Mike Pelfrey is about to be lost for the season and the Twins are being quiet

This season Mike Pelfrey has been very ineffective for the Twins.  Earlier this month, the Twins attributed the reason for Pelfrey's ineffectiveness to a groin injury, and placed him on the 15-day disabled list.   One of the obvious signs of concern was that even in his rehab assignment at AAA Rochester, Pelfrey could barely touch 90 mph with his fastball, losing a good 5-6 mph from last season.  After his last start at Rochester, he complained about his shoulder and the doctors concluded that it was his elbow that was "irritated".

Between then and now, additional information has been disclosed: 

• In addition to his Tommy John Surgery 2 years ago, Pelfrey had Ulnar Nerve Transposition surgery performed by Dr. James Andrews.
• His elbow has been hurting, since Spring Training and there was "tinkling" in his fingers
• He is on his way to visit Dr Andrews and the Twins are hoping that medication will take care of it, but he might have surgery if needed "there and then".

So Mike Pelfrey is about to get under the knife early next week. This is really bad news for the Twins, because these type of surgeries take 2-3 months before someone resumes activities with that arm and 4-6 months before someone can even challenge that arm in a game.  It is not "minor" as indicated in multiple places in that piece, likely based on the Twins' acting GM words.  4 to 6 weeks from now is October and November.   This explains a lot about Pelfrey's performance, but it does not help the Twins.  At least there is potential help at AAA Rochester in Trevor May and  Alex Meyer.

Ben Revere does something he has never done before

Aaron Hicks Stops Switch Hitting

It was just announced that Aaron Hicks has decided to stop switch-hitting and will exclusively hit as a Right Hand Batter.  This decision (which he made, suggesting that he lost confidence on hitting left-handed) was bless by the Twins' manager.  Hicks was hitting 263/.417/.342 (109 OPS+) as RHB and .149/.284/.209 as LHB so far in 2014.   There might be some adjustment hitting from the right side against RHPs, however it is a worth-while decision, which might give the Twins a reliable bat (and glove, who has been named as a top 100 prospect by Baseball America in 4 different seasons, and as late as 2013) at Center Field, without having to deal with transactions involving replacement level players.

Play it again, Sam: Deduno's secret weapon

Phil Hughes is having an All-Star season and were several signs that this would be the case

Phil Hughes so far (8 starts, about a quarter of the season) has been the Minnesota Twins' best pitcher and should definitely have All-Star consideration.   In addition to his old school 4-1, 3.61 ERA, he has 7.6 K/9, 6.7 K/BB, and 1.225 WHIP.  This translates to a 41.6 PE, which is in Ace territory.  Take into consideration that he achieved that with a .326 BABIP (thanks to the Twins' playing catchers, shortstops and designated hitters at the outfield), and his numbers become ever more impressive:  Adjusted WHIP: 1.09, xPE: 46.8, FIP 2.94.  The strikeouts (20.3% K-rate and 7.6 K/9) are especially a welcome departure from the usual for the Twins.



Last season was a horrible season for Hughes, but still his K-rate was high (and has been,  it has 18.9% and 20.3%, last season and the season before last, respectively) and was going deep into games.  This game, against the eventual AL West champions, could have been a mirror image of his last appearance with the Twins:









All in all, Phil Hughes is up to a great start and it should not be all that surprising.  According to this analysis, he was a solid two to three starter last season, and based on this analysis, he was a good, but not a top 3, pitcher for the Twins to target last off-season.

Eduardo Escobar is not a stranger to success

From last winter. The Venezuelan Winter League. Good Spanish practice

Full Game Video: Game 7 of 1965 World Series Los Angeles Dodgers at Minnesota Twins

Great video of the original telecast. Full length. Plus introductory highlights of the earlier games. Great opportunity to see some of the Twins' greats play.

