According
to several reports that were later confirmed by the team, the Twins have placed the highest ($12.85 Million)
bid that was accepted by the Nexen Heros, for the right to exclusive
negotiate a contract with 29 year old First Baseman Byung-Ho Park. On
paper, with the presence of Joe Mauer, Trevor Plouffe, Miquel Sano and
Kennys Vargas, investing on another 1B/DH bat, and especially right
handed, makes little sense. Why would the Twins do it? What was Terry
Ryan thinking? Let's examine the possibilities:
First
of all what he was not thinking: Moving Mauer to Catcher, Sano to Left
Field, keeping Plouffe at Third Base and potentially use a rotation of
Parks and Vargas at 1B/DH, supplemented by a heavy dose of Arcia, is not
happening, basically because Mauer is done catching. This hypothesis
should be dismissed before it starts to get formed. I believe that
Terry Ryan saw Byung Ho Park as a unique talent and he thought something
on the lines of 'let's get him, and we will figure where he fits
later', which is a totally rational and opportunistic approach, albeit
the apparent Mauer/Park dilemma has fewer solution than
the Plouffe/Sano dilemma. So, let's figure where he fits later.
How
unique is Park? Park is a player who have been improving each and
every season from his age 25 season when he was the starting first
baseman for Nexen Heros (was drafted and played his first 4.5 seasons,
with a 2 year hiatus from 2007 to 2008 for his Army dury, by the LG
Twins who traded him in the middle of the 2011 season as a 24 year old.)
His OPS increased from .866 in 2011, to .954 in 2012, to 1.039 in 2013
to 1.119 in 2014 and to 1.150 last season, when he produced a
.343/.436/.714 slash line with 53 HRs and 146 RBI in 140 games. Those
are Bary Bonds on steroids numbers, folks...
How
realistic are those expectations and how those crazy KBO numbers may
translate into MLB numbers? I will likely do a more in-depth analysis
with several data points when and if Park officially becomes a Twins'
player, but right now we have a very good comparable: his former
teammate Jung Ho Kang who moved from the KBO to the MLB playing for the
Pirates last season. In 2014, his age 27 season in KBO, Kang hit
.356/.459/.739 in 501 PAs with 149 hits, 36 doubles, 40 HRs, 68 BB and
106 K. Last season with the Pirates, he hit .287/.355/.461 with 121
hits, 24 doubles, 15 HRs, 28 BB and 99 K in 467 PA. His rates at KBO
were: Hit 29.7%, double 7.2%, HR 8%, BB 13.6%, K 21.1%. His rates at
MLB (with relative fractions to the KBO) were: Hit 25.9% (.87), double
5.1% (.71), HR 3.2% (0.4), BB 6% (0.44), K 21.2% (1). Utilizing these
as guides, we could roughly (very roughly, but it is in the ballpark)
expect Byung Ho Park to hit something like: .278/.336/.442 (.778 OPS)
with 157 hits, 25 doubles, 21 HRs, 34 BB and 161 K in 622 PAs. Those
numbers (other than the Ks) are definitely better than what the Twins
got for Torii Hunter (.702 OPS; whom Park might essensially be
replacing) and slightly better than Plouffe's (.742 OPS; whom Park might
end up replacing.)
What
will it take to sign Park? We have Jung Ho Kang's contract for a
guide. The Pirates signed him for 4 years / $11 million guaranteed
($2.5M, $2.5M, $2.75M, $3 and an optional 5th for $5.5M with a $250K
buyout) and their winning bid was $5 million, so the total guaranteed
cost of the contract was 4/$16M. I think that it will be reasonable for
the Twins to sign him to a 4 year ($3M, $3M, $4M, $4.5M) with an
optional fifth year at $6 with a $500K buyout. This will be a 4/$15M
contract for the player, and adding the fee a 4/$28M contract for the
Twins, most of it front loaded with the posting fee. The annual cost for the Twins will be at around $7 million,
which is $3.5 million annual savings for what they paid Hunter, a little
less than what Plouffe will make on arbitration and a considerable
$3-5M savings over what they would have take to re-sign/extend Plouffe.
So
in other words, this is likely what Terry Ryan was thinking: Better
production than what he had in 2015 at 2/3rd of the cost, and most of it front loaded in a way that he would not have to pinch more pennies when Sano hits arbitration. Where would
he fit? Let them sign him first, and we'll figure where he fits later,
but here are a couple of things to think about: Park is a plus defender
at first base with a plus arm and Mauer in the past 2 seasona has a
.774 OPS as a DH vs..717 as a first baseman. Terry Ryan was adamant about Park being the Twins' DH, but you never know. So there might be a plan
for that as well, after all...
Let the negotiations begin and meanwhile enjoy every single home run that Park hit in 2014 in this video:
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