2018 Twins Off-Season top 60 Prospect List: Introduction

I usually start and post my top 60 Twins' prospect list a bit earlier that this (last year the first post was January 10th) because I want to pay full attention to Spring Training when that starts, and it starts soon.  However, I waited longer this season because I expected the Twins to make moves that may affect this list.  They really did not.  If such a move occurs, and a newcomer is ranked 35th, I will keep the original list intact, rank the newcomer 35a and the previous number 35 prospect 35b.  It will be interesting to see what the future brings as far as this aspect is concerned.  I will be posting in reverse rankings starting next week, from number 60 to number 1, in chunks of 5, and a final summary post, total 13 posts.   I am hoping to be posting up to 3 a week to finish by the end of February.

The inclusion criteria from my list is different than those for most prospect lists that include everyone with rookie eligibility as a prospect.  As far as this list is concerned, anyone who has made it to the majors has "graduated" from prospect status, so is ineligible.  I am including an additional criterion this year:  everyone for whom 2018 will be his age 26 or older season, will be excluded because he "came of age" to be regarded as a prospect.

As a baseline here is the Twins 2017 off-season top 60 prospect list, and here is that summary with links to individual profiles and scouting reports.

There is a lot of churn in the Twins top 60 from 2017 to 2018.  Only 27 players are returning from the 2017 list and there are 33 new comers, and some highly ranked.

Here are the players who were in the 2017 list, but dropped for reasons other than performance, with their 2017 ranking in parenthesis, and the reason they were dropped:

Daniel Palka (7) OF, - claimed on waivers 
Adalbelto Mejia (9) LHP,  - graduated
Mitch Garver (10) C,  - graduated
Nick Burdi (12) RHRP,  - selected on Rule 5 draft
Engelb Vielma SS (14),  - claimed on waivers
Mason Melotakis (18), LHRP,  - came of age
Amaurys Minier (19) OF/1B,  - released
Huascar Ynoa (20), RHSP, - traded
Justin Haley (21) RHP, - returned from Rule 5 pick
Felix Jorge (23), RHSP,  - graduated
Niko Goodrum (26), CF/IF,  - graduated, left as a MiLB FA
Trevor Hildenberger (27) RHP  - graduated
D.J. Baxendale, (28) RHP;  - came of age
Dereck Rodriguez, (34) RHP – - came of age, left as a MiLB FA
John Curtiss, (35) RHP;  - graduated
Travis Harrison (37), OF/1B,  - released
Aaron Slegers (38), RHP  - graduated
Levi Michael (40), 2B,  - came of age 
Brandon Peterson (42), RHRP,   - came of age, left as a MiLB FA
Zach Granite, (43) OF, - graduated
Jason Wheeler (51) LHP,  - graduated, traded
Michael Cederoth (60) RHP - Released

The following 4 players came to the organization too late to be included in the 2017 list, or were not there for other reasons, but they are excluded from the 2018 list:

(--) LHP Gabriel Moya - graduated
(--) LHP Dietriech Enns - graduated, came of age
(--) RHP Nick Anderson - came of age
(--) C Wynston Sawyer - came of age

As last season, unless he becomes a full-time professional baseball player, Griffin Jax will not be included because of high risk

The following 10 players were included in the 2017 list (ranking in parenthesis) but dropped from the 2018 list, due to performance, progression, and/or better newcomers:

Michael Theophanopoulos (33), LHP
Brandon Lopez (41) SS
Humberto Maldonado (44) OF
Tyler Benninghoff, (46) RHP 
Taylor Clemensia  (48)  LHP 
Eduardo Del Rosario (49) RHP 
Jordan Balazovic, (50) RHP
Zander Wiel, (53) 1B
Colton Davis (56)  RHP 
Williams Ramirez (57) RHP 

Next: Twins prospects 56-60

Final results of 2018 Hall of Fame vote and what happened to the 4 Twins' players on it

Here are the final results of the 2018 HOF vote.  Former Twins' players in bold:

 Class of 2018:

Chipper Jones: 410 votes (97.2%)
Vladimir Guerrero: 392 votes (92.9%)
Jim Thome: 379 votes (89.8%)
Trevor Hoffman: 337 votes (79.9%)





 Staying on the ballot:

Edgar Martinez: 297 votes (70.4%)
Mike Mussina: 268 votes (63.5%)
Roger Clemens: 242 votes (57.3%)
Barry Bonds: 238 votes (56.4%)
Curt Schilling: 216 votes (51.2%)
Omar Vizquel: 156 votes (37.0%)
Larry Walker: 144 votes (34.1%)
Fred McGriff: 98 votes (23.2%)
Manny Ramirez: 93 votes (22.0%)
Jeff Kent: 61 votes (14.5%)
Gary Sheffield: 47 votes (11.1%)
Billy Wagner: 47 votes (11.1%)
Scott Rolen: 43 votes (10.2%)
Sammy Sosa: 33 votes (7.8%)
Andruw Jones: 31 votes (7.3%)



 Removed from the ballot:

Jamie Moyer: 10 votes (2.4%)
Johan Santana: 10 votes (2.4%)
Johnny Damon: 8 votes (1.9%)
Hideki Matsui 4 votes (0.9%)
Chris Carpenter: 2 votes (0.5%)
Kerry Wood: 2 votes (0.5%)
Livan Hernandez: 1 vote (0.2%)
Carlos Lee: 1 vote (0.2%)
Orlando Hudson: 0 votes
Aubrey Huff: 0 votes
Jason Isringhausen: 0 votes
Brad Lidge: 0 votes
Kevin Millwood: 0 votes
Carlos Zambrano: 0 votes

One former Twins' player is elected to the Hall of Fame, while 3 former Twins' players were removed from future consideration.

What does one of the newest predictive measurements tell about the Twins' bats in 2018?

With the recent slew of raw data we have about hitters, based on Statcast, new metrics based on that raw data have been developed to predict hitter performance, based on objective measurements, such as bat exit speed and launch angle.  One of these metrics is the expected weighted on base average, or xwOBA.  It is meant to compare directly to wOBA, in a manner similar to that of xFIP to FIP comparison's for pitchers.   And in the same manner if xFIP-FIP is a positive number for a player, as a baseline, you expect a player to improve next season, and the opposite if it is a negative numbers.  Of course, this is one factor, and additional factors, like training, mechanics change, adding muscle etc, will affect future performance;  however, unlike xwOBA-xOBA, they are hard to measure.

wOBA tries to measure a player's total offensive performance based on a series of weighted operations on offensive events on a players.  The link will give you some basic information on the metric.   xwOBA is a similar formula based on Statcast exit speed and launch angle.  The link explains in detail the metric.

Here are the xwOBA for the 2017 Twins' batters in two groups:

The ones expected to improve in 2018:

The ones expected to decline in 2018:

As indicated only Joe Mauer, and in a lesser degree, Jason Castro are projected to improve, as far as the 2018 startling 9 of the Twins go.  Pretty much everyone else is projected to decline.

