Can the 2013 Twins Compete? You Betcha!

I think that it is pretty safe to say that nobody expects the Minnesota Twins to be close to contending in 2013.  As a matter of fact, a lot of fans and experts would find the new Accuscore predictions that were released today and show the 2013 Twins with a predicted record of 72-90, optimistic.

I usually do not try to predict the way the Twins will finish with an analysis.  The last time I did it was in the aftermath of the Santana trade and before the 2008 season, when the sky was supposedly falling (you can find that analysis in parts:  Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3.)  My quite unorthodox calculations predicted the team to have an 89-73 record, while everyone was predicting a sub .500 record.   That season, as in this season, the major breaking point is Starting Pitching. 

When I was asked before Spring Training by Cardinal70.com in their playing pepper series, my prediction (gut feeling) was that the Twins will compile an 86-76 record and will be competitive in 2013.   Additionally, I recently noted the good energy that I saw this team have in Fort Myers, which makes me optimistic for 2013.  Add to this, this excellent analysis by Phil Macky at ESPN 1500 based on individual projected performances that project the Twins to win 80 games in 2013, and it was about time to look at the possibilities formally.

I looked at it in 2 different ways and this post is part one, looking at the possibilities of the new starting rotation.  The second way will be a WAR- and RAR-based analysis that will be presented some time this weekend or so, otherwise this post will be a monster.

This analysis is pretty unorthodox but pretty close to what I did before the 2008 season.  I am looking at the differences of the Twins' rotation in 2013 vs the Twins' rotation in 2012 (Starting pitching is the driver of the Twins' performance folks... They led the AL Central in position player WAR by a lot, 25% ahead of the second team, in 2012.)

I am looking at the following two measures for each starting pitcher in 2012: 

• Bill James' Game Score (which is what I used to tabulate my Spring Training Dashboards, and use the same convensions for above average, below average and average as there; explanation is here)
• Earned runs a pitcher allowed in each game
• Then I tabulate the number games that each pitcher had game scores better than, worse than or average; and the number of games that each pitcher allowed 2 runs or less, 3 to 4 runs and 5 runs or more.  (Note:  The Twins scored about 4.3 runs a game, so =< 2 runs is high probability or win and 3-4 runs good probability for a win.)
• The 2012 Twins' starters used for the calculations are Pavano, Blackburn, Liriano and Marquis
• For the 2013 Twins' startes I used the 2012 numbers for Correia and Worley and the 2011 for Pelfrey and Harden 
• I assume that the rest of the rotation in 2013 (Diamond, De Vries, Deduno etc) will perform as in 2012.

Here are the results by pitcher:

It is obvious that the 2013 rotation had many better games in 2012 and would have kept the Twins competitive in most of their games (4 runs or less) than the 2012 rotation.  But how much?

• The 2013 rotation had above average game scores 48.3% of the time vs 23% for the 2012 rotation
• The 2013 rotation allowed less than 2 runs in 42.7% of games vs 26% for the 2012 rotation
• The 2013 rotation allowed less than 2 runs in 82.2% of games vs 61.2% for the 2012 rotation

What does this mean in wins for the 2013 Twins?

• In 2012 the Twins starting pitchers won 41 and lost 72 games 
• Extrapolating based on above average game scores the 2013 rotation will win an additional 23 games for a total of 89 wins
• based on less than 2 runs allowed 2013 rotation will win an additional 26 games for a total of 92 wins
• based on less than 4 runs allowed 2013 rotation will win an additional 15 games for a total of 81 wins
• These 3 average to 87 wins, giving the 2013 Twins a projected 87-79 record.

So here you have it.  These Twins can compete in 2013.

Next: WAR and RAR-based analysis

Random Spring Training Thoughts: 3/26/2013

I arrived North a tad too late from Fort Myers last night, so I did not quite had time to compile my last Spring Training report, so here it goes:

• Mainly a drills day over at the Minor League fields yesterday with no games or scrimmages schedules.   Interesting to see Ray Olmedo, who was cut earlier in the morning participate in drills with the position players who will likely stay at Fort Myers for extended spring training and get assigned to the Rookie leagues.   Most of them are young Latin American players and I suspect that Ray was helping with the translation.
• Back at Hammond Stadium Mike Pelfrey pitched a very good game (the only earned run should had been unearned because Morneau should have been charged with an error when misplayed what would have been the third out of the inning.)   When I look at the return of someone from injury I look at 2 things:  Velocity of fastball and command of the breaking ball.  And Pelfrey had them both.  His fastball hit 94 mph (at Hammond so subtract a couple) and he had excellent command of his high 70s curve.  He changed speeds effectively, mixed and matched pitches well and provided a good glimpse of why he was considered a top of the rotation prospect for a long time.  Good to see him back and I am certain that he will help the Twins this season.
• The only roster battle left is one for two pen spots among three relievers (who may all make it if Liam Hendriks' injured hand proves to be worse than it seems) who severely underperformed and underwhelmed this spring training and all have 40 man roster spots:  Alex Burnett, Casey Fien and Trevor Robertson.  Robertson (who admittedly has been unlucky this Spring because the ball seemed to bounce the wrong way every time he pitched) had a very sub-par outing yesterday.   The main problems were that his fastball velocity was 85-88, with the fast Hammond Stadium radar, that made it flat and hittable and he could not command his breaking ball.  As I mentioned above regarding Pelfrey, those 2 things are red flags for me as far as potential injury is concerned.   On the other hand, Robertson yesterday said the he felt alright.  We shall see.   Regardless, with Anthony Swarzak and Tim Wood returning from injuries in a couple weeks, the two relievers who will make the squad will be under the microscope.
• Ecstatic to see Wilkin Ramirez making the club.  He has been the most consistent Twins' player with the bat this Spring and his defense was occasionally impressive (including a diving catch today against Baltimore.)  He will provide a RH bat with some pop off the bench and potentially a platoon partner for Chris Parmelee at RF.  Ramirez is not on the 40-man roster so a transaction needs to take place to open a spot for him.   This could be a trade involving Drew Butera, Jamey Carroll (who is practically unnecessary now with the emergence of Eduardo Escobar) or the removal from the 40-man roster of the reliever who loses the battle for the last pen spot or Caleb Thielbar or BJ Hermsen.
• One very hopeful observation for the coming season (and I actually asked others who agreed with me so it is not just me) :  The overall energy of the team this Spring seems to be much better that it was last Spring.  The mood seems to be much lighter.  Players were pretty loose around the batting cages when waiting for others to bat or when were catching the ball at the OF during batting practice, or at the dugout.  Even Gardenhire who last Spring was fairly grouchy was cracking jokes and was engaged in conversations with fans.  This makes me very hopeful for this set of Twins as far as this season goes.   Just a feeling I cannot describe, but it is pretty much there.
• Four games are left now, including the last 3 with the Red Sox in Fort Myers.   Byron Buxton's guest star appearance will be the talk of the day tomorrow, while the next order of business will be the appointing of the opening day starter.  As far as I am concerned I think that it will be either Vance Worley or Kevin Correia depending on their next appearance (or Worley's next appearance) so we will know the earliest tomorrow.
• Another Spring comes to the end and another season is coming to be.  Let's hope it is better than the last one and the Twins sweep Detroit in the first series to make a strong statement as far as the division is concerned. 

