Ramoncito (Ramon) Santana is probably one of the biggest, if not the biggest, surprise in the Twins' minor league system this young season. Here is a closer look at Ramon:
Ramon, a diminutive (generously listed at 5'9" and 152 lbs) right handed middle infielder, was signed as a free agent from Venezuela by the Twins in 2004. His first professional season was in 2006 at age 20 with the Dominican Summer League Twins, where he joined a team that also included Rene Leveret, Santos Arias, Danny Rondon, Yangervis Solarte, Alexander Soto, Henry Reyes, and Jeanfred Brito. That was one of the most successful DSL squads since all the aforementioned made the jump to the US and joined either the GCL Twins (R-) or the Elizabethton Twins (R) for the 2007 season.
In 2006 season, Ramon appeared in 50 games and had 223 plate appearances for the DSL Twins splitting time between second base and short stop. It was a very productive season for him. He hit .313/.448/.528 (.977 OPS, team leading .215 isoP) team leading 8 HR, walked 38 times, while struck out 37 and drove in 30. These numbers are great for a corner infielder or outfielder, but simply phenomenal for a middle infielder, in both power and plate discipline. In 2007 Ramon Santana along with a slew of his DSL teammates made the trip up north to play in the US-based minor leagues. The transition was not kind to Ramon. In 2007 he was assigned to the Gulf Coast League Twins (low Rookie) where he appeared in just 18 games (66 PA) hitting an unremarkable .211/.288/.351. In the middle of 2007 season, because of injury to Chris Cates and promotion of Brian Dinkelman to Ft. Myers, the Twins assigned Santana to the Beloit Snappers (Midwest League, A), effectively by-passing the high Rookie Elizabethton. In 15 games and 50 plate appearances in Beloit, Santana hit .225/.347/.325. This was better than his Elizabethton numbers, esp. in the plate discipline aspect, but still lacking in the contact and power aspects. In 2008, instead of starting the season in Elizabethton, Santana repeated in Beloit, where he appeared in 75 games (280 PA) and hit .241/.316/.404 with 8 HR. His 8 home runs were second in the team behind Chris Parmelee's 14, tied with Gregory Yersich's 8 but happened in 80 fewer plate appearances than Yersich. Unfortunately, last season Santana shown to be prone to strike outs, walking 18 times and striking out 84.
The 2009 season has all the elements of a breakthrough season for Santana. In 15 games and 52 plate appearances (very similar to his plate appearances with the Beloit squad in 2007) he is hitting .356/.476/.615 (1.092 OPS, .250 isoP) with a team-leading 3 HR. Also he walked 10 times and struck out 15. It looks like his power and plate discipline are back. He is enshrined at the #3 spot in the batting order and has appeared in more games and has the most plate appearances of all Snappers.
Ramon Santana has been a very pleasant surprise for the Twins' organization this season. It is not inconceivable that he might move to Ft. Myers as the season progresses, esp. if Steven Tolleson moves to Rochester, creating a Domino effect of promotions in the organization. Santana is a better second baseman than a short stop on the field and the Twins' organization has several good middle infielder prospects, however nobody has Santana's power bat, except Luke Hughes, who these days is playing more corner infield and outfield positions.
Update: After this post was published, Santana went 3 for 4 with a double and 2 RBI, in Beloit's game to raise his numbers to .393/.493/.643.
4/27/09
4/26/09
A Blast from the Past
After Glen Perkins' last start, I posted an entry suggesting that this is a new and improved Glen Perkins because this season, unlike 2008 when he was the weakest link in the Twins' rotation, he managed to keep the hitters off balance by changing speaks.
Today at Cleveland, Glen Perkins converted to his old ways. This is a graph of pitch number vs pitch speed from his appearance today, from Brooks Baseball:
As you can see, there was a series of 21 pitches all within 4 mph of each other with the exception of two pitches (red circle). This is not good and it coincided with his 3-run third inning (red bar below.) Perkins just cannot do that if he wants to be effective. He cannot throw 19 out of 21 fastballs in a row and survive in the bigs. I think that his problem is clear, he should know it, Anderson should know it, the catchers should not it and he just got to stop doing it. Otherwise, I am afraid, that he will be the Perkins of old, who is not that good...
Today at Cleveland, Glen Perkins converted to his old ways. This is a graph of pitch number vs pitch speed from his appearance today, from Brooks Baseball:
As you can see, there was a series of 21 pitches all within 4 mph of each other with the exception of two pitches (red circle). This is not good and it coincided with his 3-run third inning (red bar below.) Perkins just cannot do that if he wants to be effective. He cannot throw 19 out of 21 fastballs in a row and survive in the bigs. I think that his problem is clear, he should know it, Anderson should know it, the catchers should not it and he just got to stop doing it. Otherwise, I am afraid, that he will be the Perkins of old, who is not that good...
4/24/09
The Numbers Game
When Joe Mauer returns, as early as a week from today, a spot should open on the 25-man roster to accommodate him. I think that there are three potential candidates for that spot, in alphabetical order: Brian Buscher, Jose Morales and Micheal Redmond.
Here is how they have been performing this season:
Brian Buscher: 18 PA, .200/.333/.333 (.667 OPS). He swung at 37.5% percent of the pitches he faced, making contact on 66.7% of those, so he made contact with 25% of the pitches he saw
Jose Morales: 26 PA .250/.308/.333 (.641 OPS). He swung at 56.3% percent of the pitches he faced, making contact on 81.6% of those, so he made contact with 45.9% of the pitches he saw
Mike Redmond: 31 PA .214/.290/.250 (.540 OPS.) He swung at 41.1% percent of the pitches he faced, making contact on 89.7% of those, so he made contact with 36.9% of the pitches he saw
As far as plate performance goes, Morales has been making more contact with the ball than Redmond and Redmond has been making more contact with the ball than Buscher. One might argue that it is a small sample size, but Buscher's career contact% on all pitches he saw is 35.3% far bellow Morales' and still below Redmond's.
At this point, Morales and Buscher are playing at replacement level, Redmond below replacement level.
Redmond brings veteran leadership and clubhouse presence. Morales brings a live bat, upside, a spanish-speaking catcher who can communicate with Ayala, Liriano, Mijares and Morillo better than Redmond or Mauer. He is a switch hitter. Buscher brings in a left hand bat from the bench. Both Morales and Buscher still have minor league options.
Redmond and Morales are adequate defensively. They will not throw runners out but will not make errors. Buscher is a defensive liability who does not belong on the field in a major league stadium.
There is more than one way to make that decision and it will be a hard decision to make, since there are advantages and disadvantages to all 3. I think that Morales' bat and the fact that is adequate defensively as a catcher, as well as Redmond's veteran leadership should be chosen over Buscher's LH bat off the bench. Morales has a better LH bat off the bench (as a LH hitter he is batting .300/.333/.400, .733 OPS in 21 PA) than Buscher, anyways, and he is more versatile. If I were to rank the 3 in order of who should stay, it would be: Morales, Redmond, Buscher.
What do you think? Feel free to comment and vote on the poll at the upper left hand side of the blog.
Here is how they have been performing this season:
Brian Buscher: 18 PA, .200/.333/.333 (.667 OPS). He swung at 37.5% percent of the pitches he faced, making contact on 66.7% of those, so he made contact with 25% of the pitches he saw
Jose Morales: 26 PA .250/.308/.333 (.641 OPS). He swung at 56.3% percent of the pitches he faced, making contact on 81.6% of those, so he made contact with 45.9% of the pitches he saw
Mike Redmond: 31 PA .214/.290/.250 (.540 OPS.) He swung at 41.1% percent of the pitches he faced, making contact on 89.7% of those, so he made contact with 36.9% of the pitches he saw
As far as plate performance goes, Morales has been making more contact with the ball than Redmond and Redmond has been making more contact with the ball than Buscher. One might argue that it is a small sample size, but Buscher's career contact% on all pitches he saw is 35.3% far bellow Morales' and still below Redmond's.
At this point, Morales and Buscher are playing at replacement level, Redmond below replacement level.
Redmond brings veteran leadership and clubhouse presence. Morales brings a live bat, upside, a spanish-speaking catcher who can communicate with Ayala, Liriano, Mijares and Morillo better than Redmond or Mauer. He is a switch hitter. Buscher brings in a left hand bat from the bench. Both Morales and Buscher still have minor league options.
Redmond and Morales are adequate defensively. They will not throw runners out but will not make errors. Buscher is a defensive liability who does not belong on the field in a major league stadium.
There is more than one way to make that decision and it will be a hard decision to make, since there are advantages and disadvantages to all 3. I think that Morales' bat and the fact that is adequate defensively as a catcher, as well as Redmond's veteran leadership should be chosen over Buscher's LH bat off the bench. Morales has a better LH bat off the bench (as a LH hitter he is batting .300/.333/.400, .733 OPS in 21 PA) than Buscher, anyways, and he is more versatile. If I were to rank the 3 in order of who should stay, it would be: Morales, Redmond, Buscher.
