETA: 2020

Wander Javier was signed by the Twins as an International Free Agent from the Dominican Republic last summer and had yet to play a single professional game, before this season.  His $4 million signing bonus topped what the Twins gave Miguel Sano, and any other amateur player ever for signing with them other than Joe Mauer, Kohl Stewart and Byron Buxton. Javier started his pro career last season in the DSL with a bang, playing in 9 games (30 PA), hitting .308/.400/.654 (199 wRC+, .498 wOBA), with 13.3 BB% and 16.7 K% in a league dominated by pitching, as a 17 year old, before he was shut down with a hamstring injury.  In 2017 he moved to Elizabethton where he hit .299/.383/.471    with a .390 wOBA and 131 wRC+, in a league where the average player was 2.5 years older.  His K% increased to 27.2%, which is more of a data point, than even a slight concern at this point of his career.    

Javier has the highest upside of any position player in the Twins' organization; his tool-set is similar to Byron Buxton's at that age, but with more power and less speed.  At this point, he has 5 above average or better tools, with his arm, and power at above average and fielding, contact and speed approaching plus.  Great work ethic, he gives 100% even at drills at Fort Myers and back field spectators are always impressed by his tendency to try to win all race drills. Unlike Miguel Sano who was also signed as shortstop, Javier projects to stay in the position as a professional.  He has very smooth hands and confident footwork and body control.  Power will come as he fills in.  He had an .172 IsoP at 6-1/165 lbs, which will shoot up as he bulks up.

Likely 2018 path: Starting SS at Cedar Rapids.

1. Royce Lewis (--)
DOB: 12/29/1998; Age: 18
Positions: SS/OF
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'2", Weight: 188 lbs
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round (1st overall) in 2017
Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: N/A
ETA: 2020

Royce Lewis was taken first overall by the Twins in the 2017 draft from J. Serra High School in San Juan Capistrano, CA.  The Aliso Viejo, CA, native started his professional career in the GCL.  There he hit  .271/.390/.414 with a .391 wOBA and 136 wRC+ with 11.9 BB% and 10.7 K% in 36 games and 159 PA.  He moved for the final 18 games of the season (80 PA) all the way to Cedar Rapids where he hit .296/.363/.394 with a .348 wOBA and 117 wRC+, and had 7.5 BB% and 20 K%.  All that in a league in which the average player was 3.2 years older. 

Lewis is a five tool player, with his contact, power, and arm slightly trailing the other 2 tools that are plus, with his speed being close to plus plus.  Already at 6-2/188 as an 18 year old, he might have to shift position from shortstop to centerfield, or even potentially to third base, a position he played early in High School, if he grows more.  His make up, affect, personality, and, workout ethic is off the charts.  The Twins have a great to have difficult decision in where to play Lewis and Javier, if they want to keep both as everyday shortstops in full-season leagues.  Lewis, who is about half a year younger, has been at a higher level, and I expect him to stay this way as long as he stays at SS.  As I indicated earlier Lewis and Javier are very close and either can be ranked as number one at this point.  Javier's ceiling is a bit higher with the bat and he is the better shortstop, but Lewis' speed, charisma, and the fact that was notched ahead of Javier by the Twins, give him the nod in these rankings.  But they are close.

Likely 2018 path: Starting SS at Fort Myers, unless the Twins are willing to have Lewis and Javier play in other positions; in this case, they will both be at Cedar Rapids.

Next: Summary 1-60 and Organizational Overview

 

The Twins seem to hide an ace up their sleeve...

There seem to be some news about to break from Twins' Territory South: 

The Twins have announced that they have send RHP J.T. Chargois through waivers to open a 40-man roster spot.

There are multiple reports that have linked RHP Lance Lynn to the Twins recently:

Jon Heyman
Mark Feinsand
Mark Rose this afternoon at the MLB Network
Christopher Crawford


There is enough smoke, to indicate that the Twins are about to do something. 

Is Lynn the Ace up their sleeve?  We will find out the next couple of days or so...

2018 Twins Off-Season top 60 Prospect List: 6-10

This is the next segment in the 2018 Twins top 60 prospect list.  You can find the introductory segment that discusses qualifications to be on this list and presents the players who were on the 2017 list but are not in this list here.  You can find the list of the previous rankings here:  56-60, 55-51, 46-50 , 41-45, 36-40, 31-35, 26-30, 21-25, 16-20, 11-15.  You can find all segments in this series here.

Here are players 6-10 in reverse order with their 2017 ranking in parenthesis. Players not in the 2017 top 60 list are indicated by (--)

10. Lewin Diaz (3) 1B, 2019
DOB: 11/19/1996; Age: 21
Positions: 1B
Bats: L, Throws: L
Height: 6'3", Weight: 180 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent
Professional Experience: 4; Highest level:A (2017)
ETA: 2020

Lewin Diaz was singed by the Twins as an International Free Agent from the Dominican Republic for $1.4 million bonus on July 2nd, 2013.   The Santiago native made the transition to the US, after a hitting .257/.385/.451 (.411 wOBA, 142 wRC+, 13.8 K%) in the DSL in 2014, his age 17 season.  His first season in the US, he had a few difficulties with the transition, hitting .261/.354/.369 (.357 wOBA, 123 wRC+, 18.9 K%) in 33 games in the GCL and finishing the last 14 games of the season hitting .167/.245/.375 (.285 wOBA, 70 wRC+, 32.1 K%) in Elizabethton.   This was mainly a season of adjustment for Diaz, who would have not earned the promotion had he not hit .522/.607/.696 for August in the GCL, and likely would have served better not making the trip to Elizabethton.  One interesting thing that the numbers do not show about Elizabethton is that those 14 games there were the only night games Diaz has played as a professional, since both the DSL and GCL play day games only.   In 2016 he repeated Elizabethton after extended spring training, playing in 46 games (187 PA) hitting .310/.353/.575 (.409 wOBA, 149 wRC+, 18.7 K%, with a career best .264 isoP and his BABIP at .344, close to his .326 in the GCL the previous season. 2017 was his first time in full season ball at Cedar Rapids.  He hit .292/.329/.444 with a .344 wOBA, 114 wRC+, 4.9 BB%, and 15.7 K%, in 122 games (508 PA/ 466 AB.) 

