Who will replace Joel Zumaya for the Twins?

Joel Zumaya left the mount on Saturday with elbow discomfort, cutting his workout short. Terry Ryan announced on Sunday that an MRI showed that he has torn his UCL, will undergo Tommy John surgery and not pitch for a month. It is unclear whether the Twins released him yet, but at this point that is a technicality, because by releasing him they will save $450,000 and pay him only the guaranteed $400,000.

There are 32 remaining pitchers (64 arms) in the Twins' spring training camp. From those, I would argue that the following 9 are locks to make the team, leaving 23 players to fight for 3 open bullpen spots. Here is a list of my locks:

Rotation:
Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Francisco Liriano, Jason Marquis, Carl Pavano

Pen:
Matt Capps, Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak (3 open spots)

Lets examine the remaining 23 pitchers a bit closer. The following is a list of the pitchers in the Twins' camp broken down by whether they are in the 40-man roster or not (there is a spot available now that Zumaya is not with the team) sorted alphabetically. I also list their age, whether they are left-handed or right-handed, whether they are starters or relieves, their 2011 MLB average fastball velocity (they do have to replace someone who touched triple digits), their career major league and minor league numbers and their off-season fall or winter league numbers. Here is the list:

On the 40-man roster:

Alex Burnett RHP, 24, 2011 MLB Average FB (PitchF/X) : 93.3; reliever
MLB Career: 98.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 1.485 WHIP, 6.4 K/9, 1.57 K/BB, 4.60 FIP, 4.64 xFIP
MiLB Career: 519.2 IP, 3.41 ERA, 1.201 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 2.97 K/BB
2012 Winter: N/A

Scott Diamond LHP, 25, 2011 MLB Average FB (PitchF/X) : 88.8; starter
MLB Career: 39 IP, 5.08 ERA, 1.744 WHIP, 4.4 K/9, 1.12 K/BB, 4.36 FIP, 4.87 xFIP
MiLB Career: 565.1 IP, 3.77 ERA, 1.415 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 2.46 K/BB
2012 Winter: N/A

Terry Doyle RHP, 26, 2011 MLB Average FB (PitchF/X) : N/A; starter
MLB Career: N/A
MiLB Career: 422.2 IP, 2.94 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 3.93 K/BB
2012 Winter (AFL): 27.1 IP, 1.98 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, 5 BB, 22 K

Jeff Gray RHP, 30, 2011 MLB Average FB (PitchF/X) : 92.9; reliever
MLB Career: 88.2 IP, 4.57 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 5.1 K/9, 1.61 K/BB, 4.47 FIP, 4.41 xFIP
MiLB Career: 409.2 IP, 3.56 ERA, 1.225 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 2.98 K/BB
2012 Winter: N/A

Deolis Guerra RHP, 23, 2011 MLB Average FB (PitchF/X) : N/A; reliever
MLB Career: N/A
MiLB Career: 680 IP, 4.95 ERA, 1.413 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 1.94 K/BB
2012 Winter (VWL): 26.2 IP, 3.71 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 7 BB, 23 K

Carlos Gutierrez RHP, 25, 2011 MLB Average FB (PitchF/X) : N/A; reliever
MLB Career: N/A
MiLB Career: 321 IP, 4.07 ERA, 1.430 WHIP, 6.4 K/9, 1.68 K/BB
2012 Winter: N/A

Liam Hendriks RHP, 23, 2011 MLB Average FB (PitchF/X) : 90; starter
MLB Career: 23.1 IP, 6.17 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 2.67 K/BB, 4.10 FIP, 3.66 xFIP
MiLB Career: 375.2 IP, 2.78 ERA, 1.089 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 5.72 K/BB
2012 Winter: N/A

Matt Maloney LHP, 28, 2011 MLB Average FB (PitchF/X) : 86.8; starter
MLB Career: 80 IP, 5.40 ERA, 1.450 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 3.18 K/BB, 5.48 FIP, 4.57 xFIP
MiLB Career: 890.1 IP, 3.27 ERA, 1.178 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 3.34 K/BB
2012 Winter: N/A