What do you think? Feel free to comment and vote on the poll at the upper left hand side of the blog.
4/23/09
Is Michael Cuddyer done?
Micheal Cuddyer was one of the heroes of the 2006 Twins that won the AL Central division in dramatic fashion the last day of the regular season. That season, his age 27 season, he exceeded expectations after establishing himself as the starting right fielder, instead of being moved around in the infield, hitting .284/.362/.504 with 24 HR and 109 RBI. The Twins' organization regarded him as a power right hand bat that could split the franchise lefties, Joe Mauer and Jason Morneau and create a formidable core in the middle of the lineup for years to come. In the off-season after his 2006 season, he signed an one year $3.575 million contract to avoid arbitration. After his 2007 season, which was not as productive (.276/.356/.433 16 HR, 18 RBI), the Twins decided to keep him long term, offering him a 3 year/$25 million contract through 2010 with a team option for 2011 worth $10.5 million. This contract coincided with the departures of Torii Hunter to the Angels via free agency and Johan Santana to the Mets via a trade. The Twins needed a face for their franchise to quell disappointment by these departures and the gregarious and outspoken Cuddyer was cast into that role. There are a lot of arguments against that contract given to Cuddyer after a down season and at age 28; however, it should be clear that this contract was not only for his field production but for his franchise representation to the public. That said, here is the question that I will try to answer:
Are Michael Cuddyer's best days as a player behind him?
To try to answer this question, I will try to examine the following:
Career Hitting
this graph is a plot of Michael Cuddyer's OPS in the different seasons he played. Season 1 is 2001 and season 9 is his current age 30 season.
It is clear that his OPS peaked at season 6, 2006 his age 27 season, and has practically linearly declined since.
Comparable Players
Baseball Reference has a great tool that determines the 10 most similar players to a particular player, based on production. Here I am examining Michel Cuddyer's 10 most similar, looking at when they had their peaks, in order to potentially get additional clues about Cuddyer. Here is a list of the 10 most similar players with the age of their peak in parethesis. A couple are disqualified from this analysis, one because he is still 25 years old and the other because he played in the 50s:
1. Kevin Mench (peak age 26)
2. Jeff Francoeur (too young, just in age 25 season)
3. Walt Moryn (played in the 50s - entered MLB at 28)
4. Leon Roberts (peak age 27)
5. Gabe Kapler (peak age 24)
6. Sean Berry (peak age 29)
7. Mike Lamb (peak age 28)
8. Chris Singleton (peak age 26)
9. Butch Huskey (peak age 27)
10. Xavier Nady (peak age 29)
the average age peak of these 8 players is age 27. The exact age Michael Cuddyer was during his 2006 season.
Career Power
this graph is a plot of Michael Cuddyer's isoP (isolated power = SLG%-batting average) in the different seasons he played. Season 1 is 2001 and season 9 is his current age 30 season.
It is clear that his power, like his hitting ability, peaked at season 6, 2006 his age 27 season, and has declined since, however not with as dramatic a rate as his hitting ability.
Hitting Tendencies
This was a big surprise to me.
The graph above is a plot of the percentage of balls inside the strike zone (Z-S%) and outside of the strike zone (O-S%) that Micheal Cuddyer has been swinging at during the different seasons. There is no data for 2001, so this is from 2002 on.
As you can see, consistently every season, Cuddyer swings at more balls than the previous season and swings at fewer strikes that the previous season. This is not a recipe for success and it really is bothersome, because it indicates that since his 2002 age 23 season, Cuddyer has become progressively worse in pitch selection.
in other words:
Cuddyer had a better judgment on balls and strikes at age 23, than he had during his age 27, 2006 season and now
Cuddyer, following the example of Denard Span underwent LASIK eye surgery in the off-season. Based on his early 2009 results, it seems that the surgery did not help him distinguish balls and stikes; if anything it made things worse.
Monthly hitting
I wanted to get a bit more granular view than seasonal hitting, so I plotted Cuddyer's monthly OPS from the 2004 season to now, to help identify his peak better:
The bottom line is that since May 2007, when Cuddyer had an OPS of .954 in 100 plate appearances, with the exception of June of 2008 when his OPS was .866 in 91 plate appearances, Cuddyer a. did not have a single month with OPS higher than .800, and b. his OPS has been practically declining month by month.
This is not good news.
Is Cuddyer done?
At this point, there are a lot of indicators, that Cuddyer's best days are over. The swing graphs and the monthly and seasonal OPS drops are somewhat disheartening. However, the June of 2008 provides a glimmer of hope, despite all the other negative indicators. Potentially Cuddyer might have similar months, however even these months will probably not be close to his 2006 production. I think that the Twins should focus on giving more time to Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young, whose best days are ahead of them and give Cuddyer a more limited role, similar to that of Craig Monroe and Randy Ruiz of the 2008 season. Cuddyer will be better than both of them in that role and will be positive for the team. Yes, he will be an overpaid bench/role player, however, as I indicated earlier, part of his contract was because his off-field role, so the "overpayment" for a limited on-field role is mitigated. And if he shows signs that he might have months like the June of 2008, his role could increase for that month and return to limited upon signs of decline (easy to spot based on swinging tendencies)
Are Michael Cuddyer's best days as a player behind him?
To try to answer this question, I will try to examine the following:
- hitting through career, represented by OPS
- comparable players
- power through career, represented by isoP
- tendencies at bat through career
- monthly hitting since 2004
Career Hitting
this graph is a plot of Michael Cuddyer's OPS in the different seasons he played. Season 1 is 2001 and season 9 is his current age 30 season.
It is clear that his OPS peaked at season 6, 2006 his age 27 season, and has practically linearly declined since.
Comparable Players
Baseball Reference has a great tool that determines the 10 most similar players to a particular player, based on production. Here I am examining Michel Cuddyer's 10 most similar, looking at when they had their peaks, in order to potentially get additional clues about Cuddyer. Here is a list of the 10 most similar players with the age of their peak in parethesis. A couple are disqualified from this analysis, one because he is still 25 years old and the other because he played in the 50s:
1. Kevin Mench (peak age 26)
2. Jeff Francoeur (too young, just in age 25 season)
3. Walt Moryn (played in the 50s - entered MLB at 28)
4. Leon Roberts (peak age 27)
5. Gabe Kapler (peak age 24)
6. Sean Berry (peak age 29)
7. Mike Lamb (peak age 28)
8. Chris Singleton (peak age 26)
9. Butch Huskey (peak age 27)
10. Xavier Nady (peak age 29)
the average age peak of these 8 players is age 27. The exact age Michael Cuddyer was during his 2006 season.
Career Power
this graph is a plot of Michael Cuddyer's isoP (isolated power = SLG%-batting average) in the different seasons he played. Season 1 is 2001 and season 9 is his current age 30 season.
It is clear that his power, like his hitting ability, peaked at season 6, 2006 his age 27 season, and has declined since, however not with as dramatic a rate as his hitting ability.
Hitting Tendencies
This was a big surprise to me.
The graph above is a plot of the percentage of balls inside the strike zone (Z-S%) and outside of the strike zone (O-S%) that Micheal Cuddyer has been swinging at during the different seasons. There is no data for 2001, so this is from 2002 on.
As you can see, consistently every season, Cuddyer swings at more balls than the previous season and swings at fewer strikes that the previous season. This is not a recipe for success and it really is bothersome, because it indicates that since his 2002 age 23 season, Cuddyer has become progressively worse in pitch selection.
in other words:
Cuddyer had a better judgment on balls and strikes at age 23, than he had during his age 27, 2006 season and now
Cuddyer, following the example of Denard Span underwent LASIK eye surgery in the off-season. Based on his early 2009 results, it seems that the surgery did not help him distinguish balls and stikes; if anything it made things worse.
Monthly hitting
I wanted to get a bit more granular view than seasonal hitting, so I plotted Cuddyer's monthly OPS from the 2004 season to now, to help identify his peak better:
The bottom line is that since May 2007, when Cuddyer had an OPS of .954 in 100 plate appearances, with the exception of June of 2008 when his OPS was .866 in 91 plate appearances, Cuddyer a. did not have a single month with OPS higher than .800, and b. his OPS has been practically declining month by month.
This is not good news.
Is Cuddyer done?
At this point, there are a lot of indicators, that Cuddyer's best days are over. The swing graphs and the monthly and seasonal OPS drops are somewhat disheartening. However, the June of 2008 provides a glimmer of hope, despite all the other negative indicators. Potentially Cuddyer might have similar months, however even these months will probably not be close to his 2006 production. I think that the Twins should focus on giving more time to Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young, whose best days are ahead of them and give Cuddyer a more limited role, similar to that of Craig Monroe and Randy Ruiz of the 2008 season. Cuddyer will be better than both of them in that role and will be positive for the team. Yes, he will be an overpaid bench/role player, however, as I indicated earlier, part of his contract was because his off-field role, so the "overpayment" for a limited on-field role is mitigated. And if he shows signs that he might have months like the June of 2008, his role could increase for that month and return to limited upon signs of decline (easy to spot based on swinging tendencies)
4/20/09
Pitching Checkpoint
This off day I was planning or writing something about the catching situation, but since there were a few new developments on the pitching side, I decided not to ignore those. Since it looks like there will be a rain out tomorrow, I will discuss catching tomorrow.