If one looks at several projections about what the 2018 will do, which are based on xwOBA, expect them to show an overall decline in wins.

There is a silver lining:  Other than Brian Dozier (and free agent Chris Gimenez,) most of the Twins' hitters expected to decline based on this formula are young, and the other factors like development, changes in mechanics, could easily trump these projections.  If the 2017 Twins' hitters were an older bunch, things would have been different.

The Twins sign free agent LHP...

...Jim Kaat, 79, to a Front Office role. 

No.  Kaat cannot pitch.

The rest of hot stove is still lukewarm.

Which former Twins' closer was Zach Duke's best man, and 8 more random facts about the newest Twin.

The Twins announced that they have signed LHP Zach Duke to an one year contract.   Here are some random facts about the newest Twin:

1. His full name is Zachary Thomas Duke, was born on April 19th, 1983 in Clinton,Tx. He is listed 6-2 and 210 lbs, and bats and throws left.  Was drafted in the 20th round (594th overall) of the 2001 draft by the Pitsburgh Pirates from  Midway High School in Waco, TX.  Currently lives in Gallatin, TN, with his wife since 2007 Kristin Gross.
2. His best man was former Twins closer Matt Capps.
3. Zach Duke was the Pirates top prospect in 2005, according to Baseball America, and top 34th prospect in baseball, a season where Joe Mauer was the top prospect, Delmon Young the 3rd best, Jason Kubel the 17th, Phillip Humber the 50th, Jesse Crain the 63rd and J.D Durbin the 70th, a spot ahead of Cole Hamels. 
4. Zach Duke had Tommy John surgery and his left flexor muscle repaired the first week of October of 2016.  His recovery time (287 days) was the shortest among major league pitchers the last 10 years, and 9th shortest of all time. He was throwing off a mound after just 190 days.  Thus his 2017 numbers should be viewed under this light.
5. Nine seasons before his Tommy John surgery in 2007, Duke was placed in the 60 day DL with tendonitis and UCL inflammation that was resolved with rest and rehab.  In 2010 he went to the 15 day DL with a flexor pronator (the muscle he repair during his recent surgery) strain.
6. Zach Duke appeared in 226 games from 2014 to 2016.  This is Everyday Eddie territory.  Duke's new bullpen coach appeared in 231 games from 1996 to 1998
7. He has pitched for the Pirates (6 seasons), Diamondbacks (1), Nationals (1.5), Reds (0.5), Brewers(1), White Sox (1.5), and Cardinals(1.5).  With the Pirates he exclusively wore uniform number 57; has also worn 19, 29, 30, 33, and 59, in the other stops of his career.  He also pitched for the Astros during the 2012 Spring Training, and was released before he signed with Washington.
8. His largest contract was with the Chicago White Sox for 3 years and $15 million from 2015-2017.   He signed an one year "just over" $2 million contract with the Twins, with another ~$1.5 M in "attainable" incentives
9. Duke hit his first MLB home run, a 3-run shot, on May 28, 2011, his first start with the Diamondbacks, off Bud Norris.

The Twins bet $10 million in the hope that Michal Pineda's demons can be exorcised.

Today the Twins announced that they have signed RHP Michael Pineda to a 2 year $10 million dollars that will pay him $2 million in 2018 (a season likely lost due to Tommy John surgery last July) and $8 million in 2019 with up to an additional $2 million in incentives based on innings pitched.

At first glance and remembering Pineda's age 22 rookie season with the Mariners, which was somewhat akin to Fransisco Liriano's rookie performance with the Twins, I thought that it was money well spent, but looking closer to Pineda's history, I started having my doubts.

Pineda was signed as a 16 year old by the Mariners and started his pro career in the DSL in 2006.  He was cruising through the minors moving fast until after 2008 when he threw 138-1/3 innings in full season A ball.  He had to be shut down most of the next year due to an elbow strain, pitching only 44 innings in high A+.    He moved to AA and AAA in 2010, and made his debut in the majors in 2011 performing admirably enough (3.42 FIP, 24.9% K%, 17% K-BB%, 1.10 WHIP/.258 BABIP) for the Yankees to trade their top prospect catcher Jesus Montero and young pitcher Hector Noesi for the 6-7 tall Pineda.  That's where his troubles, other than the previous elbow issue begun.

He showed up out of shape at 270 lbs to Spring Training and his velocity dropped from his previous season 94-96 to low 90s.  He developed shoulder issues, and was shut down with shoulder tendonitis.  It was discovered that he had a torn labrum (albeit the rotator cuff was fine) that was repaired with lighter arthroscopic surgery on May 1st.  The mellifluous New York press wrote about him: "Pineda arrived in his first Yankees camp 30 pounds overweight. In an effort to create velocity that wasn’t there, Pineda overthrew and blew out the shoulder. Surgery followed".  If that were not enough, during his rehab in Tampa, on August 20, a police officer stopped his SUV that was swerving around at night with its lights off.  His blood alcohol level was close to twice the legal limits.  Pineda got arrested and next February pleaded guilty to DUI, receiving a slap on the hand: was fined $500, received a year of probation, was ordered to attend DUI classes and perform 50 hours of community service.

He started 2013 in the DL and was optioned (the only time that happened to him, which means he still has 2 options remaining) to AAA Scranton, pitching in six games all season.  In 2014 he started the season in the Yankees' rotation, where another incident happened.  In a game against the Red Sox, he was ejected, for having pine tar on his neck, and suspended 10 days.  Apparently it was not the first time he did that in the season or in the game, and was forewarned by the umpired, resulting in having his intelligence openly questioned  by the press.   While pitching a simulated game during his suspention, he strained his teres major muscle, a shoulder rotator muscle on the back side that kept him on the DL until August 13th.

In 2015 he struck out 16 players in a game, before missing a chunk of time since July 30 with  "a strained flexor muscle in his right forearm", the second time in his career he had elbow issues.  In 2016, he showed up in camp in shape, and with his fastball up to 94-95 mph, he has aspirations to be the Yankees ace.  Those aspirations ended in the middle of last season, when he tore his UCL and had Tommy John surgery performed on July 18th.

Michael Pineda might be able to help the Twins towards the end of last season and there is potential for the 2019 season.  He comes with more baggage that one can fit in a FedEx 747,  but he also comes with one of the best sliders in the game, which is a true out pitch.  Other than the fastball and the slider, he has an average change up that he does not like to throw much.  Based on set up men going for $8 million a season, the Twins investment might be a good one, because even if he cannot make it to the rotation, he could be a force out of the pen.  However, the Twins know by their very own aforementioned Liriano, what a reconstructed UCL can do to one's slider and it is questionable that the time frame of healing will be enough for the slider to return during his Twins' tenure. And this assumes that all that bad luck and the demons are not around Pineda the next couple seasons.

