The Twins 40-man roster Part 2: Who should be protected from the Rule 5 Draft

The first segment of this series was dedicated to cleaning up the Twins' existing 40-man roster, assuming that the new management will do the right thing and go for a full rebuild.  This second segment, further adjusts the roster by adding players to protect from the draft, and maybe subtracting some of the players on the derived roster.  As a bonus, I will be listing additional Twins minor leaguers who do not need to be protected for the Rule 5 draft, but might merit consideration for a spot on the roster.  This list will give a good overview of the high level minor league talent available currently in the Twins' organization.  I will not proposed to add anyone who does not need to be added on the 40-man roster right now, eg. Steven Gonsalves, Jake Reed etc, but instead, the Twins should invite them as non-roster players to the 2017 Spring Training.  If they win a job there, they should merit a roster spot, but the Twins would need much roster flexibility this off-season.

Here is the 24 man roster, after the clean up.  Noted that if Perkins is moved to the 60-day disabled list, the roster would stand at 23, allowing up to 17 openings:

Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (RHSP)
Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 (C)
J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RHRP)
Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RHRP)
Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (RHSP)
Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989 (IF)
Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RHRP)
Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RHRP)
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 (1B/DH)
Trevor May 9/23/1989 (RHSP)
Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (LHSP)
Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (LHRP)
John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 (C)
Byungho Park 7/10/1986 (1B/DH)
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (LHRP) (*)
Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (LHRP)
Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (LHRP)
Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B/DH)
Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)

Clearly the weakest lings on the roster are the two borderline age-wise position players, Catcher Juan Centeno, and utility infielder Eduardo Escobar.  In addition, Pat Light is the weakest relief pitcher, so borderline players would be compared to these three because they will be fighting for their spots.

Here are the Rule 5 Draft-eligible Position players, by position:

Catchers: 

Kevin Garcia, 9/17/1992, A/A+, 2016: .249/.302/.323, career: .252/.321/.315
Mitch Garver, 1/1/1991, AAA/AA, 2016: .270/.342/.422, career: .267/.359/.406 (*)
Rainis Silva, 3/20/1996 A, 2016: .230/.297/.254, career: .238/.295/.293
Stuart Turner, 12/27/1991, AA, 2016: .239/.322/.363, career: .241/.325/.352

Clearly Mitch Garver should be on the roster, since he will be fighting for a starting job in 2017.  Rainis Silva's glove is the best in the organization at the Catcher position right now, but his bat stinks, and unless that improves (and there is a lot of time, he just turned 20,) there is no risk of losing him.  I do not see Kevin Garcia being selected.  Whether adding Stuart Turner on the roster, is a toss-up.  His bat does not play in the majors, but his glove might.  Which brings the question: who should be on the roster, Turner or Centeno?  I think that Centeno's lefty bat that was not unrespectable in the majors wins here, but it is a close call.  It might be an academic question because the Twins are in dire need of a young good catcher, and if they obtain him this off-season will take the spot now reserved for Centeno.

Additions:  Garver

Infielders: 

Niko Goodrum, 2/28/1992, A+/AA, 2016: .275/.352/.464, career: .247/.339/.368
Levi Michael 2/9/1991, AA, 2016: .215/.293/.291, career: .250/.341/.343
Amaurys Minier, 1/20/1996, RK+, 2016: .222/.318/.449, career: .233/.321/.422
Rafael Valera, 8/25/1994, A, 2016: .261/.366/.409, career: .260/.380/.333
Engelb Vielma, 6/22/1994, A+/AA, 2016: .265/.344/.310, career: .264/.327/.309  
Ryan Walker, 3/26/1992, A+/AA, 2016: .271/.347/.345, career:  .262/.324/.321

Levi Michael had a terrible season after two strong ones, and I am not sure whether he is even in the Twins' plans right now that the administration that picked him in the first round is extinct.  I cannot see Valera or Walker get selected,  I think that Niko's Goodrum's career year and positional versatility (can play both positions on the left side of the infield, and can sub for both Sano and Polanco, plus Centerfield) as well as Engelb Vielma's standout glove and improved to respectability bat, will entice teams and could help the Twins in the future.  As a matter of fact, either would be better as a utility player for the 2017 Twins than Eduardo Escobar. Both in, Escobar traded/non-tendered.  The last player in this list is a wild card.  Amaurys Minier has had superstar potential but been plagued by injuries and inconsistencies.  Has not played above Elizabethton, but I am so afraid that someone could pull a Johan Santana on the Twins and pick him.  Got to protect him for at least another year.

Additions: Goodrum, Minier, Vielma
Subtractions: Escobar

Outfielders:

Edgar Corcino 6/7/1992, AA/A+ 2016: .273/.337/.420, career:  .245/.316/.368
JJ Fernandez, 3/30/1994, A, 2016: .225/.293/.363, career: .239/.293/.363
Zach Granite, 9/17/1992, AA, 2016: .295/.347/.382 (56/70 SB), career: .282/.349/.354 (*)
Max Murphy, 11/17/1992, A/A+, 2016: .236/.289/.358, career: .252/.329/.411
Travis Harrison, 10/17/1992, AA, 2016: .230/.338/.339, career: .254/.360/.380
Daniel Palka, 10/28/1991, AA/AAA, 2016: .254/.327/.521, career: .268/.346/.509 (*)

I think that what I wrote previously regardless Levi Michael, applies to Travis Harrison as well.  This might be his last chance in the Twins' organization.  Fernandez and Murphy are not close to being MLB-ready or selected in the draft.  Corcino is a better player than both, but still ways away.  This leaves the player whom the Twins named minor league player of the year, Zach Granite, and the player they should had named, Daniel Palka.  They both should be protected and added on the 40-man roster.  Palka will fight (or push back to second base) Eduardo Rosario for a corner outfielder job and Zach Granite and his 56 stolen bases might make the best 4th outfielder, pinch runner combination the Twins have had for years.

Additions: Granite, Palka

Notable non-Rule 5 Draft-eligible at A+ and above position players:

Nick Gordon (SS) 10/24/1995, A+, 2016: .291/.335/.386, career: .285/.335/.371
LaMonte Wade (OF) 1/1/1994, A/A+, 2016: .293/.402/.438, career: .297/.409/.459

Both should be invited to the 2017 Spring Training and given the ability to win an MLB job, but they should not be added on the roster unless they need to.