It is old news by now, but Jesse Crain has been placed at the 15-day DL retroactive to a couple days ago and Jose Mijares has been called up from Rochester to replace him. LEN3 was the first to break that story. Mijares after an awful spring when he showed up in camp looking like Pat Williams and pitching in a way that made Kevin Frederick look like a Cy Young candidate, seems to have found parts of his last September in Rocherster, where in five games he amassed these numbers: 6.1 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 4 K, 0 ER (0.00 ERA, 0.47 WHIP.) Crain did get overused so far this season. It was inexcusable for Gardy to put him in the 9th inning to close a blow out game. That is done, it cannot be corrected, but I hope that Gardenhire realizes his mistake and does not repeat it. Speaking of repeating mistakes, when Gardenhire was asked about who the set up man will be now, he answered that everyone who is rested except Morillo who is still "a project". Wrong answer. He should select one (even pull names off a a hat) and go with him. The worse thing about a reliever is not knowing what his role is. Pitchers need to get ready to pitch. I hope that Crain gets healthy soon and that he returns effective because he showed signs of brilliance so far this season.
A lot of people are climbing on Glen Perkins' bandwagon this season and with a good reason: he has been the most effective starter on the staff. Yesterday in the Angels series' review I wrote the following about Perkins:
The Perkins of 2009 so far is different than the Perkins of 2008: He apparently worked on his change up and slider this off-season and unlike last year, he has complimentary pitches to his fastball. His slider still needs work, but his change up is very effective. And when he is down on the count he does not throw fastballs in the middle of the plate like he did in 2008. This allows him to get through innings with fewer pitches and pitch deeper into the games
And because a picture is supposedly worth a thousand words, I will save myself two thousand and present you with these two from one of the great baseball sites out there, Brooksbaseball.net, to illustrate my previous point.
Exhibit A:
This is a graph of pitch number on the X axis and pitch velocity on the Y axis. This is Perkins pitching in yesterday's game against the Angels. As you can see, it is rare that he is throwing more than 2 fastballs in a row and there is a great mix between fastballs and off-speed pitches.
Exhibit B:
This is from a typical Perkins' outing in 2008. The 8/14 game in Seattle: He throwed a series of only fastballs four times (red circles-me-Bert), very few off-speed pitches, and when he got in trouble towards the end of his outing he threw 10 straight fastballs. This was not the way to pitch successfully and I had indicated ad noseum last season, that if this continues, Perkins does not belong in a major league rotation.
I am very happy that this has change and I hope that Glen keeps it up and when in trouble does not revert to bad habits.
The general opinion is that the Twins' starters have struggled last season:
here is a little known fact: The Twins (co-lead the majors) with 9 starters going more than six innings. I hope this makes the Twins' fans feel a little better.
It is old news by now, but Jesse Crain has been placed at the 15-day DL retroactive to a couple days ago and Jose Mijares has been called up from Rochester to replace him. LEN3 was the first to break that story. Mijares after an awful spring when he showed up in camp looking like Pat Williams and pitching in a way that made Kevin Frederick look like a Cy Young candidate, seems to have found parts of his last September in Rocherster, where in five games he amassed these numbers: 6.1 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 4 K, 0 ER (0.00 ERA, 0.47 WHIP.) Crain did get overused so far this season. It was inexcusable for Gardy to put him in the 9th inning to close a blow out game. That is done, it cannot be corrected, but I hope that Gardenhire realizes his mistake and does not repeat it. Speaking of repeating mistakes, when Gardenhire was asked about who the set up man will be now, he answered that everyone who is rested except Morillo who is still "a project". Wrong answer. He should select one (even pull names off a a hat) and go with him. The worse thing about a reliever is not knowing what his role is. Pitchers need to get ready to pitch. I hope that Crain gets healthy soon and that he returns effective because he showed signs of brilliance so far this season.
A lot of people are climbing on Glen Perkins' bandwagon this season and with a good reason: he has been the most effective starter on the staff. Yesterday in the Angels series' review I wrote the following about Perkins:
The Perkins of 2009 so far is different than the Perkins of 2008: He apparently worked on his change up and slider this off-season and unlike last year, he has complimentary pitches to his fastball. His slider still needs work, but his change up is very effective. And when he is down on the count he does not throw fastballs in the middle of the plate like he did in 2008. This allows him to get through innings with fewer pitches and pitch deeper into the games
And because a picture is supposedly worth a thousand words, I will save myself two thousand and present you with these two from one of the great baseball sites out there, Brooksbaseball.net, to illustrate my previous point.
Exhibit A:
This is a graph of pitch number on the X axis and pitch velocity on the Y axis. This is Perkins pitching in yesterday's game against the Angels. As you can see, it is rare that he is throwing more than 2 fastballs in a row and there is a great mix between fastballs and off-speed pitches.
Exhibit B:
This is from a typical Perkins' outing in 2008. The 8/14 game in Seattle: He throwed a series of only fastballs four times (red circles-me-Bert), very few off-speed pitches, and when he got in trouble towards the end of his outing he threw 10 straight fastballs. This was not the way to pitch successfully and I had indicated ad noseum last season, that if this continues, Perkins does not belong in a major league rotation.
I am very happy that this has change and I hope that Glen keeps it up and when in trouble does not revert to bad habits.
The general opinion is that the Twins' starters have struggled last season:
here is a little known fact: The Twins (co-lead the majors) with 9 starters going more than six innings. I hope this makes the Twins' fans feel a little better.
4/19/09
looking between the lines: four series down
The Twins finished the four first series of the young season, sweeping the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the Metrodome in a three game series. After 14 games they are 1 game out of first place in the AL Central division, trailing the Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals, while they are leading the last place Cleveland Indians by 2.5 games. Here are my observations about the team at this time point:
Position Player MVP of the series with the Angels:
Jason Kubel
14 AB, 8 H, 5 R, 7 RBI, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HR (hit for the cycle)
Best Pitcher of the series with the Angels:
Glen Perkins
8 IP 4 H 1 ER 1 BB 4 K
- A three game home series facing the assortment of AAA and bullpen arms of the Angels was a shot in the arm for the bats. Jason Kubel had 2 great days back to back, being the third player ever to hit for the cycle and completing it with a game winning grand slam. I am sure that in the long term, this will be a career highlight for Kubel; however for the short term, even more important might be the fact that the next day Garderhire started him against a LHP at DH and he delivered
- Kevin Slowey might be back. He pitched 7 innings in the middle game of the series having only very few bad pitches, one of which was hit for a home run by Torii Hunter. Glen Perkins has been very surprising this season. The Perkins of 2009 so far is different than the Perkins of 2008: He apparently worked on his change up and slider this off-season and unlike last year, he has complimentary pitches to his fastball. His slider still needs work, but his change up is very effective. And when he is down on the count he does not throw fastballs in the middle of the plate like he did in 2008. This allows him to get through innings with fewer pitches and pitch deeper into the games
- This series brought the first transaction of the young season, the acquisition of Jose Morillo off waivers and the DFAing of Phillip Humber. After the first appearance of Morillo in the ninth inning yesterday, where he pitched a scoreless inning allowing one hit and striking out one, while his fastball was between 96 and 98 mph, it might be safe to assume that the Twins will not miss Mr Humber much this season
- Every position player got into the hit parade the last 2 days. I will post some thoughts about the catching situation tomorrow during the first off day of the season, but Jose Morales had a very good series, Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez not only hit the ball but worked counts out for walks and Brendan Harris so far is putting Ted Williams-like numbers in limited duty, which seems to be deservingly increasing
- How sustainable is this? There are some good signs: The Twins are two games ahead of their 2008 pace so far (there were 6-8 after 14 games in 2008) without the complete rotation gelling, without all relievers bringing out top notch performances, with Joe Crede, Mike Cuddyer and Alexi Casilla lagging at the plate and with Joe Mauer in Florida. I think that the Twins are in good shape. If they finish the month of April within 1-2 games from the division lead, they will be a force to be reckoned with, since the bench and the pen is better than last season and the rotation seems to be better just by the fact that Perkins is pitching like a different pitcher. Time will tell, but so far so good
Position Player MVP of the series with the Angels:
Jason Kubel
14 AB, 8 H, 5 R, 7 RBI, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HR (hit for the cycle)
Best Pitcher of the series with the Angels:
Glen Perkins
8 IP 4 H 1 ER 1 BB 4 K
4/18/09
Another comeback for the ages!
highlighted by a grand slam to complete hitting for the cycle by Kubel. It seems that the Twins are going to spoil us with comebacks this season.
4/17/09
Meet and Greet: Juan Morillo
Today the Twins designated Phillip Humber for assignment and claimed Juan Morillo off waivers from the Colorado Rockies.
Who is Juan Morillo?