The strikeout number was a career best for Diaz, who however had a Stateside career worst of .152 IsoP.  In Cedar Rapids he focus on making contact and hitting the ball in all fields, vs hitting for power.  Home run power will definitely come: He is a .7 ground ball to fly ball hitter, and his HR/FB dropped to 6.1% from 15% the previous season.  In other words, if the fly balls were leaving the park at the rate they did for him in 2016, it would translate to 30 HRs.  But that's on paper, and they don't play the game on paper.  His glove has been suspect, but has been improving every year.  Last year both his footwork and range improved and he is getting better instincts for the position to make his glove about average, with room for even more improvement.  It is unlikely that he will be an elite glove at first, but also unlikely to be a liability on the field in that position.

Likely 2018 path: Starting first baseman at Fort Myers 

Note:  The next 3 players are very close, and practically interchangeable in their rankings from number 7 to number 9.

 9. Stephen Gonsalves (6)
DOB: 7/8/1994; Age: 23
Positions: LHP
Bats: L, Throws: L
Height: 6'5", Weight: 213 lbs
Acquired:  Drafted in the 4th round in 2013
Professional Experience: 5; Highest level: AAA (2017)
ETA: 2018

Gonsalves was drafted in the 4th round of the 2013 draft from Cathedral Catholic High School in San Diego and paid an over slot ($700K vs $468K slot) bonus.  Gonsalves has been playing in 2 levels every season in the pros so far with a lot of success, and marked improvement the second time with a team, other than his second season in Elizabethton.  In 2013 he slit time between GLC and Elizabethton, in 2014 between Cedar Rapids and Elizabethton, 2015 between Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers, and last season between Fort Myers and Chattanooga.   In 2015 in  Cedar Rapids he started 9 games (55 IP) walking 15 (2.4 BB/9, 29.7 K-BB%) and striking out 77 (12.6 K/9 and 36.8 % K%) with a 1.15 ERA (2.10 FIP) and 0.80 WHIP (.243 BABIP.)  In Fort Myers he started 15 games (79.3 IP) walking 38 (4.3 BB/9, 5.1 K-BB%) and striking out 55 (6.2 K/9 and 16.5 % K%) with a 2.61 ERA (3.58 FIP) and 1.31 WHIP (.270 BABIP.)  In 2016 he improved considerably at Fort Myers (11 GS, 65-2/3 IP, 66 K, 9.1 K/9,26.1  K%, 20 BB, 2.7 BB/9, 18.2 K-BB%, 2.33 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 0.96 WHIP, .249 BABIP) and did not lose a beat at Chattanooga (13 GS, 74-1/3 IP, 89 K, 10.8 K/9, 30.1  K%, 37 BB, 4.5 BB/9, 17.6 K-BB%, 1.82 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, .255 BABIP.)  He made 4 starts at the Arizona fall league for a career high 148-2/3 innings that season and was named the Twins' minor league pitcher of the year, an award whose recipients seems to be cursed.  And, following suit, Gonsalves was shut down in Spring Training with shoulder issues.  Those issues were resolved and joined the AA Chattanooga team in late May.  He made 15 starts (87-1/3 IP), striking out 96 (9.9 K/9, 27.3 K%) and walking 23 (2.4 BB/9, 20.7 BB-K%).  He had a 2.68 ERA, 2.88 FIP and 1.03 WHIP (.270 BABIP).  He was promoted to AAA Rochester in August and he lost steam.  He pitched in 5 games (4 starts) for 22-1/3 inning, striking out 22 (8.7 K/9, 21.8 K%) and walking 8 (3.2 BB/9, 13.9 K-BB%) , with a 5.56 ERA, 4.75 FIP, and 1.54 WHIP (.343 BABIP).  In addition to the increased BABIP in Rochester, his HR/FB rate that been traditionally at 6% or lower, jumped to close to 14%. Hard to use those 5 games at the end of the season to make predictions, but they are just data points.

Gonslaves is a pitcher with a high floor, that of a number 5 starter or late inning reliever, and a low ceiling, that of a number 4 starter.  There are questions about how his stuff will translate in the majors: Gonsalves has an above average to plus low to mid 90s fastball with good command and control, which has a high spin rate making it hard to hit up in the zone, generating a lot of swings and misses. I am not sure that this tactic can generate as many outs in the majors.  His changeup is a plus pitch and very effective, especially against RHBs.  He throws two breaking balls: an average to below average slow curve, and a work in progress slurvy sliders.  Command of his breaking balls is occasional at this point.  His delivery is a bit worrisome, in light of the shoulder issue last season, as he cocks his shoulder behind his body.  After that part, he is all arms and legs and throws from a 3/4 position and causes deception to the batters. He has some difficulties in repeating his delivery which results in occasional loss of command and that is translated with an increase in walks and decrease in strikeouts.  When that happens, Gonsalves has been successful so far by inducing weak movement.  Pitching to weak contact and needed to paint the corners to succeed is a risky recipe for success and despite Gonsalves doing it in every level, there is a feeling that it will just take him that far, especially when he has a long frame and with the difficulties in repeating his delivery, which results in the up and down command issue, not to mention the shoulder considerations. Gonsalves was added to the Twins 40-man roster this off-season.