Rule 5 Draft-eligible Pitchers: 

Starters:

Ryan Eades (R), 12/15/1991, AA, 2016: 4.61 ERA, 1.376 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 career:  4.33 ERA, 1.379 WHIP, 6.7 K/9
Felix Jorge.(R) 1/2/1994, A+/AA, 2016: 2.69 ERA, 1.088 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 career:  3.17 ERA, 1.164  WHIP, 7.4 K/9
Aaron Slegers, (R) 9/4/1992, AA,  2016: 3.41 ERA, 1.259 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 career:  3.54 ERA, 1.178 WHIP, 6.5 K/9
Fernando Romero, (R) 12/24/1994, A/A+, 2016: 2.09 ERA, 0.897 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 career:  2.37 ERA, 1.032 WHIP, 8.8 K/9
Lewis Thorpe, (L), 11/23/1995. lost 2015 and 2016 with Tommy John surgery & other ailments. 2012-2014:  2.96 ERA, 1.176 WHIP, 11.2 K/9
Jason Wheeler (L), 10/27/1990, AAA/AA, 2016: 3.30 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 career:  3.66 ERA, 1.325 WHIP, 6.4 K/9

Ryan Eades had a below average season as a starter and I expect him to make the transition to the pen this season, which will be his best opportunity to get to the majors.  Felix Jorge and Fernando Romero are just too good not to add.  Both, especially Romero, have outside chances of wining a position in the Twins' rotation this spring.  They are both no-brainer additions.  Lewis Thorpe was a phenomenal prospect who lost 2 seasons in a row.  Is he back?  Only the Twins know.  I just do not see a chance for anyone to select him, but if the Twins think there is, I can see him add him on the roster.  I won't.  Slegers is an intriguing possibility:  He has been above average his career with above average stuff, but has shown nothing eye opening, in both raw stuff and results. Very intriguing conversion to a reliever who might get a mid to high 90s fastball from this frame.  Should the Twins add him on the roster and do it?  In the expense of Pat Light or any of the other relievers who need protection?  I don't think so. Regardless whether he is selected or not, he should be in a bullpen next season.   This leaves us to Jason Wheeler whom the Twins protected in 2015, unprotected in 2016, and snubbed him for a call up, in a year he was pitching well in both AA and AAA, for the likes of Anrew Albers.  Terrible decision, but I hope that the change in the administration does the right thing and protects him, if for not other reason, because he is lefty and successful and he is second, after Adalberto Mejia, in the Twins LHSP depth chart.  This might change during the off-season if the Twins acquire a LHSP or two better than Mejia, and they should target that.  But until then, Wheeler is in, at least for 2017 to show what he can do.

Additions: Jorge, Romero, Wheeler

Relievers:

Luke Bard (R) 11/13/1990, A+/AA, 2016: 3.74 ERA, 1.400 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 career:  3.23 ERA, 1.310 WHIP, 7.9 K/9
DJ Baxendale (R), 12/8/1990, As a RP only: AAA 2016: 1.29 ERA, 1.029 WHIP, 10.3 K/9
Omar Bencomo (R) 2/10/1989, AA/AAA, 2016: 3.74 ERA, 1.352 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, career:  3.77 ERA, 1.271 WHIP, 6.7 K/9
Cameron Booser (L), 5/4/1992, A/A+, 2016: 8.53 ERA, 2.013 WHIP, 12.1 K/9, career:  4.32 ERA, 1.571 WHIP, 12.1 K/9
Alan Busenitz (R) 8/22/1990, AA/AAA, 2016: 3.54 ERA, 1.262 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 career:  3.55 ERA, 1.320 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 (might protect him for political reasons - he came in the Meyer/Nolasco trade, but there are better players)
C.K. Irby, (R), 5/6/1992, A, 2016: 2.42 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 career:  3.56 ERA, 1.264 WHIP, 11.5 K/9
Zack Jones (R), 12/4/1990, AA/AAA, 2016: 3.47 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, 12.4 K/9 career:  2.97 ERA, 1.218 WHIP, 12.7 K/9
Brandon Peterson, (R), 9/23/1991, A+/AA, 2016: 3.30 ERA, 1.150 WHIP, 11.2 K/9 career:  2.41 ERA, 1.109 WHIP, 12.1 K/9
Brian Gilbert, (R), 8/9/1992, A+, 2016: 5.53 ERA, 2.024 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, career: 3.66 ERA, 1.439 WHIP, 6.6 K/9
Williams Ramirez, (R), 8/8/1992, A, 2016: 2.62 ERA, 1.055 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, career:  1.97 ERA, 1.038 WHIP, 10.1 K/9
Todd Van Steensel (R), 1/14/1991, A+/AA, 2016: 3.88 ERA, 1.324 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, career:  3.42 ERA, 1.291 WHIP, 9.7 K/9

This is a long list of 11 relievers, with only one of them (Booser) a lefty.  Booser had a disappointing season in both High A and A and will not be selected.  The same is true for Brian Gilbert. Bencomo is a last option type of player, and will not be selected. Van Steensel's season was not strong enough to get consideration.  C.K. Irby's was, however it was not at a high enough level.  The same for Williams Ramirez, but watch out if these two repeat their results in high A and/or AA in 2017.  Which brings us to Luke Bard, the Twins' former 1st round pick, who is about to turn 26, and had an average season, but has not been the same after losing 2014 recovering from shoulder surgery.  I think that this will be his last chance to prove that he belongs in the prospect conversation and I will not be surprised if it is not in the Twins' organization.  Alan Busenitz is an interesting case.  He pitched in AA and AAA with average results, that reflect the rest of his minor league career, but the Twins might protect him for political reasons, since he was acquired in the Alex Meyer, Ricky Nolasco trade that also brought Hector Santiago to the Twins.  Maybe the new administration will let the past go and would not protect him.  I wouldn't.  However, I would protect the most successful reliever in the Twins' minor league system, DJ Baxendale, who after transitioning to that role for Rochester upon his promotion from Chatanooga  excelled.  This leaves us two pitchers who might depart via the draft, and one last off-season:  Zach Jones and Brandon Peterson.  Got to add Pat Light to the conversation and it is two out of three.  I'd picke Jones and Light, risking Peterson's departure, mainly because he has played in more junior levels (only 16 games in AA) and might deemed less ready.  But it is a risk.

Additions: Baxendale, Jones.

Notable non-Rule 5 Draft-eligible at A+ and above:

Starters:

Stephen Gonsalves (L) 7/8/1994 A+/AA, 2016: 2.06 ERA, 1.021 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 career:  2.13 ERA, 1.072 WHIP, 9.7 K/9
Tyler Jay (L) 4/19/1994 A+/AA, 2016: 3.33 ERA, 1.231 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 career:  3.44 ERA, 1.265 WHIP, 8.7 K/9
Kohl Stewart (R), 10/7/1994, A+/AA,  2016: 2.88 ERA, 1.343 WHIP, 5.7 K/9 career:  2.84 ERA, 1.284 WHIP, 5.9 K/9

Relievers:

Nick Burdi (R), 1/19/1993, AA, 2016: shut down after 3 games, career: 3.72 ERA, 1.322 WHIP, 12.6 K/9
Trevor Hildenberger (R), 12/15/1990, AA/A+, 2016: 0.75 ERA, 0.792 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 career:  1.47 ERA, 0.823 WHIP, 10.5 K/9
Jake Reed (R), 9/29/1992, AAA/AA,  2016: 3.57 ERA, 1.175 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 career:  3.47 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, 8.8 K/9
Michael Theophanopoulos (L), 8/5/1992, A/A+,  2016: 2.20 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 career:  3.29 ERA, 1.351 WHIP, 10.5 K/9

As with the position players, all of the above, in addition to several Rule 5-eligible players who will remain with the Twins but not added to the roster, and hopefully several new young good players should be invited to the Twins 2017 Spring Training.