Juan is a 25-year old righty from San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic, who was signed by the Rockies in 2001 as a 17 year old. He is a flamethrower. His main weapon is his fastball, that averages in the high 90s and occasionally hits triple digits. He has a 89-90 mph slider and a 88-89 mph "change up". His control has been a work in progress, and has been his biggest downfall. Additionally, lack of movement in his fastball has been pointed out. Thus the earlier comparison to Rick "wild thing" Vaughn from the movie "Major League".
Can Juan Morillo help the Twins?
Let's examine the facts:
His career minor league numbers are: 6 seasons, 183 games, 83 GS, 543 IP, 520 H, 262 ER, 326 BB, 519 K, which translate to 4.34 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9, 8.6 K/9 and 1.59 K/BB. He made the transition to a reliever in 2007. Also, from those 188 games, he spent 59 games in the Pacific Coast League with the Colorado Springs Sky Sox (AAA). If we exclude his PCL games, and look at his numbers, they become 3.5 BB/9, 8.54 K/9, 2.43 K/BB, which is more palatable. In addition he held opponents to an encouraging .246 batting average (lefties: .247, righties:.246.) In his last season away from the PCL, 2007, when he pitched for the Tulsa Drillers of the Texas League (AA), he held lefties to a .161 and righties to a .248 batting average. Furthermore, in parts of 3 major leagues seasons he faced 44 batters of which he walked 4 and struck out 7. Another positive sign is that batters do not hit home runs easily off him. In 536 IP he allowed 32 home runs in the minors.
At some point, Colorado organizational scouts had ranked him higher than Ubaldo Jimenez when they were both with the Modesto Nuts (California League, A+), in 2005. Here is what a Rockies' scout had to say about Juan Morillo then:
I thought the emphasis on patience practiced in Midland would hurt Morillo, but his command looked much improved from the first time I saw him this season. It's hard to tell if his fastball moves because I could hardly pick it up through the black net. His fastball and the Midland starter's fastball were like night and day, and few hitters could get around to pulling the ball on Juan. Produced tons of weak liners, soft grounders and high pop ups. Only three balls put in play appeared to get hit squarely. Fastball was outstanding, but slider came and went. I liked that he pitched more for contact and went after hitters, because even a 99 mph-er down the middle is rarely struck well. Very promising start. He still has needs work, but he's a legit top ten organizational talent, and should reach the bigs and contribute in some fashion.
Will Morillo turn into a top notch set-up guy overnight? It is unlikely, but he is still 25 and if used appropriately he might surprise. He will be removed from the thin air of Colorado and the Pacific coast league, which does not allow a slider to break as it should. He will be moving to a league that no batter has faced him before. If he throws strikes and is able to get his slider over the plate, he will be a good addition to the club. A high reward, low risk situation, which shows that Smith is not afraid to do moves that help the club. It would be great, if Morillo turns out like the last pitcher Bill Smith picked out of the waiver wire: Craig Breslow.
Like Phillip Humber, Juan Morillo is out of options and has to stay in the Twins 25-man roster all season or be exposed to waivers. Morillo was assigned uniform number 31. The last pitcher who wore 31 was J.D. "The Real Deal" Durbin. Let's hope that Morillo performs closer to the first pitcher who wore number 31 for the Twins, Jim Perry.
Who is Juan Morillo?
Juan is a 25-year old righty from San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic, who was signed by the Rockies in 2001 as a 17 year old. He is a flamethrower. His main weapon is his fastball, that averages in the high 90s and occasionally hits triple digits. He has a 89-90 mph slider and a 88-89 mph "change up". His control has been a work in progress, and has been his biggest downfall. Additionally, lack of movement in his fastball has been pointed out. Thus the earlier comparison to Rick "wild thing" Vaughn from the movie "Major League".
Can Juan Morillo help the Twins?
Let's examine the facts:
His career minor league numbers are: 6 seasons, 183 games, 83 GS, 543 IP, 520 H, 262 ER, 326 BB, 519 K, which translate to 4.34 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9, 8.6 K/9 and 1.59 K/BB. He made the transition to a reliever in 2007. Also, from those 188 games, he spent 59 games in the Pacific Coast League with the Colorado Springs Sky Sox (AAA). If we exclude his PCL games, and look at his numbers, they become 3.5 BB/9, 8.54 K/9, 2.43 K/BB, which is more palatable. In addition he held opponents to an encouraging .246 batting average (lefties: .247, righties:.246.) In his last season away from the PCL, 2007, when he pitched for the Tulsa Drillers of the Texas League (AA), he held lefties to a .161 and righties to a .248 batting average. Furthermore, in parts of 3 major leagues seasons he faced 44 batters of which he walked 4 and struck out 7. Another positive sign is that batters do not hit home runs easily off him. In 536 IP he allowed 32 home runs in the minors.
At some point, Colorado organizational scouts had ranked him higher than Ubaldo Jimenez when they were both with the Modesto Nuts (California League, A+), in 2005. Here is what a Rockies' scout had to say about Juan Morillo then:
I thought the emphasis on patience practiced in Midland would hurt Morillo, but his command looked much improved from the first time I saw him this season. It's hard to tell if his fastball moves because I could hardly pick it up through the black net. His fastball and the Midland starter's fastball were like night and day, and few hitters could get around to pulling the ball on Juan. Produced tons of weak liners, soft grounders and high pop ups. Only three balls put in play appeared to get hit squarely. Fastball was outstanding, but slider came and went. I liked that he pitched more for contact and went after hitters, because even a 99 mph-er down the middle is rarely struck well. Very promising start. He still has needs work, but he's a legit top ten organizational talent, and should reach the bigs and contribute in some fashion.
Will Morillo turn into a top notch set-up guy overnight? It is unlikely, but he is still 25 and if used appropriately he might surprise. He will be removed from the thin air of Colorado and the Pacific coast league, which does not allow a slider to break as it should. He will be moving to a league that no batter has faced him before. If he throws strikes and is able to get his slider over the plate, he will be a good addition to the club. A high reward, low risk situation, which shows that Smith is not afraid to do moves that help the club. It would be great, if Morillo turns out like the last pitcher Bill Smith picked out of the waiver wire: Craig Breslow.
Like Phillip Humber, Juan Morillo is out of options and has to stay in the Twins 25-man roster all season or be exposed to waivers. Morillo was assigned uniform number 31. The last pitcher who wore 31 was J.D. "The Real Deal" Durbin. Let's hope that Morillo performs closer to the first pitcher who wore number 31 for the Twins, Jim Perry.
Juan Morillo is a Twin
The Twins just claimed Juan Morillo off waivers from the Rockies and designated Philip Humber for assignment.
A full profile of Juan Morillo is here, but this video pretty much summarizes Juan Morillo. I wonder whether they will issue him the number 99 jersey.
looking between the lines: the first three series in the books.
The Twins finished their first three series of the 2009 season and are sitting with a 4-7 record in the 4th place of the AL Central, having won a single game more than the Cleveland Indians. This is a disappointing start, and all the parts of the team (Starting rotation, bullpen and bats) have contributed equally. Let's look closely, trying to pick possible glimmers of hope:
Position Player MVP of the series with Toronto:
Justin Morneau
17 AB, 8 H, 3R, 1 RBI, 0 BB, 4 K
Best Pitcher of the series with Toronto:
Glen Perkins
8 IP 7 H 2 ER 1 BB 4 K
- This team is 2 games behind of the 2008 team, when the Twins were 6-5 after 11 games. On the other hand, in 2008 in their first 3 games at Chicago, they also went 1-2, in their first 4 home games with Toronto they went 0-4 and in their 3 home games with Seattle they went 3-0. Based on those individual series breakdowns, the 2009 Twins are keeping pace with the 2008 Twins who won 88 games. And they are doing in without Joe Mauer, who is slated to return as early as the Cleveland series next week, after starting rehabilitation with the Ft. Myers Miracle next Monday
- Crain and Nathan can anchor the back of the bullpen. Despite the fact that the other members of the bullpen have struggled, Crain and Nathan have been performing great, when they got the call.
- Morneau is up to a great start. He is hitting .341/.348/.568 with 2 home runs and 8 runs driven in and if he continues close to this pace, he will have another MVP year
- Span has been the Span of 2008 and not the Span of Spring Training 2009. He has been hitting .293/.408/.390 and leads the team in stolen bases with 3. If he continues close to this pace, he will provide the team with a reliable pace setter
- The rotation will rebound, and the rebound has already started. Liriano pitched like the August of 2008 Liriano yesterday and not like the April 2008 Liriano. Perkins has been brilliant in his 2 starts. I am confident that Blackburn, Slowey and Baker will be back to form soon; hopefully the first two as soon as the Angels series starting today. Part of it might be the inexperience of Morales in calling a game. With Morales behind the plate, opponents bat .337/.388/.546 off the Twins' pitchers. With Redmond behind the plate, opponents bat .256/.315/.422 off the Twins' pitchers. This suggest that with the upcoming return of Mauer, the pitching numbers will improve, since in 2008 opponents had practically the same OPS against Twins' pitcher with either Mauer or Redmond behind the plate.