Random Spring Training Thoughts from Fort Myers: 3/24/2013

Today the Twins beat the Toronto Blue Jays 14-5 at Hammond Stadium with about a week remaining at Spring Training; meanwhile there were AAA vs AA and A+ vs A scrimmages at fields number 2 and 3 on the minor league side.  Here are my thoughts and observations of the day

• A  lot of great performances today, including Joe Mauer's 6 RBI day that included a HR at dead center and Aaron Hick's 4 for 4 day, but the performance of the day happened at field number three and was witnessed by about 50 people, including Twins' General Manager Terry Ryan.  During the high A vs. A matchup that included stars in the making like Miguel Sano, Byron Braxton, Travis Harrison, Jorge Polanco, Kennys Vargas etc, a little known 10th round draft pick stole the show.  DJ Baxendale, who was the Twins' 10th round pick from the University of Arkansas last summer and has been stretched to be a starter this season retired all 9 A players he faced, striking out 8.  Only second baseman Aderlin Mejia was retired on a 3-1 ground out.  Not a small feat, because the Cedar Rapids' lineup started with Buxton, Polanco and Harrison.  Baxendale's stuff was absolutely filthy and his control was perfect (he had only one called ball the whole game).  Two seam sinker with a lot of motion, a sharp breaking ball and a change up that had a life of its own.   I will be very surprised if he does not move fast in the organization.   This was one of the single most dominating pitching performances I have ever seen at any level of play.  It was as if a major leaguer was pitching against Rookie league kids.  Definitely someone to follow this season in Fort Myers (even though I suspect that he might end the season in New Britain.)
• Speaking of, this Fort Myers squad will score some runs and will be a serious contender in the Florida State League.   Sandwiched between Miguel Sano and Kennys Vargas, at the clean up spot today was Mike Gonzales, the Twins' 9th Round pick in 2008.  For the ones not familiar with Gonzales, he has had his up and downs (mostly downs) mainly resulting from lack of discipline and hard time controlling his weight.  Last season he played with the Miracle and was mediocre.   This would be his make or break season and looks like he will repeat the high A tour to start the season.   The 25 year old is in probably the best shape of his career and actually is dwarfing Vargas, if that is possible.   I expect a break through season from Gonzales this year.
• Alex Meyer pitched for the AA team against the AAA and the little I got to see him (the A vs high A matchup was the center piece of the day) he looked pretty good with a great fastball and impressive command.   Luke Bard who pitched for the Cedar Rapids team also pitched pretty well, but he was eclipsed by Baxendale.
• At the Stadium it was an overcast and very windy day and lots of home runs resulted.  PJ Walters got the node for the Twins and he just did not have it today.  Plus he ran out of gas pretty quickly.  I don't think that the threw anything harder than 80 mph in his last inning.   His fastball was clocked at 88-91 in the first innings and this was about 2-3 mph less in actuality because of the Fort Myers radar.    He is not ready to start the season in the majors at least as a starter.  Just not there yet.  
• Brian Duensing was solid other than the home runs and Jared Burton was impressive.   I am not sure that Josh Roenicke will make the team;  I feel that it is a battle of 2 spots between him, Tim Wood and Jim Pressly and the other two have been better, even though Roenicke had a good appearance today.  Since he can pitch multiple innings, maybe will slide in the Swarzak role while he is on the DL.  His fastball touched 94 mph and his breaking ball was effective today.
• I have the feeling that Pedro Florimon and Brian Dozier are pretty much enshrined as the starting middle infielders and from now until the opening day it is a matter of them to get to know each other.  Second day in a row that started in their respective positions.
• Chris Parmelee had another lackadaisical performance.  I don't know if he feels that there is no way that he will not make the team, but the level of effort is just not what it should be at this point.  Hasty plate appearances and swinging at bad pitches is not the way to make people feel that you deserve a position among the best 13 position players of the Twins.
• More cuts will be coming soon and I think that Ray Olmedo, Brandon Boggs, Jeff Clement, Dan Rohlfing, PJ Walters, Tyler Robertson and maybe one of Casey Fien and Alex Burnett will be it.   One week until opening day and the slate should clear pretty quickly.

Random Spring Training Thoughts from Fort Myers: 3/23/2013

Actually I spent the day at Port Charlotte, watching the Twins beat the Rays;  thus, no minor league report today other that the 5 guys (Jason Christian, Nate Hanson, Chris Colabello, Bruce Pugh and Dan Turpen - of Kevin Slowey trade fame) who made the half an hour trip up North to fill in as needed.   Here are my thoughts and observations from today:

• I did not see it, but Scoot Diamond pitched for the AAA Twins' team against the Red Sox' AAA team down at Fort Myers and his line was: 3 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 2 K.  Not too encouraging. 
• A couple notes about the Charlotte Sports Park (the home of the FSL Charlotte Stone Crabs and the Spring Training home of the Rays.)  I think that the most parks I visit, the more and more I appreciate Hammond Stadium and the whole complex as a Spring Training venue.  Here is one example: The minor league fields in Port Charlotte have an entrance with a door and a guard behind it and they were locked.  Also, unlike Hammond stadium, there are cloth barriers on the chain link fences, which make following the action pretty awful.   One of the gems of Charlotte Sports Park (and a peak into Hammond Stadium 2014) is the wrap around deck from short left to short right field.  A great place to watch the game, esp. sitting on the tables by the Twins' bullpen at Right Center Field.  Really looking forward to Hammond Stadium having one of those next Spring Training.
• I came down here for Spring Training with an open mind about Kevin Correia (yes, I know...) and I think that I know what the Twins saw in him.  When he hits the lower third of the strike zone he is actually a good pitcher; when he doesn't, he is bad.  Today he pitched against what was very close to the Rays' opening day lineup and did alright.  His fastball was at 89-91 (the radar there is probably alright, since Price was at 92-95, which is pretty true) and was good at the lower third, but flat and hittable at anything above that.  Change and breaking ball were both effective.  He pitched much better than Worley did yesterday.  I can start warming up to the idea that he will be serviceable for the Twins, but he will be walking a fine line if he needs to have pinpoint control to be serviceable (and he does need that.)   On another note, Correia is too slow and deliberate.  Not exactly a human rain delay, but pretty close...
• The Twins' four relievers (Tim Wood, Glen Perkins, Alex Burnett and Casey Fien) did a fine job.   Wood is an interesting character and reminds me a bit of Jim Hoey physique-wise.  He has a bit deception on his movement and short-arms the ball.  He hit 94 with his fastball (Perkins did too) and he got swings and misses with his breaking ball.  Very energetic guy and one of the few players who still uses chewing tobacco.  Interesting to see whether he makes the team and how he will fit in.
• Alex Burnett needed this very badly.  This was his only above average appearance in Spring Training (and it came in his seventh outing.)  Every thing was working for him, including his fastball that went up to 92.  A very good sign, but I am not sure at this point whether it is too late for him to make the team.
• Dan Rohlfing and Wilkin Ramirez continued their great appearances this Spring.  Rohlfing started at first base and moved to left field later in the game.  I think that his versatility eventually will be valuable to the Twins, but he has to build up on what he achieved this Spring Training and translate it into a good season with the bat at AA.  As far as I am concerned, Dan Rohlfing is THE story for the Twins this Spring Training because he pretty much came from nowhere.  Nowhere as a career .249/.296/.313 in parts of 2 seasons in AA.  Now he has to take the leap.
• At this point and with Darin Mastroianni having a fairly anemic day at the plate plus misplaying a fly ball, I wonder whether Wilkin Ramirez is actually battling Mastroianni for the 4th OF position and not only Drew Butera and Jeff Clement for the last spot on the 25-man roster.  He has been really good this Spring, he is a good defender at the corner OF spots, has some pop, has some speed, and has played some Centerfield (albeit last time in 2011.)
• I think that all three starting infielders today (Brian Dozier, Pedro Florimon and Eduardo Escobar) make the team, with Dozier and Florimon the starters at second and short.  What you look in a double play combination is chemistry and these two seem to have it.  I just hope that the Twins decide that this is the case and have them play the rest of Spring Training together so they click even better.  As far as I am concerned, a cohesive middle infield is key to good defense and I hope that the Twins decide in one and let it be without taking guys in an out like they did the last few years.  That would be a recipe for defensive disaster.
• Tomorrow the Twins are playing the Blue Jays in Hammond Stadium and will be interesting to see what a lot of people think is the team to beat in the American League in 2013.