This leaves the modified Twins 40-man roster with 34 (33 (*) if Perkins is on the 60-day DL) spots and 6 (or 7) openings, which are enough for the Twins to be flexible in targeting acquisitions in trades and potentially shopping the Rule 5 draft and the waiver wire (and a reminder that they have the right of first refusal, because of the worst record in the majors, for both.)  Here is the modified roster:

DJ Baxendale 12/8/1990 (RHRP)
Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (RHSP)
Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 (C)
J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RHRP)
Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RHRP)
Mitch Garver, 1/1/1991 (C)
Zach Granite, 9/17/1992 (OF)
Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (RHSP)
Zack Jones 12/4/1990 (RHRP)
Felix Jorge  1/2/1994 (RHSP)
Niko Goodrum, 2/28/1992 (SS/3B/CF)
Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RHRP)
Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RHRP)
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 (1B/DH)
Trevor May 9/23/1989 (RHSP)
Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (LHSP)
Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (LHRP)
Amaurys Minier, 1/20/1996 (1B/OF)
John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 (C)
Daniel Palka, 10/28/1991 (OF)
Byungho Park 7/10/1986 (1B/DH)
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (LHRP) (*)
Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (LHRP)
Fernando Romero 12/24/1994(RHSP)
Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (LHRP)
Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B/DH)
Engelb Vielma, 6/22/1994 (SS)
Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)
Jason Wheeler 10/27/1990 (LHSP)


Next installment will be a critical view of the roster, assessing weaknesses and looking for potential positions that the Twins should target this off-season.

The Twins 40-man roster Part 1: Who should stay and who should go

After a historically bad season that resulted in the worst record of the Franchise in its current location, Twins' about to be minted (as soon as Cleveland's season is over) new chief baseball officer, Derek Falvey, will have his hands full in turning this team around.  I hope that he has enough flexibility to do a true rebuild.  And a true rebuild is to find enough young talented players that will reach their primes together, and then supplemented by star veterans to close holes as necessary, will compete for a long time.

Looking at the Twins' young talent and how their 40-man roster for 2017 should be built, young is an operating word.  Here is the current Twins' 40-man roster by age groups:  a. Players who will be 26 and younger on 1/1/2017 who should be part of the rebuilt; b. players who will be 28 or older who really do not belong in a rebuilding team, since they will be past their primes when the new Twins' core will reach their primes, and; c. players who are in-between.  The 27 year olds:

 The listing is alphabetical with birthdays

Andrew Albers 10/6/1985
James Beresford 1/19/1989
Jose Berrios 5/27/1994
Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988
Byron Buxton 12/18/1993
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989
J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990
Pat Dean 5/25/1989
Brian Dozier 5/15/1987
Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990
Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989
Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987
Robbie Grossman 9/16/1989
Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (60-day DL)
Max Kepler 2/10/1993
Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984
Yorman Landa 6/11/1994
Pat Light 3/29/1991
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983
Trevor May 9/23/1989
Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993
Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991
Tommy Milone 2/16/1987
John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991
Ryan O'Rourke 4/30/1988
Byungho Park 7/10/1986
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983  (60-day DL)
Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986
Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988
Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993
Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990
Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991
Randy Rosario 5/18/1994
Ervin Santana 12/12/1982
Hector Santiago 12/16/1987
Miguel Sano 5/11/1993
Logan Schafer 9/8/1986
Kurt Suzuki 10/4/1983
Michael Tonkin 11/19/1989
Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990
Adam Walker 10/18/1991
Alex Wimmers 11/1/1988


These 42 players sorted in the 3 age groups:

Young enough:

Jose Berrios 5/27/1994  
Byron Buxton 12/18/1993
J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990
Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990
Max Kepler 2/10/1993
Yorman Landa 6/11/1994
Pat Light 3/29/1991
Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993
Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991
John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991
Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993
Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990
Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991
Randy Rosario 5/18/1994
Miguel Sano 5/11/1993
Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990
Adam Walker 10/18/1991

Too old:

Andrew Albers 10/6/1985
Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988
Brian Dozier 5/15/1987
Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987
Phil Hughes 6/24/86
Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983
Tommy Milone 2/16/1987
Ryan O'Rourke 4/30/1988
Byungho Park 7/10/1986
Glen Perkins 3/2/83
Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986
Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988
Ervin Santana 12/12/1982
Hector Santiago 12/16/1987
Logan Schafer 9/8/1986
Kurt Suzuki 10/4/1983
Alex Wimmers 11/1/1988

In between: 

James Beresford 1/19/1989
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989
Pat Dean 5/25/1989
Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989
Robbie Grossman 9/16/1989
Trevor May 9/23/1989
Michael Tonkin 11/19/1989


Let's look at the in between and see who could potentially offer value:

James Beresford 1/19/1989
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989
Pat Dean 5/25/1989
Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989
Robbie Grossman 9/16/1989
Trevor May 9/23/1989
Michael Tonkin 11/19/1989

Centeno, Escobar, and May can provide some value.  Centeno who might be the weakest of the 3, has options, so he does not preclude the team . So they stay.  Beresford, Dean, Grossman, and Tonkin are designated for assignment.

New Keeper list (with positions) :

Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (SP)  
Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 (C)
J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RP)
Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RP)
Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989 (IF)
Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RP)
Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RP)
Trevor May 9/23/1989 (SP)
Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (SP)
Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (RP)
John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 (C)
Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (RP)
Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (RP)
Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B)
Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)

Up to 20 total and most positions of the diamond taken care off.

Let's have a close look to the ones who are too old to belong to a rebuilding team, look into their contract situation, and add potential value to a trade partner:

Andrew Albers 10/6/1985  - no value
Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988  - maybe some value, one option left
Brian Dozier 5/15/1987 - signed until 2018, $15M owed, career season, strong value
Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987 - arbitration eligible, some value
Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 - signed until 2019, $39.6M owed, major surgery
Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984 - arbitration eligible, some value
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 - signed until 2018, $46M owed, declining
Tommy Milone 2/16/1987 - abitration eligible, no value
Ryan O'Rourke 4/30/1988 - no value
Byungho Park 7/10/1986 - signed until 2019, $9.3M owed, major investment
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 - signed until 2017, $7.2M owed
Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986 - arbitration eligible, some value
Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988 - arbitration eligible, some value
Ervin Santana 12/12/1982 - signed until 2018 + option, $28M owed, close to career season, strong value
Hector Santiago 12/16/1987 - arbitration eligible, medium value
Logan Schafer 9/8/1986  - no value
Kurt Suzuki 10/4/1983 - free agent
Alex Wimmers 11/1/1988  - no value

The ones who do not have value, should go.  Suzuki will depart as a free agent, Albers, O'Rourke, Schafer, and Wimmers are designated for assignment, Milone is not offered arbitration.  The list trims to:


Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988  - maybe some value, one option left
Brian Dozier 5/15/1987 - signed until 2018, $15M owed, career season, strong value
Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987 - arbitration eligible, some value
Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 - signed until 2019, $39.6M owed, major surgery
Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984 - arbitration eligible, some value
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 - signed until 2018, $46M owed, declining
Byungho Park 7/10/1986 - signed until 2019, $9.3M owed, major investment
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 - signed until 2017, $7.2M owed, might not pitch again
Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986 - arbitration eligible, some value
Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988 - arbitration eligible, some value
Ervin Santana 12/12/1982 - signed until 2018 + option, $28M owed, close to career season, strong value
Hector Santiago 12/16/1987 - arbitration eligible, medium value

The 3 players with most value, Ervin Santana, Brian Dozier, and Hector Santiago should be traded, and the Twins will receive value back, as there will be takers.  The remaining players are in two lists: the arbitration-eligible, and team control players with some value, and the under contract with major questionmarks.  The players in those 2 lists represent 2 opposite sides of the same coin

The arbitration, and team control eligible players:

Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988  - maybe some value, one option left
Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987 - arbitration eligible, some value
Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984 - arbitration eligible, some value
Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986 - arbitration eligible, some value
Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988 - arbitration eligible, some value

The Twins should try to trade these players and package them with Dozier, Santana, and Santiago to receive better value.  If no team values them enough to trade for them, the Twins should let them go.  So trade or non-tendering (of DFA in Bosher's situation,)  all 5 will not be Twins in 2017.

Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 - signed until 2019, $39.6M owed, major surgery
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 - signed until 2018, $46M owed, declining
Byungho Park 7/10/1986 - signed until 2019, $9.3M owed,+ $13M investment
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 - signed until 2017, $7.2M owed, might not pitch again

The Twins are stuck with these 4 players.  These contracts and their injury or aging situations make them undesirable for any team.  The best case scenario for the Twins is that they all return healthy in 2017, start the season with the team and build enough value to be tradeable during the season.  Perkins will likely not be ready and the Twins have the luxury to add him to the 60-day DL in the beginning of the reason and bring him back slowly if healthy though a series of minor league rehabs, so there is some flexibility there.

So from today's 40-man roster, only the following 24 players (and potentially 23 effectively with a Perkins to the 60-day DL (*) senario) will be there this off-season:

Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (SP)  
Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 (C)
J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RP)
Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RP)
Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (SP)
Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989 (IF)
Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RP)
Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RP)
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 (1B/DH)
Trevor May 9/23/1989 (SP)
Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (SP)
Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (RP)
John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 (C)
Byungho Park 7/10/1986 (1B/DH)
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (RP) (*)
Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (RP)
Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (RP)
Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B/DH)
Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)

This would allow the Twins 16 spots to add several of their prospects for 2017 auditions as well as a good flexibility to include several trade returns.  This list is light on starting pitchers , but the assumption is that they will be targeted in trades and that their number will get supplemented by one or more of the existing prospects in the system.  One note. It is obvious that the Twins are heavy on the DH position.  Park, Mauer, and Vargas can rotate in the first base and DH role, with the ability to have either both lefties or righties, with Vargas being an switch hitter, in a platoon situation, depending on opposing pitchers.  Which means that Adam Walker should be available in a trade at this point.

In the next article of this series will look at who of the existing prospects should move in the 40-man roster to either protect them from the draft or to supplement the MLB-level talent.

Toby Gardenhire has been back with the Twins and nobody knew

After the dearly departed Twins' former General Manager, Terry Ryan, re-hired the Twins' former manager, Ron Gardenhire, who could not find work with any other MLB team, recent news article suggest that as soon as the father was hired, his son, Toby Gardenhire, who has a career .232/.292/.274  slash line in 7 seasons as a Twins' minor leaguer whose best skill was the fact that was Ron Garenhire's son, was also hired by the Twins in 2016.

A hot off the press report by the Dunn County News, says that after school was over for the University of Wisconsin baseball head coach, he was hired by the Twins for the summer as a minor league coach.  From that article:

This summer, Gardenhire had the opportunity to coach for the Minnesota Twins Baseball Club as a hitting and third base coach for the Golf Coast League (GCL) Twins in Fort Myers, Fla.“They called me and asked if I wanted another coaching opportunity,” Gardenhire said. “I said yes and it worked out.”

Not sure whether Terry Ryan, or his interim successor Rob Anthony were the final approvers of the hire, (it was likely Ryan, since college programs end before he was fired,) but the fact that it was never announced is very disappointing.   Not to mention the fact that the Twins looked at another insider (with very low credentials) without going outside the organization looking for excellence.  The hope is that the new Front Office stops running the Twins like a Country Club.

Every single team that made the post season had fromer Twins players help them get there. 18 of them. Let's count them

Boston (David Ortiz, Fernando Abad)
Baltimore (JJ Hardy, Vance Worley, Brian Duensing,)
Toronto (Chris Colabello, R.A Dickey, Fransisco Liriano, Scott Diamond)
Cleveland (Jeff Manship)
Texas (Carlos Gomez)
Wasington (Wilson Ramos, Ben Revere)
Mets (Rene Rivera)
Chicago Cubs (Joe Nathan)
LA Dodgers (Casey Fien)
San Fransisco (Denard Span, Eduardo Nunez, Joe Nathan.)

Joe Nathan played for 2 teams.

There is a single reason for the Twins record loss season

The Twins seemed to turn the corner in 2015 and with a similar, if not improved because the young players would have another year of experience, team, 2016 was, at least on paper, supposed to be better than the 83 win 2015 team.

What happened?

One single event:  The Twins re-hired Ron Gardenhire.   The Gardenhire-less team was the only team with a winning record the past 7 seasons, and likely because the bad karma of the manager of the millennium was not around.

The new Twins President of Baseball Operations, could reverse the curse, by hitting it at the root:

Re-firing Ron Gardenhire.

In Honor of the Twins losing streak: Eleven Today

Eleven Today: By John Carter Brown:

Roses are red

Violets are blue

Today you're eleven

That's nine add on two.

Now ten is behind you

And twelve is to come

When riding your bike

Don't fall on your bum.

A six and a five

Make eleven as well

Your maths are so good 

This I don't need to tell.

Roses are red

Violets are blue

Legs are eleven

But you've only TWO! 

Eleven is better

Than ten any day

That's what I think

And I'm going to say: 

'Roses are red

Violets are blue, 

Eleven is lovely

And so too are you.'

5 Days, 5 Twins waiver deadline trades: Day 5: Closing this series

The waiver trade activity is about to pick up.  I am starting a new series dealing with potential Twins' trades during this period, but with a bit of outside the box thinking.   The rules around waiver trades are a bit complicated, so if you have not read the Waiver Trade Primer yet, feel free to do it.

This week I will be writing about 5 trades the Twins should do and they should seek out, because they make sense and it is fun to think a bit outside the box.

Day 5: Closing this series

When the Twins signed Brandon Kintzler, among the rest of the parading minor league free agents that Terry Ryan did, in nobody's wildest dreams (or nightmares) the possibility of Brandon Kintzler becoming not even the Twins', but the Red Wings' closer was thought as remotely valid.  But happenstance is stranger than dreams, and Brandon Kintzler is the Twins closer today.  And if this is not enough, to say "sell high", the 1.82 ERA, 0.984 WHIP, and 12/13 saves converted (despite a close to his career average 3.55 FIP, .260 BABIP, and celebrating his 32nd birthday earlier this month,) are more than enough to scream sell high.

There is no way that a rational Front Office (something that the Twins have to see since the MacPhail times, and hopefully will have this off-season) would keep Brandon Kintzer, who is under team control and arbitration-eligible for 2 more seasons, with the team at expensive prices for those two seasons, based on these 2 months of 2017.   However, a team that is competing right now, can use a hot arm like his, betting that it will continue and will be enough to bump them to the post-season.

Who will that team be?  The team that has the worst record among the post-season competitors (thus waiver claim priority,) is just 3 games away from the second wild card spot, has 9 games to play this season against our very own Minnesota Twins, and its bullpen took a couple of huge hits this season:  The defending World Champions Kansas City Royals who just found themselves contending again.

What will it take?  It will not come cheap, but it will not break the bank.  A fair return would be the Royals' 2015 4th round pick, 19 year old LHSP, Garrett Davila. Mid-90 fastball lefties do not grow on trees, but Davila has had durability issues and might become a reliever.  Still, he is a gamble and a project, something that the Twins afford to take on, and the Royals would gladly have someone who will help them make this post-season (because they are a very good post-season team) than a project.

So, after Michael Tonkin was sent to the Rangers, after Suzuki traded to the Orioles,  Grossman to the Astros, and Plouffe to the Indians, this imaginary 5 day trading spree closes with the Twins' closer by happenstance, Brandon Kintzler, to the Royals for Garrett Davila.