It is more of a bet than an investment, about the equivalent to that with Byung-Ho Park.  Time will tell if this bet will pay for the Twins, but the cards are stuck against them somewhat.

 

Twins off-season thoughts: Another trade and not only for starting pitching

So far, I have proposed that the Twins sign three free agent relievers, and trade for front line pitching with the Mets.  Unfortunately Brandon Morrow and Yusmeiro Petit have already signed elsewhere, and close for what I thought they will sign.  There is still room for improvement and the Twins go for it in Pittsburgh.

The Twins get:

RHSP Gerrit Cole (2 years of service left, second arbitration season),  OF Andrew McCutchen ( 1 yr $14.5M left), and closer Felipe Rivero (3 years of arbitration left.)

The Pirates get:

OF Max Kepler, OF Alex Kirilloff, LHSP Stephen Gonsalves, RHRP Nick Burdi, RHSP Kohl Stewart.

In other words, the Twins solidify their rotation, get a young closer, and a premiere RH OF bat and glove that will be a huge improvement over Kepler.   They can extend a qualifying offer to McCutchen after the season.

The Pirates save about $20-22 million dollars for 2018, a season they will not compete, get a whole bunch of prospects, including their home grown former first round pick Kirilloff, three arms with some potential that their history with pitchers might help, and an MLB-ready OF.

I think that this is a win-win trade.

MLB and the MLBPA have agreed on guidelines on Japanese player posting

Including Otani.

Let the Wild Rumbus Start:

Twins off-season thoughts: The first of the 2 trades for starting pitching: Match made in heaven.

My premise this off-season is for the Twins to be competitive deep in the 2018 post-season, they need 2 starters better than Berrios, and at least 3 relievers better than what they have now.   A few days ago, I discussed three free agents who can play a vital role in the Twins' 2018 pen.  Unfortunately, unless someone believes that the Shohei Otani lottery ticket will land on the Twins' lap (it still could, btw; I just don't like living on a prayer,) there are no suitable free agent pitchers who fit this bill, as far as starters go.

So the Twins have to trade for two top of the rotation pitchers.   As far as who their first trade partner to accomplish this would be, I was crystal clear.  As far as who their target should be, I was not, until I had an epiphany.   There is a great synergy for the New York Mets to be the Twins' trading partner again.  The Twins traded both Frank Viola and Johan Santana to the Mets, in trades that met both teams' needs needs (albeit the Gardenhire Twins were too quick to give up on the superstar centerfielder they got in return).

Two of the biggest New York Mets' needs are a veteran starting pitcher who will be there to eat innings and be an example to their young Five Aces, a second baseman, and a power bat.  This clearly spells Ervin Santana, and Brian Dozier, ladies and gentlemen.  As far as who the Twins should be after, I have been really focusing on 29 year old Jacob DeGrom who has been their most consistent pitcher, has 2 years of club control through arbitration and about to get pretty expensive.  Or the 25 year old lefty, Steve Matz, who did have a health scare, but his reconstructed UCL was fine after all, and might have the highest potential of them all.

But then it hit me.  There is a guy who would be as great a fit to Minnesota as Ragnar, and probably more than this guy:  The Scandinavian god of thunder, Thor, himself.  Indeed,  the Twins should go after 25 year old RHSP Noah Syndergaard.  Probably fell in their depth charts behind DeGrom, and with Matz, Steven Wheeler, Robert Gsellman, and even Matt Harvey ready to step in his shoes, Thor can rule in the frozen tundra in 2018.  Just imagine the sponsorship opportunities for the guy.

What will it take for the Twins to get Syndergaard?  Assuming that he is fully recovered from his lat muscle issue,  Santana and Dozier might not be enough.  I think that adding Nick Gordon (a top 20 MLB prospect according to Baseball America), and Tyler Duffey and/or Jake Reed will help sweeten the deal.  The Mets do need help in their pen and the Twins have plenty.

So here is the deal:

Noah Syndergaard to the Twins for Ervin Santana,  Brian Dozier, Nick Gordon, and Tyler Duffey and/or Jake Reed.

Mind you, this is not a trade between a team that wants to shed payroll and a competitive team. This is a treat between 2 competitive teams that are comfortable trading and rearranging assets.  Not many of these kind of trades happen.  The last one the Twins did, also involved the Mets, who traded Ricky Reed for Matt Lawton.  This is not a Santana or a Viola deal that was centered on prospects.

And the Twins have their opening day 2018 starter.  And this is a match made in a Scandinavian heaven. 

And the Mets and the Twins meet in the 2018 World Series (Hint: Twins in 7.)

Twins off-season thoughts: Three free agents for the pen

It is not a secret that the Twins reached the 2017 post-season despite their awful pitching situation.  Even though, I believe that there are not any suitable starting pitchers who are free agents that can help the Twins in 2018, there are three relievers that the Twins need to take a close look to supplement their staff.   To fill a rotation competitive long in the post-season, the Twins will need at least 2 pitchers better than Berrios, and other than Darvish and Otani who are unapproachable for the Twins, nobody really fits the list.  They are better off trading for those, and will discuss that matter in another post.

As far as the pen goes, the Twins glaring needs are for a dominant closer, a dominant opposite hand late inning reliever and a dominant 2-3 inning reliever.  Dillon Gee could play that  later role, but he does not miss many bats, which has been the issue with the whole of the Twins' pen last season.  It ranked 23rd in FIP, 29% in K%, tied for 20th in K-BB%, and 19th with a -9.62 RE24, and 29th in SwStr%.   Here are the players the Twins should have a look at:

Closer:  RHP Brandon Morrow (29.4 K%, 24.1 K-BB%, 15.9 SwStr%, 1.55 FIP, 11.90 RE24)   Morrow dominated as a set up man for a team that made it to the World Series.  Finally healthy, he featured a 98 mph fastball, 89 mph slider, supplemented by a 92 mph cutter.  These are closer stuff.  The 33 year old will be popular this off-season and MLB Trade Rumors projects that he will go to the Rockies with a 3 year, $24 million contract.  I think that the Twins could prevail offering him 2 years at $18 and a third optional year at $11 with a $2 million buy out, for a total of $20 million guaranteed.

Opposite hand late reliever:  LHP Boone Logan (30.8 K%, 20.9 K-BB%, 18.5 SwStr%, 3.16 FIP, 11.31 RE24).  The Indians bought out his $7M option for $1M, making him a free agent.  Logan, who is also 33,  had issues with a Lat muscle strain, so he posses somewhat of a risk.  The Twins can reel him him in with a 1 yr $4M contract, with $2 more millions in incentives and a vesting option for 2017 for $8 million.   So the risk will be 1 year and $4M and the upside a $2 yr, 14 million, which is fair if Logan continues his performance.