Jeff Manship RHP, 27, 2011 MLB Average FB (PitchF/X) : 90; starter
MLB Career: 64 IP, 5.63 ERA, 1.609 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 1.76 K/BB, 4.35 FIP, 4.57 xFIP
MiLB Career: 574 IP, 3.54 ERA, 1.268 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 3.24 K/BB
2012 Winter: N/A

Lester Oliveros RHP, 24, 2011 MLB Average FB (PitchF/X) : 93.9; Reliever
MLB Career: 21.1 IP, 4.64 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 5.5 K/9, 1.18 K/BB, 3.35 FIP, 4.71 xFIP
MiLB Career: 275.2 IP, 3.21 ERA, 1.288 WHIP, 11.2 K/9, 2.84 K/BB
2012 Winter (VWL): 20.1 IP, 1.33 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 9 BB, 18 K

Tyler Robertson LHP, 24, 2011 MLB Average FB (PitchF/X) : N/A; starter/reliever
MLB Career: N/A
MiLB Career: 616.1 IP, 3.69 ERA, 1.379 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 2.47 K/BB
2012 Winter: N/A

Kyle Waldrop RHP, 26, 2011 MLB Average FB (PitchF/X) : 88.4; reliever
MLB Career: 11 IP, 5.73 ERA, 1.455 WHIP, 4.1 K/9, 0.83 K/BB, 4.93 FIP, 4.44 xFIP
MiLB Career: 779 IP, 3.63 ERA, 1.276 WHIP, 5.7 K/9, 2.91 K/BB
2012 Winter: N/A



Not on the 40-man roster:

Jason Bulger RHP, 33, 2011 MLB Average FB (PitchF/X) : 91.6; reliever
MLB Career: 133 IP, 4.33 ERA, 1.406 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 1.84 K/BB, 4.49 FIP, 4.17 xFIP
MiLB Career: 405 IP, 3.80 ERA, 1.398 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 2.58 K/BB
2012 Winter: N/A

Jared Burton RHP, 33, 2011 MLB Average FB (PitchF/X) : 90.7; reliever
MLB Career: 169 IP, 3.41 ERA, 1.325 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 1.96 K/BB, 3.97 FIP, 4.39 xFIP
MiLB Career: 340.2 IP, 3.46 ERA, 1.253 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 2.56 K/BB
2012 Winter: N/A

Samuel Deduno RHP, 28, 2011 MLB Average FB (PitchF/X) : 89.2; reliever
MLB Career: 5.2 IP, 3.18 ERA, 2.118 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 1.75 K/BB, 4.99 FIP, 3.57 xFIP
MiLB Career: 738.1 IP, 4.29 ERA, 1.423 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 1.88 K/BB
2012 Winter (DWL): 6 IP, 1.50 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 4 BB, 13 K

Phil Dumatrait LHP, 28, 2011 MLB Average FB (PitchF/X) : 91; reliever
MLB Career: 151 IP, 6.20 ERA, 1.781 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, 1.08 K/BB, 5.76 FIP, 5.33 xFIP
MiLB Career: 883.1 IP, 3.66 ERA, 1.396 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 1.59 K/BB
2012 Winter: N/A

Casey Fien RHP, 28, 2011 MLB Average FB (PitchF/X) : 91.5 (2010) ; reliever
MLB Career: 14 IP, 8.36 ERA, 1.643 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, 1.50 K/BB, 6.81 FIP, 5.41 xFIP
MiLB Career: 311 IP, 3.07 ERA, 1.125 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 4.43 K/BB
2012 Winter(DWL): 30.2 IP, 4.40 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8 BB, 31K

Luis Perdomo RHP, 28, 2011 MLB Average FB (PitchF/X) : 93.6; reliever
MLB Career: 61 IP, 4.87 ERA, 1.508 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 1.62 K/BB, 5.52 FIP, 4.12 xFIP
MiLB Career: 313 IP, 3.65 ERA, 1.310 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 2.06 K/BB
2012 Winter(DWL): 21.1 IP, 2.11 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 3 BB, 16K