5 Days, 5 Twins waiver deadline trades: Day 4: Fits to a T

The waiver trade activity is about to pick up.  I am starting a new series dealing with potential Twins' trades during this period, but with a bit of outside the box thinking.   The rules around waiver trades are a bit complicated, so if you have not read the Waiver Trade Primer yet, feel free to do it.

This week I will be writing about 5 trades the Twins should do and they should seek out, because they make sense and it is fun to think a bit outside the box.

Day 4: Fits to a T

From the 30,000 feet view, the team with the best record in the AL and second best to the Cubs in the majors, the Texas Rangers, has few weaknesses.  Looking closer, they have a glaring weakness:  The Twins have been criticized (and for a good reason) about pitching to contact.  The Rangers, along with the Angels, are the only 2 teams in the majors with K/9 rates less than the Twins, and the Rangers are on the bottom on the category with just 6.9 K/9.  The Twins for comparison have 7.4 K/9.   And strikeouts are nowhere more important than the bullpen.  And if the Rangers want to go far in the postseason, they better fix it.

Enter the Twins leader (among active pitchers, May has more, but is on the DL) in K/9 with 10.4 (the highest in his career in the majors,) 26-year old Michael Tonkin.  Tonkin is under team control for 5 more years and not arbitration-eligible for 2 more season, so apparently he can be an asset for the Twins.  On the other hand, there is a logjam of young RHRP better than Tonkin:  Chargois, Pressly (and even possibly Duffey,  Hughes and the aforementioned May; all 3 could also be considered for the rotation) at the MLB-level, with Burdi, Hildenberger, Baxendale, Wimmers, Cederoth and even Reed and Jones knocking on the door.  So the Twins have to sell high.

And Tonkin has some value to a team like the Rangers, because it fixes an immediate problem and potentially for some time, because of the team control.  So it will take more than someone with just a heartbeat to get him.  But it will not take a top prospect, regardless how inflated prices for relievers are.  Their 29th best prospect according to mlb.com, the 21-year old Dominican RHSP, Pedro Payano, will be a great fit.  Very intriguing prospect:  He was born in New York, an grew up in the Dominican and is one of the few players who made it to the States after 4 full seasons in the DSL.  Currently in the short season A league, has a great changeup, and a good fastball and hammer curve and he is dominating at that level, but he is older for the level and there are question marks about how he will play when he moves higher.  A pretty fair return.

So Mr Tonkin will wear a ballcap with his last name's initial, while the Twins will get a player whose last name Bert Blyleven will pronounce as "Pavano".

Michael Tonkin to the Rangers for Pedro Payano, is the fourth Twins' trade that should happen, after Suzuki traded to the Orioles,  Grossman to the Astros, and Plouffe to the Indians.

5 Days, 5 Twins waiver deadline trades: Day 3: Plouffe! Goes the weasel.

The waiver trade activity is about to pick up.  I am starting a new series dealing with potential Twins' trades during this period, but with a bit of outside the box thinking.   The rules around waiver trades are a bit complicated, so if you have not read the Waiver Trade Primer yet, feel free to do it.

This week I will be writing about 5 trades the Twins should do and they should seek out, because they make sense and it is fun to think a bit outside the box.

Day 3: Plouffe! Goes the weasel.

Arguably, Trevor Plouffe is not the poster-boy of a waiver trade, but the poster-boy of non-tendering: 

He is in the middle of the worst season of his MLB career hitting .245/.279/.382, while getting paid a robust $7.25 M salary, has another year of team control via arbitration that will likely rise his salary in 2017 and he is blocking one of the budding young superstars in the game.  So why should anyone trade for him, and what kind of value does he bring on the table?

To Plouffe's benefit, he has been nursing core muscle injuries all season that have been impacting his swing and when healthy he has been producing at his regular clip.  Also, when healthy his defense is on the top third of the league's third basemen.  Plus he can play a pretty good first base if needed.  All you need is to find a team that is desperate enough and is a good fit.   There are 2 of those, in the Twins' own division, but the one with the second best record in the AL, the league leading Cleveland Indians are the more desperate one:  Their starting third baseman is a double-headed beast of LF Jose Ramirez (who can hit and not field that great at 5'9", but when he plays third base, Abraham Almonde plays the OF who cannot hit) and no-hit/fair glove Michael Martinez.  Add the fact that the Tribe has Michael Napoli whose knees can use rest this time of the season at first, and there might be a match made in heaven here.

What would it take?  The Twins have no motivation of keeping Plouffe; as a matter of fact a rational Front Office will non-tender him this off-season.  A penny for a spool of thread, a penny for a needle. That’s the way the money goes, but it will take a bit more than that.  But it will definitely take another sell low type of guy.  And that would be 25 year old Cuban RHP Antonio Romero, who was signed in 2014 after 2 years of playing hiatus, was successful in 2015, but this season the wheels fell off having a cumulative 8.59 ERA, 1.964 WHIP, 6.1 BB/9, and 7.4 K/9 in high A and AA.

Sell low and hope high situation for both players.

I have no time to plead and pine
I have no time to wheedle
Kiss me quick, and then I'm gone
Plouffe! Goes the weasel

So Trevor Plouffe to the Indians for Antonio Romero, straight up, is the third Twins' trade that should happen, after Suzuki traded to the Orioles and Grossman to the Astros

5 Days, 5 Twins waiver deadline trades: Day 2: Homeward bound (sort of)

The waiver trade activity is about to pick up.  I am starting a new series dealing with potential Twins' trades during this period, but with a bit of outside the box thinking.   The rules around waiver trades are a bit complicated, so if you have not read the Waiver Trade Primer yet, feel free to do it. 

Today and the next 4 days (working days), will be writing about 5 trades the Twins should do and they should seek out, because they make sense and it is fun to think a bit outside the box.

Day 2: Homeward bound (sort of)

Robbie Grossman has been with the Houston Astros organization for 3 seasons before he was released after last season.  The Astros have lost Colby Rasmus to vertigo spells, have cut Carlos Gomez and have a catcher (Evan Gattis) who can maybe hit his weight, spiting time with a non-prospect (Jake Marisnick) who cannot hit his, between LF and DH.  They have a 23-year old Rookie (Teoscar Hernandez) manning center.

They do not only need Robbie Grossman, they need him desperately. And the fact that they have the worst record from any AL post-season contender means that they have a good opportunity to land him, since they have priority in waiver trade claims.

What would it take for the Twins to pull the trigger?  First of all they do not really have to trade Grossman, but with the emergency of Daniel Palka, they really do not need him.  Nice waiver wire pickup for the Twins and it is great that they turn him into a very young Catcher who really does not figure in Houston's plans:  The diminutive 21 year old Venezuelan Gabriel Bracamonte.   Bracamote is playing in short season A ball right now, moving up from Rookie ball (Greenville, in the Appalachian league, so the Twins had a chance to see him play) where he started this season and finished the last.  He is still a project, but has a couple things going on for him:  Very strong arm and great judgement of the strike zone as a hitter.  Has shown periodic flashes with the bat, which makes him a pretty intriguing prospect.  Small, but another small catcher (nicknamed Pudge) is hitting on the Hall of Fame's door...