Position Player MVP of the series with Toronto:
Justin Morneau
17 AB, 8 H, 3R, 1 RBI, 0 BB, 4 K
Best Pitcher of the series with Toronto:
Glen Perkins
8 IP 7 H 2 ER 1 BB 4 K
4/15/09
The curious case of Kevin Slowey
A lot of people (including me) have been expecting greatness this year by Kevin Slowey, after his great pitching last season, followed by a tremendous spring training performance.
In the first 2 games of the 2009 season, Kevin Slowey is pitching at a rate of: 11.1 IP, 22 H, 10 ER, 1 BB, 7 K (7.94 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, 5.56 K/9, 7 K/BB), promoting comparisons to Livan Hernandez by a certain Twins' beat writer.
How worried should the Twins be about Slowey?
My answer is: not that worried. Here are the reasons:
My conclusion is that Slowey will rebound very soon and will end up having the great season that a lot of us expected from him. What do you think?
In the first 2 games of the 2009 season, Kevin Slowey is pitching at a rate of: 11.1 IP, 22 H, 10 ER, 1 BB, 7 K (7.94 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, 5.56 K/9, 7 K/BB), promoting comparisons to Livan Hernandez by a certain Twins' beat writer.
How worried should the Twins be about Slowey?
My answer is: not that worried. Here are the reasons:
- Everyone can have a bad 2 games in a row. Here are some examples:
- 2007 Cy Young award winner, Jake Peavy, in two consecutive September games that season produced this line: 11 IP 12 H 10 ER 5 BB 9 K (8.18 ERA).
- 2004 Cy Young award winner, Roger Clemens, in two consecutive June games that season produced this line: 10.2 IP 20 H 10 ER, 3 BB, 9 K (8.41 ERA).
- 2005 Cy Young award winner Bartolo Colon in Two consecutive games in July that season produced this line: 11 IP, 15 H, 12 ER, 6 BB, 7 K (9.82 ERA)
- 2007 Cy Young award winner, Jake Peavy, in two consecutive September games that season produced this line: 11 IP 12 H 10 ER 5 BB 9 K (8.18 ERA).
- Slowey's BABIP so far has been .421. This is much higher than the league average of .295 and is about to regress towards that average sooner or later. This means that Slowey has been very unlucky in balls hitter put in play.
- Stowey's stuff is not that different from last year in these two games with one exception:
Here are his pitches, percentage of time he threw each and (average velocity),from FanGraphs:
Season FB SL CB CH
2008 66.3% (89.9) 14.0% (85.7) 11.9% (74.3) 7.8% (82.8)
2009 62.0% (90.0) 22.3% (83.3) 9.2% (74.5) 6.5% (83.3)
All of his pitches are pretty close to 2008 other than his slider that has lost about 2.5 mph and he has been throwing it almost twice as frequently in 2009 as he did in 2008. This might be what we are seeing right now, and it is a very easy adjustment: throw fewer sliders.
Also the results of his pitches other than batted balls has been very similar to 2008:
Season BB/9 K/9 K/BB
2008 1.3 6.9 5.13
2009 0.8 5.6 7.00
if anything, he seems to have better command in these two games that he had last season
My conclusion is that Slowey will rebound very soon and will end up having the great season that a lot of us expected from him. What do you think?
4/14/09
Decisions, decisions, decisions.
Last night's game was a big disappointment for the Twins' Fans: The bats were alive, but Slowey and Ayala were not on the top of their game, resulting to turning the game in the favor of the Blue Jays, pretty quickly at the late innings.
Here is a closer look to the win probability graph by fangraphs:
I marked 2 points with asterisks (*1, *2 and *3), because I think they were the turning points of the game and they were bad decisions by Ron Gardenhire:
*1: Kevin Slowey has been struggling throughout the game, but Gardenhire sends him in to start the 6th inning. At this point, the Twins are about 85% win probability. If Slowey left the game then, and the Twins won, he would have been credited with the win. Slowey allows a hit to Rolen. Instead of taking him out at that point, Gardenhire lets him face the next batter (in a manner similar to that allowing Liriano to face multiple hitters after he walked in a run with the bases loaded in the last game of the Chicago series). Overbay hits a home run and the Jays are within 2. A little too late, after facing 2 more batters and walking one, Gardenhire lifts Slowey for Guerrier. Guerrier finishes the inning and starts the next. Breslow replaces him in the 7th after he gives a hit and strikes out the only batter he faces. At this point, Gardenhire, uses Breslow again only to face a single lefty hitter and replaces him with Ayala who finishes the 7th giving a hit and driving a run with 2 outs to bring the Jays within 1 (6-5 Twins)
*2: Top of the 8th inning. You would think that Crain is the 8th inning man, esp. with Ayala having problems the previous inning, who can provide a bridge to Nathan. But this is not the case: Gardenhire keeps Ayala in. A double and a home run later, the Twins' win probability drops from 75% to 15% and the score is Jays 8, Twins 6. That was the biggest turning point of the game
*3: Bottom of the 8th, the Twins hitters are staging a comeback: Brendan Harris doubles to start the inning and goes to third with no outs on a wild pitch. Delmon Young is up. The Twins have a great batter and the best AL Centerfielder in Carlos Gomez on the bench, one would think that getting Gomez in to sacrifice Harris (or get a bunt base hit) would be the proper play (or at least have Young try for the sacrifice). The win probability with Harris at 3rd, nobody out and the Twins down by 2 runs, climbed up to 30%. Young strikes out. Gardenhire, still going for a 2-run homer instead of getting the man from third in with a sacrifice, substitutes Crede for Morales. Crede strikes out. Punto strikes out. Inning over.
Last season, Gardenhire's mismanagement of the pitching staff and the bullpen, cost the Twins the division championship. He was rewarded with a contract extension. Apparently he has not yet learned his lessons from last season. I hope he learns them pretty quickly before this season gets out of hand.
Here is a closer look to the win probability graph by fangraphs:
I marked 2 points with asterisks (*1, *2 and *3), because I think they were the turning points of the game and they were bad decisions by Ron Gardenhire:
*1: Kevin Slowey has been struggling throughout the game, but Gardenhire sends him in to start the 6th inning. At this point, the Twins are about 85% win probability. If Slowey left the game then, and the Twins won, he would have been credited with the win. Slowey allows a hit to Rolen. Instead of taking him out at that point, Gardenhire lets him face the next batter (in a manner similar to that allowing Liriano to face multiple hitters after he walked in a run with the bases loaded in the last game of the Chicago series). Overbay hits a home run and the Jays are within 2. A little too late, after facing 2 more batters and walking one, Gardenhire lifts Slowey for Guerrier. Guerrier finishes the inning and starts the next. Breslow replaces him in the 7th after he gives a hit and strikes out the only batter he faces. At this point, Gardenhire, uses Breslow again only to face a single lefty hitter and replaces him with Ayala who finishes the 7th giving a hit and driving a run with 2 outs to bring the Jays within 1 (6-5 Twins)
*2: Top of the 8th inning. You would think that Crain is the 8th inning man, esp. with Ayala having problems the previous inning, who can provide a bridge to Nathan. But this is not the case: Gardenhire keeps Ayala in. A double and a home run later, the Twins' win probability drops from 75% to 15% and the score is Jays 8, Twins 6. That was the biggest turning point of the game
*3: Bottom of the 8th, the Twins hitters are staging a comeback: Brendan Harris doubles to start the inning and goes to third with no outs on a wild pitch. Delmon Young is up. The Twins have a great batter and the best AL Centerfielder in Carlos Gomez on the bench, one would think that getting Gomez in to sacrifice Harris (or get a bunt base hit) would be the proper play (or at least have Young try for the sacrifice). The win probability with Harris at 3rd, nobody out and the Twins down by 2 runs, climbed up to 30%. Young strikes out. Gardenhire, still going for a 2-run homer instead of getting the man from third in with a sacrifice, substitutes Crede for Morales. Crede strikes out. Punto strikes out. Inning over.
Last season, Gardenhire's mismanagement of the pitching staff and the bullpen, cost the Twins the division championship. He was rewarded with a contract extension. Apparently he has not yet learned his lessons from last season. I hope he learns them pretty quickly before this season gets out of hand.
4/12/09
looking between the lines: Series one and two in the books.
The first 2 series of the season are in the books. As I promised, I will not be doing game analysis (there are just way too many of those, and most of them are great, already in the internets.) What I will be doing, is continue to look between the lines for facts about the team's performance that have not been stressed much as well as for clues about what a particular set of games, might imply for the near future.
The Twins lost the series to the Chicago White Sox at the US cellular field, 2-1, after winning Joe Crede's homecoming by a comfortable margin, mainly due to offensive issues the last 2 games.