Random Spring Training Thoughts from Fort Myers: 3/22/2013

I am officially at Fort Myers, where I will be through Monday, attending Twins' games and checking on the minor leaguers.    Unlike last season, when I pretty much presented a photo diary with 20+ images a day and some commentary, this season I will be doing something different:  I will be presenting some of my observations and thoughts during the day on both major and minor leaguers, as well as  other Spring Training-related items.   Of course, I will add a few pictures on each post.  I will probably make a couple of picture posts after next week, maybe as a Spring Training retrospect of sorts (since I am taking a ton of pictures this season.)

Today the Twins hosted the Yankees at Hammond Stadium and the AAA team hosted the Red Sox' AAA team on field number 1.   Here are my daily thoughts and observations:

• Happy to be part of the biggest home Spring Training crowd ever for the Twins: a record 8366 people attended the game at Hammond Stadium and it showed it.  Standing room only and even that was sold out before the game.
• Speaking of Hammond Stadium, some pretty interesting additions to the ballpark menu include deep fried cheese curds and calamari fingers (both of them at the "party deck" area at short right field.)
• For what is worth: Alex Meyer, Evan Bigley and Oswaldo Arcia were practicing with the Rochester group this morning.
• Speaking of Rochester,  I was not really impressed with 3 of the pitching newcomers: Elarton, Lane and Vasquez.
• Got to see Miguel Sano take fielding drills with the New Britain squad.  BJ Hermsen was in that group as well, as were Josmil Pinto and Matt Koch.  Pinto is not a surprise to start at AA, but if Koch stays there. it will be a pretty big surprise.  Likely he is filling for Dan Rohlfing who is with the big boys still.
• Over at the A and lower field, there were major pitching drills going on.  Kennys Vargas was on the field at first during those drills, and I would swear that he looks even bigger this season.
• Speaking of pitching drills, back at the big league camp, there was a pretty large one going on this morning.  Good to see that Rich Harden was actually participating, but was the only pitcher who did not throw the ball.  Both Scott Diamond and Anthony Swarzak did throw the ball, btw.
• Speaking of Swarzak, he later pitched batting practice to the infielders who were not playing today and he shattered Brian Dozier's bat to about 6 pieces (one of which went towards Swarzak and another popped in the back of the cage; nevertheless it was a large commotion)  Pretty good to see Swarzak back; he could be ready be the beginning of the season, but the Twins will put him on the DL.
• Speaking of bats, Dan Rohlfing, it his plate appearance before his home run, sent his flying into the crowd about 6 rows over the Twins' dugout.  Large commotion but no injury and a nice souvenir.  Dan Rohlfing keeps being the surprise of the Spring as far as I am concerned, because there was a guy from whom nobody expected anything at the beginning of ST and now he is on the Twins' catching prospects map.
• Thoughts about individual performances today:
• The good:  Trevor Plouffe was great at the field in several chances and he had solid plate appearances.  Good to see him back from his injury.  Wilkin Ramirez, who went 3-3 and was hit by a pitch, will make the back up outfielder/last spot on the bench race really interesting.  Solid on the plate against major leaguers.  I really liked Ryan Pressly.  He has an effortless delivery and can dial it up.  At this point, I will be surprised if he does not make the team.
• The bad: Vance Worley was all over the place today.  I had a chance to watch him pitch both with the Phillies and with their AAA affiliate (IronPigs, which happens to be about 10 miles away from where I life) and he is not the same guy.  Not sure what's up, but it is worrisome at this point.  He had a bit of success lately when he tried to mix his offerings up, but the first few innings his two seamer was very flat.   He probably lost a few ticks as well, since the Hammond Stadium gun had him at 88-91 (got to subtract 2-3 for that gone.)  2 weeks left, he really needs to pick it up.  Ray Olmedo was fairly shaky on the field.  Bad jumps, miss-judgements and the such.  I thought that he had an outside chance at a utility role, but I just do not see it now.  Darin Mastroianni was not at his best either.  He let a couple balls drop right in front of him for singles during Tyler Robertson's breakdown, which brings us to
• The ugly: Robertson was miss-matched at this game.  The ball was coming off his hand flat when he was throwing the sinker that topped at 88 (with that gun) and the Yankees' AAA squad hit it like it.  His breaking ball was good, but if the fastball is not there, he will not survive.  I will be surprised if he is not one of the next cuts.
• Several scouts at the game (look at the following picture) and not sure who they were scouting.  Among them the Twins' First Scout who watched the game with a stopwatch on his left hand and a scouting book the size of Gutenberg's Bible on his lap.
• Tomorrow I will be at Port Charlotte watching the Twins visit the Rays' home park.  First time at that ballpark for me and I look forward to it.

2013 Twins Spring Training Battle Dashboard 3.0: The final stretch edition

It is already almost a month into Spring Training games for the Twins, and it is time for the second version of the dashboards.   You can find all 2013 Spring Training dashboards here, for reference.
 
Again, you can find explanations of the measures and the colors of the dashboards to quantify Spring Training performance of the combatants in both the position player and pitching battles in these two links.   
 
The dashboard includes today's game against the Pirates.

I indicate the players who were cut in italics and the day they were cut by the MiLB indication.  This is the last time these dashboards will have dates, because they are getting too long.  Next edition will have them compressed and only the active combatants will be listed.  In addition, WBC game results are included for the relevent players (Beresford, Butera, Colabello, Deduno)

This is it.  The final 2.5 week of Spring Training where competition gets better and battles get fiercer.  I will be in Florida and Fort Myers for the largest part of the next two weeks, so expect some exclusive coverage on the Twins major and minor leaguers from the Spring Training site.
Here is the position player dashboard:

Few Observations:

• Aaron Hicks has won the CF starting job; whether the Twins' brass let him have it, is it still up for grabs
• Aaron Hicks has taken the lead for the Center Field starter position
• The other 2 OF positions (RF and bench) are still wide open, with Darin Mastroianni returning strong from his hamstring injury and Wilkin Ramirez performing consistently well and steadily leading Chris Parmelee who improved a bit but still trailing. 
• The infield battle and the bench battles are wide open.  Butera, Colabello and Olmedo have been sightly better than the rest and all three would be potentially battling for that last roster spot.

Here is the pitcher dashboard:

Few Observations:

• Cole DeVries , Samuel Dedouno, PJ. Walters and Pedro Hernandez are all making a case for the one or two starting positions open, while Liam Hendriks is trailing pretty badly.  Of these pitchers, the ones who do not make the rotation, still will have a chance for a long reliever position.
• Alex Burnett has not had a single good appearance this spring and I just cannot see how he can make the team if he does not change this pretty quickly.
• Tyler Robertson have turned it around this week with several good appearances and after the cuts is the only lefty reliever left (other than the locks Duensing and Perkins)
• Ryan Pressly and  Tim Wood (other than a single horrible game) have been good and I  think they have one foot in the opening day roster.
• Josh Roenicke, Luis Perdomo and Casey Fien had ups and downs,and all are probably fighting for the last bullpen spot. 

2013 Twins Spring Training Battle Dashboard 2.0, pre first cuts edition

It is already two weeks into Spring Training games for the Twins, so it is time for the second version of the dashboards.   You can find all 2013 Spring Training dashboards here, for reference.

Again, you can find explanations of the measures and the colors of the dashboards to quantify Spring Training performance of the combatants in both the position player and pitching battles in these two links.   

The dashboard includes last night's game.