So Robbie Grossman to the Astros for Gabriel Bracamonte, straight up, is the second Twins' trade that should happen, after Suzuki traded to the Orioles 

5 Days, 5 Twins waiver deadline trades: Day 1: Let's play catch

The waiver trade activity is about to pick up.  I am starting a new series dealing with potential Twins' trades during this period, but with a bit of outside the box thinking.   The rules around waiver trades are a bit complicated, so if you have not read the Waiver Trade Primer yet, feel free to do it.  

Today and the next 4 days (working days), will be writing about 5 trades the Twins should do and they should seek out, because they make sense and it is fun to think a bit outside the box.

Day 1: Let's play catch

Kurt Suzuki is a player who a. is pretty hot (since he picked that axe-handled bat) and b. is a free agent after this season, which make him getting traded a no-brainer.  As a matter of fact, if the Twins interim GM Rob Antony does not trade Kurt Suzuki, he should not have a job in the organization.  That's how much of a no-brainer this trade is.

Where is the best landing spot for Kurt Suzuki? 

5 Contending teams can use a catcher (including the losers in the Lucroy sweepstakes Cleveland and Mets) :  Houston, Detroit, Cleveland, Mets and Mystery Team.

The Mets are on the wrong side of the claim priority list.  Detroit will think that Saltalamacchia will be alright for them (and they will be right, he might be as good as Suzuki.) Houston will look at the 3-4 teams above them in the wild card race and might want to invest in other places.  So Cleveland will place a claim for Suzuki.  But will be intersected by Mystery Team, whose record is just a couple games worse than theirs, and will be the team that will be awarded that claim:

The Baltimore Orioles.

Matt Wieters, their All-Star catcher this season,  has been struggling of late, but his struggles are mainly against LHP (.561 OPS, vs. .737 OPS against RHPs and .693 overall.)   Suzuki and his .803 OPS against LHP and an occasional righty will be a huge improvement for a team that is half a game behind it's division lead and leading the AL wild-card race.  

So what would the Twins get as a return?  

Let's not be greedy here, and try to buy low.

1. Garrett Cleavinger LHRP, 22 years old, Orioles' 3rd round pick in 2015.  Closer for the Oregon Ducks. Major Control issues.  Mid 90s FB, above average curve, deceptive delivery, about 11 K/9, but still at A ball with so and so results, but improved control.  Just moved up to high A and not doing too well. And about 10th in the Orioles LHRP depth.  Done deal.

2. Cedric Mullins, Switch hitting CF. 21. Orioles 13th round pick in 2015. 5'8" with cleats on.  Throws left. Speedster.  Lots like a former Twins' first round pick, but much better arm, but he never really made the transition to the wood bat.  Good plate discipline.  Not in anyone's radar.

So here you have it.  Kurt Suzuki for Garrett Cleavinger and Cedric Mullins.  What says you?

MLB Waiver Trade Primer

It is this time of the year, and the waiver trade landscape is about to get hot again, the waiver situation is pretty complex and there are several misconceptions (eg. that there is a trade deadline of August 31,) so here is a MLB Waiver Trade  Primer:

- All players unless on the DL, can be put on trade waivers (and most are put through)

-Teams can chose to claim a player or not

-Claims award priority:

a. same league, team with worse record
b. other league team with worse record
(e.g for a Twins' player the best AL team, currently the Rangers, has priority in a claim over the worst NL team, currently the Braves, but the Marlins have priority over the Dodgers)

-Once a player is claimed (there is a 2 day from the claim time limit for these outcomes) :

a. His team can pull him back and keep him
b. Negotiate a trade with the claiming team
c. Let him go for nothing to the claiming team (and the claiming team pays his full salary)

-If a player is not claimed within 2 days after he is placed, the team can trade him to any other team (unless there is a no-trade clause 10/5 rights etc.)  through the regular season; however, players traded after August, cannot be part of a post-season roster (thus the source of the misconception for an August 31st deadline.)

-A team can put a player through waivers multiple times, but can pull him back only once.   So if a player was claimed by a team and then pulled back, if he is put on waivers again and gets claimed, the other team gets him for nothing (other than paying his full salary, ie. option c. above.)

Twins trade rumors and activity 7/30

Keeping track with the various Twins trade rumors to date, as well as their trade activty.  I will add to this on a daily basis, when news appear.   Hypothetical trades and "good fits" are not in the list, only reports of actual interest by a particular team for a particular player.  Another thing not listed will be negations by Twins' officials that they are not shopping anyone (like this one.)

This is the list of rumors up to 7/30:

The Twins are said to be shopping, Ricky Nolasco, Tommy Milone and Fernardo Abad, per Jerry Crasnick

The Texas Rangers are interested in Kurt Suzuki, per Jeff Passan.

Add the San Fransisco Giants in the list of  Eduardo Núñez' suitors, per Jon Heyman via Tyler Jennings, who were actually the team that received him, for LHP Adalberto Mejia, their number 5 prospect, according to Baseball America

There looks to be some action around Brandon Kintzler and Fernando Abad, per Jon Heyman

Eduardo Escobar is auditioning tonight, in request of un-named teams, per Mike Berardino

The Marlins, Orioles, Blue Jays, Pirates and Giants are the 5 teams that have the most talks about starting pitching, according to un-named seller team executives per Joel Sherman.  All 3 but the Jays and Giants have been scouting the Twins and the Twins have been scouting the Marlins recently.

The Twins interim manager Rob Antony has indicated that he will be looking for starting pitching as a return in a trade per Derek Wetmore.

Nunez, Kurt Suzuki, Fernando Abad and Brandon Kintzler are the names that other clubs have been calling the Twins about, per Ken Rosenthal.

An unnamed contenting club has shown interest in Kyle Gibson, but the Twins are only listening, per Mike Berardino.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, who are monitoring relievers, according to LaVelle E. Neal, were scouting the Twins game with Atlanta yesterday that Ervin Santana started and finished.   The Cubs and Pirates also scouted yesterday's Twins' game, per Darren Wolfson

For some reason the Twins are scouting the Florida Marlins, per LaVelle E. Neal,

The Florida Marlins and Baltimore Orioles had scouts in the Twins games in Fenway, started by Ricky Nolasco and Tommy Milone, per Darren Wolfson.

The Twins have talked to the Red Sox, about undisclosed player(s), but no matches were found, per Mike Berardino.

Twins trade rumors 7/29

Keeping track with the various Twins trade rumors to date.  I will add to this on a daily basis, when news appear.   Hypothetical trades and "good fits" are not in the list, only reports of actual interest by a particular team for a particular player.  Another thing not listed will be negations by Twins' officials that they are not shopping anyone (like this one.)

This is the list of rumors up to 7/29:

Add the San Fransisco Giants in the list of  Eduardo Núñez' suitors, per Jon Heyman via Tyler Jennings, who were actually the team that received him, for LHP Adalberto Mejia, their number 5 prospect, according to Baseball America

There looks to be some action around Brandon Kintzler and Fernando Abad, per Jon Heyman

Eduardo Escobar is auditioning tonight, in request of un-named teams, per Mike Berardino

The Marlins, Orioles, Blue Jays, Pirates and Giants are the 5 teams that have the most talks about starting pitching, according to un-named seller team executives per Joel Sherman.  All 3 but the Jays and Giants have been scouting the Twins and the Twins have been scouting the Marlins recently.

The Twins interim manager Rob Antony has indicated that he will be looking for starting pitching as a return in a trade per Derek Wetmore.

Nunez, Kurt Suzuki, Fernando Abad and Brandon Kintzler are the names that other clubs have been calling the Twins about, per Ken Rosenthal.

