The tenth inning stretch

RHP Jeremy Hellickson (Rays)

Free Agent:

RHP Odrisamer Despaigne (Cuban defector)
LHP Misael Siverio (Cuban defector)
UT Chone Figgins

IF Justin Turner

RHP Matt Guerrier

RHP Raisel Iglesias (Cuban Defector)

SS Erisbel Arruebarruena (Cuban defector)

LHP Chris Capuano
RHP Bronson Arroyo
RHP Suk-Min Yoon

1/23/14

Twins' LHP Andrew Albers' departure and the curse of Jim Rantz

Today the Minnesota Twins have finalized their agreement with South Korea's Hanwha Eagles, selling LHP Andrew Albers' contract. It is a good move for Albers who will be compensated close to $1 million, while he would have had a hard time cracking the Twins' and potentially even the Red Wings' rotations, after the acquisitions of Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey at the major league level and Kris Johnson and Sean Gilmartin at the minor league level.

Albers was the recipient of the 2013 Jim Rantz award as the Minnesota Twins' minor league pitcher of the year. Since its inception in 2003, only one pitcher who won the award (Kyle Gibson) is still with the Twins and, arguably, bad luck followed every single recipient and in most cases within one year from winning this award?

Is there a curse of Jim Rantz? I am not sure, but here is a list of the recipients and their respective misfortunes. The players who had something happen within a year are listed in bold:

2013: Andrew Albers - Contract Sold to South Korean's Hanwha Eagles 2014
2012: BJ Hermsen - Removed off the 40 man roster 2013
2011: Liam Hendriks - Designated for Assignement 2013
2010: Kyle Gibson - Tommy John Surgery 2011
2009: David Bromberg - Released 2012
2008: Anthony Slama - released 2013
2007: Kevin Slowey - Traded 2011
2006: Matt Garza - Traded 2007
2005: Fransisco Liriano - Tommy John Surgery 2006
2004: Scott Baker - Tommy John Surgery 2012
2003: Jesse Crain - Shoulder Surgery 2007, 2013

Thus, aspiring not to win this award might be something that Twins' prospects should consider.

1/22/14

2014 Minnesota Twins Spring Training Coverage & Sponsoring Opportunities

Spring is always celebrated in this blog. Very much like nature that starts to come to life after a winter-long hibernation, baseball teams come back to life in new forms and shapes with a mix of old and new faces. And, like the rebirth of perennial flowers, baseball teams are given a new life and a new start for the upcoming season with zero losses. It in an extremely hopeful time of the year in the life of anyone who likes baseball. And it is something to look forward to when the January temperatures are approaching digits they should not be approaching...

I have been covering the Twins' Spring Training from Fort Myers and remotely for the last few seasons, and the upcoming season will be no exception. Here is what to expect for the 2014 Twins' baseball coverage in this space, starting shortly:

Three Guides to Twins' Spring Training: A guide on the logistics (how to get there, where to stay, etc) updated from my experiences last spring, a guide on the Spring Training facilities and Hammond Stadium, updated for the Hammond Stadium renovations, and a food guide. Last year's logistics' guide is here, baseball guide here, and the food guide here. These guides will be up by early February the latest, so they can help planning.
In depth analysis of the battles for roster spots, utilizing tools like the Spring Training Dashboards that help visualize individual performance throughout the Spring and keep tract of the roster moves as well. This will be interesting this year, since there will be a battle for the 5th rotation spot among 3 players without options (Deduno, Diamond, Worley), plus there are a lot of new (and new/old) faces who hope for a roster spot, making the Twins' bench a work in progress to be assembled in Spring Training.
In depth reports on games and players from there, both major leaguers and minor leaguers, including scouting reports, and hopefully new insight on players, like indicating that Baxendale looks like he might have a monster 2013, when a lot of people never know who he was, that Kevin Correia might be serviceable and have an ok season, when there was collective lamenting about his signing in 2013, and that (in 2012) Scott Baker looked in a lot of pain in his first start back, while the general feeling was that he was ok and ready to get back, before his operation.
I do make a point to have a look at as many Twins' minor leaguers as possible; this translates into first hand scouting reports and a prospect list. I would have a hard time making a prospect list if I did not see most of them play.
Lots of pictures of Twins' players, including action pictures.

Another point, because I was asked a couple of times, but just recently warmed up to the idea: I am open to the idea and inviting sponsorships of any of the above content. If you would like to sponsor anything, please drop me an email (thetenthinningstretch@gmail.com) There is pretty high readership on Spring Training coverage here, so these piece are good places to reach Twins' fans, if you so chose. Lots of eyes are looking at these pieces. If you want to sponsor any of the guides, please let me know soon, because they will be up shortly.