Here is the position player dashboard:

Few Observations:

• Aaron Hicks and Eddie Rosario have been given many accolades, but for me the surprise of Spring Training for the Twins so far has been Danny Rohlfing, the Twins' 23 year old AA catcher who for all practical purposes has been regarded as organizational depth.  However, with his performance in front of the Twins' brass, added to his excellent defense at catcher and versatility (can play 1B and OF as well), he has to be into the conversation regarding Twins' Catcher prospects
• Aaron Hicks has taken the lead for the Center Field starter position
• The other 2 OF positions (RF and bench) are wide open, with Darin Mastroianni returning today from a hamstring injury-caused week's hiatus and Wilkin Ramirez performing consistently well and steadily leading Chris Parmelee who really has not found himself and is also ailing.   I would not be surprised if Parmelee started the season in AAA.
• The infield battle and the bench battles are wide open.  None of the infielders fighting for the 2 positions has been ahead of the pack at this time.

Here is the pitcher dashboard:

Few Observations:

• He is starting today again, but Cole DeVries has been pretty consistent and effective as a starter so far,  and I think that he is on his way to earn either a starter or the long reliever position, depending on other pitcher's health
• Speaking of health, despite what it has been reported, I will be surprised if Anthony Swarzak, Rafael Perez and Scott Diamond start the season in Minnesota on April fools'
• PJ Walters' performance has been pretty steady as well, but unlike DeVries, he has been used as a reliever and been facing lesser competition.  He still has possibilities for a pen or even a starting role, based on health
• Kyle Gibson has had ups and one horrible game.  The jury is still out.
• Alex Burnett and Tyler Robertson have been as disappointing on the pitching side as Chris Parmelee on the position player side.  I would not be surprised if they started the season in AAA.
• Ryan Pressly, the Twins' Rule 5 pick has been the most consistent reliever; other than a horrid game, Tim Wood has been great; Mike Tonkin has been surprising good and Josh Roenicke had ups and downs, but he has been trending up.  Could these four pitchers win the four bullpen spots?  Time will tell, but it will be a huge surprise if Tonkin does, since the highest level of play he saw has been a half season at Fort Myers with the Miracle.

The next version will be after the cuts.  Speaking of the cuts, I think that:  Bryan Augenstein, BJ Hermsen, Trevor May and Alex Meyer from the pitchers and Kyle Knudson and maybe James Beresford might be it for position players.   The World Baseball Classic has decimated the numbers of the Twins position players available,make it hard to field 2 teams in split squad games, so I do not foresee many position player cuts before other Twins return from the WBC.

Twins pitching for the Minnesota Twins? Kevin Correia and Tim Wood

Because most Minnesota Twins' fans have not seen what these guys look like, let me know if you can tell them apart.

Here is one:

 

And here is the other:

Who is who?  (don't cheat and look up numbers....)

 

2013 Twins Spring Training Battle Dashboard: Version 1

With the Twins' Spring Training about half a month old and eight official games in the books, it is about time that I start posting these dashboards again keeping track of how the players who are batting for positions are doing.   It might seem that Spring Training has been going on for a while, and it has because of the World Baseball Classic.  For comparison, last year the first Twins' game of Spring Training was March 3rd.   

I have previously outlined the potential battles for position players as:

• 3 outfield positions, including a back up
• 2 infield positions, including a back up 
• 1 additional bench bat that would be a third Catcher (Mr Butera for example) or a bat off the bench/DH (like Chris Colabello) or an additional infielder or outfielder.

Also indicated that I consider the following players as locks (so I am not tracking them) :

Jamey Carroll
Ryan Doumit
Joe Mauer
Justin Morneau
Trevor Plouffe and
Josh Willingham

and in the same piece, I indicated that the battles for pitchers were for one to three starting positions (depending on Scott Diamond's and Mike Pelfrey's health) and at least four bullpen spots; I consider as locks here (thus not tracked), in addition to the 2 aforementioned if healthy:

Kevin Correia
Vance Worley

Jared Burton
Brian Duensing
Glen Perkins

The ideas behind the mechanics of the dashboards to quantify Spring Training performance of the combatants in both the position player and pitching battles is explained in these two links.

For the pitchers, I quantify using  a measurement created by Bill James more than a decade ago called "Game Score".  It is calculated as follows:

You start with 50 points for each pitcher.
Add 1 point for each out.
Add 1 point for each strikeout.
Subtract 2 points for each hit.
Subtract 4 points for each earned run.
Subtract 2 points for each unearned run.
Subtract 1 point for each walk.
There is a point bonus for pitching more than 4 innings as well, adding 2 points for each IP after the 4th, but this is not too applicable here.

Game Scored of 49-51 are "average" (yellow),
everything higher than 51 "above average" (green),
and everything below 49 "below average" (red).

The pitchers are broken down as "starters" and "relievers" but it is understandable that starters are candidates to make the teams as relievers.

For position players, I devised a similar metric that goes like this:

Start with 0 points (unlike the pitching Game Score that starts with 50)
Add 1 point for each Run, RBI, 2B, SB, BB, and HBP recorded.
Add 2.5 for each hit, 3 for each 3B and 4 for each HR.
Subtract 1 for each CS and GIDP,
subtract 1 for each error,
for catchers add 1 for each CS
Subtract 0.2 for each SO and 0.5 for each AB.

Again, as in the Pitching Battle Dashboard, the Position Player Battle Dashboard is color-coded based on average, above average and below average performances, where:

Average is Batting Game Score between 0 and 2
Above average is Batting Game Score higher than 2
Below average is Batting Game Score less than 0

Without further ado (and no comments)  here is the Dashboard for the Twins' position players:

and here for the pitchers:

There is still many games to be played and these will be changing in pretty much daily basis.   I will publish the next installment in few days.

Can this be the Twins' opening day starter?

Based on being the Spring Training opening day starter? See him answer this question for himself below:

Tracking the 2013 Twins' Spring Training Roster Battles

A Light exists in Spring
Not present on the Year
At any other period —
When March is scarcely here

-Emily Dickinson

Spring Training time is one of my favorite baseball times during the season (or is it "off-season", or "pre-season"?)This is the time where all the teams have the same record and all 60 players or so who are invited in the Major League camp hope that they will be part of the major league roster. Some positions in the Twins' 25-man roster are chiseled in marble; however some are written in pensil, and some others are wide open for the taking. Last season, I used dashboards to quantify Spring Training performance of the combatants in both the position player and pitching battles. I am planning on doing the same this Spring training, but before starting quantifying, I'd like to qualify and see what potential battles there might this Spring.

Position Players (13)

The following six players (barring injuries and late trades) are locks to stay in the Twins' 25-man roster (all lists alphabetically) :

Jamey Carroll
Ryan Doumit
Joe Mauer
Justin Morneau
Trevor Plouffe and
Josh Willingham.

Drew Butera
Darin Mastroianni and
Chris Parmelee

are penciled in and only a horrible appearance might derail them coming up North, but they are not 100% locks (they are in the 80% range)so I will keep track of their performance.

The potential battles in the Twins' 2013 Spring Training as far as position players go are for the following seven positions:

3 outfield positions, including a back up
2 infield positions, including a back up
and one additional bench bat that would be a third Catcher (Mr Butera for example) or a bat off the bench/DH (like Chris Colabello) or an additional infielder or outfielder.

Pitchers (12)

I do assume that the Twins will take 13 position players and 12 pitchers; however, potentially they will forgo the bench bat or the third catcher and go with 13 pitchers. Time will tell.

The following two starters and three relievers are pretty much locks:

Kevin Correia
Vance Worley

Jared Burton
Brian Duensing
Glen Perkins

The following two starters are locks, other than the fact that might not be ready:

Scott Diamond
Mike Pelfrey

So there are battles from one to three starting positions and at least four bullpen spots.

Potentially up to seven position player and seven pitcher spots on the 2013 Opening Day Twins 25-man roster will be decided this Spring, which is more than in the recent seasons, at least on paper... Interesting times indeed and sure to make this Spring more fun to watch closely.