Exclusive: Mystery new player in the Twins' dugout

Might be the fourth shortstop, the next center fielder, or the fifteenth pitcher, but there is a new guy in the Twins' dugout (all the way to the right)

Making sense of the Twins 13 roster moves the last 3 days that involved 10 players

The Minnesota Twins must have broken a non-trading deadline and a non-camp breaking record for most roster moves in three days.   If you lost counting, here they are, chronologically:

Wednesday: Brooks Raley is Designated For Assignment.
Wednesday: Raley is claimed off waivers by the Anaheim Los Angeles Angels
Wednesday: Matt Guerrier is added to the 40-man roster
Wednesday: Logan Darnell is optioned to AAA Rochester Red Wings
Wednesday: Guerrier is added to the 25-man roster
Thursday: Sam Fuld is placed on the 7-day concussion Disabled List
Thursday: Eduardo Nunez is placed on the 25-man roster
Thursday: Pedro Florimon is optioned to AAA Rochester Red Wings
Thursday: Chris Herrmann is optioned to AAA Rochester Red Wings
Friday:  Kenny Wilson is Designated For Assignment.
Friday:  Chris Parmelee is added to the 40-man roster
Friday: Parmelee is added to the 25-man roster
Friday: Aaron Hicks is removed from the  7-day concussion Disabled List

These moves that involved 10 players could quickly become 14, if Kenny Wilson get claimed by another team.

For reference, here is the current 40-man roster.  The Twins still have 14 pitchers and 3 shortstops on their MLB 25-man roster.

Big League Bar Options at Target Field

Target Field is universally known as one of the nicest and most state-of-the-art ballparks in the MLB. One of the reasons for this reputation for the relatively new ballpark is the high prevalence of bar space throughout the concourses. In fact, Target Field has the most square footage of bar space of all MLB stadiums. These bars can be found all over the ballpark, but there are a few in particular that fans should be sure to check out.

Right behind home plate near Section 114 on the Main Level is Hrbek’s Pub, named after Kent Hrbek. Even though there are only stand up tables and no places to sit, the large outdoor patio is the best part of the area with a great view of the game while having a drink at the bar.

Near Section V down the third base line of the Club Level is the Town Ball Tavern. Fans can come here for many options of beer on tap as well as the option to drink alcohol after the 7th inning of the ballgame, something not found in many areas of this ballpark.

On the Terrace Level behind home plate near Sections 317 and 318 is the Two Gingers Pub. There are actually two bars in this area and this is the only bar in the stadium that serves exclusively alcohol and no food. The big draw in this area other than classic Minnesota whiskey is the opportunity to see Sue Nelson, the legendary organ player for the Twins, in action throughout the game.

Looking to buy tickets near one of the exciting bars or want to find other great seats for socializing at a Twins game? RateYourSeats.com helps you find the best seats at Target Field by providing in-seat photos, seat ratings and reviews – all on a super-charged Target Field Seating Chart. Next time you’re looking to buy Twins Tickets, use RateYourSeats.com to get the best seats!

The hottest hitter in the Twins' organization, in the worst jersey

What to expect from the series between the Twins and the Indians.

Next week the Minnesota Twins are starting a four game series at Cleveland against the Indians.   Before the 2014 season started, plenty of writers predicted that these teams will have diametrically opposing seasons, with the Indians fighting the Tigers for the American League Central Division title with about 90 wins, while the Twins would be hovering in the basement of the Division again with about 90 losses.  You can see a sampling of predictions from a major neutral newspaper (the Philadelphia Inquirer) here.   An ESPN expert, Jeff Bennett, even predicted that the Cleveland Indians will win it all in 2014 (Scroll down to the end of the predictions in this link.)    Even long time Twins' bloggers, predicted another slim cows season for the Twins, examples here, and here.   Add the observation that the Twins would have the toughest schedule at the American League, and the expectations were that the Twins and Indians will be in opposing places on the Central Division Standings. 

The reality could have not been much different.  With Sunday's games pending, both teams have won  13 games while the Twins lost 2 less than the Indians (15 vs. 17) and both teams see themselves in the bunch of the Division that includes everyone but the Tigers from 4 to 5.5 games behind the Division leaders.  Regardless what your favorite predictions for the series are, and you can view the latest odds for the Twins and Indians here, this is an important series.  The rest of the games in the AL Central Division are: The Chicago White Sox are playing at the Chicago Cubs, the Kansas City Royals are playing at the San Diego Padres, and the Detroit Tigers are hosting the Houston Astros. Unless the Astros go above and beyond what they have shown this far, the winner of the Twins-Indians series, will simple keep up with the Tigers at that four to five games behind, while the loser will likely fall in the Division basement with a long climb ahead.