Likely 2018 Path:  Depending on health and on transactions, fighting for a spot in the Twins' rotation. Likely in the majors in 2018, barring injuries, trades etc.

8. Zack Littell  (--)
DOB: 10/5/1995; Age: 22
Positions: RHP
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'4", Weight: 220 lbs
Acquired:  Traded by the Yankees
Professional Experience: 5; Highest level: AA (2017)
ETA: 2018

Zack Littell was selected by Mariners in 11th round of 2013 draft from the Eastern Alamance, NC, High School.  He spent his first pro-season in the Mariners' Arizona League Rookie squad where he pitched in 10 games, making 7 starts, for 33-1/3 innings, striking out 28 (7.6 K/9, 18.4 K%) and walking 13 (3.5 BB/9, 9.9 K-BB%), finishing with a 5.94 ERA, 4.37 FIP, and 1.56 WHIP (.343 BABIP).  That was the starting point of his professional career and he has improved pretty much every season.  In 2014 he played for the Appalachian League Pulaski Mariners where he started 13 games for 69-2/3 IP, striking out 64 (8.3 K/9, 21.6 K%) and walking 12 (1.6 BB/9, 17.5 K-BB), with a 4.52 ERA, 3.15 FIP, and 1.25 WHIP (.343 BABIP).  He started 2015 with the full season A Clinton LumberKings of the Midwest League where he made 21 starts for 112-2/3 innings, striking out 84 (6.7 K/9, 17.4 K%), walking 30 (2.4 BB/9, 11.2 K-BB%), with a 3.91 ERA, 3.27 FIP, and 1.34 WHIP (.324 BABIP).  He repeated A ball in 2016 making 16 starts (97-2/3 IP, 2.76 ERA, 2.96 FIP, 8.8 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 24.2 K%, 18.8 K-BB%, 1.18 WHIP, .332 BABIP) before he was promoted to high A California League Bakersfield Blaze where he continued his success (12 G, 11 GS, 68 IP, 2.51 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 8.1 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 22.1 K%, 17.4 K-BB%, and 1.13 WHIP/.311 BABIP.)  He logged a total of 165-2/3 innings in the 2016 season and was traded to Yankees for LHP James Pazos, on November of 2016.  He started last season for the Yankees in High A Tampa (13 G, 11 GS, 1.77 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 7.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 20.2 K%, 14.9 K-BB%, 1.12 WHIP, .302 BABIP) and moved to Eastern League AA Trenton (7 GS, 44 IP, 2.05 ERA, 2.29 FIP, 10.6 K/9, 29.7 K%, 1.6 BB/9, 25.1 K-BB%, 1.02 WHIP, .304 BABIP.)  He was traded with LHP Dietrich Enns to Twins for LHP Jaime Garcia at the trade deadline and jumped into the Twins AA Chattanooga team where he started 7 more games (41.2 IP, 2.81 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 7.1 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 19 K%, 8.6 K-BB%, 1.22 WHIP, .274 BABIP.)  He regressed a bit at Chattanooga, likely running out of steam after 157 innings, but he assembled an excellent 19-1 win/loss record for the season in all 3 steps.

Littell was listed at 6-foot-3, 190 pounds at high school, and gained an inch and 30 pounds as he grew. He has a two-seam fastball that sits at 89-91 and has a cutter like movement, a four-seamer that he throws at 92-93, which plays up because of high spin rate and advanced command. His main secondary offering is a true plus curveball. He also has an above average changeup that works well against LHBs.  Littell is a student of the game and he spends a lot of time in advanced preparation before each start studying the opponents' hitters, a practice that will serve him well in the bigs. He has the ceiling of a mid-rotation starter with the possibility of seasons better than that.  A young Phil Hughes is a good comparable for Littell, as far as the size and type of pitcher he is, as well as his potential.  Littell was added to the Twins 40-man roster this off-season.

Likely 2018 Path:  Depending on further transactions, fighting for a spot in the Twins' rotation during Spring Training. Likely in AAA Rochester most of the season with a potential trip to the majors in September or before, depending on the Twins' needs and their record

7. Blayne Enlow (--)
DOB: 3/21/1999; Age: 18
Positions: RHP
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'3", Weight: 170 lbs
Acquired:  Drafted in the 3rd round in 2017
Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: GCL (2017)
ETA: 2020

Enlow was drafted by the Twins in the 3rd round of the 2017 draft from St. Amant, LA, and signed for $2 million, well above slot, in order to forfeit his commitment to LSU.  He started his pro career in the GCL where he pitched in 6 games (1 GS) for 20-1/3 innings, striking out 19 (8.4 K/9, 24.7 K/%), walking 4 (1.8 BB/9, 19.5 K-BB%), with a 1.33 ERA, 3.08 FIP, and 0.69 WHIP/.177 BABIP. He is very polished for a prep pitcher and he is very projectable.  Has a easy repeatable delivery, with a close to plus fastball that he throws at 92-94 and the potential to grow a few ticks as he gets more muscle, a true plus curveball that flashes plus plus, and an average changeup with potential for improvement.  He added a high 80s cutter as a pro, that is a work in progress. Still lots of ways to go, but Enlow has front of the rotation potential and already what a lot of people think the best curveball in the system.

Likely 2018 Path:  Extended Spring Training, then at the Elizabethton rotation.