Aaron Thompson LHP, 25, 2011 MLB Average FB (PitchF/X) : 88.1; starter/reliever
MLB Career: 7.2 IP, 7.04 ERA, 2.478 WHIP, 1.2 K/9, 0.17 K/BB, 8.50 FIP, 7.08 xFIP
MiLB Career: 783 IP, 4.37 ERA, 1.483 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 2.15 K/BB
2012 Winter (DWL): 21.2 IP, 6.10 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 4 BB, 3 K

Daryl Thompson RHP, 26, 2011 MLB Average FB (PitchF/X) : 91.2; starter/reliever
MLB Career: 17.1 IP, 8.31 ERA, 2.192 WHIP, 3.1 K/9, 0.50 K/BB, 6.92 FIP, 6.63 xFIP
MiLB Career: 711.1 IP, 3.73 ERA, 1.247 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 2.96 K/BB
2012 Winter: N/A

Esmerling Vasquez RHP, 28, 2011 MLB Average FB (PitchF/X) : 93.4; reliever
MLB Career: 137 IP, 4.66 ERA, 1.496 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 1.50 K/BB, 4.50 FIP, 4.90 xFIP
MiLB Career: 512.1 IP, 4.55 ERA, 1.440 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 1.73 K/BB
2012 Winter (DWL): 9 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 7 BB, 9 K

P.J. Walters RHP, 27, 2011 MLB Average FB (PitchF/X) : 88.8; starter/reliever
MLB Career: 51 IP, 7.24 ERA, 1.529 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 1.82 K/BB, 5.86 FIP, 4.40 xFIP
MiLB Career: 702 IP, 4.06 ERA, 1.345 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.73 K/BB
2012 Winter: N/A

Brendan Wise RHP, 26, 2011 MLB Average FB (PitchF/X) : N/A ; reliever
MLB Career: N/A
MiLB Career: 424.1 IP, 3.37 ERA, 1.317 WHIP, 4.8 K/9, 1.77 K/BB
2012 Winter (ABL): 4 IP, 0 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3 BB, 2 K

So this is how it looks on paper... Who has a chance to make the team?

Clearly it will depend on spring training performance. With Terry Ryan mentioning Anthony Swarzak repeatedly during the last a couple of days as someone who now has to "step it", I suspect that Swarzak will be used later in ball games and not be the long man emergency starter he has been the past few seasons. So one of the starters in the group would need to replace him in that capacity. My pick is Terry Doyle because he is a rule 5 pick and has to be returned to the White Sox (or, very unlikely workout a trade for him) if he does not make the 25-man roster.

This leaves 2 spots. Swarzak's fastball average 92 mph last season, so ideally the Twins will have at least another righty who is throwing fast. Lester Oliveros(93.9 mph average FB 2011), Luis Perdomo (93.6 mph average FB 2011), Esmerling Vasquez (93.4 mph average FB 2011), Alex Burnett (93.4 mph average FB 2011), Jeff Gray (92.9 mph average FB 2011) will fight for at least one of these 2 spots. It is hard to tell who will win the battle, but Oliveros, Perdomo and Vasquez pitched in the winter leagues so they are a bit ahead of the competition early in the camp. Oliveros and Burnett are before their primes at 24 years old. Perdomo and Vasquez are at their primes at 28 and Gray is at the late part of his prime at 30. Vasquez (137 IP), Burnett (98.1 IP) and Gray (88.2 IP) have the most MLB experience. Oliveros and Perdomo miss the most bats. It is very hard to tell, but on paper, Burnett and Oliveros have the highest chance of being the two who make the team.

Any one else has any possibilities to make the team? I think that everyone on the list will be given a good look. Jason Bulger and Jared Burton are veteran arms. Carlos Gutierrez has developed a cutter and has always thought of having high potential. Jeff Manship has made the trip north twice from Spring Training. Kyle Waldrop ended the season with the Twins and a lot in the organization like his ground ball throwing abilities. Phil Dumatrait, even though his performance in 2011 was mediocre, was re-signed and praise through out 2011 by Ron Gardenhire.

It will all play on the spring training fields and the stadiums as well and the player who will step up and take that opportunity will be the ones who will go up to Baltimore with the team in April