Quality workhorse:  RHP Yusmeiro Petit  (28.5K%, 23.4 K-BB%, 10.6 SwStr%, 2.85 FIP, 19.34 RE24).  The 32 year old journeyman finally made the transition to the pen where he shined with the Angels last season pitching 91-1/3 innings of excellent ball.  Petit never walks anyone but this season he started missing bats, making it an awesome combination for someone who can pitch 3-4 shutdown innings at a time.  Petit never made much money in his professional career, and a 2 yr / $10 million,  or 3 year / $12 million deal will appropriate to bring him to Minnesota.

This way the Twins will have a 2018 pen anchored by Morrow and Logan, supplemented by Petit and four of their young leftovers with high potential, who will have the opportunity, unlike in 2017, to pitch and develop in less stressful situations with some real mentors.

Twins off-season thoughts: Analyzing the 40 man roster

The 2018 MLB off-season officially started late last night when the Houston Astros beat the Los Angeles Dodger in the game 7 of the 2017 World Series.   The 2018 off-season will be very interesting for the surprising good Minnesota Twins who made the postseason in 2017, but, alas, their participation in baseball lore lasted only one game.   Several things need to happen for the Twins to improve and be competitive in 2018 well into the post season.  We will be looking at these things in segments like this of "off-season thoughts".  In addition, like past years there will a weekly (or more often) off-season transactions and rumors segment, as those starting to build.

A good starting point is to look at the Twins 40-man roster and try to analyze what it could look like as a baseline, before the Rule 5 decisions and trade decision will need to be made.    Here is the Twins roster after the end of the season, including all 60-day DL players, as well as the free agents (uniform numbers included as well).  There are as a total 45 players:

Pitchers (28) :

9  Matt Belisle    
17 Jose Berrios    
62  Buddy Boshers    
67  Alan Busenitz    
60  J.T. Chargois
40 Bartolo Colon    
27 John Curtiss    
56 Tyler Duffey    
47 Dietrich Enns    
35 Dillon Gee    
44 Kyle Gibson
39 Trevor Hildenberger    
45 Phil Hughes
76 Felix Jorge
65 Trevor May
49 Adalberto Mejia 
58 Gabriel Moya
61 Ryan O'Rourke
15 Glen Perkins    
57 Ryan Pressly    
55 Taylor Rogers    
77 Fernando Romero    
64 Randy Rosario    
54 Ervin Santana 
53 Hector Santiago 
50 Aaron Slegers 
59 Michael Tonkin 
66 Nik Turley

Position players (17) :

16 Ehire Adrianza  
25 Byron Buxton    
21 Jason Castro 
2 Brian Dozier
5 Eduardo Escobar 
43 Mitch Garver
38 Chris Gimenez
23 Niko Goodrum 
8 Zack Granite
36 Robbie Grossman 
26 Max Kepler
7 Joe Mauer
73 Daniel Palka
11 Jorge Polanco
20 Eddie Rosario 
22 Miguel Sano
19 Kennys Vargas

The distribution between position players and pitchers clearly shows the issues with the team in 2017.  The names of the pitchers will need to be trimmed.

Matt Belisle, Bartolo Colon, Dillon Gee, Glen Perkins, Hector Santiago  are all free agents.  Perkins will not return Belisle Colon and Santiago should not.  This will open 4 spots on the roster.  Dillon Gee is an interesting player:  He performed exceptionally as a reliever producing an 1.35 ERA (2.86 FIP) in total, which dropped to 1.01 (2.56 FIP) the first time through an order.  In that split (26-2/3 IP) he allowed 22 hits and 5 walks, (1.01 WHIP & .286 BABIP) and struck out 20 (19.1 K%, 14.3 K-BB%).   If I were the Twins, I would try to re-sign Gee who will be 32 next season to a 2-year contract and have him in the long reliever role, a role he excelled in 2017.  He was not part of the problem last season. This drops down the roster to 41.

Buddy Boshers, Alan Busenitz, J.T. Chargois, John Curtiss,  Dietrich Enns, Trevor Hildenberger, Felix Jorge, Gabriel Moya, Ryan O'Rourke,  Fernando Romero, Randy Rosario, Aaron Slegers, Michael Tonkin, Nik Turley will be competing for 40-man space with the likes of Zack Littell, Stephen Gonsalvez, Lewis Thorpe, Kohl Stewart, Ryan Eades, Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, Luke Bard, Mason Melotakis, etc.   For the names in this list, it would be all about who will be able to help the Twins more in 2018.   I think that Buddy Boshers, Ryan O'Rourke, Randy Rosario, Aaron Slegers, Michael Tonkin and Nik Turley, will be in the losing part of the equation, with Alan Busenitz and John Curtiss, and potentially Ryan Pressly on the bubble, but making it.  This will open 6 more spaces, dropping down the roster to 35, and potentially down to 32; but it is too early and likely unnecessary to do so in the first round.

As far as position players go, there is no much leeway;  Niko Goodrum, and Daniel Palka as fairly certain cuts; Kennys Vargas who is out of options is on the bubble, but will likely make it through the first round of cuts.  This will drop 12 spots of the roster, trimming it down to 33, allowing enough room to protect players as well as sign free agents before potential trades.

Jim Souhan does not have to be afraid of Twins' bloggers, trolls, or windmills

Longtime Twin Cities sports columnist Jim Souhan wrote a column titled On Minnesota Twins and cowardly trolls yesterday.   The trigger was likely that a lot of people had the audacity to disagree publicly with his opinion regarding his column.  The one suggesting that Miguel Sano is overweight and that is a problem with his performance, when the kid had an All Star season, and not to mention the timing of the article, while Sano is battling an injury and trying to get healthy to help the Twins in their post-season run.  So Souhan wanted to diminish the opinions of his critics wrote this about them:  These untethered-from-reality bloggers are trolls, liars, plagiarists and frauds. But mostly, they’re cowards.  According to him unless one has Access to the Twins' Front Office (being tethered-to-reality) cannot have an opinion about the team.

I think that Souhan does not get the following:

• Access, and esp. Access to this team, disqualifies from objectivity. For example: Give a single person with Access who wanted Ryan's or Gardenhire's head on a plate after years and years of ineptness?  Why hasn't Souhan written anything negative and pointing the finger on eg. Ryan's inability to improve this team in the 2015 deadline?  Or Gardenhire's inability to win at the post-season?  Just like he targeting Sano.  It should be all fair game.  But no. Because if it is, his Access might be in play. Thus someone with Access, like Souhan, cannot really give you an objective opinion on things that might take away his or her Access.In other words: He, Souhan, who threw the first stone, is the coward in this situation. 
• He does not understand the mechanics of information distribution and opinion distribution (and the right of people to have opinions a. different than his and b. about his writings) in the 21st Century. He calls people with Access, like Brandon and Seth , "bloggers" (albeit of the "good " kind.) Last time I checked, they are both his peers with press credentials, just like his, and making $, like him, by writing down stuff about baseball, and their opinions, like he does.The fact that they started as bloggers has nothing to do with the fact that they are his peers, and he should not discount them or try to diminish them. Phil Mackey and Doogie Woofson started as bloggers also. Are they that now according to Souhan?  I guess he does not understand that the way that information (and opinion) flows today, does not require membership in a certain old mens' club, or even Access. But Souhan wants to protect his little exclusivity of information and the way it used to move last millennium. Hate to bring it to him, but his "reality" has been steamrolled, no matter how delusional he may pretend to be about it.
• In that piece, intentionally or not, he confirmed his MO: his Access allows him to get information from certain people in the Front Office about players that he then spews, with those FO people's blessing, and throws their targets publicly under the bus, being those (coward, because they are un-named?) Front Office people's mouthpiece. Bravo!
• Last, but not least:Being one of Souhan's targets (A blogger, with no Access - who never wants Access because of that first bullet up there among other things, and decide to spent my own money to watch every Twins' game and the team in Spring Training, unlike him) my reaction to this article was a huge thumbs up.  He is so scared of people who "dare" to have an opinion opposed to his ,  than when they voice it publicly, it moves him to write a whole article about how better his point of view is because he has Access and because he get direct dirt from the Twins' Front Office.  I did not write a blog about his article, the same with other Twins' "coward" bloggers, I just found it insignificant to bother with. However, he chose to write an article defending his personal status quo attack by "coward" bloggers (whose opinion should not matter, because they do not have Access.)We've come a long way, baby!
• And here is the cherry:  Souhan called Twins' bloggers without Access "trolls".  I suspect that he wanted to prove that he is "with the times."  Here is the definition of an internet troll:   A troll is a person who sows discord on the Internet by starting arguments or upsetting people, by posting inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages with the deliberate intent of provoking readers into an emotional response or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion.  And that piece by Souhan, is such a prime example of trolling...

Who is the newest Twins' pitcher Jaime Garcia?

The Minnesota Twins have announced that they have traded their 20th prospect 19 year old RHP Huascar Ynoa to the Atlanta Braves for 31 year old LHP Jaime Garcia and 33 year old minor league C Anthony Recker.  Recker was assigned to AAA Rochester to provide catching depth, esp. in a situation where AAA star c Mitch Garver is promoted to the Twins.  Jaime Garcia will assume a spot on top of the Twins' rotation, and he will be a free agent after this season.  Who is the newest Twin?

Jaime Omar Garcia was born on July 8th of 1986 in the border city of Reynosa, Mexico, on the South bank of Rio Grande, finished the Sharyland High School across the river in Mission, TX, situated about 12 miles away from the Alamo.  He was drafted as a High School senior by the Baltimore Orioles in the 30th round of the 2004th draft; however the Braves did not sign him because of a failed test.  He was drafted in the 25th round by the Cardinals in 2005 and signed with them.  He started his pro career next season, at the single A Quad City Swing of the Midwest League, where he started 13 games (77-2/3 IP), and went 5-4, with a 2.90 ERA, 2.19 FIP, 9.3 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and 1.09 WHIP/.309 BABIP.  Midseason he moved to High A Florida State League Palm Beach Cardinals, where he started another 13 games  (77-1/3 IP) and went also 5-4, with a 3.84 ERA, 3.05 FIP, 5.9 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, and 1.29 WHIP/.327 BABIP.

The Cardinal have seen enough of him in those 155 innings in his first pro season to promote him all the way to AA Springfield Cardinals of the Texas League in 2007.    Those 155 innings (plus 12-2/3 in the winter) seem a lot for a pitcher right after High School and might have negatively affected Garcia.  For AA Springfield Garcia started 18 games (103-1/3 IP) with a record of 5-9, 3.75 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 8.5 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, and 1.34 WHIP/.281 BABIP before he was shut down during the All Star Break with a UCL sprain.   He started the next season again in Springfield where he started in 6 games (35 IP) with a 3-2 record, 2.06 ERA, 2.53 FIP, 10.5 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 1.20/.302 BABIP before he was promoted to AAA International League Memphis Cardinals where he started in 6 12 games (71 IP) with a 4-4 record, 4.44 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 7.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.41/.315 BABIP, before he was promoted to the major league Cardinals in his 3rd full pro season after High School as a 21 year old.  He pitched in 10 games (1 start) before the elbow finally gave up in August and needed Tommy John surgery in September.   He missed the whole 2009 season recovering from surgery, other than rehab assignments;  he returned to the Cardinals in 2010,where he started 28 games (163-1/3 IP) going 13-8, with a 2.70 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 7.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.32 WHIP/.292 BABIP and finished 3rd in the Rookie of the year voting.

2011 was his first fully healthy season as a major leaguer, starting 32 games (194-2/3 IP), going 13-7 with a 3.56 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.320 WHIP/.292 BABIP.  The Cardinals went on to the postseason.  Garcia started a game in the Division Series, and 2 games each in the Championship Series and World Series, getting a World Series ring. He pitched a total of 25-2/3 innings, upping his season (and career) total to 220-1/3.  Next season, 2012, he started only 21 games, including one in the post season, because of shoulder issues that were diagnosed as labrum and rotator cuff strain and inflammation.  In 2013 he pitched only 9 games because he needed shoulder surgery to repair a partial tear of his labrum and torator cuff.  He returned in 2014 to pitch only 7 games before he needed Thoracic Outlet Surgery.  Back healthy in the second half of 2015, he started 20 games (129-2/3 IP), and fully healthy in 2016 (32 G, 171-2/3 IP) before traded to the Braves for 3 low level prospects last off-season.

We have seen his recent stats as a major leaguer, so I am not going to discuss them here.  The Twins are getting a rental, but with his medical history, they should be glad that that is all they are getting.  One of his splits that is worth mentioning is that he has started a career 20 games against the Americal League, pitching 119 innings, going 6-7 with a 4.39 ERA, 1.311 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 and 2.5 K/BB.  These numbers are those of a solid mid-rotation starter, for example just a hair behind Ervin Santana's career numbers (4.05 ERA, 1.271 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.53 BB/9).  You can read a recent full scouting report here, but distilled, Garcia has a four-seamer and two-seamer in the 90-92 mph range (in that report indicates a velocity drop through the game),  a passable slider and curve that he rarely throws and a plus change up that is his out pitch.  Plus command and control of his pitches, esp. the fastball and setting up the change is his game plan.   All in all he will likely be the 3rd best pitcher with the Twins, behind Jose Berrios and Santana (if Santana stays).  This will likely cost Bartolo Colon a spot, with Adalberto Mejia and Kyle Gibson (both have options) taking the last 2 spots of the rotation with injured Hector Santiago, a free agent this off season, a question mark.

But the Twins are not done dealing.  As a matter of fact, they just started.