 6. Rainis Silva (32)
DOB: 3/20/1996; Age: 21
Positions: C
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'1", Weight: 185 lbs
Acquired:   International Free Agent signing 2012
Professional Experience: 5; Highest level: A (2016)
ETA: 2020

Who is Rainis Silva and why do I have him ranked this high?  This is what I wrote about him last off-season when he was ranked 32nd:

Rainis Silva was signed by the Twins as an international free agent from Venezuela on July 9, 2012.  The Barquisimeto, Venezuela native received an $175,000 bonus.  He has been in my top prospect lists for the third time in a row and this is his worst ranking.  Silva is an exceptional catcher with the skills to catch in the majors right now, with a great game calling capacity, excellent defense and strong arm, averaging 35-40% CS.  His problem has been his bat, which in 4 seasons now has been consistently bad.  His career slash line is .238/.295/.293 and his OPS variation (.539 in DSL in 2013, .636 in the GCL in 2014, .635 in Elizabethton and .572 in Cedar Rapids in 2015, and .551 in Cedar Rapids in 2016) were driven by his isoP that has varied from .024 to .097.

Why is Rainis Silva even in the list, no matter how good his fielding is, since he has no power and he is hitting so lightly?  First of all he is still 20 years old.  Secondly, he actually hits LHP very well now and he improved.  Here are his OPS against LHP by year and league: .539 in DSL in 2013, .521 in the GCL in 2014, .940 in Elizabethton and .889 in Cedar Rapids in 2015, and .754 in Cedar Rapids in 2016.  So something clicked for him in 2015 and continued to work in 2016.  Those OPS numbers are more than acceptable for a catcher, albeit in a platoon if necessary.  The hope is that something will click for the 20 year old when facing RHPs as well and reach his potential as solid every day bat with elite defense in the C position, otherwise his ceiling would be that of a platoon player.

So what happened for Silva in 2017?  The Twins took a step back and kept him in Extending Spring Training to address his hitting, before he moved to Elizabethton for the rest of the season, and he arrived with a bang: He hit .356/.446/.446 with a .416 wOBA and 147 wRC+, with a career high 13.8 BB%, and career low 6.5 K%, as well as a career high 32.5% line drive percentage. There were concerns regarding his ability to face RHP.  He hit righties at a .433/.532/.567    rate (60 AB) in Elizabethton, which was remarkable.  In addition he had his best defensive season behind the plate with just 1 error and 2 passed balls, and threw out a career best 43% of the runners. It will be interesting to see how the improvements in his hitting will translate to full season ball, but I am confident that they will.  His potential is that of an elite glove and above average bat in the majors now, thus the ranking.  Catchers blossom later, so there is no reason for the Twins to rush him, other than the fact that he will be Rule 5 draft eligible next off-season.

Likely 2018 path:  Catching at Fort Myers or Cedar Rapids, depending on his spring.

Next: the top 5

2018 Twins Off-Season top 60 Prospect List: 11-15

This is the next segment in the 2018 Twins top 60 prospect list.  You can find the introductory segment that discusses qualifications to be on this list and presents the players who were on the 2017 list but are not in this list here.  You can find the list of the previous rankings here:  56-60, 55-51, 46-50 , 41-45, 36-40, 31-35, 26-30, 21-25, 16-20.  You can find all segments in this series here.

Here are players 11-15 in reverse order with their 2017 ranking in parenthesis. Players not in the 2017 top 60 list are indicated by (--)

15. Michael Montero (--)
DOB: 1/6/2000; Age: 18
Positions:RHP
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'3", Weight: 190 lbs
Acquired: Signed as an international free agent in July 2, 2016
Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: DSL (2017)
ETA: 2021

Montero was signed as an international free agent by the Twins in July 2, 2016 from Valencia Venezuela for a bonus of about $150,000.  2017 was his first professional season and he pitched in the DSL as a 17 year old.  He started 13 games (58-1/3 IP), struck out 64 (9.9 K/9, 27.7 K%), walked 12 (1.9 BB/9, 22.5 K-BB%) and finished with a 2.78 ERA, 2.61 FIP, and 0.96 WHIP (.279 BABIP).  He has three above average pitches: low 90s fastball, slider, and change up and he commands all three well. Has a projectable frame, already at 6-3 and 190 lbs, very good feel for the game and is not afraid to attack the strike zone.  Great composure on the mount. He should add 3-4 ticks to his fastball as he grows and sharpen the rest of his pitches.  Flashes of top of the rotation potential; a prospect worth following. 

Likely 2018 path: Extended Spring Training and then at the GCL rotation.

14. Luis Arraez IF (11), 2019
DOB: 4/9/1997; Age: 20
Positions: 2B
Bats: L, Throws: R
Height: 5'10", Weight: 155 lbs
Acquired:   International Free Agent signing 2013
Professional Experience: 4; Highest level: A+ (2017)
ETA: 2019

Luis Arraez was signed by the Twins as an international free agent from the Venezuela on November 3rd, 2013.  The San Felipe native opened some eyes in his first professional season in the DSL hitting  .348/.433/.400 (147 wRC+) in 31 games (135 PA).  The next season he moved to the GCL where he continued his success hitting .309/.377/.391 (133 wRC+) in 57 games (233 PA).  Last season he played for class A Cedar Rapids where he was the fifth youngest player in the Midwest League.  He hit .347/.386/.444 (146 wRC+) in 114 games (514 PA).  He continued the season in the Venezuelan Winter League where he hit .335/.382/.445 with 15 BB and 15 K this in 45 games (182 AB.)  He started 2017 at Fort Myers and he was on fire hitting .385/.385/.538 with a.418 wOB and 168 wRC+ in the first 3 games (13 PA) of the season before he tore his ACL after awkwardly tripping over first base, and spend the rest of the season recuperating from surgery.   