Hope springs eternal in the human breast;

Man never is, but always to be blessed:

The soul, uneasy and confined from home,

Rests and expatiates in a life to come.

-Alexander Pope, An Essay on Man

1/20/14

Sadly, a piece of Twins history is no more

1/17/14

Weekly summary of the Twins moves and targets: 1/17/2014

Targets:

Trade:

RHP Jeremy Hellickson (Rays)

Free Agent:

RHP Odrisamer Despaigne (Cuban defector)
LHP Misael Siverio (Cuban defector)
UT Chone Figgins

RHP Raisel Iglesias (Cuban Defector)

RHP Masahiro Tanaka

SS Erisbel Arruebarruena (Cuban defector)

LHP Chris Capuano
RHP Bronson Arroyo
RHP Suk-Min Yoon

1/15/14

Minnesota Twins and 2006 Eastern League top prospects: Two out of three ain't bad

Here is an image of the top 3 prospects at the Eastern League in 2006. Two of them will meet in the Twins' rotation in 2014 and there are rumors that the Twins are interested in singing the third one (a former Twin) as well. Other familar names down that list: Carlos Gomez, 8th and Alexi Casilla 15th. Here it is:

1/13/14

What the Twins are getting with Ricky Nolasco: A comparison with a former Twins' starter.

Last month, I examined in depth the re-signing of Mike Pelfrey to a two year contact by the Minnesota Twins, suggesting that he, indeed, can be a steal for the Twins for many reasons. Today, I am looking at the biggest free agent spending from the Minnesota Twins ever, the signing of Ricky Nolasco to a 4 year, $49 million contact with an option of a 5th year, just before Thanksgiving. In the near future, I will look at the signing of Phil Hughes, to complete the profiles of the 2 new, and one not so new, Twins' starting pitchers.

Rickey Nolasco by far is the most experienced pitcher in the Twins rotation and the Twins have him under contract for his age 31 through 34 seasons with the option covering his age 35 season. How good is Ricky Nolasco? The general sentiment, both from the main press and blogs covering the Twins has been that Nolasco is a mid-rotation type of starter, who can eat innings, and it is fairly durable (in a Carl Pavano way) but by no means he is a top of the rotation starter.

Let's dig a little deeper now that the dust has settled and the holiday period has passed. Nolasco has been a darling in this space since about 5 years before the Twins signed him, because in his early years of pitching for the Marlins (look at this post from 11/2008, for example) he has been among elite company in pitching rankings. His numbers have been up and down the past few seasons after the first seasons with the Marlins (which earn him 3 opening day starts for them,) thus it make sense to look a bit deeper. And the way I will be looking is utilizing PE, xPE, FIP, xFIP and SIERA (please read this writeup for a primer about these measurements, what they do and the reasoning for their use). I am also doing a couple more things. I compare him to a particular Twins' pitcher, and using color coding, I am examining how both of their annual performances fit in a good rotation, using this key:

Here are the numbers:

Nolasco's are on top, and Brad Radke's are on the bottom. Because of the inability to calculate xFIP and SIERA in the early year's of Radke's career, I have added FIP as well. However, as I show here, xFIP (and SIERA) correlate better with xPE than FIP, so the xPE comparisons are close to xFIP and SIERA comparisons.

Based on this, Nolasco has a season (age 26) where he performed like an Ace, 2 seasons (ages 25 and 27) where he performed as a number one or two, two seasons that he performed as number two or three (age 28 and age 30), two seasons that he performed as a number three or four (age 23 and 29) and one replacement level season (age 24.) Clearly, his performance overall has been better than Brad Radke's performance overall.

A couple more comparison charts:

Here is Nolasco's and Radke's FIP compared annually since season age 22 (just for Radke, Nolasco was not in the bigs then) :

For the same age, other than age 24, Nolasco has had a very similar, but lower FIP than Radke in every season. and in the ages 26 and 30 seasons (that was 2013 for Nolasco), Nolasco's FIP was significantly lower than Radke's.

And here are their xPE comparisons (higher is better) over the same span:

The xPE paints a bit of a more dramatic picture: other than the ages 24 and 28 (this is a difference with FIP) season, Nolasco's pitching was much better than Radke's at the same ages. However, there is a potential tale of caution, not obvious with the FIP chart: Looking at both xPE and FIP, Radke's peak was his age 28-32 seasons with age 31 being his absolute best, before the shoulder issues kicked. Nolasco's FIP is low enough in his age 30 season, but his xPE from his age 28 season one, has not quite reached his xPE peak of his career best (so far) at age 26. The jump in his age 30 season is encouraging and hopefully indicates that the best is still to come and Nolasco is indeed still in his peak years, but the drop is something to keep in mind.