5 things to look for the Twins 2017 MLB draft first day (along with 15 potential draftee names)

The Twins have the first selection in the MLB draft that starts at 6PM EDT tonight in New York City, and there has been a lot of discussion about the first pick of the draft overall.  Here are 5 things to look for tonight when the first couple of rounds happen:

1. Who is the most signable College pitcher at number one?  The Twins have been on the clock since the last day of the 2016 season, and have been discussing potential targets since that day, and have been having discussions with these targets about bonus money recently.   The indication is that the Twins will take a College pitcher at number one.  Kyle Wright (3-5, 3.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 in 2017) was the most prominent name, until last week when Brendan McKay (10-3, 2.34 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 12.2 K/9, 2.9 BB/9) became the favorite.  Here is an analysis about who is the best College pitcher based on potential and numbers.  However, the Twins will go after signability and select the pitcher who will come at a bigger discount to potentially spend some of that money in their supplemental (35th) and second (37th overall) round picks.  Survey says the pick will be McKay; I will not be surprised if it is Wright or even J.B Bukauskas (9-1, 2.52 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 11.2 K/9, 3.6 BB/9) or Alex Faedo (7-2, 2.61 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 2.9 BB/9) whose numbers are close to McKay's this season.  But McKay is the only lefty among the group and the consensus at this point among the Draft pundits.  But the day is still young.

2. Will the Twins address catching the first day?  The Twins have a need for a long term catcher.  Last season they selected Wisconsin prep Ben Rortvedt who has trouble adjusting to wooden bat, and even-though he is far away from being called a "bust", he is on his way, hitting just .167/.252/.205 in single A Cedar Rapids.  The two best catchers on the board in a not-strong catching class are preps this season: Luis Campusano from Augusta, GA, and M.J. Melendez from Palmetto Bay, FL.  Even though they are better baseball competition states than WI, I have a hard time seeing them repeating that mistake, and will likely wait until the third round and select one of the Collegiates Riley Adams (San Diego), Evan Skoug (TCU), or Connor Wong (Houston), with Skoug being the favorite to remain at C long term.

3. How much does "make up" matter to the new heads of the Twins?  There are players on every draft that have fallen because of "make up" issues, usually based on bad decisions that they made.  In the past the Twins have selected Steven Gonsalves who had fallen because of such issues.  Is the current team willing to take a talent like Seth Romero (who was kicked out of the Houston team for smoking marijuana, breaking curfew and fighting with a teammate) or even Luke Heimlich (who as a 15 year old was found guilty of molestation of a 6-year old relative)?  I would personally sign Romero and stay away from Heimlich, but will be interesting to see what the Twins will do.

4. Will the Twins still be willing to sign upper Midwest players despite recent disappointments?  The Twins have been known to sign "local talent", bright and early, despite every time this has happened the last 10 years, resulted in disappointment.  The upper Midwest does not have the level of competition, both  Collegiate and Prep that warmer climates have where athletes can play baseball all around and do not trade their cleats for skates in the winter time.  Ben Rortvedt, 2016 round 2 from WI, and Dereck McCallum, 2009 Round 4 from the University of Minnesota, being their highest upper midwest draft picks, and even-though the book might still be out on the former, the latter left baseball after three disappointing professional seasons.  This year's upper Midwest player with a lot of helium is Sam Carlson, from Burnsville, MN.  Will the Twins sign him if he is available with pick number 35 over the aforementioned more talented LHP Seth Romero who has been successful against better competition and is more MLB-ready?   We will see.

5. When will the Twins go after hitters?   The conventional wisdom is that teams should draft the best player available instead of need.  However, "best player" available is horribly subjective, and mostly a guess work, whereas "need" is objective and painful.   And the Twins need arms.  Conventional wisdom also suggests that if the Twins get the best player, they can trade him in a season or two for need, but the Twins have never done that recently.  It will be interesting to see how they will spend their picks number 35 and 37 and whether they will go after a hitter.  Another need in the organization is outfield, there are not many non-project outfielders who can help the Twins in a year or two in this class, assuming that both Adam Haseley (Virginia) and Evan White (Kentucky) are gone by the 35th pick.   If one of them is available, it will be hard to pass.  I would personally go after LHP Seth Romero and a prep pitcher, like RHP Alex Scherff who has a plus fastball and a plus changeup at this point.

Exclusive: Hunter Greene projection

Hunter Greene now:

 

Hunter Greene a bit past his prime:

Yes.  The fact that he looks like Livan Hernandez's kid scares me.

 

Early AL Cy Young Award contenders include a Twins' pitcher

The second week of May is super early to start predicting post-season awards, but Twins' RHP Ervin Santana remains in the top 3 to win the AL Cy Young this season.

Here are the top 5 AL pitchers based on several criteria that Cy Young voters are usually considering:

Wins:

1 Ervin Santana (5)
1 Dylan Bundy (5)
1 Dallas Keuchel (5)
1 Masahiro Tanaka (5)
2 Hector Santiago and 5 more (4)

Innings Pitched:

1 Keuchel (52-2/3)
2 Chris Sale (51-2/3)
3 Carlos Carasco (48-1/3)
4 E. Santana (47)
5 Bundy (45-2/3)
5 Yu Darvish (45-2/3)

ERA:

1 Jason Vargas (1.19)
2 James Paxton (1.43)
3 E. Santana (1.72)
4 Carasco (1.86)
5 Keuchel (1.88)

Strikeouts:

1. Sale (73)
2. Lance McCullers (50)
3. Danny Salazar (49)
4. Chris Archer (48)
5. Carasco (46)
5. Darvish (46)

All the rankings and statistics are from fangraphs  as of 5/10/2017.

As a mater of fact, only Ervin Santana, Dallas Keuchel, and Carlos Carasco place in 3 out of 4 of those categories, and no pitcher places in all 4 categories.

It will be an interesting race to watch.  As a reminder, the last Twins' Cy Young award winner, was eleven years ago, Santana's namesake, Johan, who won the award unanimously.  Will another Santana bring some hardware to the Twin Cities?  We shall find out in about 6 months.  Everything is possible, especially since the Cy Young races have been very close the last few years with last years' almost a virtual tie.  Still very surprising for a team that has started the season (and the last 10 season after the other Santana left) without an "Ace" pitcher. 

Who is the best college pitcher for the Twins with the 1st overall 2017 pick? Ranking J.B. Bukauskas, Alex Faedo, Brendan McKay, and Kyle Wright

The Twins have the first overall selection in the 2017 draft the coming June, and the likely path is that they bypass the Helium and risk associated with Prep LHR/SS Tyler Greene, and will select the best College pitcher available.  Who might that be?  The Twins have been scouting  J.B. Bukauskas, Alex Faedo, Brendan McKay, and Kyle Wright.  Who of them is the best, at least on paper?

Here are their lifetime NCAA stats in several categories, including PE (if not familiar with that measure please look here and here)  The best in a category is indicated with green and the worst with red:

Clearly, Brendan McKay has has the best NCAA career, with Faedo second, mainly because his advantage over walking opponents.

Career is a long time, and usually recent performance is more indicative of future potential, so here is a comparison of their 2017 seasons:

Other than wins and losses and ERA, measurements that are not always the best to use in evaluating pitchers,  McKay has been the best this season, with Faedo losing a step to Bukauskas and Wright rounding up the quarter.