Other than Cedar Rapids where he was 31:51, Arraez has had at least equal strikeouts to walks, and his K% was never higher than 9.9%.  His splits last season was pretty equal for the lefty hitting Arraez: .333/.378/.422 vs LHP and .351/.388/.450 vs RHPs.  He finished the season with a .374/.398/.457    slash line the second half that included a very impressive .425/.444/.487 performance in August.  His swing is compact with great bat control and plus bat speed, quick wrists and the ability to hit the opposite way. His power has been improving (0.052 to 0.082 to 0.097 isoP), his contact has remained fairly high (.374, .323, and .382 BABIP) and he has decent speed but not good base stealing instincts (career 21/37 SB).  His play at second base has been improving every season and he was +13 DRS in Cedar Rapids.  Arraez is starting to look more and more like a two way player with All-Star bat potential, but he is still very young.  Speed has not been much of his game but the ACL tear might affect his future, thus the drop in the rankings.  Arraez has likely the best hit tool in the Twins' system.

Likely 2018 path: Starting 2B at Fort Myers or even Chattanooga depending on his Spring Training. 

13. Alex Kirilloff (8) OF, 2020
DOB: 11/9/1997; Age: 20
Positions: OF
Bats: L, Throws: L
Height: 6'2", Weight: 195 lbs
Acquired:  Drafted in the 1st round in 2016
Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: Rookie/Elizabethton (2016)
ETA: 2020

Alex Kirilloff was drafted by the Twins in the 1st round (15th overall) of the 2016 draft from Plum High School in the Pittsburgh area, where he played baseball while being homeschooled.  His father who used to be in the Pirates' organization as a scout and coach, is a professional hitting coach, offering both facilities and instruction to amateurs, including his son.  In High School Alex Kirilloff was a two way player.  As a pitcher he has a 89-92 mph fastball that was good enough to go 5-1 in limited competition, but was not going to get him to the next level.  Power and arm strength are Kirilloff's best tools and he projects as a rightfielder.  The transition to wood bat was seamless for him, hitting .306/.341/.454 in 55 games (232 PAs) in Elizabethton.  He has 9 2Bs, 1 3B, and 7 HRs, walking 11 (4.7%) and striking out 13.8%.  He was 0/1 in stolen bases.  He was named the Appalachian League’s player of the year.  Unfortunately, he had Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow and missed all the 2017 season recovering.

There is definitely some power potential with his .148 isoP likely doubling at some point.  He has good judgement of the strike zone and makes contact that is successful (.328 BABIP.)   His swing is a bit complicated both with leg and shoulder action, but so far it works. It will be interesting to see how this will translate in the next levels when he will be looking at more off-speed and breaking balls. It might require some rework to quieten it up and shorten it.  The Tommy John surgery is not usually an issue for a position player, but Kirilloff's arm was not elite before it, and he might be relegated to left field or first base in the long run.

2018 Likely path:  Starting the season in single A Cedar Rapids

12. Tyler Jay (2)
DOB: 4/19/1994; Age: 23
Positions: LHP
Bats: L, Throws: L
Height: 6'1", Weight: 180 lbs
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round in 2015
Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: AA (2016,2017)
ETA: 2018

Tyler Jay was drafted by the Twins 6th overall in 2015 from University of Illinois.  The Lemont, IL native was mainly the closer in College appearing in 30 games (2 starts) in his Junior season pitching for 66.7 innings, walking 7 (0.9 BB/9) and striking out 77  (10.3 K/9) with a 1.08 ERA and 0.70 WHIP.  He moved on to the Fort Myers' bullpen with the Twins to appear in an additional 19 games (18.2 IP) where he walked 8 (3.9 BB/9, 17.3 K-BB%) and struck out 22 (10.8 K/9, 27.2 K%) for a 3.93 ERA (2.07 FIP) and 1.42 WHIP (.353 BABIP).  The Twins view Jay as a starter and he made the transition to the Miracle rotation this season where he started 13 games (69-2/3 IP) struck out 68 (8.8 K/9, 23.6 K%), walked 21 (2.7 BB/9, 16.3 K-BB%) and finished with a 2.84 ERA, 3.31 FIP, and 1.22 WHIP (.311 BABIP).  He moved to Chattanooga in July, where he pitched in 5 games (2 starts) before ending his season on the disabled list because of a sore neck. He pitched only 14 innings (9 K, 5.8 K/9, 5 BB, 3.2 BB/9, 6.9 K-BB%, 5.79 ERA, 4.96 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, .262 BABIP).  After the 2016 season the Twins Front Office decided to stop the Jay as a starter experiment and relegated him full time to the pen.  The 2017 season was practically lost for Jay due to injuries that limited him to 11-2/3 innings, including rehab.  Those injuries started with bicep tendonitis, right after spring day and a Left shoulder impingement on the beginning of July that ended his season.  It was thought that he might require Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery, but he did not.  He pitched 9-2/3 innings at the Arizona Fall League.

When Jay is healthy, and in the pen, he has a plus to plus plus fastball that sits at 93-95 and peaks and 97-98 (not bad at all for a lefty) which he complements with a plus slider, an average curve ball and an average changeup that has flashed some potential.  As a reliever he is likely to be a fastball/slider pitcher with occasionally throwing his lesser offerings, unless the change up improves to plus quality, being useful against RHBs. He dropped several points from the number 2 ranking last season, because of his health issues and the move to the pen.  Jay, if healthy can help the Twins this season.  He was not invited to the major league camp this spring.

Likely 2018 path: Likely starting the season at  Rochester health allowing, and moving to the Twins' pen some time during the season.