So what do the Twins have in Nolasco? A pitcher who has pitcher close to, but better overall, than Brad Radke in a year by year comparison and who has been top of the rotation pitcher. And based on the regard that the Twins' fanbase has for Brad Radke, an

1/10/14

Weekly summary of the Twins moves and targets: 1/10/2014

Here is the summary of the moves the Minnesota Twins did and the players they expressed interest in this week (the links will take you to reports). As far as "targets" go, I am listing players that the Twins reportedly expressed interest in and not players who baseball writers and other thought that they would be a good fit or may fill a need. The targets identified past weeks are still in the list unless they signed elsewhere. Not any transactions this Holiday week, but some additional interesting targets.

As a reminder, you can see all the Twins' weekly transactions and targets in reverse chronological order here.

Moves:

Trades:

No trades last week

In:

Re-singed IF Eric Farris to a minor league contact (1/3)
Signed UT Corey Wimberly to a minor league contact with an invitation to Spring Training (1/4)

Out:

No transactions last week

The current Twins' 40-man roster is here and contains 21 pitchers and 19 position players for a total of 40 spots.

Targets:

Trade:

RHP Jeremy Hellickson (Rays)

Free Agent:

RHP Raisel Iglesias (Cuban Defector)

RHP Masahiro Tanaka

SS Erisbel Arruebarruena (Cuban defector)

LHP Chris Capuano
RHP Bronson Arroyo
RHP Suk-Min Yoon

1/9/14

Full list of the players participating in the 2014 Twins Spring Training

Today the Twins announced the 23 non-roster players who were invited to the 2014 Spring Training. This makes a total of 63 players attending. This is pending any transactions in the following couple of months.

Here are all the players participating in the Twins' Spring Training by position and with the known assigned uniform numbers, with the 40 men roster players in bold:

LHPs

38 Logan Darnell
58 Scott Diamond
52 Brian Duensing
83 Sean Gilmartin
81 Matt Hoffman
60 Edgar Ibarra
53 Kris Johnson
15 Glen Perkins
63 Brooks Raley
56 Caleb Thielbar
64 Aaron Thompson

RHPs

61 Jared Burton
30 Kevin Correia
21 Samuel Deduno
50 Casey Fien
44 Kyle Gibson
76 Deolis Guerra
45 Phil Hughes
65 Trevor May
66 Alex Meyer
47 Ricky Nolasco
48 Lester Oliveros
37 Mike Pelfrey
54 Yohan Pino
57 Ryan Pressly
51 Anthony Swarzak
59 Michael Tonkin
49 Vance Worley

Catchers

26 Eric Fryer
12 Chris Herrmann
73 Kyle Knudson
82 Matt Koch
43 Josmil Pinto
84 Dan Rohlfing
8 Kurt Suzuki
85 Stuart Turner

Infielders

11 Jason Bartlett
77 James Beresford
17 Doug Bernier
55 Chris Colabello
2 Brian Dozier
5 Eduardo Escobar
25 Pedro Florimon
7 Joe Mauer
24 Trevor Plouffe
78 Jorge Polanco
79 Deibinson Romero
72 Miguel Sano
39 Danny Santana
68 Kennys Vargas
71 Brandon Waring

Outfielders

31 Oswaldo Arcia
70 Byron Buxton
32 Aaron Hicks
67 Max Kepler
13 Jason Kubel
19 Darin Mastroianni
80 Jermaine Mitchell
27 Chris Parmelee
1 Alex Presley
62 Chris Rahl
22 Wilkin Ramirez
16 Josh Willingham

1/7/14

Clutch hitting and pitching and the 2013 Twins.

"Clutch" is a word that has been used to describe the players who go above and beyond the norm and perform highly in difficult situations in close games: The guy who comes into the game with 2 outs and the bases loaded, down three in the bottom of the ninth and hits a grand slam off a closer who never blew a save. The pitcher who comes in with bases loaded and no outs, up one on the bottom of the ninth and strikes out the side to save the game. Whether or not there are players out there who are "clutch" and consistently outperform themselves in those type of situations has been a vast subject of debate. Here is a good summary of a few historic studies and here is a list of lots of links on the subject, if you feel like reading more.

