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6/7/12

Myth Busting: The Rich Anderson Legacy or the Twins' pitching in the 00s

I think that a lot of the Minnesota Twins' fans have been frustrated with the way the Twins have been performing this and the last season.  Some of us have been frustrated even longer, since the Twins have last won a World Series in 1991.  That was 21 seasons ago.  Kids who were born then they can now buy booze.  Not good.

Anecdotally, there have been a lot of remarks and thoughts about the Twins trying to create cookie cutter pitchers, about Ron Anderson (who was named the pitching coach when Ron Gardenhire was named the manager in 2001) wanted everyone in the whole organization to throw the 2 seamer and pitch to contact.

But gut feelings and all, this blog is about substantiated evidence and numbers.  So here is what I did, and here is what I am presenting:  I looked at all pitchers who wore a Twins' uniform this Millennium and compared how they did while with the Twins vs. how they did after they left the Twins. I went as far as 2009-10 (but some of the latest losses have inconclusive numbers).

And here is the honor roll.  A list of 20 pitchers who did better after they left the Twins, when they were older, when they were past their prime.  Not one or two (like Jose Reyes who did phenomenally while with the Twins) but 20.  It cannot be a coincidence.   And I am not even including pitchers like Sergio Santos and Peter Moylan on whom the Twins gave up before they ever gave them a chance.

Here is Rick Anderson's (ok a couple are before his time) Honor Roll:

Luis Ayala:

Twins 2009 (age 31) : 4.18 ERA, 1.423 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, 2.63 K/BB (was cut)
Yankees 2011 (age 33) : 2.09 ERA, 1.268 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 1.95 K/BB
Orioles 2012 (age 34) : 1.82 ERA, 1.054 WHIP, 5.1 K/9, 2.80 K/BB

Grand Balfour:

Twins (2001-2004 ages 23-26) : 4.63 ERA, 1.456 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 1.95 K/BB
Rays (2007-2010 ages 29-32) : 3.33 ERA, 1.212 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 2.6 K/BB
Athletics (2011-2012 ages 33-34) : 2.78 ERA, 1.145 WHIP, 8 K/9, 2.52 K/BB

Joe Beimel:

Twins (2004, age 27) : 43.20 ERA, 6 WHIP, 1.2 IP (was cut)
LA Dodgers (2006-2008, ages 29-31) 3.04 ERA, 1.336 WHIP, 4.9 K/8, 1.53 K/BB
Nationals (2009 age 32) 3.40 ERA, 1.336 WHIP, 5.4 K/8, 1.6 K/BB
Rockies (2009-10 ages 32-33) : 3.56 ERA, 1.385 WHIP, 4.7 K/9, 1.68 K/BB

Craig Breslow:

Twins 2008-9 (ages 27-28) : 2.89 ERA, 1.132 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 1.72 K/BB (was cut)
Oakland 2009-11 (ages 28-30) : 3.14 ERA, 1.199 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 2.34 K/BB
Arizona 2012 (age 31) : 2.13 ERA, 1.026 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 2.2 K/BB


Jesse Crain:

Twins 2004-10 (ages 22-28) : 3.42 ERA, 1.257 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 1.87 K/BB
White Sox 2011-12 (ages 29-30) : 2.37 ERA, 1.180 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 2.42 K/BB

Jack Cressend:

Twins (2000-2001 ages 25-27) : 4.59 ERA, 1.480 WHIP, 6 K/9, 1.66 K/BB
Indians (2003-2004 ages 28-29) : 3.53 ERA, 1.381 WHIP, 5.5 K/9 1.89 K/BB


R.A. Dickey:

Twins: 2009 (age 34) : 4.62 ERA, 1.617 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, 1.4 K/BB
Mets: 2010-12 (ages 35-37) 3.08 ERA, 1.193 WHIP, 6 K/9, 2.65 K/BB

Willie Eyre:

Twins 2006 (age 27) : 5.31 ERA, 1.635 WHIP, 3.9 K/9, 1.18 K/BB
Texas 2007-9 (ages 28-30) : 5.02 ERA, 1.558 WHIP, 5.2 K/9, 1.32 K/BB
Baltimore 2011 (age 32) : 3.44 ERA, 0.927 WHIP, 4.9 K/9, 2 K/BB