Hard to see this as a critical series this early in the season, and for many, what the Twins have done already (based mainly on an unexpected capability to score runs) is a bonus.  The starters are Kyle Gibson vs Zach McAllister in the first game, and Gibson took the win in Cleveland pitching 5 innings allowing an earned run on April 5th when the Twins beat the Indians 7-3.  Samuel Deduno vs Josh Tomlin in Tuesday, with Deduno making his first start this season.  Deduno is 3-2 with a career 4.00 ERA against the Indians, while Tomlin is making his first start in the majors in the last seasons and was just promoted from the AAA Columbus Clippers.  Wednesday sees the Twins number one starter Ricky Nolasco matching up with the Tigers youngster Danny Salazar.  Both Nolasco and Salazar had no decisions in their respective teams' wins in the Cleveland match ups earlier in the season (Nolasco on April 6th when the Twins won 10 to 7, and Salazar on April 4th when the Indians won 7 to 2.)  The series will close with Kevin Correia battling the Indians ace Justin Masterson on Thursday early afternoon.  Masterson had a lackluster appearance against the Twins on April 6th and took the loss (3.7 IP, 6 R) while Correia did not face the Indians this season, but last season in two starts he has a split record of 1-1, while allowing the Indians batters to hit just .214 off him.

All in all, it will be an important and interesting series, and the Twins do have the pitching match ups to get ahead in this one.

MLB players are "outraged" about some of their colleagues being on steroids? Think again.

Just a quick thought that came to me after I saw Nelson Cruz hit a long home run against the Twins tonight. 

After the whole Biogenesis "scandal" situation, a whole bunch of players adamantly were on record saying that they are totally on board with the suspensions and how horrible it is for players to do steroids and cheat and all that jazz.

Put your money where your mouth is then MLB players who do not like your colleagues who do steroids (and cheat another of your colleagues out of a paycheck potentially) : You bean someone who bunts or steals a base in a blow out game, but you pitch to players proven to have used steroids. 
"Unwritten Rules". 

Please.  Let me know how can Nelson Cruz or Jhonny Peralta and company are not being held accountable (i.e. retaliation) for what they are doing, compared to someone who was admiring a long ball he hit at a plate.

Consistency.

And if the MLB players wanted to clear that mess up, they could.  Just write some more unwritten rules...

Video: The Sam Fuld Story

A bit old, from his time with the Rays, but still entertaining.

What did I see from Eduardo Nunez last weekend

As I indicated earlier, in addition to seeing Alex Meyer, one of my goals last weekend when I attended the Red Wings' last 3 games at the Lehigh Valley IronPigs, was to have a good look at the newest Twins' player Eduardo Nunez.  Nunez, once the heir apparent to Derek Jeter and a Yankees top prospect, was traded by those Yankees to the Twins for Miguel Sulbaran (quick scouting report from this Spring Training here.)   Even though I am deeply enshrined as an Eduardo Escobar supporter for the Twins' starting Shortstop job,  any improvement over Pedro Florimon, is more than welcome, so I was extremely intrigued at seeing Nunez on the field and at the plate.

In the three games I saw, Nunez played Shortstop, DH, and Right Field.  There has been a reputation built around Nunez indicating that his defense is poor.  Looking at the various measurements, which are all affected by the smallish sample size, UZR, fangraphs "Defense" and RZR does not like him much, but it also looks like he made 50 plays out of the zone at shortstop in 152 games, so color me intrigued.  Here is what I saw:

In his game as a shortstop he handled several balls and made good accurate throws to first base.  Adjusts well on different batters and is pretty aware.  On a particular grounder he juggled the ball, but still initiated a double play, so that did not hurt.  As a right fielder he took good routes to the ball, had to dig a ball from the corner and did it exceptionally well and made strong throws to the correct cut off man.  On one occasion he tried to barehand a ground ball and he overran it by a foot, but recovered.  All in all he looks like an average fielder to me out there, if a bit eager to make a play.   I am not sure about where the reputation of a bad fielder comes from (maybe from WFAN 660 callers?) but for someone like me who have seen the Twins play Buscher, Nishioka, Harris, Delmon Young, and still play Plouffe and Willingham on the field, I think that Nunez will be an improvement over all of them.