The Minnesota Twins: "This year we got something to prove"

Remembering the last Twins' winning team...

Summary of the Twins' Off-Season... in Latin

With all players reporting to the Twins' Spring Training camp tomorrow, it is about time to discuss my feelings about the Twins' off-season.  I do understand that there has been a lot of discussion on it, with pros and cons mentioned and moves analyzed and criticized;  however, nothing has been written in Latin.

So there is my summary of the Twins' off-season, in Latin:

Post annus horribilis, ad meliora a falsis principiis proficisci, a bene placito arduus ad solem, ab absurdo emi emeritus aetat astra per alas porci ad hominem ad valorem. Aut vincere aut mori; ave atque vale.

Actus me invito factus non est meus actus; acta est fabula plaudite; alea iacta est. Amicus Terry, sed magis amica veritas. Asinus asinum fricat, caetera desunt.
 
Ave Imperator, morituri te salutant. Illegitimi non carborundum. Carpe vinum. Cras es Noster. Faber est suae quisque fortunae.

Twins announce the 2013 promotions (and they are good)

The Minnesota Twins have announced the 2013 promotional give aways, and the quality and quantity seems to have increased.  Maybe they hope to get people in the ballpark this way.  Here is the list:

April 1, 3 and 4:  Twins magnet schedule presented by Country Hearth
April 12, 13 and 14: Twins poster schedule presented by the Star Tribune
April 15:  Diversity Day T-shirt presented by the Prairie Island Indian Community
April 16 and 17:  Twins drawstring bag presented by MLB Network
April 22:  Twins rain gauge presented by Pentair
April 25:  Glen Perkins fishing lure presented by 96.3 K-TWIN
April 27:  Twins cowboy hat presented by WE Fest
April 28:  Josh Willingham Silver Slugger bat presented by Sports Authority
May 10:  Josh Willing“hammer” bobblehead presented by U.S. Bank
May 11:  Twins cap presented by DQ
May 12:  Women's sun hat presented by Pepsi
May 14:  Twins fleece blanket presented by Delta Air Lines
May 18:  LED energy efficient light bulb presented by Xcel Energy
May 30: 1948 St. Paul Saints pennant
June 2:  Josh Willingham kid’s jersey presented by U.S. Bank
June 14:  Eddie Guardado and Tom Mee HOF collector’s pins presented by Fisher Nuts
June 16: Twins BBQ spatula
July 19:  Mauer/Morneau double bobble
August 3: Twins cap presented by DQ
Aug. 16: Aviator sunglasses and shell necklaces presented by The Beaches of Fort Myers and Sanibel on Lee County Day
August 17 and 18: Back to  school items presented by Target
Sept. 13: Twins blaze orange camouflage cap presented by Pepsi (), to-be-announced
Sept. 27 and 28: Fan Appreciation Weekend items
Sept. 29: Kids Appreciation Day item 

2013 Spring Training Guide to Fort Myers Part III: The Food

This is my second annual food guide to Fort Myers and the third and last in the series of the 2013 Guides to Fort Myers that include the logistics guide and the baseball guide.  The first was more of a culinary guide, pointing out what are the local foods, and pointing out places you can sample them.  That guide is still very relevant and you can find it here.  This one is a little different than last year's.  It is a more traditional restaurant guide. La Velle Neal has been publishing restaurant guides to Fort Myers on pretty much annual basis now (you can find his 2012 guide here)

This guide by no means try to compete with La Velle's.  And LEN3 and I come from different food perspectives and biases:  I do not eat red meat or fowl, so you shall not see any barbeque places, steakhouses or smokehouses here because I do not go to those places usually.  I do eat seafood, so there is a lot of this listed here.  The other thing I am doing, is trying to keep the list to places that are close to Hammond Stadium and the Twins' training complex.   Usually, when I am there, I have breakfast at my hotel, then at the ballparks until after the game is done and then out for dinner.  I usually have "lunch" at the ballpark.  And at the end, if you care to read that long, I will list the Twins' players 2 favorite hangouts.  This guide is broken down by restaurant type.

American:

Clancy's 11481 McGregor Blvd - Ft. Myers, FL (http://www.clanceysrestaurant.com/) Typical american fair. Solid food and good prices. Lots of sandwiches as well.  One of the few places you can actually have Triggerfish (by name). Try it, you'd like it. Lots of big burgers as well.

Fancy's Southern Cafe  8890 Salrose Lane, Fort Myers, FL (http://fancyssoutherncafe.com/)  True southern comfort food.  Excellent shrimp and grits, fried okra, fried green tomatoes and deep fried cheese grits.  And a slew of other Southern comfort food specials.  This place has something for everyone and really worth a visit.  Good prices too.

The Veranda. 2122 2nd St, Fort Myers, FL  (http://www.verandarestaurant.com/). Exactly what you will expect from an American/Continental dinning place with southern influences in Florida.  Great cuisine, huge entrees, semi-formal atmosphere and prices in the $30s unless you go the tapas way, chosing from a variety of their apperizers.  Blue Crab Cake, Southern Grit Cakes, Pan seared Scallops and Artichoke Fritters (all around $10) highly recommended from the appetizer menu.  You cannot go wrong with any entree item, but it is a lot of food.


Latin American:

El Patio Restaurant 4444 Cleveland Ave Fort Myers, FL  Peruvian.  And if you have never had Peruvian food, this restaurant will be a good exuse to try.  Awesome variety and prices (most entrees are under $10) and great flavor.  This is the real deal.  Try the seafood ceviche or one of the surf and turf mixes.


El Gaucho Inca 4391 Colonial Blvd, Fort Myers, FL (http://www.elgauchoinca.com/) "Peruvian, Argentinan and Italian" food.  Fancy Tango and dancing shows during dinner, the food is pretty interesting, if you like meat.  If you don't there are better choices.  The "Italian" part is because they serve pasta dishes.  Nothing Italian to them. Stay away from those.  The Argentinean dishes are pretty authentic, but the Peruvian derived...

Super Tacos 535 Pine Island Road, (North) Fort Myers, FL (http://supertacos.net/)  This is kind of far from the ballpark, but it is the best Mexican food place in Fort Myers, and this is why it is here.  Fresh fresh ingredients, large portions and great prices.  Their fish tacos are some of the best and at $2.99 per, an incredible value.  A variety of fairly authentic Mexican fare.


Asian:

Daruma Japanese Steak House (http://www.darumarestaurant.com/) 13499 S Cleveland Ave  Fort Myers, FL . Pretty solid but expensive Japanese fare.  On the Teppanyaki side of the house there is a great variety and great flavor.  Sushi is good, if overimaginative.  Kind of americanized flavors, but this is true of most asian places these days.  A ton of Teppan combinations, something for everyone.  Large wine and cocktail list.  Try the Oysters Tempura appetizer.  Total Japanese/Southern fusion.

Mr. Mees 5100 S. Cleveland Ave. Ft. Myers, FL (http://www.mrmees.com/index.htm).  Pan-Asian food (Japanese, Korean, Thai) and sushi.  By far my favorite Asian food place in Fort Myers.  Authentic Thai and Korean dishes and excellent sushi.  Try the Bi Bim Bop (they make it vegetarian or with a fried egg, if you ask) or any of the Yum dishes. Both of the Bin Daduk dishes (pork & kimchee or seafood) are excellent appetizers.

Osaka 16078 San Carlos Blvd. For Myers, FL (http://osakafortmyers.com/index.html)  The name is kind of misleading. It in a Thai place that also offers Japanese and Sushi (because Japanese and sushi are popular these days.)  Their Thai food is excellent.  Try any of the Yum or the noodle dishes.  Sushi and soups are good also.  A vast list of appetizers, can make this a good tapas/dim sum dinner place.