Aaron Fultz:


Twins (2004, age 30) : 5.04 ERA, 1.460 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 1.61 K/BB
Phillies (2005-6 ages 31-32) : 3.38 ERA, 1.239 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 2.27 K/BB
Indians (2007, age 33) : 2.92 ERA, 1.324 WHIP, 6.8, 1.56 K/BB

Matt Garza:

Twins 2006-7 (ages 22-23) : 4.47 ERA, 1.602 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 1.91 K/BB
Rays 2008-10 (ages 24-26) : 3.86 ERA, 1.251 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 2.32 K/BB
Cubs 2011-12 (ages 27-28) : 3.51 ERA, 1.237 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 3.00 K/BB

LaTroy Hawkins:

Twins: (SP/RP 1995-2003 ages 22-30): 5.05 ERA, 1.523 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, 1.83 K/BB
Twins: (RP: 2000-2003 ages 27-30): 3.09 ERA, 1.271 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 2.31 K/BB
Cubs: (2004-2005 ages 31-32) : 2.76 ERA, 1.099 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 3.9 K/BB

Livan Hernandez:


Twins 2008 (age 33) : 5.48 ERA, 1.632 WHIP, 3.5 K/9, 1.86 K/BB
Nationals 2009-11 (ages 34-36) 4.17 ERA, 1.363 WHIP, 5.0 K/9, 1.82 K/BB
Atlanta 2012 (age 37) : 3.68 ERA, 1.389 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, 2.38 K/BB

Phil Humber:

Twins 2008-9 (ages 25-26) : 6.10 ERA, 2.032 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 1.07 K/BB
Royals 2010 (age 27) : 4.15 ERA, 1.338 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 2.29 K/BB
White Sox 2011-12 (ages 28-29) : 4.14 ERA, 1.219 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 2.55 K/BB

Mike Lincoln:


Twins (1999-2000 ages 24-25) : 7.70 ERA, 1.825 WHIP, 3.9 K/9, 1.08 K/BB
Pirates (2001-2003 ages 26-28) : 3.50 ERA, 1.362 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 2 K/BB

Kyle Lohse:

Twins 2001-2006 (ages 22-27) : 4.88 ERA, 1.447 WHIP, 5.6 K/9, 1.94 K/BB
Reds 2006-2007 (ages 27-28) : 4.58 ERA, 1.361 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 2.52 K/BB
Cardinals 2008-2012 (ages 29-33) : 4.18 ERA, 1.332 WHIP, 5.4 K/9, 2.33 K/BB

Jose Mijares:


Twins 2009-11 (ages 23-26) : 3.16 ERA, 1.315 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 1.9 K/BB
Royals 2012 (age 27) : 2.49 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 4.0 K/BB

Mark Redman:
Twins (1999-2001 ages 25-27) : 4.86 ERA, 1.469 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 2.21 K/BB
Detroit (2001-2002 ages 27-28) : 4.29 ERA, 1.307 WHIP, 4.8 K/9, 2.05 K/BB
Florida (2003 age 29) : 3.59 ERA, 1.222 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 2.48 K/BB

JC Romero:

Twins: (1999-2005 ages 23-29) : 4.35 ERA, 1.482 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 1.61 K/BB
Philies: (2007-2011 ages 31-35) : 2.73 ERA, 1.406 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 1.14 K/BB

Brad Thomas:


Twins (2001-2004 ages 23-26) : 9.89 ERA, 2.155 WHIP, 3 K/9, 0.85 K/BB
Tigers (2010-2011 ages 32-33) : 4.59 ERA, 1.606 WHIP, 4.1 K/9, 1.06 K/BB








That is a lot of opportunity lost.   A lot of adverse results.  And this does not even include the current pitchers.  It is not one or two or 3.  Twenty.  The Twins can just not ignore this  any more...










2 comments:

Eric Pleiss said...

I'd be interested to see the other side of this coin. What happens to pitchers the Twins acquire?

thrylos98 said...

Hey, there is a project for you ;) I did something similar (both for acquired and for went away) few years ago about hitters, SLG% was the thing, so I did the Ps now. But did not do the incoming. 20 is a huge number