An unnamed contenting club has shown interest in Kyle Gibson, but the Twins are only listening, per Mike Berardino.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, who are monitoring relievers, according to LaVelle E. Neal, were scouting the Twins game with Atlanta yesterday that Ervin Santana started and finished.   The Cubs and Pirates also scouted yesterday's Twins' game, per Darren Wolfson

For some reason the Twins are scouting the Florida Marlins, per LaVelle E. Neal,

The Florida Marlins and Baltimore Orioles had scouts in the Twins games in Fenway, started by Ricky Nolasco and Tommy Milone, per Darren Wolfson.

The Twins have talked to the Red Sox, about undisclosed player(s), but no matches were found, per Mike Berardino.

Complete profile and scouting report of the newest Twins' pitcher LHP Adalberto Mejia

The Twins acquired LHP Adalberto Mejia, from the San Fransisco Giants, in exchange for Eduardo Núñez.   Núñez came to the Twins from the Yankees for Miguel Sulbaran who came to the Twins from the Dodgers for Drew Butura who came from the Mets for Louis Castillo who came from the Marlins for RHPs Scott Tyler the Twins 2001 2nd round draft pick and Travis Bowyer the Twins 1999 20th round draft pick.

Mejia was signed as international free agent from the Dominican Republic by the Giants in 2011.  Mejia last played for the Giants in AAA Sacramento River Cats (Pacific Coast League,) and was invited to their 2016 MLB camp for his first time.  He is on the Twins' 40-man roster, and likely September callup.

Mejia was born on 6/20/1993 in Bonao, Dominican Republic and was a late bloomer signing by the Giants as an eighteen year old.  That season in the Dominican Summer League he impressed, starting 13 games for 76 innings with 71 K (8.4 K/9) and only 8 BB, with a 0.868 WHIP, 1.42 ERA and 1.75 FIP.  This was enough for him to skip the Giants' US-based Rookie leagues, jumping right on full season A in 2012, playing for the Augusta GreenJackets of the Southern Atlantic League. He participated in 30 games, among them 14 starts. His final numbers for that season were:  106.7 IP  with 79 K (6.7 K/9) 21 BB (1.8 BB/9), with a 1.341 WHIP, 3.97 ERA and 3.29 FIP.  He started the season in the pen, with limited success and moved into the rotation in June, where he found success, finishing the season with a 6-3 record, 3.00 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, post All Star break.

The next season he moved up to the San Jose Giants of the High A California League.  He started 16 games (87 IP) with 89 K (9.2 K/9) and 23 BB (2.4 BB/9) for a 3.31 ERA,  4.20 FIP and 1.126 WHIP.  He miss 48 games that season in May and June with shoulder issues, but came back okay.  He was called to AAA Fresno to start a single game (5 IP, 5 H, 2 HR, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K) and participated in the Arizona Fall League playing in 7 games, 3 as a starter for 8.47 ERA, 1.529 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 in 17 innings.  In 2014 he moved up to AA Richmond Flying Squirrels (Eastern League) where he started 21 games and relieved in one, pitching 108 innings with 82 K (6.8 K/9) and 31 BB (2.6 BB/9), for a 1.389 WHIP, 4.67 ERA and 3.78 FIP. He went to the DL three times for 6 days with a leg bruise after a ball hit him in April and for 8- and 12-days in July with finger blisters.   His weight that season went up to 240 lbs (he is 6'3") and needed to be reduced.  Unfortunately he took a banned weight loss supplement that contained stimulants and tested positive, receiving a 50 day suspension, very much like current Twins' DH/1B Kennys Vargas.

He repeated AA in 2015 after he served his suspension. He appeared in 12 games (9 GS), pitching 51.3 innings with 38 K (6.7 K/9) and 18 BB (3.2 BB/9), for a 1.091 WHIP, 2.45 ERA and 3.41 FIP.  Despite the nice performance, he needed innings so he returned to the AFL (7 GS, 31 IP , 1.258 WHIP, 3.48 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 4.1 K/BB) and also appeared in the Dominican Winter League (playing for the Gigantes, coinsidentally: 5 GS, 18.3 IP , 1.091 WHIP, 3.44 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 1.5 K/BB).  After he was invited to his first MLB spring training as part of the Giants' 40-man roster, he was caught in the numbers games and started against at AA Richmond where he excelled after he trimmed down this season (11 GS, 65 IP , 0.985 WHIP, 1.94 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.2 K/BB) forcing his promotion to AAA in his age 23 season (he was 22 at the time.)  His numbers (7 GS, 40.7 IP , 1.303 WHIP, 4.20 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 2.4 K/BB) are fairly impressive, especially for the Pacific Coast League.

He has an above average to borderline plus fastball that has increased in velocity this season, sitting at 92-94 and touching 95 as a starter.  Average to above average command and improving and the pitch is projecting to be plus pitch in the near future.  Natural cutting action on the pitch.  His slider is his best pitch.  Siting at 83-84 mph and up to 86.  Nice biting motion, great command and above average control.  This is a pitch that he throws anywhere on the count, pretty much like current Twins' starter Tyler Duffey does with his curve ball.   He also throws a changeup that is an average to above average pitch that can improve.  Nice fluid mechanics.

Weight is a consideration for him, and it currently is under control, listed at 195 lbs.  His ceiling is that of a number 3 starter, but he has a high floor. His floor is of a 8th inning reliever.  He held lefties to a .216/.273/.275 slash line and had 11.3 K/9 against them, which is pretty impressive for the PCL.

Mejia was listed as the 5th best Giants' prospect by Baseball America and 7th best by MLB.com.  He would be among the top 10 in my Twins' list if I had to do this list now, but likely he will be called up in September and that will disqualify him.  Very good return for the Twins.

Twins trade rumors 7/28

Keeping track with the various Twins trade rumors to date.  I will add to this on a daily basis, when news appear.   Hypothetical trades and "good fits" are not in the list, only reports of actual interest by a particular team for a particular player.  Another thing not listed will be negations by Twins' officials that they are not shopping anyone (like this one.)

This is the list of rumors up to 7/28:

Add the San Fransisco Giants in the list of  Eduardo Núñez' suitors, per Jon Heyman via Tyler Jennings.

Eduardo Escobar is auditioning tonight, in request of un-named teams, per Mike Berardino

The Marlins, Orioles, Blue Jays, Pirates and Giants are the 5 teams that have the most talks about starting pitching, according to un-named seller team executives per Joel Sherman.  All 3 but the Jays and Giants have been scouting the Twins and the Twins have been scouting the Marlins recently.

The Twins interim manager Rob Antony has indicated that he will be looking for starting pitching as a return in a trade per Derek Wetmore.

Eduardo Núñez, has been evaluated by the Cleveland Indians, per Buster Olney.

Nunez, Kurt Suzuki, Fernando Abad and Brandon Kintzler are the names that other clubs have been calling the Twins about, per Ken Rosenthal.

An unnamed contenting club has shown interest in Kyle Gibson, but the Twins are only listening, per Mike Berardino.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, who are monitoring relievers, according to LaVelle E. Neal, were scouting the Twins game with Atlanta yesterday that Ervin Santana started and finished.   The Cubs and Pirates also scouted yesterday's Twins' game, per Darren Wolfson

For some reason the Twins are scouting the Florida Marlins, per LaVelle E. Neal,

The Florida Marlins and Baltimore Orioles had scouts in the Twins games in Fenway, started by Ricky Nolasco and Tommy Milone, per Darren Wolfson.