So far this season the Twins are 3-4. What does that mean? Last year the Twins also started the season 3-4. Let's look at some of the specifics of the 2008 and 2009 teams' performances and try to see whether there is anything of note in this comparison:
After seven games in 2008: 3-4
team batting: .252/.295/.349 19 runs scored;
team pitching: 4.06 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 27 runs. 13.97 Pitches/IP, 5.83 K/BB, 4.77 K/9
After seven games in 2009: 3-4
team batting: .233/.306/.345, 26 runs scored;
team pitching: 5.16 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 37 runs. 15.87 Pitches/IP; 1.98 K/BB, 5.46 K/9.
There are 2 silver linings for the 2009 team:
a. they equaled the record of the 2008 team that went on to win 88 games, without Joe Mauer and by having a home series and an away series; the first 7 games of 2008 were at home against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and the Kansas City Royals.
b. the 2009 team seems more efficient with the bat than the 2008 team. It scored 7 more runs in the same 7 games with about equal team OPS. If this continues, and esp. if this offensive effort gets more equally distributed among games, is a very positive sign.
What went wrong?
The 2009 pitching in these first 7 games has not been as good as the 2008. The root cause is fairly obvious when one looks at the numbers: The Twins' pitchers have a harder time throwing strikes this season, compared to 2008. The number than speaks the most is the K/BB comparison: 5.83 for 2008 and just 1.98 for 2009. This translates to a higher number of pitches thrown per inning (15.87 vs. 13.97), and a higher WHIP (1.18 vs. 1.31), which in turn translates to more runs allowed (37 vs 27) and results to a higher ERA (4.06 vs. 5.16). An apparent positive note is the K/9 number: 5.46 for 2009 vs 4.77 for 2008. However, at this point, I am not convinced that this is not an artifact of increased wildness and batters simply swinging outside the zone.
The bottom line from the first 2 series is that:
What is coming up? A 3 game home series with the Toronto Blue Jays and the return of Scott Baker who pitched 7 very efficient innings in a Florida State League game with the Ft. Myers Miracle last week. One of Philip Humber, R. A. Dickey and Brian Duensing will probably leave the team when Baker returns. I think that the obvious choice is Brian Duensing, not because he pitched worse than Philip Humber, but because, unlike Humber, he has options. R.A. Dickey has earned a spot and should be with the Twins in a bullpen role.
Position Player MVP of the series at Chicago:
Nick Punto
10 AB, 5 H, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K; .500/.583/.500
Best Pitcher of the series at Chicago:
Matt Guerrier
1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K; 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP, 13.53 K/9
The Twins lost the series to the Chicago White Sox at the US cellular field, 2-1, after winning Joe Crede's homecoming by a comfortable margin, mainly due to offensive issues the last 2 games.
So far this season the Twins are 3-4. What does that mean? Last year the Twins also started the season 3-4. Let's look at some of the specifics of the 2008 and 2009 teams' performances and try to see whether there is anything of note in this comparison:
After seven games in 2008: 3-4
team batting: .252/.295/.349 19 runs scored;
team pitching: 4.06 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 27 runs. 13.97 Pitches/IP, 5.83 K/BB, 4.77 K/9
After seven games in 2009: 3-4
team batting: .233/.306/.345, 26 runs scored;
team pitching: 5.16 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 37 runs. 15.87 Pitches/IP; 1.98 K/BB, 5.46 K/9.
There are 2 silver linings for the 2009 team:
a. they equaled the record of the 2008 team that went on to win 88 games, without Joe Mauer and by having a home series and an away series; the first 7 games of 2008 were at home against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and the Kansas City Royals.
b. the 2009 team seems more efficient with the bat than the 2008 team. It scored 7 more runs in the same 7 games with about equal team OPS. If this continues, and esp. if this offensive effort gets more equally distributed among games, is a very positive sign.
What went wrong?
The 2009 pitching in these first 7 games has not been as good as the 2008. The root cause is fairly obvious when one looks at the numbers: The Twins' pitchers have a harder time throwing strikes this season, compared to 2008. The number than speaks the most is the K/BB comparison: 5.83 for 2008 and just 1.98 for 2009. This translates to a higher number of pitches thrown per inning (15.87 vs. 13.97), and a higher WHIP (1.18 vs. 1.31), which in turn translates to more runs allowed (37 vs 27) and results to a higher ERA (4.06 vs. 5.16). An apparent positive note is the K/9 number: 5.46 for 2009 vs 4.77 for 2008. However, at this point, I am not convinced that this is not an artifact of increased wildness and batters simply swinging outside the zone.
The bottom line from the first 2 series is that:
- The 2009 Twins are keeping pace with the 2008 Twins where it matters: W-L record
- The biggest issue with the pitching has been an inability to throw strikes, which I think is very correctable for this squad, because throwing strikes has always been a power of this group and these pitchers did not overnight collectively forgot how to do it
- The biggest issue with the offense has been very similar to that of the 2008 team: Run distribution per game. I am not sure that this is correctable, but it is concerning. The Twins' bats seem to act in unison: there are days that everyone hits and there are days than nobody hits. That said, the 2009 team's offense so far has been more powerful than that the 2008 team's, and Joe Mauer will return soon
What is coming up? A 3 game home series with the Toronto Blue Jays and the return of Scott Baker who pitched 7 very efficient innings in a Florida State League game with the Ft. Myers Miracle last week. One of Philip Humber, R. A. Dickey and Brian Duensing will probably leave the team when Baker returns. I think that the obvious choice is Brian Duensing, not because he pitched worse than Philip Humber, but because, unlike Humber, he has options. R.A. Dickey has earned a spot and should be with the Twins in a bullpen role.
Position Player MVP of the series at Chicago:
Nick Punto
10 AB, 5 H, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K; .500/.583/.500
Best Pitcher of the series at Chicago:
Matt Guerrier
1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K; 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP, 13.53 K/9
4/11/09
Looking at tomorrow
Tough loss today, but the Twins are still in first place (albeit in a 3-way tie) in the AL Central. Tomorrow's game looks promising because the Twins are hitting a collective .317/.349/.466 of Chicago's projected starter, Mark Buehrle. Some notable performers against Buehrle:
Michael Cuddyer (69 AB) .304/.333/.493
Justin Morneau (38 AB) .237/.279 /.421
Nick Punto (33 AB) .303/.294/.394
Mike Redmond (28 AB) .500/.483/.571
Delmon Young (18 AB) .389/.421/.611
Brendan Harris (16 AB) .313/.389 /.375
Alexi Casilla (13 AB) .231/.333/.231
Carlos Gomez (11 AB) .545/.545/1.091
Denard Span (6 AB) .333/.429/.833
Jason Kubel (3 AB) .000/.250/.000
Based on this, I expect Redmond to start at catcher, Gomez and Span to be on the field as one of Cuddyer and Young, while the other is the DH, with Kubel sitting. I suspect that Crede will start at 3B, but I will not be surprised if Harris takes his spot.
The numbers match up looks really good for the Twins.
Michael Cuddyer (69 AB) .304/.333/.493
Justin Morneau (38 AB) .237/.279 /.421
Nick Punto (33 AB) .303/.294/.394
Mike Redmond (28 AB) .500/.483/.571
Delmon Young (18 AB) .389/.421/.611
Brendan Harris (16 AB) .313/.389 /.375
Alexi Casilla (13 AB) .231/.333/.231
Carlos Gomez (11 AB) .545/.545/1.091
Denard Span (6 AB) .333/.429/.833
Jason Kubel (3 AB) .000/.250/.000
Based on this, I expect Redmond to start at catcher, Gomez and Span to be on the field as one of Cuddyer and Young, while the other is the DH, with Kubel sitting. I suspect that Crede will start at 3B, but I will not be surprised if Harris takes his spot.
The numbers match up looks really good for the Twins.
4/10/09
This might summarize tonight's game
and, yes, the Twins are leading the Central.
(if you do not know why I selected that tune, it was because that is the song playing in the Cellular field before Crede's first plate appearance there. After his home run it was just booos)
Cold weather and knuckleballs: R.A. Dickey and the season opener in Chicago
It is a somewhat accepted myth that knuckleball pitchers are doing better in domes (part of the Twins' intrigue by R.A. Dickey.) What is driving this argument is the theory that the lack of wind in a dome would not affect a knuckleball, allowing it to have its fluttering motion that makes it difficult for the catchers to catch and hitters to hit.
So, would it have been better for the Twins to start Dickey in the dome and give someone like Blackburn, Dickey's Cellular Field start tonight?
The answer is no.
There is another physical factor that affects a knuckleball more than the wind: Air density. The colder the temperature, the denser the air, the less the spin. And throwing a knuckleball with no spin, is like throwing a brick to the batters. I am not going to in depth on the physics of a knuckleball, other than try to explain in basic terms what makes it flutter and then I will go into the temperature stuff:
Here is a knuckleball grip (Hoyt Wilhelm):
It is very similar to that of a fastball, but instead of running the middle and index fingers along the seams and trying to hold onto the ball only by the fingertips and thumb tip, the nails of the index and middle fingers dig into the seams, the first knuckles are close on the seams (thus the misnomer; a "nailball" would be more appropriate), which also has the effect of placing the ball closer to the palm, making it more of a change up grip.
the above image shows a knuckleball grip in the manner of a two-seam fastball (sinker), Dickey's grip is across the seams, in the manner of a four-seam fastball:
Both grips have the same effect, with Dickey's resulting to a slightly faster ball towards the plate (low 70s). Dickey, also throws the traditional, two-seam variation that results in a ball thrown about 5 mph slower. So tonight, when you see knuckleballs in the high 60s, low 70s, he is using the 4-seam variation, and when you see knuckleballs in the mid to low 60s, he is using the 2-seam variation.