11. Akil Baddoo (24) OF , 2020
DOB: 8/16/1992; Age: 19
Positions: OF
Bats: L, Throws: L
Height: 5'11", Weight: 185 lbs
Acquired:  Drafted in the 2nd round in 2016
Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: ELZ (2017)
ETA: 2020

Akil Baddoo was drafted by the Twins in the 2nd round of the 2016 draft from Salem (GA) High School.  Baddoo did not turn 18 until after his first professional season at GLC.  He had a very hard time making the transition to a wooden bat (.178/.299/.271, 36 K for 28.3 K%, and 18 BB in 128 PA.)  His bat came alive in 2017, when he repeated the GCL (.267/.360/.440, .381 wOBA, 130 wRC+, 10.5 BB%, 15.1 K% in 20 games, 86 PA) and sizzled at Elizabethton (.357/.478/.579,.476 wOBA, 183 wRC+, 17.2 BB%, 12.1 K%, in 33 games, 157 PA)       

He flashed speed both on the bases (9/13 SB and 5 triples) and on the field where he is fast as a centerfielder, and this season he improved his routes considerably.  He has a quick bat and soft hands, and his eye at the plate has matured to a major asset.  He is a potential 5 tool player, with his throwing arm power arrived last season and home run power expected to arrive soon. He is still growing and has an impressive physique.  Makeup and workout ethic are off the charts.  If he does well against full season competition, expect a rise into the top 5 prospects, and national media recognition.

Likely 2018 path: Starting CF at Cedar Rapids.

Next: 6-10

From the horse's mouth: Why Jake Odorizzi stunk last season but trading for him does not stink for the Twins

The Minnesota Twins announced that they traded their 20th prospect Jermaine Palacios to the Tampa Bay Rays for RHP Jake Odorizzi.  This is the second recent "buy low" acquisition of a pitcher who had a rough 2017, but all signs point to an improvement in 2018.  I have discussed why the acquisition of Anibal Sanchez makes sense for the Twins here; the reasons that Odorizzi will improve are slightly different.

Today (2/18/18) the Front Office show on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM with Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette had an exclusive interview with Odorizzi.   In that Odorizzi mentioned that hamstring and back issues in 2017, impacted him "quite a bit" last season.  Especially his back bothered him since Spring Training.  As a result he made mechanical adjustments to compensate for the pain, which created "bad habits" cutting his extension point short when finishing pitches and became more of a "side to side" vs "up and down" pitcher.  He was "constantly tinkering" until he went to the DL got enough rest and came back feeling the way he "should feel."  It took him "a bit" to fix his mechanics, but felt good at the end of the season.

And the numbers support this.

After he returned from the DL in August, for the rest of the season, his pitching line looked like this:

3.51 ERA, 48-2/3 IP, 26 BB, 45 K, .186 OBA, average Game Score 53

In September, when his mechanics cleared up his line looked like this:

1.03 ERA, 26-1/3 IP, 9 BB, 30 K,  .116 OBA, average Game Score 64

The Twins will be thrilled if they get the September Odorizzi.  These are Ace numbers, but they will not mind getting the August to September Odorizzi.  And all of that for their number 20 prospect who was behind 3 other shortstops (Nick Gordon, Wander Javier, and Royce Lewis, alphabetically) in the Twins' shortstop prospect depth.   This is a great trade for the Twins and they will reap the benefits in 2018.

Anibal ad portas: 10 reasons why the Anibal Sanchez signing makes sense for the Twins.

The Twins have signed free agent RHP Anibal Sanchez, formerly of the Detroit Tigers to an 1 year contract that is for about $2.5 million with the same amount in incentives.  The deal is not guaranteed so there is no down side for the Twins.  Looking at Sanchez's 2017 in a traditional way (starting in the pen, being demoted, moving into the rotation and finishing with a 3-7 record, 6.41 ERA and 1.59 WHIP,) makes this signing borderline nonsensical, and even more so given the verbal assurances by the new Twins' front office that improving the front of the rotation was a priority.

All that aside, I believe that this is a good signing for the Twins.  Here are 10 reasons why:

1. The Twins will likely still sign a top of the rotation starter.  Sanchez's signing has more to do about what they think the ability of Phil Hughes and Adalberto Mejia is at this point than about filling the top of the Twins rotation
2. Sanchez's signing will give another year for Stephen Gonsalves & Fernando Romero to work on their deficiencies (fastball location, command and movement & endurance, respectively) before they are forced to be parts of the Twins' rotation
3. Even if  Sanchez frizzles during Spring Training or even in April or May and gets released, the Twins are left with what they had before they signed him and the fact that his contract is non-guaranteed makes the financial risk also very small.  In other words:  He is just another arm to compete for a spot.  If he makes the team great, if he does not, the Twins did not gain or lose anything.  In yet another words, this is like Sanchez coming in to fight for a position.  If he gets it good, if he does not, no harm.
4. The Tigers had him start the season in the pen and transitioned him to the rotation later in the year, pretty much messing him up. Starting the season in the rotation, he might be much better. Despite that, his average game score in 17 starts was 46 (50 is MLB average), and this includes an game that he pitched one scoreless inning as a starter and a game with an 8 game score, in which he should had departed earlier
5. He pitched in post season games in 3 different seasons with a 2.79 ERA, 26.7 K%, 18.0 K-BB%, and 1.16 WHIP, bringing something that the Twins could value down the road.
6. His traditional 2017 numbers were an abberration.  His .354 BABIP, 19.3 HR/FB, and 67.1% LOB are due for a huge possitive regression 
7. His 21.6 K% in 2017 was bettered only by Jose Berrios from all the 2017 starters
8. His and 15.6 K-BB% in 2017 would have been better that that of each and every 2017 Twins' starter
9. His 4.16 SIERA in 2017would have been better that that of each and every 2017 Twins' starter
10. He is not a pitch to a contact guy.  His 9.8 SwStr% in 2017 was just higher that Berrios's (9.5)

2018 Twins Off-Season top 60 Prospect List: 16-20

This is the next segment in the 2018 Twins top 60 prospect list.  You can find the introductory segment that discusses qualifications to be on this list and presents the players who were on the 2017 list but are not in this list here.  You can find the list of the previous rankings here:  56-60, 55-51, 46-50 , 41-45, 36-40, 31-35, 26-30, 21-25.  You can find all segments in this series here.