European/Mediterranean/French:


Blue Windows French Bistro. 15250 S. Tamiami Trail, Fort Myers, FL (http://www.mybluewindows.com/)  Fine French Bistro Food.  Four course Prix Fixe menu that changes nightly based on best available local foods for about $50 a person.  Also offers a variety of tasting menus and wine pairings.  Traditional a la carte continental French courses as well.  Extensive wine list.  Best place to burn $200 for a dinner for 2 in Fort Myers. On the other hand, that $200 is about 8 Twins' tickets.  Priorities.


Cibo  12901 Mcgregor Blvd, Ste 17, Fort Myers, FL  (http://cibofortmyers.com/)  Upscale Italian.  Extensive Wine list. Extensive Antipasto list. You can potentially have a great traditional Italian meal or an excellent Tapas dinner.

Sasse's 3651 Evans Avenue  Fort Myers, FL (http://www.sassesfortmyers.com/) Italian with continental flair.  Menu changes based on seasonal availability.  Mid-priced, even offers things like Pizza.  Gluten-free menu on request.  Their fish/seafood soup is awesome, if you like fish of course.


Seafood:


Pawnbroker 13451 - 16 McGregor Blvd, Fort Myers, FL  (http://www.prawnbroker.com/)  Same Strip Mall as Blu Sushi (which will be listed later).  Fresh seafood and a seafood counter selling fresh seafood next to it.  Bit old fashion but good traditional seafood. This is the kind of place that your grandma will take you and your significant other out.  And that happens a lot in that place.  Food is really really fresh, so enjoy.  You might have to overlook the fact that you are the youngest person in the place. Even if you are in your 40s.

Maria's Old Florida Restaurant; 17979 San Carlos Boulevard, Fort Myers, FL Listed as seafood here, but it really is a Creole (and some Cajun) fusion restaurant that incorporates a lot of seafood in their dishes. Interesting dishes like Cajun Shepard's Pie and Crawfish Enchiladas.

Clam Bake 16520 S Tamiami Trl Ste 10, Fort Myers, FL   (http://clambakefortmyers.com/)  "Authentic New England Seafood".  Hole in the wall place, family operated by former Rhode Islanders.  They feature a variety of New England seafood like Stuffed Quahog, Clam Bakes, fried Oysters, Clams, Scallops and Shrimp, Clam Chowder, Steamed Lobster and a whole bunch of seafood sandwiches including Lobster Roll.  Informal, inexpensive and great food.

Blue Pointe Oyster Bar & Seafood Grill, 13499 SE Cleveland Ave Suite 141, Fort Myers, FL  (http://www.bluepointerestaurant.com/).  Traditional upscale great seafood place.  Fresh seafood, great preparations.  Grab one of the fish in the fish of the day list and get it prepared your way and you will do no wrong.  Extensive wine and raw bar list. You know those seafood places that have that "steakhouse feel"?  This is one of them.  If this is your style, this one is a winner.  My only complaint (and this is nitpicking) is that they do not use lots of local fish, but prefer northern fish.

3 Fishermen Seafood 5100 S. Cleveland Ave. Ft. Myers, FL (same strip mall as Mr. Mees - actually a couple doors down.) (http://www.threefishermenseafood.com/) casual, inexpensive and great food.  A Tip: Even if there is not in the menu (they have it as one of their rotating specials), ask for grilled grouper tacos.  You will not regret it.  Big enough to fit two or a hungry teenager.  Great shimp dishes and their signature is the Captain Paul’s Grouper. Great smoked fish dip as well.  I really like this place.
 
Local Hangouts:

CRaVE: 12901 McGregor Boulevard, Fort Myers, FL (http://cravemenu.com/) not to be confused with the American Bistro chain with the same name.  Fresh, local and organic food.  Bistro feel.  Great appetizers and well known for their sandwiches and salads.  Lots of interesting takes on confort food like Meatloaf, Shepherd's Pie, Pot Roast and Pot Pie.  Great Omelets for breakfast.

Two Meatballs in the Kitchen. 8890 Salrose Ln Fort Myers, FL (http://www.2meatballs.com/)  Typical Northeast Italian Food and Pizza. Plentiful sizes, huge variety, usually packed.  Part of a local trifecto of restaurants that includes Taste of New York and Bella Rosa, the Two Meatballs is the most casual and busy of the 3. If you crave Northeast italian-american food, this is your place.

Pincher's Crab Shack  15271 McGregor Boulevard Fort Myers, FL (http://www.pincherscrabshack.com/)  Seafood but I am listing it here because this place rocks on happy hour.  Indoor-outdoor seating, great fresh food, very good beer list and lots of mixed drinks.  Grouper tacos are really awesome here.  Very close to the ballpark as well.






Chains of note:

Bahama Breeze: 14701 S Tamiami Trl, Fort Myers, FL  (http://www.bahamabreeze.com/)
Caribbean-inspired food.  Large variety of appetizers and small plates.  Go for the fresh fish and make sure that it is something that exists in FL, like Grouper or Snapper, otherwise pass on the Mahi and farmed Salmon.  Bunch of cocktails too.  It's ok, nothing spectacular, but interesting variety of food.  Lots of rum-based drinks, if you are into that kind of thing.



Cantina Laredo 5200 Big Pine Way, Fort Myers, FL (http://www.cantinalaredo.com/) Their Motto is "Modern Mexican" and that it is.  And it has solid food.  But expensive food.  Tex Mex and flavorful.  Lots of people love it.  For me it is to Mexican what PF Chang's (which is also in Fort Myers, I think) is to Chinese.

Grimaldi's Coal Brick-Oven Pizzeria. 13499 S Cleveland Ave Fort Myers, FL (http://www.grimaldispizzeria.com/) As close to authentic New York style pizza as you can get in Florida because it started in Brooklyn.  Small chain. Definitely worth a look if you are into pizza. Simple, traditional, nothing fusion here. 

Sweet Tomatoes: 14080 South Tamiami Trail, Fort Myers, FL (http://www.souplantation.com/)
Soup, Pasta and Salad bar.  Fresh budget food with a lot of choices.

Pizza Fusion 12901 McGregor Blvd. Fort Myers, FL (http://pizzafusion.com/)  This is the exact opposite of Grimaldi's.  Organic crusts, organic toppings, interesting varieties and pizzas that look like flat breads (long and skinny.)  Great flavors.  Try the pear and gorgonzola, if you look for something different.


The best places to rub shoulders with Twins' major and minor leaguers:

As far as young single major leaguers and AAA players (like Luke Hughes, Danny Valencia, Drew Butera etc last season) and bonus-babies go, it is Blu Sushi 13451 McGregor Blvd Fort Myers, FL  (http://www.blusushi.com/).  Overimaginitive Sushi and Martini menu, really caters to the 20-something crowd.  Fresh and flavorful.  And Hip Crowd.

As far as older players with families and younger minor leaguers go, it is Patinella's Chicken Grill  6810 Shoppes At Plantation Dr Fort Myers, FL (http://www.patinellaschickengrill.com/) or "The Chicken Grill" on Plantation Shoppes Drive. They offer grilled cut chicken on rice bowls with a bunch of veggies in different flavors or flatbread sandwiches. Pretty healthy fare for ballplayers.

A note about beer and wine:

In Florida beer and wine can be sold in places like gas stations and grocery stores.  Most drug stores have adjunct liquer stores that sell the aforementioned plus liquor.  The best beer variety is in grocery stores, and from those Publix tends to have more microbrews than the others.  Because of the competition, the prices are fairly good, on the $7-10 range for a microbrew six pack.

Assessing the Starting Pitching in the Twins' Organization

For a baseball team to content, one of three things need to happen:

1. An organization has to develop impact starting pitchers.
2. An organization has to trade for impact starting pitcher.
3. An organizations has to sign impact starting pitcher free agents.