As far as his bat goes, I was really impressed by the quality of his plate appearances.  You can see a video of a plate appearance here.  He is tied for the lead in Home Runs for the Red Wings with 3 and he has not played that much.  His ability to adjust and put the ball in play is excellent.  Something that the Twins can really use in the bottom of their lineup.  In addition to the video example mentioned above,  here is a sequence of photos that shows what I described:

Pitch 1:  Slider low and outside, swing and miss:

Pitch 2: Same pitch. Moves inside a more, times it better and fouls it:

Pitch 3: Same pitch. He gets the fat piece of the bat and turns it in for a double:

I cannot remember how many times I have seen Twins' hitters in the majors failing to do this.

All in all, I think that Eduardo Nunez will be an asset for the Twins and part of the solution in the future.

Video: Eduardo Nunez at Bat , Red Wings at IronPigs 4/13/2014

This is not all I have to say about Eduardo Nunez this weekend, but I decided to put it up since I have it now.   The one thing that Nunez impressed me with (and I have to admit that this video is not the best example over the last 3 games I saw - but his only PA I took a video of) is his ability to adjust to pitches, and to make contact.  This is really important in a team like the Twins that has a lot of strikeout prone players.



Eduardo Nunez Red Wings at IronPigs 4/13/2014 .

Red Wings at IronPigs 3 game Redux: Part I: Alex Meyer.

I had the opportunity to watch the Rochester Red Wings' last 3 games (the double header last night and this afternoon's game) in my back yard against the Lehigh Valley IronPigs over the weekend.  My list of must dos were to see whether Alex Meyer was as good as he was this Spring, in real game situations and to see what Eduardo Nunez was all about.   Happily to say, that I have done that and more and I am ready to share.

Speaking about sharing, on the first leg of the doubleheader last night, the IronPigs wore their new bacon uniforms, so here is a shot of them.

If you look closely, the bacon strip on the hat spells "IronPigs" in a Salvador Dali-like script.

Back to the Twins: Little known fact, but Alex Meyer is doing a variety of resistance exercises on his shoulder for a good 20 minutes before he goes to the pen to warm up.

I guess that loosens the shoulder

 

In this game Meyer showed why he is the Twins' number 3 overall prospect and the Twins' top prospect who is playing the game right now.  His Fastball sat all night between 94 and 96 mph, touching as high as 97 and as low as 92 on occasion, and was a ball that he threw all over the zone.  Inside and out and up and down.  If being a batter trying to catch up to a 97 mph inside FB after swinging at a 94 mph outside FB was not enough, Meyer's best pitch is not his fastball that has a wicked downward motion and it is very hard to lift.  Arguably, his Fastball is his third best pitch.  He is using his FB to set up a knee buckling high 70s curve (his best pitch by far) and a low to mid 80s changeup, with a tailing motion.  These two are his out pitches.  He also has a slurvy slider in mid to upper 80s, which is an average pitch at this point.  So we are talking about a repertoire of 3 plus pitches (with at least the curve being plus plus) and an average and improving pitch.   All a batter can do at this point is to put the bat down in the zone and pray that contact is made and there is a bloop or an error on the other end.  And that was what happened yesterday.   A couple of bloops, a couple of errors by Deibinson Romero and a couple of soft singles down the middle amidst a bunch of broken bats, soft grounders and strikeouts.

Here are pictorials on the velocities that Meyer operates within (Radar readings upper right corner) :

Those were: Fastball, Slider, Change up, Curve, Curve.   And his fastest Fastball clocked at 97, while his slowest curveball at 78.   This is a good 20 mph or so range and he held that range throughout the game.

By far, he has the best stuff in the Twins' organization and definitely top of the rotation potential.

Next: Eduardo Nunez. 

I have mixed feelings about Jason Bartlett making the Twins and it has nothing to do with nostalgia.