About 5 years ago, David Appelman devised a measurement called, well, "Clutch" that tries to describe clutch hitting and pitching. Basically what it does, is it looks at the difference of someone's performance (based on Win Probability Added) in High Leverage situations only, versus his overall performance. Players with positive Clutch outperform their overall performance in those situations and players with negative Clutch underperform. This does not mean that a player with a higher Clutch is a "better" player than one with lower Clutch. If someone hits .220 with the bases loaded and .200 overall, is not a better player than someone who hits .320 with the bases loaded and .340 overall, despite the Clutch numbers.

Fangraphs picked the stat now and I sorted the Twins hitters, relief pitchers and starting pitchers based on Clutch. This is an exercise just for fun. I don't think that it means that much (see example above), but it is interesting and it potentially be an additional tool for player evaluation, but not a stand alone tool. Situational and High Leverage performance definitely might tell something about relievers as a group, but we are not about to jump into any conclusions here. Just a demo :)

Here are the 2013 Twins' hitters ranked by Clutch (60 PA min) :

Here are the 2013 Twins' relief pitchers ranked by Clutch (10 IP min):

Here are the 2013 Twins' starting pitchers ranked by Clutch (35 IP min):

Pitchers in both roles are listed on both tables for that role only. A couple of observations:

The Twins definitely do not use or value the metric, since about half of the players with positive Clutch numbers are gone
I am not surprised to see Dozier and Duensing lead the hitter and the reliever groups respectively. It is my recollection that they really excelled in pressure situations
Worley leading the starter group may be a surprise, until someone considers that, in order to pitch in a high leverage situation, a starter needs to get himself into trouble to make that situation high leverage. Thus, Clutch, is not very useful at all for starters (other than looking at fun results like the above...)

1/6/14

Fantasy Implications from the Signings of the Top 3 Free Agent Hitters

Now that the top three free agent hitters have all been signed to long-term deals, it is time to analyse what type of impact the change in scenery will have on their fantasy baseball numbers. The three left-handed bats (Jacoby Ellsbury, Robinson Cano and Shin-Soo Choo) all want to have career years to justify their contracts, but can they meet expectations?

Ellsbury battled some injuries a season ago, but he was healthy enough to help lead the Boston Red Sox to the World Series. Fantasy baseball owners were still able to enjoy a .298 average from him and 52 stolen bases, but his power disappeared a little bit. That should change a little now that he is playing half of his games in Yankee Stadium. Health is the biggest issue for him here, but if he can stay on the field, his fantasy baseball numbers will be near career highs.

The Yankees were able to pay Ellsbury because they didn’t spend money on second baseman Robinson Cano. After being the main cog in the lineup for New York all last season, he will be switching coasts to play for the Seattle Mariners. A lackluster lineup surrounding him (even after improvements) and a bigger stadium could hurt his power numbers a little bit. Fortunately, Cano is a good enough line drive hitter that his numbers shouldn’t dive too much.

Finally, Choo goes from one good situation to another, as he signed a deal with the Texas Rangers. He put up nice numbers in Cincinnati in 2013, sporting an on-base percentage of .423 and slugging 21 home runs. He won’t have to play centerfield in Arlington, and he gets to hit in a stacked lineup in a hitter friendly ballpark. Expect some of his best career numbers this upcoming season as long as everyone else lives up to expectations. Some should worry slightly about his age and injury history, but he is still a top flight fantasy baseball option.

The chronicle of the shoulder injuries of Twins' RHP Samuel Deduno

Last season, after his World Baseball Classic performance (which ended with a pulled groin that made him miss a chunk of Spring Training and 44 games with the Twins) and his consistent performance in June and July that had him enter August with a 7-4 record and a 3.18 ERA in 12 starts, made many people in the Twins Cities call Samuel Deduno an"Ace".   This included several well-respected mainstream media. (For sample of relative stories, look here, here, here, here and here.)

Not sure whether calling Deduno an "Ace" (which, of course, he never was; being the only pitcher who gives a bad team a semi-consistent change of staying close in a game, an "Ace" does not make) caused a hubris-derived curse, but he was never the same afterwards, because of an injury that caused him to have double (labrum and rotator cuff) shoulder surgery the Fall, making his trip up North breaking camp with the Twins pretty dubious.

When (then interim) General Manager Terry Ryan, returned to that role with the Twins after the 2011 ninety nine loss season he identified several places that needed change in order for the team to improve. In addition of the firing of Jerry White and Rick Stelmaszek, the retirement of Steve Liddle and the "no scholarships" approach about certain players like Tsuyosi Nishioka, and the reassignment of the other remaining coaches, Ryan fired the Twins' head athletic trainer Rick McWane, establishing medical treatment of the players as one of the areas for improvement and part of the cause of the Twins demise in 2011.