Why the motion: ideally, a knuckleball from the pitcher to the plate will do only one half spin, moving the seams that held them into the side (90 degrees). The drag (air resistance) of the seams (which increases relatively by the lower velocity of the ball towards the plate than traditional pitches) will cause the ball to have an increased sideways movement, thus "flutter". The argument against the wind is that a lateral (side to side) wind, would exaggerate the natural lateral movement of the knuckleball, making it more "wild".
That's what throwing a knuckleball is all about. How about the temperature effects? Higher temperature decreases the density of air molecules and low temperature increases their density. When it is cold and the air molecules are denser, this has two effects: a. it slows the velocity of the ball which, in turn, b. decreases the spin of the ball, thus making a knuckleball, flutter better. Here is an extreme example to make it clearer: Cold increases water molecule density. Is it easier to push your finger through liquid water, or through ice? The same principle applies to the air.
If you are not yet convinced:
Tonight's game conditions are perfect for R.A. Dickey.
So, would it have been better for the Twins to start Dickey in the dome and give someone like Blackburn, Dickey's Cellular Field start tonight?
The answer is no.
There is another physical factor that affects a knuckleball more than the wind: Air density. The colder the temperature, the denser the air, the less the spin. And throwing a knuckleball with no spin, is like throwing a brick to the batters. I am not going to in depth on the physics of a knuckleball, other than try to explain in basic terms what makes it flutter and then I will go into the temperature stuff:
Here is a knuckleball grip (Hoyt Wilhelm):
It is very similar to that of a fastball, but instead of running the middle and index fingers along the seams and trying to hold onto the ball only by the fingertips and thumb tip, the nails of the index and middle fingers dig into the seams, the first knuckles are close on the seams (thus the misnomer; a "nailball" would be more appropriate), which also has the effect of placing the ball closer to the palm, making it more of a change up grip.
the above image shows a knuckleball grip in the manner of a two-seam fastball (sinker), Dickey's grip is across the seams, in the manner of a four-seam fastball:
Both grips have the same effect, with Dickey's resulting to a slightly faster ball towards the plate (low 70s). Dickey, also throws the traditional, two-seam variation that results in a ball thrown about 5 mph slower. So tonight, when you see knuckleballs in the high 60s, low 70s, he is using the 4-seam variation, and when you see knuckleballs in the mid to low 60s, he is using the 2-seam variation.
Why the motion: ideally, a knuckleball from the pitcher to the plate will do only one half spin, moving the seams that held them into the side (90 degrees). The drag (air resistance) of the seams (which increases relatively by the lower velocity of the ball towards the plate than traditional pitches) will cause the ball to have an increased sideways movement, thus "flutter". The argument against the wind is that a lateral (side to side) wind, would exaggerate the natural lateral movement of the knuckleball, making it more "wild".
That's what throwing a knuckleball is all about. How about the temperature effects? Higher temperature decreases the density of air molecules and low temperature increases their density. When it is cold and the air molecules are denser, this has two effects: a. it slows the velocity of the ball which, in turn, b. decreases the spin of the ball, thus making a knuckleball, flutter better. Here is an extreme example to make it clearer: Cold increases water molecule density. Is it easier to push your finger through liquid water, or through ice? The same principle applies to the air.
If you are not yet convinced:
- Here is a New York Times article, where Mike Marshall, the former Cy Young winner, explains why a knuckleball is aided by the cold
- As a further support, Dickey's ERA last season in the open was more than 2 points lower than in a dome (4.48 vs. 6.52), opponents had a .751 OPS in the open vs .952 in the dome, his ERA was 3.66 in night games vs. 8.50 in day games, and opponents had a .715 OPS in day games vs. .980 in night games
- Hoyt Wilhem threw the only no-hitter by a knuckleball pitcher on September 20, 1958 against the Yankees in a cold and drizzly afternoon
Tonight's game conditions are perfect for R.A. Dickey.
4/9/09
Who is where in the Twins' minor league system - part B: pitchers
In the previous post, I listed all the current Twins' minor league position players with their former and current affiliations. Here is a list of all the 98 pitchers in the system, including whether they are left handed (*), their age in the middle of the 2009 season, the team they played for 2008 (if they played in other organizations, the level is included instead.), and the team they are playing for in 2009. The ones with no 2009 team assigned are either in extended spring training or in the Dominican Republic. I will try to keep it up to date and please let me know whether I have listed anyone wrongly or omitted anyone.
Player age 2008 team 2009 team
Ramon Acosta 22 DSL
*Omar Alcala 22 ELZ
Michael Allen 22 BEL BEL
Edison Alvarez 20 DSL
Henry Arias 24 A FTM
Santos Arias 22 BEL FTM
Daniel Berlind 21 BEL
*Elliot Biddle 22 GCL
Steven Blevins 22 ELZ BEL
David Bromberg 21 BEL FTM
Alex Burnett 21 FTM FTM
*Alvaro Caceres 23 DSL
Eliecer Cardenas 21 DSL
*Kyle Carr 22 ELZ
Carlos Carrillo 19 DSL
Cesar Ciurcina 18 DSL
Aaron Craig 23 FTM
Alex Curry 21 ELZ
Robert Delaney 24 NB NB
Cole Devries 24 FTM NB
Raynard Doran 21 DSL
*Brian Duensing 26 ROC
*Jarrad Eacott 18 ELZ
Blair Erickson 24 FTM FTM
Matthew Fox 26 FTM NB
Armando Gabino 25 NB ROC
Jhon Garcia 22 DSL
*Martire Garcia 19 DSL
Deivi Germosen 19 DSL
*Jose Gonzalez 19 DSL
*Mike Gosling 28 AAA ROC
Wilmer Guanchez 22 GCL
Deolis Guerra 20 FTM FTM
Pedro Guerra 19 DSL
Carlos Gutierrez 22 FTM FTM
Ben Hendrickson 28 AAA ROC
B.J. Hermsen 19
Danny Hernandez 22 FTM BEL
*Sean Henn 28 MLB ROC
Steven Hirschfeld 23 BEL FTM
Philip Humber 26 ROC
Shooter Hunt 22 BEL BEL
*Edgar Ibarra 20 GCL
Jason Jones 26 AAA ROC
*Ben Julianel 29 NB ROC
Bobby Keppel 27 AAA ROC
Brian Kirwan 22 BEL BEL
Timothy Lahey 27 ROC ROC
Bobby Lanigan 22 ELZ BEL
Curtis Leavitt 22 ELZ BEL
*Andrei Lobanov 19 GCL
*Jose Lugo 25 FTM NB
Jeffrey Manship 24 NB NB
*David Martin 23 BEL
Lee Martin 23 ELZ BEL
Frank Mata 25 NB NB
Michael McCardell 24 BEL FTM
*Jean Mijares 21 GCL
*Jose Mijares 24 MLB ROC
*Michael Mopas 21 GCL
Kelvin Mota 21 GCL
*Ryan Mullins 25 NB NB
Kevin Mulvey 24 ROC ROC
Miguel Munoz 20 GCL
Khol Nanney 24 GCL
*Daniel Osterbrock 22 ELZ BEL
Leonardo Parra 22 DSL
*Carmen Pignatiello 26 MLB ROC
Yohan Pino 24 NB NB
Bruce Pugh 20 GCL
Jay Rainville 23 NB NB
Renzo Reverol 18 DSL
*Henry Reyes 24 BEL BEL
*Tyler Robertson 21 FTM FTM
Dominique Rodgers 24 BEL
Danny Rondon 22 ELZ BEL
Adrian Salcedo 18 DSL
Angelo Sanchez 20 GCL
Eddy Santana 21 DSL
* Reid Santos 26 AAA ROC
Mauro Schiavoni 22 GCL
Anthony Slama 25 FTM NB
Oswaldo Sosa 23 NB NB
*Spencer Steedley 24 FTM FTM
Tom Stuifbergen 20 GCL
Anthony Swarzak 23 ROC ROC
*Michael Tarsi 22 BEL BEL
*Joe Testa 23 FTM BEL
Bradley Tippett 21 BEL BEL
Michael Tonkin 19 GCL
Ludovicus Van Mil 24 BEL FTM
Lesmir Vargas 22 DSL
Orlando Villaroel 19 DSL
Kyle Waldrop 23 FTM FTM
Zachary Ward 25 NB NB
Blayne Weller 19 DSL
Matthew Williams 22 FTM FTM
Thomas Wright 21 ELZ BEL
Who is where in the Twins' minor league system - part A: position players
In order to keep up with the different developments in the Twins' minor league system, I created a database of all the minor league players in the organization. Here is a list of all the 102 position players in the system, including whether they are batting left handed (*) or are switch hitters (#), their age in the middle of the 2009 season, the team they played for 2008 (if they played in other organizations, the level is included instead.), and the team they are playing for in 2009. The ones with no 2009 team assigned are either in extended spring training or in the Dominican Republic. I will try to keep it up to date and please let me know whether I have listed anyone wrongly or omitted anyone. Pitchers to follow.