The Twins have been busy trying to finalize their 25 man roster, this week, the last of Spring Training, and unless you are lucky enough to vacation to a remote island away from mobile phones and the Internets, you would know by now that there was a waiver wire frenzy that had two Twins without options (Chris  Parmelee and Scott Diamond) passing through waivers unclaimed and assigned to Rochester (with Diamond sleeping on whether he will accept the assignment or not and become a free agent) and a third (Alex Presley of Justin Morneau trade fame) getting claimed by the Astros.  While frantically counting bodies to see who might be the backup Centerfielder in the squad, the Twins' Communications Director, Dustin Morse gave the answer on twitter:

That conclusion was there, just by looking at who remained after the waiver activity, and in addition to Jason Bartlett it seems that Chris Colabello, who had a terrific Spring Training, also made the team.  However, unlike with Bartlett, no official announcements have been made about Colabello (who does have 2 years of minor league options remaining) and since yesterday the Twins have 2 open 40-man roster spots, even if you include Kubel and Bartlett, which they might use to pick someone from the waiver wire and promote to the 25-man roster.

I really have mixed feelings about Bartlett making the team.  I did not like the idea that the Twins gave minor league contracts to both Kubel and Bartlett, mainly because I thought that both of them had their best years well behind and, like when they traded a Hamburger to the Rangers for Yesterday Eddie, the Twins were signing the ghosts of Jasons past.   And Bartlett had a horrible Spring on paper and did not get any better when I was down there and saw him in person.   His appearances on the plate made me think that he would have hard time making contact from a tee and allowed me to make snide in game remarks like this and this. But something changed yesterday.  On one hand I still do not think that he is in shape to help the team with his bat, but it is not the end of the world and he might actually do help the team.  Why is that?

First of all, to make it clear.  It is not because of nostalgia.  If you have been reading this blog for a while, by now you should know that I think that one of the darkest seasons in the Twins' history was the smallball team of 2006, which lost all 3 of its postseason games, despite the facts that it had both the AL MVP and the AL Cy Young and it was the favorite to win it all.  Dark times for the Twins, Gardy's piranhas and all, and Bartlett was part of the problem in my book.

It is not even because I think that Florimon probably will not be ready to begin the season and Bartlett might provide insurance.  I already think that the Twins have a very capable shortstop (other than Florimon) who should be starting and is due for a break through season.  

It is because of this.  I really disliked the vibe I got from the Twins when I was down in Fort Myers, especially as far as effort goes, and I wrote about it in detail, predicting that it will be the downfall of the Twins this season.  But Barlett actually gave it all this Spring.  Inability to make contact or not.  He was fine on the field as well, he was always with a smile on his face, including when he made that catch at Centerfield (I was sitting at the new OF seats right above him practically) and he looked like he had fun playing the game like a kid.  I think that the Twins can use this kind of energy right now, despite the fact that the Bartlett as a major leaguer experiment might be short-lived. 

So, sarcasm aside, I am warming up to the idea...

Twins and Stranded Runners: Cuddyer, Kubel and Plouffe. Who strikes out more with 2 outs and RISP?

Given the troubles the Twins have in stranding I was recently in a discussion regarding who has been the worst rally killer in recent history with the Minnesota Twins as far as striking out with two outs and runners in scoring position.   My recollection, is that it was Micheal Cuddyer; it was suggested that Jason Kubel and Trevor Plouffe were worst that Cuddyer in this metric.   Here are their career statistics as far as Plate Appearances and Strikeouts with Runners In Scoring Position.   Note:  Cuddyer's and Kubel's numbers include their seasons away from the Twins, which help Cuddyer.

Without further ado:

Cuddyer: 770 PA, 183 K, K%: 23.8%
Kubel: 427 PA, 99 K, K%: 23.2%
Plouffe: 161 PA, 38 K, K%: 23.6%

It is a virtual three way tie, as far as career goes.

If you look at their Twins' only numbers you have:

Cuddyer: 651 PA, 156 K, K%: 24.0%
Kubel: 331 PA, 73 K, K%: 22.1%
Plouffe: 161 PA, 38 K, K%: 23.6%

Definitely Cuddyer is the leader in this category, with Plouffe close second and Kubel further removed. 

How about the MLB average?  Here are the MLB Totals in 2013:

2013 MLB total with RISP and 2 outs: 21837 PA, 4536 K, K%: 20.8% 

So all three do strike out more than the imaginary average/composite player in this situation.

Spring Training Redux: How will the Twins do in 2014? Here is my prediction.