If I were to rank the four pitchers based on objective measurement criteria, the ranking would be:

1. Brendan McKay
2. J.B. Bukauskas
3. Alex Faedo 
4. Kyle Wright

However, this needs to be cross-checked with scouting-based subjective rankings, that take into consideration potential upside based on quality of pitches, personal character and make up, health, etc.

In Baseball America's top 2017 draft prospect rankings, the four rank:

1. Brendan McKay
2. Kyle Wright 
3. JB Bukauskas
4. Alex Faedo

which is also the exact ranking of the four in MLB.com's top draft ranking.

Looking at a mixed objective measurement and scout ranking list, awarding 4,3,2,1 points to players depending on their position in each of those rankings (both the object and subjective), the four would rank as follows (total points in parenthesis.)

1. Brendan McKay (8)
2. JB Bukauskas (5)
3. Kyle Wright (4)
4. Alex Faedo (3)

There you have it.  Brendan McKay is well ahead of the pack, with the other 3 inch by inch and Bukauskas just a hair ahead of Wright because of their 2017 performance. Alex Faedo lags the pack a bit, mainly because of what the scouts think about him.

Who is the Newest Twin: The Twins Trade Ervin Santana for Aroldis Chapman

Not quite.  I was watching the Rochester Red Wings at the Lehigh Valley IronPigs last night, while my phone pinked a message saying that "The Twins Traded Santana for LHP Chapman."  Digging a bit more, I found out that the trade involved the lesser versions of Santana and Chapman, Danny, who has been Designated for Assignment last week, and the Braves minor league free agent Kevin Chapman.   Who is the newest Twin, Kevin Chapman?

Chapman is an interesting story: He was drafted 3 times:  Once after a high school senior, in the 42nd round of the 2006, by Detroit and did not sign.  At that point, Champan, who had been an impressive High School prospect with a plus plus slider, had his stock fall as his velocity did through the season and was finally diagnosed with elbow tendonitis.  The elbow tendonitis became a full blown UCL tear in the University of Florida and he had Tommy John surgery as a Sophomore in 2008.   He was drafted as a draft-eligible sophomore in the 50th round of 2009 by the White Sox and did not sign.  His Junior season in College was a break-through season, and the lefty, was a poor man's Aroldis Chapman with an up to 95 mph fastball,  the return of his devastating slider, and the addition of a very workable change up.  Chapman became the closer in Florida, pitching in 31 games, in the tune of 1.65 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, striking out 9.1 per 9 and walking only 1.4 per nine.  He was drafted by the Kansas City Royals in the 5th round of the 2010 draft, the next season, after starting this professional career at High A Wilmington (Carolina League) was anointed a top 20 prospect in that organization, which was full by top prospects then, by Baseball America that described his slider as the best in the Royals' organization.  He was a closer in waiting, like the other Chapman

But the waiting turned out to be prolonged, mainly because upon turning a pro Chapman lost the command of his pitches, allowing hitters to lay off the slider that now has been mostly in the dirt and sitting on a fastball that now was mostly on the middle of the plate.  In his 2 seasons with the Royals, albeit up to AA in his second season, Chapman allowed more than a hit an inning and about 4 walks per nine despite striking out 13 per 9 in his second season.  At that point the Royals traded him to the fast rebuilding Houston Astros for reserve outfielder Jason Bourgeois and backup catcher Humberto Quintero.   He pitched the next (2012) season with the Astros' AA Corpus Christi Hooks (Texas League) where, as a teammate of current Twins' OF Robbie Grossman, he found some command of his stuff.  Chapman pitched 58 innings in 49 games, allowing only 49 hits and 2 HRs, and despite walking 21, he struck out 50, finishing the season with a 2.64 ERA and 1.40 WHIP; he was declared the Astros' 17th best prospect by Baseball America.

In 2013 he started the season in AAA Oklahoma City, where he has been also effective (45 G, 50-2/3 IP, 42 H, 2 HR, 36 BB, 61K, 3.20 ERA, 1.54 WHIP) that despite the high walk rate that now was up to more than 6 per 9 innings, was called up to the Astros in early August where pitching well enough (25 G, 20-1/3 IP, 13 H, 1 HR, 13 BB, 15K, 1.77 ERA, 1.28 WHIP)  to start next season in Houston.  However behind his 1.77 ERA, the was a 4.28 FIP and a 5.05 xFIP and the driver for his 1.28 WHIP was a .211 BABIP, and after 20 games in 2014 his numbers normalized (21 G, 21-1/3 IP, 22 H, 3 HR, 11 BB, 19K, 4.64 ERA, 1.55 WHIP) and returned to AAA by late April.  He was only to be recalled for a total of 12 games the next 2 seasons by the now competing Astros before he left as a free agent signing a minor league contract with the Braves.  This season he pitched in AAA International League Gwinnett and the early returns look pretty atrocious on the surface:  (9 G, 11-2/3 IP, 14 H, 1 HR, 3 BB, 10K, 7.71 ERA, 1.46 WHIP).  However behind these numbers there is a career low 2.31 BB/9, a 3.67 FIP and career best 3.28 xFIP and an ugly .371 BABIP.  The now 29-year-old's fastball is not where it used to be, but it is a more controllable 90-92 mph, his slider is still effective in the high 70s and his change up, albeit in the mid low 80s, has been move effective than anticipated.

Chapman will live by the strikeout and ground balls (2.7 ground balls per fly ball, a bit above his career average, this season) and die by the walks and fastballs down the middle.  It is too early to tell which version will play for the Red Wings (and maybe if good enough for the Twins) but this is overall a good trade for the Twins, replacing Danny Santana who fell behind Eduardo Escobar and Ahire Adrianza in the majors (and maybe even Tommy Field in AAA) with Chapman who is a serviceable lefty reliever (who will not require a 40-man spot allowing the Twins to keep one free) and can potentially surprise.   Positively.  Even if his first name is not Aroldis. 

Is Twins' 1B Joe Mauer about to have a breakthrough season?

Joe Mauer, the Twins catcher-turned-first baseman because of the effects of a concussion, has just turned 34 years old and the usual pundits came out of the woodwork to say that Mauer is pretty much done.   But is this the case?    Mauer has signed a contract extension on 3/20/2010 up to and including his 2018 season, for $23 million a season.  According to the fangraphs, dollar's value equation, so far Mauer has provided the Twins a $291.3 million dollar value, while the Twins have paid about $150 million dollars, a close 2-1 bargain for the team. It is true that Mauer's performance the last three season has not been in par with his performance at his peak, and the value he has provided to the team has underperformed his contractual pay, which has been a big part of the sports show chatter in Minnesota the last few seasons, in par with the Twins' miserable showing.