Here are players 16-20 in reverse order with their 2017 ranking in parenthesis. Players not in the 2017 top 60 list are indicated by (--)

20. Jermaine Palacios (31) SS/3B, 2020
DOB: 7/19/1996; Age: 21
Positions: SS
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'0", Weight: 145 lbs
Acquired:   International Free Agent signing 2013
Professional Experience: 4; Highest level: A+ (2017)
ETA: 2019

Jermaine Palacios was signed by the Twins as an international free agent from Barquisimeto, Venezuela on July 7, 2013.  In 2014, as a 17 year old he hit .270/.404/.399 in 225 PAs in the DSL (league average OPS: .671), as an 18 year old the first half of 2015 he hit .421/.472/.589 in 106 PAs in the GCL (league average OPS: .649) and .336/.345/.507 in 149 PAs as 2.5 year younger than the average Appalachian League Player (league average OPS: .731).  In 2016 he was promoted to Cedar Rapids, started very cold (.471 OPS in April and .514 OPS in May) and started warming up (.613 OPS in June and .714 OPS in July) as the weather did, before his season ended on July 17 with a fractured left (glove) hand.  His overall slash line was .222/.276/.287 and .306/.346/.367 for July.  He does not walk much or strikeout much, but for some reason in addition not to making much contact early in the season, his isoP dropped from .171 and .168 in his two 2015 stops to 0.065, and his BABIP took an about 200 point tumble to .253 from the .375 and .464 in his 2015 stops (it was .333 in 2014.)  He repeated Cedar Rapids in 2016 where he excelled in 62 games (276 PA) hitting .320/.362/.544 with a .404 wOBA and 154 wRC+.  His BABIP moved up to .356.  Mid-season he moved to Fort Myers as a 20 year old and he cooled up considerably.  He hit .269/.303/.359 with a .306 wOBA and 92 wRC+, but he was close to 3 years younger than the league.

Palacios had wrist issues in 2016 that seem behind him, based on the Cedar Rapids performance.  His BABIP at Fort Myers was at .322, which is where he has been when good.  His K% rose to 20.2 from the 16.7 in Cedar Rapids and his BB% dropped to a career low 3.8 from 4.3 at Cedar Rapids. He was 20/35 at stolen bases between both stops.  Hard to tell the root cause of his problems at Fort Myers, but he had reverse splits, hitting righties at a respectable .280/.316/.390 rate and lefties at only .238/.265/.270.  It could be pitch recognition.  Palacios will likely stay as a short stop, since his glove plays at the position and he has improved.  It would be beneficiary for the 21-year old to repeat Fort Myers starting in the season, but he might be pushed up because of the numbers: Twins top prospects Royce Lewis and Wander Javier are both shortstops, in need of a full-season ball home and likely will start at Fort Myers and Cedar Rapids, respectively, which will push Palacios to Chattanooga, ready or not.

Likely 2018 path:  Starting shortstop at Fort Myers or Chattanooga, depending on his and other players' health.

19. Jean Carlos Arias (36)
DOB: 1/14/1998; Age: 20
Positions: CF
Bats: L, Throws: L
Height: 5'11", Weight: 170 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent 7/2/2014
Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: GCL (2016, 2017)
ETA: 2020

Jean Carlos Arias was signed by the Twins as an International Free Agent from  Santiago de los Caballeros, Dominican Republic the summer of 2014.  In his first professional season in the DSL he hit .311/.378/.537 with 18 BB, 30 K, 13 2B, 9 3B and 2 HRs in 189 PAs.  He was 11/17 in stolen bases.  That .914 OPS is not quite at Miguel Sano level (Sano hit .344/.463/.547 at age 17 in the DSL), but cannot be ignored in a league where the average OPS is .680.  His wOBA was .425 and wRC+ 151, which are also on the ridiculous level. Arias destroyed RHPs at the rate of .330/.390/.568. Reports from the Dominican have the 17 year old Arias, who batted at the number 3 spot for the DSL Twins, is a true 5-tool Centerfielder.  In 2016 he moved to the United States for Extended Spring Training and later to the GCL where he played an error-less OF in all 3 outfield positions and struggled with the bat hitting .202/.265/.266 with 10 BB and 28 K, stealing 7/10 bases and only 6 xBH / 25 H in 45 games (124 AB.)  He repeated the GCL last season with much better results:  .298/.359/.476,  .393 wOBA and     138 wRC+ in 185 AB in 48 games.  His IsoP increased to .179 and BABIP to .372, close to his first professional season in the Dominican.  The strikeouts were a tad high at 22.7% compared to 7.6 BB%. He made the Post-season GCL All Star team.  Arias has a plus glove at centerfield with excellent range and sure-handedness.  As far his bat goes, he still needs a bit of work against LHP (.255/.345/.255) but he destroys RHP (.316/.365/.573).

Likely 2018 path: Extended Spring Training and the Elizabethton starting centerfielder.  Outside chance of moving to Cedar Rapids, depending on the Twins' draft and his Spring Training.

18. Jose Miranda (--)
DOB: 6/29/1998; Age: 20
Positions: IF
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'2", Weight: 180 lbs
Acquired: Drafted in the second supplementary round of 2016
Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: ELZ (2017)
ETA: 2021

Jose Miranda was drafted by the Twins in the second supplementary round of 2016 from Leadership Christian High School at Guaynobo, PR.  His hit tool was his best tool, but in his first season as a pro in 2016 in the GCL, Miranda struggled.  He hit .227/.308/.292 with a .291 wOBA and a 83 wRC+.  Upon moving to Elizabethton last season, he showed why he was a 2nd round pick.  He hit .283/.340/.484 with a .367 wOBA and a 117 wRC+.  He had a .202 IsoP, 6.5 BB% and only 9.7 K%, in 55 games (247 PA).  He played mostly second base in 2017, and a mix of second, short, and third in 2016. His footwork and instincts are below average at this point, and his arm is just average, which indicates that second, first, or left field might be his future home.  He utilizes all fields and was tied for the lead in HRs in the Appalachian League with 11. He was a post season Appy League All-Star and received the MiLB.com organization All Star Award, both last season.  Miranda hit .299/.344/.521 off RHP and .232/.32/.375 off LHP, which might indicate a slight difficulty in off-speed ball recognition from lefties.   His bat is ahead of his glove, but his glove is not horrible.