Every year I wait to watch the Twins in Spring Training before I form an opinion about how they will do this coming season.   And I like to watch them in person to do this, just trying to see little signs here and little clues there.    A bit before I did that, my arm was twisted to give a number of wins and position of finishing for the Twins this season, and I predicted that the Twins will go 81-81 to finish third in AL Central.  It was a quick prediction based on the improvement of the pitching staff this off-season.  Even Mike Pelfrey, recently said (reference to be added soon) that the Twins will finish at least .500 next season.

This might be good on paper, but I really got a bad feeling last week.  And it does not have to do with the front office completely ignoring the offensive and position player side of the ball this off-season (the only moves practically being substituting Kurt Suzuki for Ryan Doumit and Jason Kubel for Justin Morneau.)  It does not even have to do with the recent (and much celebrated and discussed) comments of acting GM Rob Antony, suggesting that nobody who is competing for a spot is actually doing anything to win a job.   On paper, and being optimistic, I thought that Willingham and Plouffe will rebound, Hicks will reach his potential, Arcia will be the power hitter we all expect to be, Pinto will solidify the catcher position, Mauer will improve with his knees not having the catching stress and that Escobar will have a break-through season as a shortstop akin to Brian Dozier's 2013 who would not regress.   It might still as well happen.  And then the Twins will win at least 81 games.  And I hope it happens.

But I got a really bad feeling last week.   And it was there precipitated and displayed in front of the eyes of the 100 of us who remained late Tuesday night to see the last pitch at that Twins' night game hosting the Rays.  And it had not much to do with Vance Worley's right arm and the batting practice projectiles he was throwing, but by the lackadaisical play and non-effort by the position players the whole spring.  And not only the ones who are fighting for a job per Rob Antony.  And not only at that game, but this was the epitome.

On the flights to Fort Myers and back I have been reading Cool Of The Evening: The 1965 Minnesota Twins by Jim Theilman (an excellent book and highly recommended, btw.)  Thielman mentions that one of the turning points of the 1965 magical Twins' season came at the middle of Spring Training in Orlando's Tinker Field:  At the middle of a game, because of lack of effort, Sam Mele, the Twins' manager, took Zoilo Versalles (the eventual 1965 MVP) out of the lineup, benched him for a while and fined him $300, an amount very high for the time.  This gave the message that it is expected for even the best players to give 100% even during Spring Training and set the tone for the rest of the season.

How many times the last 3 seasons have you seen plenty of Twins' players not giving it all?  And with what consequences?   And it is continuing this Spring and I do not think that the Twins will go anywhere unless they go back to full effort (Mele's season, piranhas' season or whatever, take your peak.)   Examples (from that game) :

• Josh Willingham hits a scorcher past third base to left that bounced just over the bag, half a foot fair and rolled all the way to the corner.  As the ball was hit, I was thinking triple all the way.  Mr Willingham jogged around the bases and managed to get himself thrown out at second by a few feet.  It ended up being recorded as a single with the hitter thrown out at second trying to stretch it into a double. On the field It was much more.
• Vancy Worley was hit hard. Very hard.  And at about four times, if Trevor Plouffe was guarding the line on inside fastballs, he would have made outs out of those 4 hits.  I do understand it if it happens once.  Then you adjust.  And the Twins have a special infield coach who should supposedly help these days too. On paper it was four hits (a couple doubles as well.)   On the field it was much more. 
• Alex Presley gets on base.   Gets a good jump trying to steal second.  He is there before the throw.  He over-slides the base.  He is tagged out.  For the third time.  On the paper it was recorded as an CS.  On the field it was much more.
• Later in the game there is fly ball to the short left field.   LF Wilkin Ramirez goes in, SS Eduardo Escobar goes out to catch the ball.  Ramirez yells "I got it".  Escobar stops 7-8 feet away.  The ball drops in front of Ramirez.  On paper it was an error.  On the field it was much more.

It is the little things.  And they are not little. They are big cumulatively. And it is accountability for not doing things right.  Did Willingham and Presley have extra base running practice the next day?  Plouffe and Ramirez fielding practice?  Did anyone of them get pulled out of the game (they cannot be fined, the CBA took care of that)?  We all know the answer.  And if the Twins do not start holding everyone from the players, to the manager, to the coaches to the front office accountable for what is happening on the field, not much will change.  Rotation improvements or not.

My prediction: I hate to say it, but 70-92 and 5th place.   But I do hope that this time someone is held accountable for this...