But is this about to change?    In the previously mentioned article, the author suggests that "this spring, hitting the ball hard was very much an exception for Mauer, and there has been almost none of that to start the season".  Thankfully, modern technology has provided us with Statcast measures of exit velocity from a hitter's bat.  The up to date data is here.   Sorting by average exit velocity, Twins' fans will be thrilled that Miguel Sano is leading the league in hard hit balls with 98.1 mph, way ahead of the second place Joey Gallo with 95.8 mph.    Scrolling down a bit, once will see the who is who of the leagues power hitters, and tied with Joe Napoli at 90.9 mph, and ahead of sluggers like Bryce Harper, Yoenis Cespedes, Mike Trout, and Edwin Encarnacion among others,  is Twins' own first baseman Joe Mauer.   The average of his average exit velocity the last two seasons (Statcast was not previously available) was 89.8, a full mph plus lower; and average exit velocities are usually depressed early in the season when it is colder.  So that 90.9 mph will likely get higher.

The fact is that, unlike certain perceptions, Joe Mauer is hitting the ball very hard in this young season.  Add to this fact that, unlike the last few seasons,  Mauer's K% is only 7%, and this season has all the makings for a breakthrough season by Mauer.   How is this possible with a .224/.268/.254 slash line?   Looking at the batted ball date, his BABIP is .242 this season.  His career BABIP (that drives his batting average) is .339.  The previous three seasons (down seasons) his BABIP was averaging .317.   If someone assumes a regression to the last 3 season average BABIP, his current .224 batting average  projects to a .293 batting average.   His current isoD that drives OBP is at .044,  and current isoP that drives slugging percentage is at .030, while his last 3 year averages are at .086 and .119 respectively.  This indicates that upon regression to his last 3 (down) seasons, we are looking at a .293/.379/. 412 slash line for Mauer.  This is a .791 OPS something that we have not seen by Mauer since 2013, and this assumes that he will regress to the performance of the last 3 seasons,  not taking into account the dramatic decreases in strikeouts and increase in hard hit balls.  

Can Joe Mauer have an .850 or .900 OPS season for the Twins in 2017?   All the signs say that it is probable, regardless that being his "foreboding" age 34 season.

Who is the newest Twins' pitcher, Nick Tepesch?

In order for the Twins to stop their recent slide, they have started the Rochester shuffle to improve the parent club.  They optioned LHSP Adalberto Mejia to AAA, placed RHP Justin Haley to the 10-day DL, and replaced them by 1B/DH Kennys Vargas and LHRP Buddy Boshers.   After the Tigers' series ended on Sunday, they optioned Boshers to Rochester.  It looks like RHP Nick Tepesch will be his replacement on the 25-man roster; however Tepesch is not on the 40 man roster and the Twins will need to open a space (perhaps by placing LHRP Ryan O'Rourke who has been on the 10-day DL with a flexor mass pronator strain, to the 60-day DL.)

Tepesch is a 6-4, 225 lbs, 28 year old righty from Kansas City, MO.  He was drafted by Boston in the 28th round on the 2007 draft from Blue Springs (MO) High School, but declined to sign and went to the University of Missouri.  There he was a General Architecture major and 2009 Academic All-Big 12 Conference.  Tepesch was at the Missouri bullpen his Freshman season and moved to the rotation his Sophomore and Junior seasons.  As a Collegiate he participated in 55 games (30 starts) pitching 213 innings,  striking out 176 (7.4 K/9) and walking 67 (2.8 BB/9.)  He ended up with ta 1.49 WHIP and 5.11 ERA.  He was drafted by and singed with the Texas Rangers in the 14th round of the 2010 draft, when current Twins' General Manager Thad Levine, was the Rangers' Assistant GM.  Worth mentioning that his signing bonus was over slot, $400,000, roughly 3rd round bonus money, which means that Levine & Co saw something they liked in Tepesch.

Tepesch rose pretty fast in the Texas system, without being a touted prospect, his highest position was 19th at the 2012 Baseball America list.  He started his pro career in 2011 in the Hickory Crawdads of the South Atlantic League (A).  He pitched 138-1/3 innings in 29 games (23 starts), striking out 118 (20.2 K%, 7.7 K/9) and walking 33 (2.2 BB/9, 14.6 K-BB%), with a 4.03 ERA, 4.13 FIP, and 1.30 WHIP (.328 BABIP).  In the 2012 season he jumped up to the Myrtly Beach Pelicans' rotation (Carolina League, high A), pitching well (12 GS, 71-2/3 IP, 59 K, 18 BB, 1.200 WHIP, .307 BABIP, 2.89 ERA, 3.33 FIP) to warrant a promotin to to the Frisco Roughriders' rotation (Texas League, AA) where he help on his own (16 G, 14 GS, 90-1/3 IP, 68 K, 26 BB, 1.362 WHIP, .312, 4.28 ERA, 4.18 FIP).

In 2013, Tepesch moved up another couple levels:  He started the season in the rotation of the AAA Pacific Coast League Round Rock Express where he pitched in only one game before he moved to the Rangers' rotation on April 9th.  There as a 24 year old he appeared in 19 games (17 starts) pitching 93 innings, striking out 76 (18.7 K%, 7.4 K/9) and walking 27 (2.6 BB/9, 12.0 K-BB) finishing with a 4.84 ERA (4.19 FIP) and 1.37 WHIP (.309 BABIP) and a 4-6 record.  During that season he lost 2 months (July and August) with right elbow inflammation, and return for a start and 2 relief appearances in September.   In 2014 he started the season in Round Rock where he pitched very well (7 GS, 45-2/3 IP, 41 K, 9 BB, 0.985 WHIP, .280 BABIP, 1.58 ERA, 2.91 FIP.)  He was promoted to the bigs on May 14.  His second stint with the Rangers was similar to his first (23 G, 22 GS, 126 IP, 56 K, 44 BB, 1.365 WHIP, .272 BABIP, 4.36 ERA, 5.01 FIP.)  He lost all of the 2015 season with elbow inflammation and thorachic outlet syndrom surgery, spent the 2016 season in the AAA clubs of the Rangers, Athletics, Royals, and Dodgers, before making a single emergency start with the Dodgers on September. 

The Twins signed him to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training and assigned him to AAA Rochester where he made 3 starts (18 IP, 4 BB, 17 K, 2.00 ERA, 2.06 FIP, 1.33 WHIP, .364 BABIP)   He had an opt-out clause on June 1st, so the Twins could have waited another month.  Tepesch has a 87-90 mph fastball, a mid 80s slider/cutter and a high 70s curve ball.  His fastball is an average pitch, but his slider/cutter is close to plus and is his bread and butter pitch.  He uses the curve as a change of pace pitch.  Good command and control of all of his pitches. In 2012 BA said that he had the best slider and the best control in the Texas system.

Tepesch looks like he will move into the role that Haley vacated for the Twins, as a long reliever, and might be in the discussion for the potential fifth starter spot, when it opens on May 6th.  Not an overwhelming pitcher, but someone who can eat innings especially after a short start or during extra innings.