I demonstrated earlier this month that the Twins' last two year abysmal record could have been predicted as earlier as 2008, based on the state of their starting pitching prospects.  Only 11 pitchers who have been in the Twins' minors in 2008 are still in the organization and none has been an impact starter.  The Twins have been adverse in doing numbers 2 and 3 above, so in order to compete, they have to develop starting pitching talent.

The Denard Span and Ben Revere trades infused the Twins with 3 young starting pitchers: Vince Worley, 24, and Trevor May and Alex Meyer, both 22, which makes the future a bit more hopeful.  How hopeful?  I will try to quantify, so the rest of the discussion here will be metrics and numbers based.  This will actually be somewhat of a logical continuation of this analysis, where in August last year, I tried to look positively into the 2012 Minnesota Twins pitching and draw conclusions based on potential.  What I am doing here is looking at the whole organization Starting Pitching, under very similar metrics and see what the future might look like.  This will include potential rankings of Twins' starters, but it is not a prospect list.  They are based on their 2012 performance (and adjusted for age and playing level) and not their potential.  Injured players, such as Wimmers and Salcedo will be higher on prospect lists that ranked here, because their numbers were awful.

The metrics I like to use to do this have been some simple things of my own device: Pitching Effectiveness or PE and Expected Pitching Effectiveness or xPE.  I fiddled around with PE in 2008 and with xPE in 2009.  Here is the reason I devised PE and here is the reason I optimized it to xPE.  My main arguments were a. I felt like xFIP and FIP and DICE weigh too much things like home runs (which anyone who watched the home runs by Miquel Cabrera and Delmon Young against the Twins yesterday cannot deny that they are a matter of inches and ballpark and luck and fielding performance from being a long fly ball).  Also these formulae are hard to memorize and I wanted something simple I can calculate looking at a stat sheet and also something that you can calculate using splits (e.g. how has Brian Duensing or Glen Perkins been as a starter vs as a reliever); you can find xFIP around, but not in a spit form.  So in 2008 I devised PE, which simple takes account three things:  Strikeouts, walks and hits.  So a pitcher who strikes out more people, walks fewer and gives lesser hits is more likely to succeed than someone who doesn't.  And all hits are counted equal because the difference between a single and a triple might be the difference of having Delmon Young or Ben Revere play Left Field or the difference between a fly ball out and a home run might be the difference of having Torii Hunter or Rich Becker playing Center Field.  And I use WHIP, K/9 and K/BB to calculate PE (a simple PE= (K/9*K/BB)/WHIP).  xPE further normalizes for BABIP (to league average .290) to account for "luck" with hits.  And unlike FIP and ERA, these two measures go the opposite directions (higher is better) and have a large variation (0.x to 100+) to allow for granularity in comparisons vs. compressing performance from 0 to 10 or so.  Over here, I show that xFIP and FIP correlate pretty well to the much more complex SIERA, which is way too complex to be able to calculate just with a cell phone calculate (which is my goal as far as metrics go.)

PE and xPE have been fine to show performance and expected performance.  How about potential?  This is the many million dollar question, because if someone is able to guess estimate future potential of a player in single A, he/she will be having a great advantage in identifying cheap, future impact players, in a more objective way than scouting reports.  So yet a new measure in the PE family has been devised:  the adjusted expected pitching effectiveness or axPE.  I tried something similar the off-season after the 2008 season, but the resulting formula was too complicated (cannot fit on a T-shirt or be calculated using a cell phone calculator), so needed to be refined.  I hope I am close to this, since axPE is simpler.  It takes into consideration level of play.  Each level of play gets a number.  Here are these numbers:

All Rookie Leagues: 1
A: 2
A+: 3
AA: 4
AAA: 5
MLB: 6

the average of the levels a player participated is taken into consideration for axPE.  For example if a pitcher spent part of the season in high A and then moved to AA, the average level grade is 3.5.

The other adjustment involves someone's age.  Younger players in higher levels have higher potential; this is the premise here. axPE is defined as xPE* (level/age) *7 .  The 7 is a coefficient that makes it a number  in the neighborhood of PE and xPE.

A note of importance:  agPE is biased towards better performance in higher levels; this is by design, since there have been pitchers who blew away rookie leagues and then bottomed out when they went to AA.

The PE family metrics translators for starters (and relievers, for the sake of completeness, but RP are out of score here) are roughly translated to:

Rotation:
xPE/axPE
35+ Ace
25-35 #1- #2 Starter
15-25 #2- #3 Starter
10-15 #3 - #4 Starter
7.5-10 #5 Starter

Bullpen:
xPE/axPE
35+ Closer
25-35 Closer-Setup
15-25 Setup- Long Relief
8-15 Long Relief-Mopup

where axPE denotes intermediate/long term potential.

So, do the Twins have any potentially impact starters in their organization, based on their 2012 performance?

Without further ado, here are the numbers, that include pretty much every pitcher in the Twins organization, including the new ones, and those who pitched only in the major league level in 2012, under 30 years old.  The age indicated is their age in 2012.  I am including Nick Blackburn, for comparison's sake.  Raw data is taken from B-R and an (*) denotes LHP:

Thus,  it looks like the Twins have 3 potential impact starters in their organization; Kyle Gibson and Alex Meyer are not a surprise.  Cole DeVries is.  Cole DeVries' axPE is higher than his xPE level (which turns out to suggest a middle of the rotation starter), because he performed at the MLB level.  Whether or not potential is applicable to a 28 year old who has reached the majors, is a good discussion.   On the other extreme, some of the K/9 leaders in the organization, Josue Montanez, Taylor Rogers, Felix Jorge, Tyler Jones have repressed axPE, because they are still at the lower levels of the organization.  I think that they need to prove themselves at higher level.

Based on this, and if you cut the list at 25 years old or younger, the Twins have at least couple of pitchers who have impact starter (i.e. top of the rotation/ace) potential and several who have mid-rotation potential. 

A huge qualifier:  This list is of pitchers who were used mostly as starters (i.e. made more starts than relief appearances in 2012.)  This leaves at least one particular pitcher out who should be included, but he made 4 starts and 7 relief appearances:  Jose Berrios.  His numbers (albeit in 11 games and 30 some innings) are out of this world: 284.12 PE, 236.11 xPE, and 91.82 axPE.  He should be part of the discussion and definitely has top of the rotation potential, but there is an asterisk for the reasons mentioned.

Others who made few starts but mostly used in a relief role but definitely should be part of the equation are (in no order) : Matt Houser, Miguel Munoz, AJ Achter, Cole Johnson, Argentis Silva (the 16 year old high bonus singing) Elias Villasarra, Fernando Romero, Luke Bard, Jose Jimenez, Corey Kimes, Brett Lee and Mason Melotakis.

Again, this is an intermediate term discussion and does not really involve recent Twins veteran acquisitions Rich Harden, Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia.

Who is the newest member of the Twins HOF, Tom Mee.

Today the Minnesota Twins selected two new members to their Hall of Fame,  LHP "Everyday" Eddie Guardado, and long time staffer Tom Mee.  All Twins' fans know Everyday Eddie, but who is Tom Mee?

Tom Mee has been with the Twins' organization from their first season in Minnesota (1961) until their last title (1991).   He was the first front office person hired when the Twins moved to Minnesota in 1960 and was asked to lead their transition from Washington.  The following season he became their PR Director, a position he held until his retirement.  After his retirement  from the Twins he was the official scorer in the Metrodome until 2007 and spend 2 seasons (1992 and 1993) with the Twins' broadcasting team with Dick Bremmer and Jim Kaat.

He is a graduate of Joe Mauer's Alma Matter, St. Paul's Cretin High School. Mee was a baseball player with the University of Minnesota Golden Gophers in the late 40s and played a couple seasons in the Independent Leagues.  He was then certified by the Brown Institute of Radio as an announcer and his career as a Baseball radio announcer begun.  It took him form Detroit Lakes to Montana to New Mexico when he finally settled back in the Cities doing Public Relationships for the St. Paul Saints (the former incarnation) in 1957.