Player age 2008 team 2009 team
#Oswaldo Arcia 18 DSL
Jhonatan Arias 20 DSL
Tim Atherton 19 GCL
Joe Benson 21 BEL FTM
*James Beresford 20 ELZ BEL
Daniel Berg 24 NB FTM
Evan Bigley 22 ELZ BEL
Juan Blanco 20 DSL
*David Bromberg 21 BEL
*Brian Buscher 28 MLB MLB
Drew Butera 25 NB ROC
Felix Caro 19 DSL
Chris Cates 24 BEL FTM
Hyeong-rok Choi 19 GCL
*Hyun-wook Choi 19 GCL
Jeff Christy 25 ROC ROC
Dominic De La Osa 23 ELZ BEL
#Estarlin De Los Santos 22 BEL FTM
Allan de San Miguel 21 FTM NB
*Brian Dinkelman 25 NB NB
Mark Dolenc 24 BEL FTM
Jair Fernandez 22 BEL FTM
Yancarlo Franco 20 DSL
Joe Gaetti 27 NB NB
Lesther Galvan 19 DSL
Toby Gardenhire 26 NB NB
Wilfy Gil 19 DSL
Jonathan Goncalves 20 GCL
*Michael Gonzales 21 GCL
Xavier Gonzalez 20 GCL
Jakub Hajtmar 22 GCL
Nathan Hanson 22 ELZ BEL
Frederic Hanvi 20 GCL
*Michael Harrington 23 ELZ BEL
#Aaron Hicks 19 GCL
Anderson Hidalgo 20 GCL
Justin Huber 26 MLB ROC
Luke Hughes 24 ROC ROC
Jae-Hyung Jang 22 GCL
Paul Kelly 22 BEL BEL
Tyler Ladendorf 21 GCL
Jeff Lanning 22 ELZ
#Herbert Lara 21 GCL
Danny Lehmann 23 FTM FTM
Rene Leveret 23 BEL FTM
Ozzie Lewis 23 BEL BEL
*Wang-Wei Lin 21 GCL
*Erik Lis 25 NB NB
Alejandro Machado 27 ROC ROC
Matthew Macri 27 ROC ROC
*Dustin Martin 25 NB ROC
#Yorby Martinez 20 DSL
Jean Carlos Mercedes 21 DSL
Angel Morales 19 ELZ BEL
#Jose Morales 26 ROC
*Matt Moses 24 NB NB
Yancarlos Ortiz 24 FTM NB
*Daniel Ortiz 19 GCL
Nicholas Papasan 21 ELZ
*Chris Parmelee 21 BEL FTM
Jairo Perez 21 DSL
Brock Peterson 25 ROC ROC
Ben Petsch 24 BEL
Randy Pina 18 DSL
Josmil Pinto 20 GCL
Trevor Plouffe 23 ROC ROC
Juan Portes 23 FTM NB
*Jason Pridie 25 ROC ROC
Wilson Ramos 21 FTM NB
Daniel Rams 20 ELZ
*Ben Revere 21 BEL FTM
Juan Richardson 22 BEL BEL
*Whitney Robbins 24 FTM NB
*Brandon Roberts 24 NB NB
Jairo Rodriguez 20 DSL
Daniel Rohlfing 20 GCL
Deibinson Romero 22 BEL FTM
#Nicholas Romero 21 ELZ BEL
Henry Sanchez 22 GCL BEL
Rafael Sanchez 19 DSL
#Daniel Santana 18 DSL
Ramon Santana 23 BEL BEL
Eric Santiago 21 BEL
*Adan Severino 22 ELZ BEL
Eliel Sierra 23 DSL
#Steven Singleton 23 FTM FTM
#Yangervis Solarte 21 FTM FTM
Manuel Soliman 19 DSL
Alexander Soto 22 ELZ BEL
Eli Tintor 24 FTM BEL
#Matt Tolbert 27 MLB ROC
Steven Tolleson 25 NB NB
*Andrew Thompson 22 DL BEL
*Rene Tosoni 22 FTM NB
Daniel Valencia 24 NB NB
Lesmir Vargas 22 DSL
Carlos Vasquez 18 DSL
*Jonathan Waltenbury 21 ELZ BEL
Tommy Watkins 29 ROC ROC
Matthew Williams 22 BEL
*Reggie Williams 20 GCL
David Winfree 23 NB ROC
The Seattle series in review
The first series of the year is over. The Twins tied 2-2 with the Seattle Mariners and are in second place in the AL Central, half a game behind the Kansas City Royals, half a game a head of the Chicago White Sox, a game ahead of the Detroit Tigers and a game and a half ahead of the win-less Cleveland Indians.
This series concluded with a classic pitcher's duo in which Jarrod Washburn, outlasted Glen Perkins to lead his Mariners to a 2-0 matinee victory. A few observations from this series, in a random order:
First Series MVP:
Denard Span
First Series Best Pitcher:
Glen Perkins
Next series: 3 games against the White Sox in Chicago. Probable Starters:
Friday: R.A. Dickey vs. Jose Conteras
Saturday: Fransisco Liriano vs. Bartolo Colon
Sunday: Nick Blackburn vs. TBD
On another note, Rochester beat Syracuse 7-4, powered by home runs by Martin, Plouffe, Winfree and Hughes. Interestingly, Tim Lahey was the closer today.
The New Britain game in New Hampshire just started and the Rock Cats are winning 1-0 on the top of the 1st after a Rene Tosoni home run at the first AB of the game. Jay Raiville is pitching.
This series concluded with a classic pitcher's duo in which Jarrod Washburn, outlasted Glen Perkins to lead his Mariners to a 2-0 matinee victory. A few observations from this series, in a random order:
- The Mariners are not as bad as they look on paper. The addition of Guterriez and Chavez in the outfield will help them win several games (one could argue that today's was one of them) with the glove. With the Angel's rotation a huge question mark and the Rangers and A's unpredictable, it could be possible that the Mariners might contend this season, if they get the right bounces like they did in this series. A split with the Mariners at home might sound discouraging, but lets not forget that the Twins last season spit a home series with the Rays and we all know what happened to the Rays...
- There were a lot of nerves at the starting rotation, but Perkins and Liriano performed very well pitching 8 and 7 innings of 0.88 and 0.57 WHIP, respectively. As a matter of fact, that was Perkins' best start with the Twins.
- Having Crede at third base will be a huge factor for the Twins, even if his bat is slow to wake up. Just in this series Crede made at least 5 plays that Buscher could not make in his dreams.
- The biggest surprise as far as the bats go, was Denard Span who followed an awful spring with a .308/.438/.538 performance, one home run, a team leading 4 RBI and 1 SB. Other than Span, Morneau, Kubel and Harris (who owns Washburn) had good series with the bat.
- Nathan was perfect in his single save opportunity and Guerrier, who gave only one hit in 2.1 innings (0.43 WHIP), showed promise that last season might have just been a fluke
First Series MVP:
Denard Span
First Series Best Pitcher:
Glen Perkins
Next series: 3 games against the White Sox in Chicago. Probable Starters:
Friday: R.A. Dickey vs. Jose Conteras
Saturday: Fransisco Liriano vs. Bartolo Colon
Sunday: Nick Blackburn vs. TBD
On another note, Rochester beat Syracuse 7-4, powered by home runs by Martin, Plouffe, Winfree and Hughes. Interestingly, Tim Lahey was the closer today.
The New Britain game in New Hampshire just started and the Rock Cats are winning 1-0 on the top of the 1st after a Rene Tosoni home run at the first AB of the game. Jay Raiville is pitching.
4/8/09
Twins-Mariners 6-5
There were a lot written about last night's game. It was indeed a game for the ages. I am sure that there is not a single Twins' blog or newspaper site that does not have a myriad of descriptions for the game, so I will not add to them. What I will add is the following, because a picture is worth more than 1000 words:
This is the win probability graph from fangraphs.com that shows the swing in the game in the 9th inning. Fangraphs has a live scoreboard that gives live graphs like the one above with win probability updated with each at bat. If you are not familiar with the site, it is a very enriching way to follow the game!
The third game of the series is tonight and Kevin Slowey is facing Twins' alum Carlos Silva.
This is the win probability graph from fangraphs.com that shows the swing in the game in the 9th inning. Fangraphs has a live scoreboard that gives live graphs like the one above with win probability updated with each at bat. If you are not familiar with the site, it is a very enriching way to follow the game!
The third game of the series is tonight and Kevin Slowey is facing Twins' alum Carlos Silva.
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