The Twins have talked to the Red Sox, about undisclosed player(s), but no matches were found, per Mike Berardino.

Twins trade rumors 7/27

Keeping track with the various Twins trade rumors to date.  I will add to this on a daily basis, when news appear.   Hypothetical trades and "good fits" are not in the list, only reports of actual interest by a particular team for a particular player.  Another thing not listed will be negations by Twins' officials that they are not shopping anyone (like this one.)

This is the list of rumors up to 7/27:

Eduardo Núñez, has been evaluated by the Cleveland Indians, per Buster Olney.

Nunez, Kurt Suzuki, Fernando Abad and Brandon Kintzler are the names that other clubs have been calling the Twins about, per Ken Rosenthal.

An unnamed contenting club has shown interest in Kyle Gibson, but the Twins are only listening, per Mike Berardino.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, who are monitoring relievers, according to LaVelle E. Neal, were scouting the Twins game with Atlanta yesterday that Ervin Santana started and finished.   The Cubs and Pirates also scouted yesterday's Twins' game, per Darren Wolfson

For some reason the Twins are scouting the Florida Marlins, per LaVelle E. Neal,

The Florida Marlins and Baltimore Orioles had scouts in the Twins games in Fenway, started by Ricky Nolasco and Tommy Milone, per Darren Wolfson.

The Twins have talked to the Red Sox, about undisclosed player(s), but no matches were found, per Mike Berardino.

By the numbers: How bad have Deron Johnson's Twins' drafts been?

As the Minnesota Twins are evaluating their front office, I would like to take the opportunity to objectively evaluate the performance of certain parts of their front office for which there might be appropriate objective evaluation criteria.  Deron Johnson, the Twins scouting director since 2008, who came into the organization when the dearly departed Terry Ryan became the General Manager in 1994, as a regional scout, has been primarily responsible for the Rule 4 amateur draft.  There is a feeling that the Twins do not draft and develop players well.  But drafting and developing are two different things, and need to see how each of them might be performing against the rest of the league. 

How has Johnson done against the league, in the draft?

Here is the data:  I looked at the overall WAR for each team for each draft for all players selected by that team in the first 10 rounds of that draft.   Calculated the average WAR for each draft and the teams better are indicated with green.  The teams are listed alphabetically and the Twins are bolded.  Averages in yellow indicate small sample size, because simply not enough players made it to the bigs in the last few seasons to make any conclusions, but the ones who made it, count to the total team WAR numbers, since Deron Johnson was responsible for the Twins draft.

Long story short:

During the time that Johnson has been in charge of the Twins draft the Twins did better than only 6 other teams in the league: The Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies and the Rangers who all are willing to open their wallets and buy players drafted and developed by others and, surprisingly, the Rays, who are more than willing to sell everyone high to restock their system with players that other teams drafted to develop.  The Twins do neither, so that it a pretty big problem.  And yes Deron Johnson has been performing way below average, and D students should go home...

Few notes:

• This is pretty interesting data about where the Twins can look to stock their front office.  Surprisingly, the Diamondbacks', Padres', Jays', White Sox', and Nationals' systems might be good sources of scouting talent to replace at least Deron and some of his scouts.
• If it were not for 2009 where Dozier and Gibson account for most of the Twins' WAR, the numbers would be really pathetic.
• If you look at teams like the White Sox, that have had the fourth best draft WAR in the period and really nothing to show about it in the majors, you can make easy conclusions about problems with their development and management systems
• Yes, there are up and downs in most teams, but with the Twins other than 2009, it has been mostly downs, and the other teams, have done something about it (replacing under-performing Front Office pieces.)  Will the Twins have the guts to do the same?

Finally Pohlad fires Ryan but he acts like is not sure that it is the right move

There has been a lot reported about the fact that the General Manager with the worst record in the Twins' history, is history himself and a lot of it has to be digested.   I promise that I will write extensively what I think about this, when things have settled a bit, but here is my reaction:

• Despite feeling that Terry Ryan should not be the General Manager of my favorite team, since he architected the miserable teams to support daddy Pohlad's contraction plans (and, yes, lot's of people who are reading this do not remember that, because they were not following the Twins back then - and I don't blame you,) I did not have Champagne to celebrate his firing.
• Been there, done that.  Ryan went away, said that 21st century baseball is way over his head and was hired back 5 years after the fact, and after a hiatus from baseball, presumably making it way way over his head.  And that hiring worked really well for the Twins and Ryan.  It made Ryan the General Manager with the worst winning record since the Twins moved to MN. Actually with the worst record ever, because until Andy MacPhail was hired, the Twins/Senators did not have a GM, but the owner acted as the GM.
• That press release read way too much like a retirement thing and the Twins have already been there done that with Ryan.  And then he came back.  Like Michael Corleone in Godfather III.  People give too much kudos to Ryan for choosing harakiri now vs. firing in the off-season (and he had a freaking month to make that choice, in addition to have the choice ??!!)   Selfish move.  His way was the highway.  But he wanted it to be his way (pretty sure that someone car write a C&W song for that, and David St Peter might even his/her concern hosted at Target Field.)
• And everyone in the press is exalting Ryan and saying that he will be hired by someone else soon.  And: a. we have seen this before with Gardenhire (who was only hired by the person who fired him, the aforementioned Ryan, who just got fired), b. I hope he gets hired by an AL Central team and c. How good is he with a broom?
• Rob Antony is on the spot.  Do or die role.  Probably the only GM (acting - which is about right) in the MLB whose only qualification is Public Relationships.  He's got to do, otherwise the new GM will send him Ryan's way.  Hope he surfaces and trades everyone he should trade (Mr Plouffe, Dozier, Santana, Suzuki, Santana, Nolasco, Milone, Abad, Kintzer, etc, that's you.)
• Molitor's interview after the fact was enlightening.  And the Twins' reporters did not report it in its entirety.  Among other things he said that: a. he wants to be part of the solution (but he said it in a way too weak way) and b. that now he can do some things that he wanted to do.  Which makes the obvious more obvious:  Molitor and Ryan never saw eye to eye.  And Pohlad imposed Molitor to Ryan.  And likely the Sano to RF idiocy was imposed to Molitor by Ryan
• But I would not read too much into the Pohlad vote of confidence for Molitor in 2017.  In so many words he told the press that Ryan will be the Twins' GM for as long as he wanted to, the same time he was informing him that he will be gone next season.  About a month ago.  And he did the same for Gardenhire in the middle of the 2014 season.  So Pohlad's word are worth... well not so much.  His vote of confidence is more akin to a dagger in the back.
• And you will hear a lot about the "great relationship between Terry and Paul"  Look at actions, do not believe at words

More on this later, these are just my first thoughts on the subject... 

The 2016 Minnesota Twins are inching up to a historic record

.252

That's the number the 2106 Twins are reaching towards in winning percentage.  It is the franchise's worst record (1904 Senators) and the modern era's 4th worst for all baseball.

The Twins' current .316 winning percentage (that translates to a 51-111 record) is the 4th worst of the franchise trailing only the aforementioned 1904 (.252) and the 1909 (.276) and 1903 (.314) teams.
 
In its time in Minnesota this is by far the Twins' worst losing clip.  Second worst was that of the 1982 squad (.370, 102 losses)

Another feather in Terry Ryan's and Paul Molitor's caps...