Likely 2018 path: Somewhere in the Cedar Rapids outfield.

17. Tyler Wells (54), RHP  2020
DOB: 8/26/1994; Age: 23
Positions: RHP
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'8", Weight: 265 lbs
Acquired: Drafted in the 15th round in 2016
Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: A (2017)
ETA: 2020

Tyler Wells was drafted by the Twins in the 15th round of the 2016 draft from California State San Bernandino.  The Oklahoma native was a starter there for 3 seasons, pitching in 38 games (35 starts) for a total of 204 innings, striking out 191 (8.4 K/9), walking 90 (4.0 K/9), with a 3.84 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.  His last (junior) season he had better results (2.84 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 15 games, 92 IP) while his peripherals remained pretty much constant (8.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9) which indicates that he got a better feel in pitching.  He continued as a pro to Elizabethton where he started 10 games (47-1/3 IP), striking out 59 (11.2 K/9, 29.2 K%) and walking 17 (3.2 BB/9, 20.8% K-BB%) finishing with a 3.23 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 1.20 WHIP (.328 BABIP).  In total 2016 has been a good year for Wells, starting 25 games for 149-1/3 IP between college and rookie league.  In the 2017 season Wells made 14 starts for Cedar Rapids, pitching 75-1/3 innings, striking out 92 (11.0 K/9, 29.6 K%) and walking 22 (2.6 BB/9, 22.5 K-BB%).  He had a 3.11 ERA, 3.05 FIP, and 1.13 WHIP (.302 BABIP.)  He missed some time last season with elbow strain, and also played in 4 rehab games in the GCL.

Wells is a very durable starter and has the physique of a football tight end.  As a high school senior he was listed at 6'7" and 212 lbs. At San Bernandino he grew an inch and filled up his frame to 265 lbs, without being overweight.  As a collegiate his strikeouts were in bursts.  He had games where his strike outs were in double digits and games where there were few.  His results as a pro show hope that he can consistently keep his strikeout high by getting a better feel for his stuff from start to start.  Wells throws an above average fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup. His plus slider is a true out pitch.  His mechanics are very good and consistent for his size and there is a lot of potential for improvement of his pitches, which in combination with his durability, makes Wells an interesting prospect

Likely 2018 Path: In the Fort Myers rotation.

16. Nick Gordon (5)
DOB: 10/14/1995; Age: 21
Positions: IF
Bats: L, Throws: R
Height: 6'0", Weight: 160 lbs
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round in 2014
Professional Experience: 4; Highest level: AA (2017)
ETA: 2018

Nick Gordon was drafted by the Twins as the 5th overall player in the 2014 draft from Olympia High School in Orlando, FL.   He started his pro career in 2014 playing for Elizabethton hitting .294/.333/.366 (101 wRC+) with 11 BB and 45 K (17.6 %), and 11/18 SB (61%).  In 2015 for Cedar Rapids, he hit .277/.336/.360 (104 wRC+) with 39 BB and 88 K (16.5 %), 25/33 SB (76%).  There was incremental improvement on the base paths, but in general similar results.  At this point he exhibited some gap power (23 doubles, 7 triples and 1 HRs in 535 PAs, 0.083 isoP), but it does get neutralized against LHPs (.264/.325/.291; only extra base hits were 3 doubles in 110 PAs against LHPs.)  He started the 2016 season in Fort Myers, where he made a leap forward hitting .291/.335/.386 (112 wRC+) in 116 games (493 PAs), with 17,6 K% and 0.095 isoP, stealing 19/32 bases.  His BABIP (.353) was close to his .333 and .352 of the previous 2 seasons, which means that a BABIP around .350s is not out of question.  He continued in the Arizona Fall League, where he hit a very impressive .346/.418/.444 (144 wRC+) in 21 games (91 PA), but inflated due to an unsustainable .475 BABIP.  Last season he played at Chattanooga, where he hit a career best .270/.341/.408 with a .344 wOBA and 117 wRC+.  He also had career bests with 9.2 BB% and .139 IsoP as well as career worst 23.2 K%.

Gordon's glove is about average at SS but the footwork and lateral movement is not there to believe that he can be a first tier major league shortstop.  His bat still projects as a major league average, however he was again neutralized against LHPs (.174/.273/.240 in 121 AB in AA last season.)   He had good speed, but not great base stealing instincts that need a lot of work.  This season was his greatest work load with 578 PA and Gordon showed that his his 6-0/160 lb frame might just not be durable enough for a full season.  He hit a robust .315/.376/.504 in the first half, and he followed by a lackluster .221/.304/.305    the second half.  His last two seasons overall are promising, but the ones who were hoping for a star with the 5th overall pick would be disappointed at Gordon, because he does not project as one. In addition, there seem to be make up issues, because instead of focusing on working on his baseball weaknesses this off-season, Gordon chose to produce music videos, including one in which he was wearing clothing with another MLB team's insignia.  With Polanco as the Twins SS of the present, and Palacios, Lewis, and Javier right behind Gordon, at shortstop and Arraez and Miranda at second base, maybe the Twins' best way of dealing with Gordon is to use him as a center piece for a trade for pitching, as long as he still is highly ranked in the National prospect lists.

Likely 2018 path: Starting AAA Rochester shortstop 

Next: 11-15