One of the little known facts about Mee is that he is the person who hired Jim Rantz to the Twins front office.  In 1965, when the Twins won the pennant and went to the World Series, his one man PR department was overloaded and he needed a part time assistant so he hired Rantz who was managing the St. Cloud Northern League Club.  Rantz stuck around from 1965 until last off-season.

Tom Mee's son and grandson have also played baseball at the University of Minnesota.   His grandson, Mike Mee, played a couple seasons in the Diamondbacks organization last decade.

2013 Spring Training Guide to Fort Myers Part II: The Baseball

This is the second of the three 2013 Spring Training Guides to Fort Myers that will appear here.  The first one was a guide on the logistics of how to get there and where to stay etc., including some ways to get there as inexpensively as possible, if that is a consideration.  The Logistics Guide can be found here.  The next guide will be about food and this one is about the reason people go to Fort Myers:  Spring Training baseball.

The Twins' Spring Training Complex:

Here is a satellite image of the Lee County Sports Complex (all images are screenshots from Bing Maps) :




The complex is accessible via the Miracle on 34th St, either from Ben C Pratt Pkwy or from Plantation Rd. The best was to go is via the Parkway, esp. if it is busy. Miracle on 34th St divides the Twins' part of the complex from the four county softball field. Hammond Stadium, the site of the Twins Spring Training home games and the home of the Fort Myers Miracle (the Twins' high A, Florida State League affiliate) is on the Northeast corner of the Complex. Those parallel lines is the parking lot that can fit about 2000 cars. The stadium seats about 8000 people, so parking can be tight.

In addition to Hammond Stadium, there are four full size practice fields and two infield practice fields. You can find Twins' major and minor league players working out in those fields throughout the day, so it might make sense to explore the whole complex or even catch (a free, other than parking) minor league game or two. Some Hotels offer free shuttle service to the Complex, so make sure you explore this option if available

During Twins' home games you have to pay for parking, however when the Twins are away, you can come into the complex and park for free and watch the Twins' minor leagues (you can do that on game days in the morning as well.)  The minor leaguers are using the 3 full fields further away from the Ballpark and the inflied half field right next to the clubhouse (the tin building). The practice field next to the ballpark is exclusively used by the MLB team.

There are 2 different camps take place there (the MLB and MiLB camp) but there is not a "dividing line" that folks who are cut from the big camp have to cross to get "down to the minor league" camp.  As you can see, all the fields are next to each other.   Often, non-travelling major leaguers (I saw Casilla and Carroll do that last season) play in Minor League games.  So do rehabing major leaguers.

The best way to watch the minor leaguers is to drive and park close to the clubhouse (there are not too many cars on non-game days, about as many as they are in the picture) and go between the 3 large fields.  Usually AAA plays on the North West most field and AA next to it.  With a little bit of imagination, one can sit between both fields and watch 2 games.  There are bleachers in the area (metal).  Bathrooms and a water fountain are in the south of the clubhouse building.   Bringing water is a must here because there are no concessions.  A lot of lower level or non-playing minor leaguers are around  and on the stands watching the AAA and AA games.  Actually pitchers are relegated to radar charting duty in tables in the common area behind the home plates and the fence, and standing around there is a good place to look at the radar readings.  You can also find Twin Cities Sports Celebrities on the stands:






The "dugouts" and "bullpens" are just fenced in areas so you can get a great look of the Twins' minor leaguers.  All minor league games are free.  The new Twins' lease will provide for a dorm to be build in the area, but I am not certain on its wearabouts, but likely South of the fields and just west of the county softball fields.


Hammond Stadium:

Hammond Stadium (and the Lee County Complex) was officially opened in the Spring of 1991. (The year of the Twins' last World Championship.) It is the home of Fort Myers Miracle, a franchise that has Jimmy Buffett and Bill Murray as part-owners. It has been recently renovated and is one of the largest Ball Parks in FSL, sitting up to 8500 people.



As with most minor league stadiums, most sitting is on the infield between the two dugouts. Hammonds Stadium has a nose bleed 2xx level as well and a small grassy field on short right field for fans to sit picnic style. Spring training tickets cost from $45 to $10 or so, depending on the opponent and the seating.  As far as tickets go, there are ticket outlets just outside the Park.  You can preorder tickets over the web, or you can frequently obtain them from locals in the parking lot who are not interesting in attending the game.











One thing that you MUST note: bottled water in unopened containers is permitted in the stadium, as are bags up to 16x16x8 (think reusable grocery bags), so please take advantage of that. That said, the stadium has one of the best selections of beers, including more than 20 mainstream, import and microbrew beers and ales. The best variety of beer, including beer sold only for Twins' and Miracle's games there, is at the bar at the far left (third base) end of the outside concourse, right before the bullpen

They only sell Pepsi products as far as soft drinks go. I will have a food guide within a week, but I have to mention that there is an interesting variety of food, including pizza, sweet potato fries, fish tacos, deep fried nachos on a stick, and two artery clogging specialties: the Carolina Dog, a hot dog topped with pulled pork, baked beans and coleslaw and the Richard Simmons burger a behemoth featuring a 1/4 lb burger, a 1/4 lb chicken, a 1/4 lb brat, held together by 3 slices of cheese and six strips of bacon and contains more calories that the average developing world person eats in a week. There is an annual concession guide, for the stadium that yet has to be published.

Here is the seating guide from the Miracle web site. Also, this is a great article about Hammonds Stadium with a lot of detail about the ball park.  Also, here is a must see panoramic view of the seating are a from last year's Spring Training.  The Twins' dugout is on the third base side and the bullpen on the end of the bleachers in short left.  The new lease provides for major renovations to the Ballpark including a catwalk area at the Outfield.  Not sure when this will start and whether it will be around for the 2013 Spring Training. 

Little known fact:  If you go to the Spring Training and the home of the Fort Myers Miracle and expect to find Miracle merchandise in the gift shop, you will be disappointed.  During Spring Training, there are only Twins' merchandise.  However, they have Miracle merchandise.  If you go there in a day where there are no games (the ballpark is open) and go to the gift shop and ask, they will bring you some.

Other things:

Last but not least, the Twins do not play home games every day. So what to do in an off day? I would chose from one of the following two things: Either drive to the Complex trying to catch minor leaguers (my favorite choice) and non-traveling major leaguers in action in one (or more) of the fields, or drive to watch the Twins in an away game. Here is a map of Florida that shows all the Grapefruit League home team locations:



The Rays play their home games about half an hour away and the Pirates and Orioles about an hour away or so. The Red Sox play in Fort Myers. Those are the most convenient ball parks to visit. 

Next:  The Food Guide.

Newest Twins' Uniform Numbers

Amid great speculation Twins' President David St. Peter revealed the uniform numbers of the newest Twins.  They are:

Kevin Correia 30 (last worn by Scott Baker).  Correia has worn 29 the last 4 seasons with the Pardes and the Pirates and 50, 53 and 32 with the Giants

Mike Pelfrey 37 (last worn by Sean Burroughs.) Pelfrey has worn 34 all his career, but we all know who this number belongs to.

Rich Harden 47 (last worn by Fransisco Liriano.) Harden has worn, 16, 40 and 18 with the Athletics and 40 with both the Rangers and Cubs.

Vance Worley 49 (last worn by Jeff Manship.)  49 is the only number that Worley wore in his pro career (with the Phillies so far)

Aaron Hicks 63 (last worn by Joe Benson). Hicks has been wearing 55 in Spring Trainings

There you go.  You can now order your custom made shirsey or jersey.

Interesting to see that the Ps who are ready for a new beginning are wearing numbers they did not use before.