How well have those changes worked in 2013? Let's look at the chronicle of Samuel Deduno's shoulder injury, diagnosis and treatment, with stories from last August on as they happened, and let the readers reach their own conclusions:

August 7: Deduno allows 4 runs in 5.7 innings in loss to Royals giving up 12 hits.

August 13: He allows 5 runs in 6 innings in loss to Indians; 5 hits and 3 bases on balls.

August 18: Allows 5 runs in 5 innings. Allows 8 hits. After the game Deduno speaks to the press indicating he has shoulder problems. He said that "It started behind the shoulder a couple weeks ago [August 7] , but I could handle that". "Now it's in the front. I felt it a few days ago [August 13]. Today, I didn't feel good. In the bullpen and during the game, I didn't feel strong."

[In other words, Deduno makes 3 starts with shoulder issues. It is unclear whether he communicated those issues to the training staff]

The Twins' trainers prescribe and Deduno undergoes Electronic Stimulation Therapy (a muscle therapy).

August 19: Consistent with the treatment prescribed, the Twins' training staff diagnose the condition as bicep tendinitis

August 21: Deduno throws bullpen and says he feels fine

August 22: Starts against Cleveland. Allows one run in 6 innings in a win at Cleveland. 3 hits, 4 bases on balls

August 29: Starts against the Royals. Allows 3 runs in 3 innings against the Royals. Out with shoulder soreness.

[In other words, Deduno makes 2 additional starts with apparently unresolved shoulder issues]

August 30: Deduno placed on of the 15-day DL

September 8: Deduno transferred to the 60-day DL

September 9: The Twins' GM talks to the press about Deduno. Saying that he might need shoulder surgery but is "not as bad as it sounds" and could rehab instead. Terry Ryan indicates that Deduno is "battling inflammation" and says that he is "sure that it is scar-tissue related"

September 9 (later in the day): The Twins announce that Deduno has "issues in his labrum and rotator cuff" and might need "just a clean up"

September 13: The Twins indicate that Deduno has "Fraying in the shoulder" recovery timetable is set to two months, should be ready on the onset of Spring Training

September 20: Announcement that Deduno has successful arthroscopic Shoulder Surgery (by his agent) reparing "slight fraying" and "slight tear".

December 9: Twins indicate that Deduno has started to playing catch and his rehab progresses (in Fort Myers) as planned and he is still on schedule for Spring Training.

Meanwhile, Terry Ryan signs three free agent pitchers who, in addition to Correia, are all penciled in ahead of Deduno for the 2014 rotation. Terry Ryan after the season publicly said that "Deduno has pretty much earned a spot on the 2014 rotation", but his actions show that he does not count on Deduno.   Whether he will be ready for Spring Training or not, it will be seen, since there has been pretty much silence on Deduno since September 20.

It has to be noted that Deduno has been very fragile.   Here is his injury and lost days history in his professional career:

Missed 30 days of 2013 with Right Shoulder injury
Missed part of 2013 (ST and 44 days) with Groin injury
Missed 45 days of 2012 with Right Elbow injury
Missed 18 days of 2011 with Groin injury
Missed 111 days of 2010 with Right Elbow injury (inflammation)
Missed 22 days of 2009 with Hip Flexor injury
Missed all of 2008 with Tommy John Surgery recovery
Missed 45 days of 2005 with Right Shoulder injury

The only healthy seasons in Deduno's career were 2006 and 2007. It looks like his Right Shoulder, Groin and Hip, and Right Elbow (and unfortunately even after Tommy John Surgery) have been his problem areas.   The elbow and shoulder issues are especially worrisome...

I hope that Deduno is healthy, because he pitches in an intriguing way and could help the Twins, but if his history is any guide of the future, he is not to be counted on to have the ball every fifth day.

1/3/14

Weekly summary of the Twins moves and targets: 1/3/2014

Happy New Year! Here is the summary of the moves the Minnesota Twins did and the players they expressed interest in this week (the links will take you to reports). As far as "targets" go, I am listing players that the Twins reportedly expressed interest in and not players who baseball writers and other thought that they would be a good fit or may fill a need. The targets identified past weeks are still in the list unless they signed elsewhere. Not any transactions this Holiday week, but some additional interesting targets.

As a reminder, you can see all the Twins' weekly transactions and targets in reverse chronological order here.

Moves:

Trades:

No trades last week

In:

No signings last week

Out:

No signings last week

The current Twins' 40-man roster is here and contains 21 pitchers and 19 position players for a total of 40 spots.

Targets:

Trade:

RHP Jeremy Hellickson (Rays)

Free Agent:

RHP Raisel Iglesias (Cuban Defector)

RHP Masahiro Tanaka